Star Trib Series on New Era of Analytical Baseball

[Platoon]

The Strib is running a 3 part series on MLB and how it is changing.

 

http://www.startribune.com/are-baseball-analytics-stealing-the-show/488204101/

[Vanimal46]

I've debated this baseball evolution with friends if it's good or bad. Our consensus is it's bad for baseball.

 

They opened up Pandora's box to gather tons of information on a player, and no restrictions on shifting. There are some ridiculous shifts now. Such as having Eduardo Escobar run from 3B to right/center field.

 

Personally I hate the all or nothing approach everyone takes at the plate. It doesn't matter anymore if a player is 5'6" 150 lbs or 6'6" 275 lbs... They're all swinging out of their shoes to hit home runs.

 

If the game keeps evolving like this, I'm not sure if I'll continue being a fan 30 years in the future.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Part 2 of the series is up, and I know we've discussed this topic around here: "MLB fans turning gray while millennials tuning out"

 

http://www.startribune.com/major-league-baseball-fans-turning-gray-while-millennials-tuning-out/488240861/

[nicksaviking]

MLB is dragging it's feet on this for sure. Rules are sacred and shouldn't be tampered with and technology is bad and should be shunned.

 

But then the teams are using the technology to take advantage of the rules or lack thereof. I love the history of baseball, but the sport isn't going to survive if it continues to treat every thought of change as an apocalyptic event. Change isn't good or bad, it's just inevitable. Fans will survive it if we get out in front of it and learn how to adapt our fandom.

 

This is one thing the NFL has on MLB, they aren't shy about changing rules on a whim to make things quicker, safer, more fair or more watchable. Sometimes they work, sometimes they don't, but then they're not shy about changing them back either.

 

[Vanimal46]

MLB is dragging it's feet on this for sure. Rules are sacred and shouldn't be tampered with and technology is bad and should be shunned.

 

But then the teams are using the technology to take advantage of the rules or lack thereof. I love the history of baseball, but the sport isn't going to survive if it continues to treat every thought of change as an apocalyptic event. Change isn't good or bad, it's just inevitable. Fans will survive it if we get out in front of it and learn how to adapt our fandom.

 

This is one thing the NFL has on MLB, they aren't shy about changing rules on a whim to make things quicker, safer, more fair or more watchable. Sometimes they work, sometimes they don't, but then they're not shy about changing them back either.

IMO I think some rules need to be created now that analytics have taken over the game. Such as requiring 4 infielders touching the infield dirt at all times. It's silly to see slow pitch softball like shifts out there.

[Vanimal46]

I've also said this on multiple threads throughout the years. The MLB does a bad job of marketing their stars. It's quite telling when the best player in baseball has 2.5 million Twitter followers compared to LeBron James' 41 million followers.

 

I can't think of one redeeming quality Mike Trout has outside of his play on the field. I'm sure he's a good person that does good things off the field. Tell us about it!

 

LeBron could post a short video of him working out and it's a top story on ESPN. Baseball has nothing even close to that.

[TheLeviathan]

IMO, baseball has done a good job on the technology end of things (in terms of accessibility) relative to other sports, but less so on social media.

 

I'm not sure how you fix the fact that baseball is highly regional, highly cable/TV driven, and most of the dollars are being poured in by aging white guys.

 

I know I've been vocal about it, but those three factors are going to be really hard to overcome unless baseball starts taking the issue seriously.  And not just the people in MLB, the fans of baseball need to accept that change is necessary for their sport or it'll die a slow death.

[nicksaviking]

 

IMO I think some rules need to be created now that analytics have taken over the game. Such as requiring 4 infielders touching the infield dirt at all times. It's silly to see slow pitch softball like shifts out there.

 

That's what I meant to imply if it wasn't clear. If teams adapt to take advantage of the rules, the rules need to adapt to make the game more equitable.

[Parker Hageman]

A week ago I ran a poll on twitter to see what the general vibe about the current game is. If you read mainstream articles and gauge the general chatter on Twitter (or, hell, even in the forums here), there seems to be a lot of vocal people who say they do not like the direction the game is going. Turns out, the results skew toward indifference.

 

A little over a 1,000 people responded. The majority did not care either way about the changes in the game. 

 

 

My personal theory is that baseball's audience is skewing older. The game has changed and the game that one person grew up watching is now different and, as Garth Algar once, said "we fear change". No more bunting, hit & runs and stealing. Defensive shifts all over the place. There are five men in the outfield. Strikeouts by the gallon. Exit velocity reported after every home run. Launch angle debates (and most still don't understand what a launch angle is). The starter coming out before the 3rd time through the lineup. A closer is starting. It's different. 

 

The fact of the matter is the game is not better or worse -- it's just different. 

