In Defense of Molitor's Monday Bullpen Usage

[HitInAPinch]

 

Here is the other undefendable choice:

 

The Twins' best relievers are:

Tyler Duffey (2.10 ERA, 2.64 FIP, 0.935 WHIP, 9.5 K/9, 5.4 K/BB)  and

Taylor Rogers (3.12 ERA, 3.14 FIP, 1.212 WHIP, 6.8 K/9, 3.3 K/BB)

 

They were about as rested as Belisle and Breslow when things went South with Pressly.

 

How come neither of them was used?

My view is:  once the debacle has started, is it good roster management to put in a rested Duffey or Rogers?  A loss is still a loss, no matter how bad it is.  

 

Or, how about "Live to fight another day".   Yeah, that didn't help me, either... 

[The Wise One]

 

My view is:  once the debacle has started, is it good roster management to put in a rested Duffey or Rogers?  A loss is still a loss, no matter how bad it is.  

 

Or, how about "Live to fight another day".   Yeah, that didn't help me, either... 

At game time Duffey was on pace to pitch 100 innings for the season. You can not call that rested unless he throws with the intensity of the batting practice pitcher. Rodgers was on pace for 90 appearances and has a career l/r split.  getting into overuse territory

[yarnivek1972]

I'm just curious how any manager is supposed to balance his relievers when the bullpen is short on reliable arms to hold a lead. I'm sure Molitor would love to have the option to be more flexible late in close games but that's just not possible right now with what he has available. I think he's done a pretty good job using what he has to get wins that are there. If that's overtaxed the bullpen, it's more due to lack of depth than mismanagement.

Most managers figure out a way to do it without half their relievers going on the DL in the second half of the season.

[wsnydes]

 

I'm just curious how any manager is supposed to balance his relievers when the bullpen is short on reliable arms to hold a lead. I'm sure Molitor would love to have the option to be more flexible late in close games but that's just not possible right now with what he has available. I think he's done a pretty good job using what he has to get wins that are there. If that's overtaxed the bullpen, it's more due to lack of depth than mismanagement.

That's where Rucinski and Wheeler come into play.  They're fresh, the rest of your pen isn't.  A 6 run lead with 6 outs remaining to get is a tailor made situation for emergency call ups.  Use them and spare your taxed bullpen.  If those guys fail and the win is important to you, it's not for me in this case, then you bring in the Pressly's of the world.  They should be your last options, not your first.

 

This isn't hindsight for me.  I've been less worried about the outcome than I am the process.  Molitor simply left himself fewer options for the next game again.  He was in the same situation for a second game needlessly.  He didn't get three of his "best" relievers rest that they needed.  My priorities heading into Monday's game were preserve the bullpen first, win the game second.  Wheeler and/or Rucinski may have gotten shelled and they lose anyway, but I'm okay with that because I preserved the core of my bullpen and I can go after normally Tuesday.

[wsnydes]

 

Most managers figure out a way to do it without half their relievers going on the DL in the second half of the season.

The good ones do anyway.

[drjim]

That's a nice theory, but not sure it's true. About half of the pitchers in baseball end up on the dl at some point. Not sure it varies by the quality of manager.

 

There were about 570 total dl trips last year (pitcher and position player).

 

http://www.baseballheatmaps.com/disabled-list-data/

[yarnivek1972]

That's a nice theory, but not sure it's true. About half of the pitchers in baseball end up on the dl at some point. Not sure it varies by the quality of manager.

 

There were about 570 total dl trips last year (pitcher and position player).

 

http://www.baseballheatmaps.com/disabled-list-data/

How many were relievers in June or later?

 

Those are the ones more reflective of in season overuse. The Twins had 3 last year alone.

[Mike Sixel]

 

At game time Duffey was on pace to pitch 100 innings for the season. You can not call that rested unless he throws with the intensity of the batting practice pitcher. Rodgers was on pace for 90 appearances and has a career l/r split.  getting into overuse territory

 

I don't agree. RPs used to throw 100 pitches all the time. 

 

Look, I don't love how Molitor manages, and yes, some RPs have been over used (not for the year, but in games in a row or close to in a row)......but 100 innings is not horrible usage.

 

As for this game, if you don't trust someone with a 6 run lead, then he shouldn't be on the roster. The bigger issue for me is that it would appear the FO and the manager still are not on the same page.

[drjim]

 

I don't agree. RPs used to throw 100 pitches all the time. 

 

Look, I don't love how Molitor manages, and yes, some RPs have been over used (not for the year, but in games in a row or close to in a row)......but 100 innings is not horrible usage.

 

As for this game, if you don't trust someone with a 6 run lead, then he shouldn't be on the roster. The bigger issue for me is that it would appear the FO and the manager still are not on the same page.

