Jake Odorizzi, What's going on w/ him?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Blech. That’s not a great deal for Jake. I’d sign him at that price in a heartbeat.

What do you think "that price" is? It's still a little unclear to me, with that contract structure! Sounds like it could effectively be be close to 2/30, and maybe 3/39 if he exercised the option (which would put it right at the MLBTR predicted contract).

 

Cot's has it listed now as follows:

 

 

 

2 years/$20.25M (2021-22), plus 2023 player option
$6M signing bonus
21:$6M, 22:$5M, 23:$6.5M player option ($3.25M buyout)
2021-22 performance may increase 2023 option to $12.5M and buyout to $6.25M
2022 performance bonuses: $500,000 for 100 innings pitched. $1M each for 110, 120, 130, 140, 150 IP. $1.25M for 160 IP.

 

But that might be missing a games pitched incentive too, if this tweet is accurate:

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

What do you think "that price" is? It's still a little unclear to me, with that contract structure! Sounds like it could effectively be be close to 2/30, and maybe 3/39 if he exercised the option (which would put it right at the MLBTR predicted contract).

 

Cot's has it listed now as follows:

 

 

But that might be missing a games pitched incentive too, if this tweet is accurate:

 

The details are unknown but based on the history of incentive-based contracts, the Astros will be getting a very good version of Odorizzi if they end up paying him $15m per year. 

 

And, obviously, that's a best case scenario for everyone involved. As a baseline, I'd eagerly bet on Odo with roughly $10m per year on the line.

[ashbury]

The details are unknown but based on the history of incentive-based contracts, the Astros will be getting a very good version of Odorizzi if they end up paying him $15m per year. 

 

And, obviously, that's a best case scenario for everyone involved. As a baseline, I'd eagerly bet on Odo with roughly $10m per year on the line.

I consider Jake to be a bulldog^* on the mound, and on his good days he can be capable of dominance. I might quarrel with his efficiency (which comes partly from not giving in to batters), but not his tenacity.

 

Unfortunately I fear his physical health may be such, going forward, that no amount of tenacity will overcome. However, if I had thought he was open to an incentive-laden contract like this one, I would have been in favor of trying to keep him too. The idea of $30M for two outstanding years is enticing.

 

I'm still wary of guaranteeing $20M for potentially no performance across two years, though. And a step-up to $24M at 30 appearances across two seasons could be an expensive form of mediocrity combined with unpredictable (physical) availability. I think the Astros would have outbid me.

 

^{* _{OK, a skinny bulldog. Are greyhounds tenacious?}}

 

[MMMordabito]

Now the question is ... what is the over/under on how many pitches Arraez and Polanco can make Jake throw the first time the Twins square off against him?  Hopefully, some fans will be in the stands to catch those souvenirs at the first possible crack at him in June. 

 

Good luck, Jake!

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I consider Jake to be a bulldog^* on the mound, and on his good days he can be capable of dominance. I might quarrel with his efficiency (which comes partly from not giving in to batters), but not his tenacity.

 

Unfortunately I fear his physical health may be such, going forward, that no amount of tenacity will overcome. However, if I had thought he was open to an incentive-laden contract like this one, I would have been in favor of trying to keep him too. The idea of $30M for two outstanding years is enticing.

 

I'm still wary of guaranteeing $20M for potentially no performance across two years, though. And a step-up to $24M at 30 appearances across two seasons could be an expensive form of mediocrity combined with unpredictable (physical) availability. I think the Astros would have outbid me.

 

^{* _{OK, a skinny bulldog. Are greyhounds tenacious?}}
 

What's the specific physical health concern with Odorizzi? He seems like one of the guys that was impacted by the weird 2020 conditions, with a couple minor injuries overtaking the abbreviated season. Really just seemed like bad luck, compounded by a lack of proper spring training/rehab, maybe trying to do too much, too fast to get back in a compressed schedule, etc. But as far as I know, his elbow/shoulder are just fine, and he never missed any significant time in his career before 2020.

 

FWIW, it looks like the innings incentives only apply to 2022 so perhaps the Astros and Odorizzi understand some caution may still be in order for 2021.

[Dodecahedron]

 

What's the specific physical health concern with Odorizzi? He seems like one of the guys that was impacted by the weird 2020 conditions, with a couple minor injuries overtaking the abbreviated season. Really just seemed like bad luck, compounded by a lack of proper spring training/rehab, maybe trying to do too much, too fast to get back in a compressed schedule, etc. 

 

The "bad luck" injuries are concerning to me. Santana, Pavano, Baker had streaks of "bad luck" which ended up being indicative of their bodies being done. Odorizzi's issues seem too familiar to me.

 

Small sample size, sure, but if I were a GM, I would let someone else take on the risk. 

[nicksaviking]

 

The "bad luck" injuries are concerning to me. Santana, Pavano, Baker had streaks of "bad luck" which ended up being indicative of their bodies being done. Odorizzi's issues seem too familiar to me.

 

Small sample size, sure, but if I were a GM, I would let someone else take on the risk. 