 

When you juxtapose that against attendance decline or decreased interest from younger fans, it seems like they all are tied together. Attendance is down in cities where teams have tanked or played terrible baseball (Miami, KC, Toronto, Chicago White Sox) but it's up in cities where the teams are winning (New York Yankees, Milwaukee, Houston) -- and these are teams that have embraced the aforementioned changes like never before (tons of shifts, strikeouts and home runs). People are not tuning out because of the changes -- they are tuning out because their teams have either proactively decided to be terrible or have performed terribly. 

 

People say the game has gotten too long. The game is 11 minutes longer on average this season than it was in 1991. No one is actually noticing that difference.

 

There are in-game elements that have caused "inactivity". Pitchers are throwing more pitches per plate appearance (using breaking balls out of the zone and setting up pitches more). I know not everyone will appreciate that aspect of the game but, to me, the pitcher-hitter battle is a thing of beauty and fully part of the action. Pitchers are moving the ball like never before, tunneling pitches and making professional hitters look downright foolish. This comes at a price, however. Fewer balls in play (40 second difference in times between balls in play since the 1990s). More trips to the bullpen (4.25 pitchers used per game in 2018, highest ever). These are issues that causes the game to have a dragging feeling once we get towards the later third of a game. This is an aspect of the game I think could be discussed by MLB. 

 

As far as getting the youth more involved, all sports participation is on the decline. I don't think any decrease in participation has anything to do with the on-field product. Athletic kids are asked to specialize more and more. If they don't specialize, they at least take more sports seasons off after crushing schedules for travel ball. My 12-year-old daughter finished her 3rd season of travel softball. It's a grueling schedule that wipes away a lot of summer weekends. For many, this starts at 8 years old. Over the last two years, I've seen numerous girls decide not to come out anymore. 

 

I don't have any answers and I'm not telling anyone else how they should or shouldn't appreciate the game. You mourn the death of sac bunts? That's fine. You want someone to shorten up and just make contact in 2-strike situations? Great. At some point you have to acknowledge that you can add tons of rules but some elements of the game may never come back. Baseball is a slow moving, organic game that does well adjusting on it's own. When the Rays started using the shifts, it took years for the rest of baseball to follow suit. At some point, a team will find bunting against the shift or acquiring guys who can use the whole field as advantageous. Like a few years ago when sinkers were the crazy, hitters trained to get the pitch low in the zone and we had a home run explosion followed by pitchers favoring four-seam fastballs up in the zone. Eventually, hitters will start to adapt to the lethal breaking balls too. 

 

That's it. That's all. Enjoy the game. Or don't. Be you. 

[Vanimal46]

Twins fans may notice games taking longer...

 

[Parker Hageman]

 

Twins fans may notice games taking longer...

 

That's four minutes shorter than last year's average. Games are actually speeding up! What have you been doing with all your extra time?

[jkcarew]

 

People say the game has gotten too long. The game is 11 minutes longer on average this season than it was in 1991. No one is actually noticing that difference.

 

There are in-game elements that have caused "inactivity". Pitchers are throwing more pitches per plate appearance (using breaking balls out of the zone and setting up pitches more). I know not everyone will appreciate that aspect of the game but, to me, the pitcher-hitter battle is a thing of beauty and fully part of the action. Pitchers are moving the ball like never before, tunneling pitches and making professional hitters look downright foolish. This comes at a price, however. Fewer balls in play (40 second difference in times between balls in play since the 1990s). More trips to the bullpen (4.25 pitchers used per game in 2018, highest ever). These are issues that causes the game to have a dragging feeling once we get towards the later third of a game. This is an aspect of the game I think could be discussed by MLB. 

The game is not going to grow via 'insiders' that played the game and enjoy the technical aspects of the hitter/pitcher match-up.  I grew up with that attitude to watching baseball as well, but even I am not going to be interested in watching 3:15-3:30 games with endless pitching changes and a dearth of balls in play.

 

There are good reasons that the game has become 'different', but I don't see how the outcome is anything other than bad, and needs to be addressed aggressively.

[Vanimal46]

That's four minutes shorter than last year's average. Games are actually speeding up! What have you been doing with all your extra time?

Taking my dog out to the park... And sometimes, well, most times, not watching the game at all!

[bird]

 

If the game keeps evolving like this, I'm not sure if I'll continue being a fan 30 years in the future.

 

30 years, eh?

 

At some point during this stretch, I'll either be listening to the angels sing with Harmon or yelling at Ty Cobb to quit gnashing his damn teeth.

[TheLeviathan]

Parker, do you think a Twitter poll of your followers is a good representation? I lean no on that.

[Vanimal46]

30 years, eh?

 

At some point during this stretch, I'll either be listening to the angels sing with Harmon or yelling at Ty Cobb to quit gnashing his damn teeth.

I refuse to believe this. 30 years from now we'll be able to transfer your conscious to another host body (Westworld style) so you can live forever!

