He has the name, but can Zack punch like the "Duke"?

[DocBauer]

With all the discussion regarding upgrades, moves made, not made, and especially roster construction, I have found myself more and more curious about Zack Duke and what his signing brings. There has been a lot of talk about Rodney and Reed, 2 of 3 of Duffey, Pressly and Busentiz, as well as the hard throwing milb arms "lost" one way or another. And it just seems to me Duke has been written in without much thought or discussion. Is it simply a short 2017 and being 34 and not an in house prospect? Or has all the other moves/losses/in house conversation allowed him to slip through the cracks?

 

I'm very hopeful about Jay and Moya, and haven't given up hope for Melotakis yet. I also like Rogers a lot, relatively young and inexperienced and still solid with room to still improve, (especially when not overexposed). But I decided to take a closer look at Duke and what he may bring. I admit, I was a bit surprised at some of what I saw. Overall, his transition from SP to RP began in 2011 with limited results and even appearances. But his transition seemed to really take hold and blossom in 2014 with the Brewers, and continued in 2015 with the Dirty Sox, and 2016 split between the Nasty Hose and Cardinals before a brief 2017 with the Birds.

 

Focusing on just a few key statistics, this is what I found:

 

Year ERA BA WHIP K/9 BB/9 IP

 

2014 2.45 .223 1.13 11.35 2.61 58.2

2015 3.41 .218 1.30 9.79 4.75 60.2

2016* 2.36 .217 1.26 10.03 4.28 61

2017** 3.93 .197 1.04 5.89 2.95 18.1

 

*: Split between CWS and Stl

**: SSS

 

Now, 2017 is a very SSS due to injury, and there is a major drop off in SO/9. And yet, despite, again, the extreme SSS, the other numbers hold strong. Ignoring 2017 all together, we see BB/9 numbers that don't excite anyone, but they are mitigated by BA against and 10SO/per 9 that produce solid WHiP numbers.

 

Next, I looked at his numbers vs RH batters over the same time frame via FanGraphs. (Note: No ERA presented that I could find).

 

Year BA WHIP K/9 BB/9 IP

 

2014 .240 1.18 10.30 2.23 32.1

2015 .239 1.37 9.34 4.29 35.2

2016 .198 1.40 10.43 6.15 33.2

2017 .148 .91 7.04 3.52 18.1

 

You might have to look at those numbers a second time. I know I did. There are some interesting discrepancies there. Not uncommon to be sure, but 3 of the 4 seasons, he faced RH hitters more than LH hitters. While his BB rates are nothing to be excited about, his SO rates are. His BA against is quality, even vs RH hitters, and even better in 2 of the season's, with 2017 being the SSS outlier as mentioned.

 

What does it all mean? Well, there are a couple concerns, such as the BB per 9 numbers, and him coming off a very abbreviated 2017, but overall, he's been a big SO RP who has fared quite well against RH batters over the past 3+ seasons. Allowing for good health, he is not simply some veteran LOOGY brought onboard. He has a very viable history of success over the past few seasons to suggest he should be counted on as a viable upgrade to the pen in 2018.

[Craig Arko]

[Doctor Wu]

I'll be curious --- and hopeful --- to see how Duke does also. Reading about him, and how he uses different arm angles when pitching, makes me think he'll have the ability to fool a lot of batters.

[notoriousgod71]

This guy threw at his own kid in a father-son game.

[Otto von Ballpark]

This guy threw at his own kid in a father-son game.

Clu Haywood would really balance our lineup nicely too!

[Han Joelo]

 

I used to drive between Boise and Seattle a bunch.  Somewhere in the high desert nothingness between the Blue Mountains of Oregon and the Cascades of Washington, around Pendleton, there is a random offramp to a sagebrush wilderness called McClintock/Lorenzen Road.  Every time I passed it, I'd spend the next half hour reciting dialog from a made-up Western.  In my movie, though, McClintock was the evil Scottish land baron, and Lorenzen was an Eastwood-esque drifter.  My McClintock accent was mostly taken from Mike Myers angry Scot from the SNL skit "All Things Scottish," a character that later resurfaced in "So I Married An Axe Murderer."  The Lorenzen character was pure Eastwood smooth-growl.

 

How does this relate to Duke?  Well, it doesn't.  Except maybe in that Duke, a one time fourth-best overall prospect (in the Carolina League) has since seen his star dim, and "drifted" from town to town, a hired-gun who has signed on to defend our friendly hometown nine against the Evil Land Barons. (Ignoring the fact Carl Pohlad might have been an evil land baron type back in the day.)

[adorduan]

Meh, I wasn't too excited about this signing.  Hopefully he has a short leash if he sucks.