 

Yeah, didn't Odorizzi have four disclosed injuries last year? Or maybe even five? Dumb luck or not, it's still all about how his body responds to recovery. He might be just fine, but even healthy, I'm kind of over these multi year deals for this caliber of pitcher.

 

But based on the incentives, I think he did OK. It's interesting to note that the bonuses are based on appearances, not innings pitched which seems to be much more common for starters. That should benefit him considerably if he's healthy.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

It's interesting to note that the bonuses are based on appearances, not innings pitched which seems to be much more common for starters. That should benefit him considerably if he's healthy.

There are actually incentives for both, it appears. Apparently ~$3-4 mil for reaching 30 appearances across 2021-2022, which should be pretty easy as you say, then up to $6.75 mil for innings in 2022 (and they are pretty achievable too). The 3rd year option/buyout somehow goes up with incentives too, not sure how that works.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The "bad luck" injuries are concerning to me. Santana, Pavano, Baker had streaks of "bad luck" which ended up being indicative of their bodies being done. Odorizzi's issues seem too familiar to me.

 

Small sample size, sure, but if I were a GM, I would let someone else take on the risk. 

Ervin Santana and Carl Pavano were 35 and 36 years old, respectively, when they broke down. Scott Baker didn't really have a streak of little "bad luck" injuries either -- he only had one single DL stint in his career, 15 days at the beginning of the 2009 season, before the elbow strain in July 2011 which ultimately ended his time as an effective MLB pitcher.

 

Odorizzi is just turning 31, with a sore back, then a line drive off the chest, then a blister last season, where he didn't have a traditional spring training or rehab assignment and was trying to work his way back quickly in a 2-month sprint.

 

I mean, he's still a pitcher, so I wouldn't bet on him staying healthy. But there doesn't seem to be a lot of specific health concern with Odorizzi relative to his peers.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Yeah, didn't Odorizzi have four disclosed injuries last year? Or maybe even five? Dumb luck or not, it's still all about how his body responds to recovery.

I think it was three: he had a sore back in summer camp so he started the season on the IL for that, came back only to take a line drive off the chest which put him on the IL again, and then when he returned from that, he came up with a blister on his finger.

[ashbury]

What's the specific physical health concern with Odorizzi?

He lost time in both '19 and '20 with a finger blister issue, and my lasting image of him is of him looking at his hand between pitches repeatedly, I think even in games where he didn't come out. I thought there was also an instance of a split fingernail, but maybe I mis-heard or I mis-rememeberd or it wound up being one of the blister incidents.

 

I probably shouldn't have used the vague term "health." But an issue with a finger that suffers hard use 100 times a game could be debilitating for a pitcher, and apparently has been for him. It is commonplace to make fun of players who "are out with a hangnail," but as I said at the outset I don't think Jake is weak in the slightest.

 

And I'd back off from bringing this up (again) except that apparently no MLB club was willing to give him the guaranteed contract he'd been seeking. So that suggests a majority of teams are looking askance at something. The finger is my guess. Perhaps the intercostal strain.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

He lost time in both '19 and '20 with a finger blister issue, and my lasting image of him is of him looking at his hand between pitches repeatedly, I think even in games where he didn't come out. I thought there was also an instance of a split fingernail, but maybe I mis-heard or I mis-rememeberd or it wound up being one of the blister incidents.

 

I probably shouldn't have used the vague term "health." But an issue with a finger that suffers hard use 100 times a game could be debilitating for a pitcher, and apparently has been for him. It is commonplace to make fun of players who "are out with a hangnail," but as I said at the outset I don't think Jake is weak in the slightest.

 

And I'd back off from bringing this up (again) except that apparently no MLB club was willing to give him the guaranteed contract he'd been seeking. So that suggests a majority of teams are looking askance at something. The finger is my guess. Perhaps the intercostal strain.

I know Rich Hill managed blisters for a few years. Kept him from making 30 starts a year but it didn't really knock him out.

 

I think Odorizzi's market was more influenced by 2020 generalities than specific concerns about his health. It's hard to commit a multi-year deal to a pitcher who basically missed the previous season, even if wasn't due to any arm trouble. That's why Stroman took the QO, why Quintana only got 1/8, etc. Odorizzi probably could have had a guaranteed 1 year deal earlier like those other guys, but for whatever reason he was apparently trying to get multiple years. (Stroman still had the QO available, and Quintana just finished a long-term deal, so it was probably easier for them to accept a 1-year deal.)

 

To his credit, Odorizzi did eventually manage to get that multi-year deal (with incentives) from a clear contender -- seemed like he was pretty bummed about not pitching in the 2020 postseason and that may have been another factor for him too. He probably could have signed earlier if he was willing to take this deal from a less competitive club.

[jkcarew]

Odorizzi might prove worth this and more from a strictly cost/WAR, etc.

 

But I’ll take my chances with someone who gets through his two trips through the batting order in less than 3 hours and 200 pitches...someone willing to throw strike one on the first pitch and strike two before ball two, just occasionally. He kills the entertainment value of watching the Twins play when in the field...to as great a degree as anyone I can remember pitching for the club. Made Kyle Gibson look like Roger Clemens in terms of attacking the strike zone. And then there’s his pace. Truly painful, IMO. But good luck to him, he can be effective in this unique ‘short-starts-that-last-forever’ manner that he’s perfected. But, especially good luck to the Astros fans...and fielders...that will be watching it.

