Article: Report From The Fort: How Weak Is The Al Central?

[John Bonnes]

FT MYERS - The question isn’t whether I’m purposely deluding myself. I am. The question is “How much am I deluding myself?” I’m about to find out, using some simple back-of-the-napkin math.

 

I was asked this morning for the 22nd time how many games I think the Twins will win this year. I gave the same answer I've given 21 times:“Mid to high 80s. The AL Central is just so bad. Three teams – the Royals, Tigers and White Sox – are just phoning it in this year. You play each of those teams 19 times, so you figure you go 12-7 against them each and now you’re 15 games above .500 before you start playing the rest of the American League. Even if they give a few back against Cleveland, they’re already an 86 win team. ”

 

It’s simple, but I know it doesn’t ring true. I’m almost surely overestimating, but let’s get an exact number. Just how much does being in the AL Central help the Twins? Let's do a little back-of-the-napkin figuring.

 

Here’s how I’m going to figure it out (in case you want to play along at home):

 

1. I’m going to find out the over/under for each team from Vegas and turn it into a win percentage.

2. I’ll multiply that percentage times the 19 games the Twins play against each one of them. That will give me the average number of times the Twins will win versus the number of times the opponent wins.

 

That seems pretty straight-forward. Here are the results:

 

Download attachment: AL Central.PNG

 

 

I’m not off by SO much. Vegas thinks it’s likely the Twins go about 11-8 versus the trio of downtrodden AL Central teams, ending up about eight games over .500 instead of 15. Then the Twins give back three versus Cleveland, leaving them about 5 games over .500, or on pace for 83-84 wins.

 

Plus, this exercise assumes the Twins are about a .500 team, because that's what Vegas assumes. If they're better than that, then my numbers would be a few games better.

 

Of course, that leaves the rest of the American League to consider, which still has at least three very good teams and fewer bad teams. So tomorrow we’ll look at the Twins overall strength of schedule, and see how well this natural advantage holds up.

 

Click here to view the article

[ewen21]

Houston and NY are pretty stacked.  If we do make the playoffs I would hope that we can make some noise, though.  I keep going back to the 2003 Marlins.  There was a team that had a staff that was no better than this one at the outset of the season, but Dontrelle Willis had a great year and they had Beckett, Pavano and Penny all taking a step forward.  We need one more pitcher, imo.  I don't believe an ace is necessary.  What is needed is for players to peak at the right time.  That is what the Marlins did AND it is what the Royals did as well

[beckmt]

KC might be a little better. Doubt Detroit will get much over 60. We should have a chance. Without a better starting staff, doubt we will go far in the playoffs. Maybe one of the kids steps up.

[mikelink45]

I understand that these three teams are poor, but I hesitate to underestimate them.  KC is plugging holes and might have a chip on its collective shoulder.  They have never been a team of superstars, just players to worked really well together - remember that even in their best years projections underestimated their win totals.  Maybe Ned Yost is more of a genius than everyone gives him credit for.

 

Detroit has Gardy - what else do they need?

 

The White Sox could be the big surprise.  Let their young players catch fire and they may not realize that they are supposed to be bad!  I like young players.  Our surge from the dregs to playoffs came when we let our young prospects step up.

 

My hope for the Twins is that we stop the FA follies and bring up our young arms and let youth lead us to a better record. 

[Doctor Wu]

Yeah, on paper the Twins look like one of the better teams in the division. Cleveland, or course, looks to be THE strongest team in that division, but as mikelink noted, the Chisox could surprise this year, and even KC might have a bit of life left in them. That's the beauty of baseball. who the hell knows what's gonna happen. But I can't wait to find out!

[TKGuy]

There is no reason the Twins should not win 90 games in my opinion. People are giving KC, Det and Chicago too much credit, by the trade deadline, they will be a AAA team. I'll take our lineup against the Indians, just depends on the starting staff, where Cleveland has the distinct edge, but injuries could play a part also. I will be disappointed if we don't challenge for the division crown,

[gunnarthor]

I actually think Cleveland is due a rough season. They've had two straight killer post-seasons. They lost their emotional leader. Their rotation was pretty healthy last year (only used 7 starters).

[Old Twins Cap]

 

I actually think Cleveland is due a rough season. They've had two straight killer post-seasons. They lost their emotional leader. Their rotation was pretty healthy last year (only used 7 starters).

 

You never really know in baseball, other than, it's hard to repeat. In Cleveland's case, it's hard to repeat what you repeated.

 

For the Twins, either their young guys take another step toward being stellar professionals, or they languish in the realm of ... maybe, could be, potential. 

 

That's what this year is about. 

 

We either are holding winning cards, and they play through, or, we have questions, doubts, injuries, insecurities -- and, more questions.