Hot Stove Time Machine

[biggentleben]

Didn't you know, playing the outfield is simple...

 

So simple a caveman can do it:

 

 

[johnnydakota]

Joe Mauer was a #1 pick from the local area...and you're comparing numbers from a catcher as opposed to an OF.

 

What do those two things have anything to do with the topic at hand?

 

Yes, Mike Trout would be in the majors by now with the Twins (assuming he produced similarly in the minors-plus no injuries), it's really not that difficult of a concept. The Twins front office isn't the bumbling bunch of idiots that geniuses like Thrylos and others on this board try to make them out to be.

yes they are.... plain and simple

[ThePuck]

I think this is a valid question and I also think that history shows the Twins are far more conservative than EVERY other team at promoting their players. Those that argue are ignoring the facts - see this study from Baseball Prospectus: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=13018. From 2001-2009 Twins led the major leagues in time spent in the minors among it's major leaguers... Twins Major Leaguers had an average of 200 more at bats in the minors than any other team in all of baseball. There were only 2 teams with more IP per pitcher in the minors than the Twins.

 

This goes beyond a minor anomaly, it's a trend. Now we can argue about whether the Twins are right and everyone else is wrong all you want, but the fact remains the Twins are very conservative at promoting players. The occasional exception with a Mauer or Puckett is just that an exception. I happen to think that you can harm a players growth by promoting him too slowly, as much as you can by promoting him too quickly. Trout may have been an exception based upon his minor league performance, but it would have been a rare one. With the recent lack of success coming out of the Twins minor league organization, isn't it time to re-think things and find a better way?

 

Now, can we put to rest the notion that the Twins don't promote their players slowly? Our do we add this to the statistical facts that so many want to ignore, like strikeouts don't matter as long as the pitcher gets outs?

 

Interesting

[darin617]

So how about instead of a time machine theory how about spending some big money to get someone who can actually scout and evaluate players so we could draft better. Throw some insane money at the scouts of Tampa or San Francisco, just the first 2 teams I thought of that always seem to develop young talent.

[TwinsFanInPhilly]

I think this is a valid question and I also think that history shows the Twins are far more conservative than EVERY other team at promoting their players. Those that argue are ignoring the facts - see this study from Baseball Prospectus: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=13018. From 2001-2009 Twins led the major leagues in time spent in the minors among it's major leaguers... Twins Major Leaguers had an average of 200 more at bats in the minors than any other team in all of baseball. There were only 2 teams with more IP per pitcher in the minors than the Twins.

 

This goes beyond a minor anomaly, it's a trend. Now we can argue about whether the Twins are right and everyone else is wrong all you want, but the fact remains the Twins are very conservative at promoting players. The occasional exception with a Mauer or Puckett is just that an exception. I happen to think that you can harm a players growth by promoting him too slowly, as much as you can by promoting him too quickly. Trout may have been an exception based upon his minor league performance, but it would have been a rare one. With the recent lack of success coming out of the Twins minor league organization, isn't it time to re-think things and find a better way?

 

Now, can we put to rest the notion that the Twins don't promote their players slowly? Our do we add this to the statistical facts that so many want to ignore, like strikeouts don't matter as long as the pitcher gets outs?

 

So you have no evidence that slow is bad?

[righty8383]

Joe Mauer was a #1 pick from the local area...and you're comparing numbers from a catcher as opposed to an OF.

 

What do those two things have anything to do with the topic at hand?

 

Yes, Mike Trout would be in the majors by now with the Twins (assuming he produced similarly in the minors-plus no injuries), it's really not that difficult of a concept. The Twins front office isn't the bumbling bunch of idiots that geniuses like Thrylos and others on this board try to make them out to be.

yes they are.... plain and simple

 

You're the one who thinks that Ken Griffey jr would not have made the bigs until he was 25 if he was a member of the Twins, so you're opinion on this subject is pretty much worthless as far as I'm concerned.

[twinsnorth49]

All sorts of "We could have had" players out there. Don't get too hard on the Twins drafting, Oakland hasn't drafted a player that latter had a + WAR in the majors since 2006. The players from 06 were all traded, too. The same for Boston with Bill James to help them. The Yankees have less in numbers produced than the Twins since 2000. The SABR people do no better than the money people. In 2005 Tampa Bay drafted Longoria and Hellickson. 2006, they got Price and Jennings. Not much help since then either.

 

Bringing it up again because they're so lauded in their development, but the Rays have not drafted a player that's made the major leagues since 2008, and they're the only team in baseball that can say that.

 

So how about instead of a time machine theory how about spending some big money to get someone who can actually scout and evaluate players so we could draft better. Throw some insane money at the scouts of Tampa or San Francisco, just the first 2 teams I thought of that always seem to develop young talent.

 

See above, how would that help?

[old nurse]

I think this is a valid question and I also think that history shows the Twins are far more conservative than EVERY other team at promoting their players. Those that argue are ignoring the facts - see this study from Baseball Prospectus: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=13018.

 

 

Interesting

 

Do the Twins draft/sign more high school and international players than other organizations? That would skew the numbers up for time of service. Do the Twins stick longer with pitchers trying to make them starters before deciding to make them relievers? Those are factors that could make your numbers meaningless.

[ThePuck]

Arcia, the last three years:

 

.375/.424/.672, 14HR, 51 RBI

.291/.335/.531, 13HR, 51 RBI

.320/.388/.539, 17HR, 98 RBI.

 

Those numbers are pretty impressive...he's been in the minors for 5 years...he'll be 22 a month into the season...yet doubtful he'll be in the majors this year...at least not till September.

[whydidnt]

 

Do the Twins draft/sign more high school and international players than other organizations? That would skew the numbers up for time of service. Do the Twins stick longer with pitchers trying to make them starters before deciding to make them relievers? Those are factors that could make your numbers meaningless.

 

The study was over 10 years, not just a year or two, and the end conclusion agrees with what many respected sites such as BP, Fangraphs, etc. have commented on from time to time which is that the Twins are slow to promote players.If you want to argue with facts feel free, but in this case the facts are what they are. Yes, the items you mention could impact how long a guy is in the minors, but the fact remains guys stay in the minors longer with the Twins than any other team in the league and it's not even close. Other teams also draft high schooler's etc.

 

Like I mentioned, we can argue if it's a good thing or a bad thing, but it's still a thing, and seems like a strange thing to try and twist or debate. If all you want to do is sit here and say the Twins organization is always right and never makes a mistake, I wonder why you bother responding to a thread that asks questions such asthis? Seems your mind is already made up, even when statistical reality is presented to you.

 

Further if you think the reason is the Twins draft more young or international players, how about showing some evidence to that fact. Otherwise, hard to say the article I referred to is meaningless. You could do that with ANY statistic, Mauer hit .300 last year, yea but maybe he only faced lousy pitchers, must be a meaningless stat since you didn't compare every pitcher he faced to the rest of what every hitter faced, see where this goes?