Article: Building a Perfect Twins Trade Deadline

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I agree it's fair to quibble with some of those values, but in what universe are the Mets trading Syndergaard for a single top 100 prospect who is missing most of the current season with shoulder issues? Keep in mind, Syndergaard is not an expiring contract, nor are the Mets really rebuilding given their roster. But even if you assume the Mets decided to move Syndergaard right now, I don't see how the Padres would fail to top that offer handily, and probably a few other teams too.

 

Probably a universe where his value is down. I guess the question with Thor is whether or not he can rebound. Given that the Mets think they can contend next year, I doubt Thor is on the market. Wheeler should be. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

Vazquez <—> Gordon/Larnach/Jeffers/Colina/Jax

 

This trade would seem to fail the baseballtradevalues.com test too -- they don't list Colina, but the other 4 guys are about $15 mil short of Vasquez, and I doubt Colina makes up for all that. Subbing Duran (13) for Colina gets it pretty close.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Probably a universe where his value is down. I guess the question with Thor is whether or not he can rebound. Given that the Mets think they can contend next year, I doubt Thor is on the market. Wheeler should be.

If Syndergaard's value is down that much, the Mets don't trade him.

[Doomtints]

 

Can't see Stroman going to the A's as they won't put their top prospects forward for a pitcher. Would like for us to check in on Mike Minor though!

 

The A's have shown they can make moves like this. They can simply trade Stroman away later to get similar prospects back. They've done this before.

However, I think the author might be smoking something. The As don't need starting pitching, they need bullpen arms. If the Twins are not smart, the As will get what the Twins are looking for.

[Otto von Ballpark]

The A's have shown they can make moves like this. They can simply trade Stroman away later to get similar prospects back. They've done this before.

 

However, I think the author might be smoking something. The As don't need starting pitching, they need bullpen arms. If the Twins are not smart, the As will get what the Twins are looking for.

The A's just traded for the shell of Homer Bailey. Montas is out, Manaea and Luzardo are still out. They may need relievers too, but they could also use starters.

[ChrisKnutson]

This trade would seem to fail the baseballtradevalues.com test too -- they don't list Colina, but the other 4 guys are about $15 mil short of Vasquez, and I doubt Colina makes up for all that. Subbing Duran (13) for Colina gets it pretty close.

While the concept of that website may be well thought out, I really question it’s accuracy for rating players.I mean, don’t you think Javier, Jeffers, Sands, Blankenhorn, Diaz, Maciel, Davis, Rijo, Celestino, and Jax all deserve a little higher ratings, and where’s Colina and Winder?

 

Maybe I’m crazy, but shouldn’t Gordon, Larnach, Thorpe, Jeffers, and Jax be enough?? I get that he’s the best reliever available on the market, but it’s not like he’s a frontline starter.

[jkcarew]

 

Giving up that much for Vazquez is obviously gonna hurt, but compared to having to give up any of Lewis, AK, Graterol, Balazovoc, and Duran, I’d say it’s definitely worth it, especially if it’s gonna make us WS favorites.

Adding Vazquez, or even Vazquez and Kennedy doesn't make the Twins WS favorites. For that to be even remotely true, you'd have to assume the Astros, Dodgers, and Yankees do nothing at the deadline to goose their odds further. But, even in that unlikely scenario, it's doubtful the Twins odds would surpass the Astros, and still wouldn't approach the Dodgers.

 

I'm not saying that means you shouldn't do anything...or that aggressiveness isn't warranted. As I mentioned, you probably need to be fairly aggressive just to maintain 'good/decent' odds. 

Edited July 23, 2019 by jkcarew

[Otto von Ballpark]

While the concept of that website may be well thought out, I really question it’s accuracy for rating players.I mean, don’t you think Javier, Jeffers, Sands, Blankenhorn, Diaz, Maciel, Davis, Rijo, Celestino, and Jax all deserve a little higher ratings, and where’s Colina and Winder?

 

Maybe I’m crazy, but shouldn’t Gordon, Larnach, Thorpe, Jeffers, and Jax be enough?? I get that he’s the best reliever available on the market, but it’s not like he’s a frontline starter.

Anything that involves prospect values is going to be fairly subjective, and that site in particular probably isn't as responsive to recent health/performance trends (although there are limits to how much these guys values are going to shift over smaller samples too).

 

Diaz and Blankenhorn probably deserve a boost from this season, but the other guys are far enough away, or still have enough performance questions, that I don't think these ratings are that far off.

 

As for Vasquez, it's hard to value all those years of control. You might be right to only offer so much, but the Pirates might be right to reject it right now too -- he's controlled for so long, they can probably get a similar return a year from now if they want.

 

Edit to add: I think the fact you can make a Vasquez deal work without Lewis, Kirilloff, or Graterol show the reliever discount, as compared to starters.

Edited July 23, 2019 by spycake

[Doomtints]

 

The A's just traded for the shell of Homer Bailey. Montas is out, Manaea and Luzardo are still out. They may need relievers too, but they could also use starters.

 

Good point, I had forgotten about Manaea.

[howeda7]

I'd do the MadBaum/Smith package for anything within reason that doesn't include Lewis/Graterol and then add Ian Kennedy. The Grienke option is intriguing but how many years are left?

Edited July 23, 2019 by howeda7