[Parker Hageman]

 

Parker, do you think a Twitter poll of your followers is a good representation? I lean no on that.

 

By no means do I think it is a comprehensive poll but the followers I have have a wide range of interest in baseball. Among baseball fans who follow me (and I'm sure there are plenty who don't follow me that voted in that as well), I'd say it's a good mix and representation of fans.

[nicksaviking]

 

I think too many baseball fans would prefer baseball to be played the same way they've always watched it played and let it die with them as opposed to letting the game evolve into something different so it may continue after we're gone.

 

MLB is looking a lot more like Sears than Amazon right now.

[Mike Sixel]

 

A week ago I ran a poll on twitter to see what the general vibe about the current game is. If you read mainstream articles and gauge the general chatter on Twitter (or, hell, even in the forums here), there seems to be a lot of vocal people who say they do not like the direction the game is going. Turns out, the results skew toward indifference.

 

A little over a 1,000 people responded. The majority did not care either way about the changes in the game. 

 

IMG_1167.jpg

 

My personal theory is that baseball's audience is skewing older. The game has changed and the game that one person grew up watching is now different and, as Garth Algar once, said "we fear change". No more bunting, hit & runs and stealing. Defensive shifts all over the place. There are five men in the outfield. Strikeouts by the gallon. Exit velocity reported after every home run. Launch angle debates (and most still don't understand what a launch angle is). The starter coming out before the 3rd time through the lineup. A closer is starting. It's different. 

 

The fact of the matter is the game is not better or worse -- it's just different. 

 

When you juxtapose that against attendance decline or decreased interest from younger fans, it seems like they all are tied together. Attendance is down in cities where teams have tanked or played terrible baseball (Miami, KC, Toronto, Chicago White Sox) but it's up in cities where the teams are winning (New York Yankees, Milwaukee, Houston) -- and these are teams that have embraced the aforementioned changes like never before (tons of shifts, strikeouts and home runs). People are not tuning out because of the changes -- they are tuning out because their teams have either proactively decided to be terrible or have performed terribly. 

 

People say the game has gotten too long. The game is 11 minutes longer on average this season than it was in 1991. No one is actually noticing that difference.

 

There are in-game elements that have caused "inactivity". Pitchers are throwing more pitches per plate appearance (using breaking balls out of the zone and setting up pitches more). I know not everyone will appreciate that aspect of the game but, to me, the pitcher-hitter battle is a thing of beauty and fully part of the action. Pitchers are moving the ball like never before, tunneling pitches and making professional hitters look downright foolish. This comes at a price, however. Fewer balls in play (40 second difference in times between balls in play since the 1990s). More trips to the bullpen (4.25 pitchers used per game in 2018, highest ever). These are issues that causes the game to have a dragging feeling once we get towards the later third of a game. This is an aspect of the game I think could be discussed by MLB. 

 

As far as getting the youth more involved, all sports participation is on the decline. I don't think any decrease in participation has anything to do with the on-field product. Athletic kids are asked to specialize more and more. If they don't specialize, they at least take more sports seasons off after crushing schedules for travel ball. My 12-year-old daughter finished her 3rd season of travel softball. It's a grueling schedule that wipes away a lot of summer weekends. For many, this starts at 8 years old. Over the last two years, I've seen numerous girls decide not to come out anymore. 

 

I don't have any answers and I'm not telling anyone else how they should or shouldn't appreciate the game. You mourn the death of sac bunts? That's fine. You want someone to shorten up and just make contact in 2-strike situations? Great. At some point you have to acknowledge that you can add tons of rules but some elements of the game may never come back. Baseball is a slow moving, organic game that does well adjusting on it's own. When the Rays started using the shifts, it took years for the rest of baseball to follow suit. At some point, a team will find bunting against the shift or acquiring guys who can use the whole field as advantageous. Like a few years ago when sinkers were the crazy, hitters trained to get the pitch low in the zone and we had a home run explosion followed by pitchers favoring four-seam fastballs up in the zone. Eventually, hitters will start to adapt to the lethal breaking balls too. 

 

That's it. That's all. Enjoy the game. Or don't. Be you. 

 

I don't know....do you have many non-baseball fan Twitter followers? It seems to me asking hardcore fans their opinion isn't going to tell you much.....

[Platoon]

I think the game will evolve, and players who can't really hit HR wil have to adapt to have value. Buts it's going to be a lenghtly process. I truly dislike a lot of what's going on. The strikeouts, the all or nothing fly balls. Something will change. One other aggravation. The feeling that things like launch angles and exit velocity are new or game changing. The ability to describe and quantify them may be, but the knowledge that if you hit a ball off the ground high enough, and hard enough, it would fly over a fence was discovered the day after Abner Doubleday put up the first fence.

[Parker Hageman]

 

I don't know....do you have many non-baseball fan Twitter followers? It seems to me asking hardcore fans their opinion isn't going to tell you much.....