[Dodecahedron]

 

Ervin Santana 

 

I meant the other Santana.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I meant the other Santana.

Danny?

 

Johan didn't have anything remotely like a series of "bad luck" injuries until after his first shoulder surgery in 2010 (which was the far greater indicator that his pitching career was winding down).

[Dodecahedron]

Santana had a comedy of injuries.

 

Pecs

Shoulder

Shoulder again

Achilles tendon
Toe infection

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Santana had a comedy of injuries.

 

Pecs

Shoulder

Shoulder again

Achilles tendon
Toe infection

When? He missed the last month of 2009 with bone chips in his elbow -- basically his first missed action in 8 years? -- then his next missed start was September 2010 due to shoulder surgery.

 

If those other injuries you mention came after his shoulder surgery, I think you're missing the forest for the trees. A guy who had shoulder surgery is not at all similar to where Odorizzi is right now, health-wise.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Santana had a comedy of injuries.

 

Pecs

Shoulder

Shoulder again

Achilles tendon

Toe infection

Huh? Johan started 30+ games five seasons in a row, all of the five seasons he was a full time starter in Minnesota. He even led the league in starts twice during that time.

[Dodecahedron]

 

Huh? Johan started 30+ games five seasons in a row, all of the five seasons he was a full time starter in Minnesota. He even led the league in starts twice during that time.

 

I did not say anything about Minnesota. I'm talking about pitchers whose bodies broke down with a variety of unrelated injuries.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I did not say anything about Minnesota. I'm talking about pitchers whose bodies broke down with a variety of unrelated injuries.

Ah, okay. But I'm not sure Johan broke down from a "variety" of injuries. The way I remember it, there was one major injury and he never recovered from it.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Best as I can figure, this was the Johan injury timeline:

 

- Immediately after the 2008 season, his first with the Mets, Johan had knee surgery to repair a torn meniscus. It wasn't considered major -- indeed, the tear likely happened before he threw a shutout to end the season -- and he returned for opening day 2009 as expected.

 

- During 2009 spring training, there was talk of tightness in his elbow, attributed to pitching for Venezuela in the World Baseball Classic (and maybe pushing himself too hard after the aforementioned knee surgery). It was suggested that he might get pushed back from opening day slightly, but as I mentioned above, he didn't.

 

- By late August 2009, though, the elbow had become more of a concern. After his start on August 20, he had surgery to remove bone chips in his elbow (he previously had the same surgery after 2003 with the Twins). This represented his first missed action due to injury since 2001, I think, but again he returned for opening day 2010 as expected. (The Mets were well out of the race at that point in 2009 which perhaps contributed to the decision to not pitch through it any further?)

 

- He made all his starts in 2010 up until September. He left his first September 2010 start after 5 innings due to a pectoral strain, but within a few days, it was announced that he had indeed torn the anterior capsule of his pitching shoulder (near his pectoral muscles, to be fair) and would undergo surgery. At the time, it was hoped he would return in 2011, but shoulder rehab setbacks pushed that back to 2012 and he was never really the same.

 

I won't claim that he suffered no other ailments during this time, but it seems likely that it was the gradual degeneration of his pitching shoulder, and the related efforts to compensate over several years, that broke him down, rather than a "variety of unrelated injuries" comparable to Odorizzi's as of now.

[nicksaviking]

 

Ah, okay. But I'm not sure Johan broke down from a "variety" of injuries. The way I remember it, there was one major injury and he never recovered from it.

 

That 130 pitch no hitter for the Mets crushed his career.

 

I still don't know why his career ending injury didn't gete the Sandy Koufax/Kirby Puckett treatment. He was well on his way to a HOF career. If that no hitter had been his final game instead of him trying to push through the end of that season, the epic-ness of it would have framed what just happened in a more accurate light.

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

That 130 pitch no hitter for the Mets crushed his career.

 

I still don't know why his career ending injury didn't gete the Sandy Koufax/Kirby Puckett treatment. He was well on his way to a HOF career. If that no hitter had been his final game instead of him trying to push through the end of that season, the epic-ness of it would have framed what just happened in a more accurate light.

I don't think that game truly broke him. It was 134 pitches, pretty evenly distributed over 9 innings. His biggest struggle was the second inning (24 pitches), otherwise he was cruising:

 

 

The truth is, Johan started breaking as soon as he went to the Mets in 2008. I think something was going on with that shoulder that saw his velocity drop, his release point fluctuate, his K rate drop, etc. He was still a great pitcher so he found a way to be successful for a few more years, but I don't think he ever really addressed the problem, hence the shoulder surgery, the trouble in rehab, and then the second shoulder surgery not long after his return.

 

His outcome wasn't going to be substantially different if he was pulled after 7 innings that day. Not to blame the Mets too much, but he may have benefitted from different coaching during that time, and/or access to the technology available to pitchers today.

 

That said, he deserved better in HOF voting, even if he didn't quite have the foresight to retire that Koufax did.