Stick a fork in the 2017 Twins

[drjim]

I'm not passing any final judgement on the FO, of course, and I certainly am not co-signing on to any statement of Dave's.

 

But I do think we are in a position right now that highlights some of the FO criticism so far. We made very few additions/changes last winter, and now we are in a position where we're not quite good enough to compete AND we don't have any new assets to cash in. The former is understandable -- we lost 103 games, we were never particularly likely to compete down the stretch in 2017 -- but the latter is puzzling. Why bother with Breslow and Belisle? They were half-measures (at best), the kind of thing the old FO would trot out somewhat aimlessly.

 

Obviously it's still early in the game for them, we'll know a whole lot more by next spring, but it's hard to look at 2017 and not see some opportunity wasted.

Belisle never made sense, but I thought taking a shot on a minor league deal with Breslow was perfectly fine for a team in their situation. They just should have released him much earlier.

 

I do think they planned on a couple more relievers to not get hurt this year.

[Otto von Ballpark]

In addition to Holland, Cahill was a cheap signee last offseason, and Neshek was acquired very cheaply in trade.

 

I would have even accepted a Sergio Romo signing last winter, even though he struggled and has already been dumped by the Giants.  It would have been some kind of attempt to push toward contention in 2017 or at least flipping an asset, without sacrificing the future.

 

Instead it seems like we simply put the vehicle into neutral while we sifted through the last front office's old napkins in the glove compartment...

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Belisle never made sense, but I thought taking a shot on a minor league deal with Breslow was perfectly fine for a team in their situation. They just should have released him much earlier.

I do think they planned on a couple more relievers to not get hurt this year.

Yeah, Breslow or any minor league signing is fine, in theory. It's pretty clear that Breslow never should have even made the roster, though (even when he got acceptable results the first couple months, the team never really wavered from keeping him in a low-leverage short reliever role, which rendered his rostering pointless).

 

The Twins relief prospects had already proven themselves particularly fragile and volatile the past couple of years, though, so I do count that as a demerit against the new FO if they were counting on something else from that group.

[wsnydes]

 

Belisle never made sense, but I thought taking a shot on a minor league deal with Breslow was perfectly fine for a team in their situation. They just should have released him much earlier.

I do think they planned on a couple more relievers to not get hurt this year.

I thought one of those deals made sense, but not both.  Add a veteran for a bit more veteran presence and then roll with the kids to fill out the bullpen.  I agree that they probably didn't plan for so many injuries and I think May going down for the year was probably a pretty big hole in their plans whether he was in the rotation or the bullpen.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

The Twins relief prospects had already proven themselves particularly fragile and volatile the past couple of years, though, so I do count that as a demerit against the new FO if they were counting on something else from that group.

Not only that but the number of Twins relievers coming out of Spring Training who were a virtual lock to perform at or above average levels was literally zero.

 

As it turned out, Kintzler is still truckin', Duffey has turned into a somewhat reliable arm, and Rogers is a (mostly) pleasant surprise but if you can't find room for one reliable arm in a bullpen of seven to eight pitchers, you're simply not trying... like, at all.

[Dantes929]

 

11 years ago (2006) when the Twins came back from being 10.5 in mid august, their winning percentage in mid-august sat at a hair under 60. They finished with a winnning percentage a hair under 60. Basically, they finished the season and made up 10.5 games winning the same percentage of games they had won when down 10.5 games. They didnt surge, they didnt make a run inconsistent with their play when they were down 10.5, they just kept winning at the same pace.

Going from winning 48% in the first 4 months to winning 70% the last two doesnt seem any kind of realistic.

Of course its mathematically possible, but saying since the Dodgers can win at the level so we can too discounts the talent level each team possesses. No to mention discounting the huge difference in talent between this years Twins and the 2006 Twins team.

Well, part of the reason 2006 won at that rate to that point was Liriano had his CY Young level performance which ended in late July (12-2) that year.    No one was thinking an injured Radke, Boof Bonser and 6 ERA levels from Silva, Baker and Garza to go along with Santana would sustain that winning rate.     

 

However, maybe 2009 would be a better comparison.   A pitching staff led by our best starter Nick Blackburn, a 48-50 record and 5 games back in late July.      They weren't too far over .500 in July 2010 either before going 43-22 to end the year.     No one is saying it is going to happen but Punto, Cuddyer, Mauer and Valencia got hot in the final two months and it is not beyond a stretch of imagination that a similar group on this team can do the same.    Of course they can just as easily go 2-10 in there next dozen games.   Its baseball.    I am just saying it is too early to stick a fork in them.   

[nicksaviking]

I've been saying I'll give them a year to evaluate and I've stuck by that. They should have a good read by now.

 

This off season I fully expect:

 

#1. Multiple trades to improve the pitching staff long term. They don't have to be huge established stars (but they can be) but they have to make sense, i.e.: no high-contact guys, no rentals, no "he's one of us" PR moves. 

 

#2. See #1 but with free agency.

 

#3. A Miguel Sano extension

 

#4. A new field manager. One who brings open-minded new ideas to the table, not just a guy who will listen to them because his boss told him to.

 

If these things aren't met, then I'm going to reserve the right to criticize.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Has anyone noted yet that the team is 0-3 since DFA'ing Breslow?

[Mike Sixel]

 

Has anyone noted yet that the team is 0-3 since DFA'ing Breslow?

 

that's it, they are missing his mentorship!

[Major League Ready]

 

To rebuild a team requires a lot more than flipping over the roster, which, by the way, has been shown not to work time after time, e.g., Padres. In fact, based on other turnarounds and comments from other management teams, getting players comes last. Changing the internal workings of the system, such as coaching, training methods, health, scouting and game preparation, all must come first. If you put new players into the old processes, outcomes would not be much better. Although getting new players is most easily visible, you have no or little idea what management has done in these areas. Some things have been disclosed, but most managements don't talk about these things in great detail. However, you shouldn't confuse your lack of knowledge of actions as being the same thing as lack of action.

The negative comments in this thread seem to center around not getting a bunch of top flight major league players, particularly pitchers, over the winter, without acknowledging the constraints that were placed on management, the value of not doing a Padres-style trade frenzy, and the lack of naming the actual pitchers that they should have obtained, even in hindsight. TwinsDaily has a free agent tracker. Instead of just complaining, go on it and tell us which deals you would have signed, that you knew at the time were good deals. Greg Holland turned out to be a good deal, but all everyone saw was risk, and Mike Dunn has done OK, but nobody was paying attention to him. Who would you have signed?

 

You hit this one dead center.  We don't get a lot of detail about what has been done in terms of changing practices and process but there was enough reported to make me believe this organiation was a mess.   I think we all have the seen this present itself in the form of poor player development and even player health.  My guess based on various comment Falvey made in interviews is they have done a lot to improve this team long-term.  It just is not in the form of turning over players.