 

I think asking non-baseball fans if they like the changes in the game is a non-starter. 

 

I personally believe if a non-baseball fan is not interested in baseball, no amount of changes will convince that group otherwise. 

[TheLeviathan]

 

I think too many baseball fans would prefer baseball to be played the same way they've always watched it played and let it die with them as opposed to letting the game evolve into something different so it may continue after we're gone.

 

MLB is looking a lot more like Sears than Amazon right now.

 

Pretty much this.  Sears was still profiting for quite a while during their decline, ignoring it for so long made it impossible to recover once the crisis became undeniable.  

 

I hope Parker's survey is right that most baseball fans are fine with major changes, but it's not the changes that are going to make or break the game of baseball.  People aren't going to games because their team is tanking, it's because they have less interest in baseball.  And, more accurately, less interest in paying for baseball.  It's the fact that the majority of the money rolling into the league has a shelf life of about another 20-30 years.  

 

Who fills that gap in 20-30 years?  It won't be this baseball fan, baseball has largely stopped getting money out of my pocket and the numbers say that's pretty common in the 20-45 age bracket.

[Parker Hageman]

People aren't going to games because their team is tanking, it's because they have less interest in baseball.And, more accurately, less interest in paying for baseball.

 

 

MLB reached a new revenue record in 2017 ($10 billion). People are paying for baseball. 

 

I do agree that ballpark prices have pushed away numerous people. Here's the other thing about the attendance decline -- I think MLB teams are fine with *some*. They don't really care about the fans in the cheap seats who may get a popcorn and soda and leave early to get their kids into bed. They want the people paying for the luxury gated community experience who then drop a ton of coin at the bars and restaurants inside the stadium. The cost of a gameday may be prohibitive to the average income family of four but that's a seemingly minor overall per ticket spend inside the gate. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

I think asking non-baseball fans if they like the changes in the game is a non-starter. 

 

I personally believe if a non-baseball fan is not interested in baseball, no amount of changes will convince that group otherwise. 

 

Seems like a dying industry, if you are saying they can't attract new fans. Am I reading this wrong?

[TheLeviathan]

 

MLB reached a new revenue record in 2017 ($10 billion). People are paying for baseball. 

 

I do agree that ballpark prices have pushed away numerous people. Here's the other thing about the attendance decline -- I think MLB teams are fine with *some*. They don't really care about the fans in the cheap seats who may get a popcorn and soda and leave early to get their kids into bed. They want the people paying for the luxury gated community experience who then drop a ton of coin at the bars and restaurants inside the stadium. The cost of a gameday may be prohibitive to the average income family of four but that's a seemingly minor overall per ticket spend inside the gate. 

 

Citing current revenues misses the point.  

[Vanimal46]

Citing current revenues misses the point.

Concur. I would be curious to know how much of that revenue comes from people age 20-40?

 

The only revenue MLB received from me over the last 6 years is MLB.tv... Other than that I go to 1 or 2 AAA games a season.

[Parker Hageman]

 

Seems like a dying industry, if you are saying they can't attract new fans. Am I reading this wrong?

 

I'm not saying that. I'm saying that once you are 15-18 years old (which is the low age end of twitter users), you probably have made a decision on whether or not you will like a sport. 

 

I think there needs to be more youth outreach but I don't know what it is. When I was growing up, I'd watch the Cubs games after I got home from school or during the summer. There was This Week In Baseball on to summarize the current landscape and introduce people to players. I feel like the death of the day games and not having things like TWIB has cut off some of that for the youth market. 

 

One area that baseball seemed to be behind in is the video game world. Madden and NBA2K are wildly popular in that area -- they were the #2 and #4 best-selling games in 2017. MLB's The Show was not on the list (although growing more in annual sales I read). I don't know if it is a chicken and the egg thing -- NFL/NBA are popular among the youth so the sales are high or they are popular among the youth because they produce good video games -- but I think if you can connect more in that market, you will help hook future fans. 

[TheLeviathan]

The Show is an outstanding sports game.  In terms of quality, it is ridiculously good.

 

Perhaps the low sales are, again, an indicator of a deeper problem.  

[Parker Hageman]

 

Citing current revenues misses the point.  

 

Your statement was that people are less interested in paying for baseball. They hit record revenue marks. Someone is interested in (and currently is) paying for baseball. Feel free to elaborate on your statement otherwise I'm going to continue to assume I hit the point.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Your statement was that people are less interested in paying for baseball. They hit record revenue marks. Someone is interested in (and currently is) paying for baseball. Feel free to elaborate on your statement otherwise I'm going to continue to assume I hit the point.

 

My point was about a certain demographics being less interested in paying for baseball.

 

The vast majority of your money coming from 50 and 60 year olds is only sustainable if the next generation will maintain it.  I don't believe it will.