 

What do you base this on? I doubt the FO had any notion those relievers would be used in late innings with the Twins ahead.

[Mike Sixel]

 

What do you base this on? I doubt the FO had any notion those relievers would be used in late innings with the Twins ahead.

 

Look, we disagree. If you can't pitch with a 6 run lead, when the bullpen is supposedly gassed, you shouldn't be up. I base it on that. If you can only be trusted to pitch when your team is down by more than 4 runs, or whatever mark you think, then the FO shouldn't call you up. But, since they did, and we are told they pitching geniuses over and over on this site, they must have felt he could pitch with a 6 run lead. Can't we just disagree with each on this?

[drjim]

 

Look, we disagree. If you can't pitch with a 6 run lead, when the bullpen is supposedly gassed, you shouldn't be up. I base it on that. If you can only be trusted to pitch when your team is down by more than 4 runs, or whatever mark you think, then the FO shouldn't call you up. But, since they did, and we are told they pitching geniuses over and over on this site, they must have felt he could pitch with a 6 run lead. Can't we just disagree with each on this?

 

I asked a question, but it was more a general question to the board. I can't argue with the position that the two guys wouldn't have been successful in that situation, they likely would have closed it out, because giving up 6 runs in two innings is hard. I just don't think that is the role the FO envisioned for either of those pitchers, they were there to eat innings. This is further proven by the fact they sent Rucinski back to AAA right after the game.

 

But why does this mean there is some rift between Molitor and FO? That seems like it would be a pretty big deal, and this is very scant evidence.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I asked a question, but it was more a general question to the board. I can't argue with the position that the two guys wouldn't have been successful in that situation, they likely would have closed it out, because giving up 6 runs in two innings is hard. I just don't think that is the role the FO envisioned for either of those pitchers, they were there to eat innings. This is further proven by the fact they sent Rucinski back to AAA right after the game.

 

But why does this mean there is some rift between Molitor and FO? That seems like it would be a pretty big deal, and this is very scant evidence.

 

I'm not sure "rift" and "appears to not be on the same page (in use of these RPs)" is the same thing....

 

Which, perhaps, I did not make clear.

 

The fact they sent down Rucinski right away isn't exactly a ringing endorsement for bringing him up in the first place, and playing w/o Vargas for 10 days. Seems like a high price to pay.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

To me, demoting Rucinski immediately after the game points more toward the manager and FO not being on the same page that day, than otherwise. Particularly since the game was not close. And a 6 run lead entering the 8th is not a close game, any way you slice it. Like Dave said, no one looks good here.

[drjim]

 

I'm not sure "rift" and "appears to not be on the same page (in use of these RPs)" is the same thing....

 

Which, perhaps, I did not make clear.

 

The fact they sent down Rucinski right away isn't exactly a ringing endorsement for bringing him up in the first place, and playing w/o Vargas for 10 days. Seems like a high price to pay.

 

Fair enough, I used rift as a short hand, means the same thing to me. I just haven't seen any evidence that Molitor and the front office aren't on the same page (as multiple people have suggested, going so far as to say it is enough for Molitor to get fired). Again, that would be a pretty big deal and at least a whisper would have leaked out if that was even close to the case.

 

I don't disagree with the high price of calling up Rucinski, and they obviously wouldn't have done it if they knew Santana would go 7. But they couldn't risk that going in.

[drjim]

 

To me, demoting Rucinski immediately after the game points more toward the manager and FO not being on the same page that day, than otherwise. Particularly since the game was not close. And a 6 run lead entering the 8th is not a close game, any way you slice it. Like Dave said, no one looks good here.

 

I don't see it that way at all. They were desperate to get any arm that cover some innings and he was the best option at Rochester. I don't think the front office thinks all that highly of Rucinski, just a guy they can shuttle back and forth to cover some innings.

 

I don't think this type of bullpen management is all that unique around baseball, you just hope that you are shuffling better relievers.

[wsnydes]

 

What do you base this on? I doubt the FO had any notion those relievers would be used in late innings with the Twins ahead.

Then why promote guys that won't be used?  That's lunacy.  Why waste the plane ticket fare?  What happens if you actually need them?

 

It's interesting to note that the only relievers used yesterday were Boshers and Wheeler.  They were effective enough to hold a 6 run lead.

[yarnivek1972]

I don't agree. RPs used to throw 100 pitches all the time.

 

Look, I don't love how Molitor manages, and yes, some RPs have been over used (not for the year, but in games in a row or close to in a row)......but 100 innings is not horrible usage.

 

As for this game, if you don't trust someone with a 6 run lead, then he shouldn't be on the roster. The bigger issue for me is that it would appear the FO and the manager still are not on the same page.

Starters used to throw upwards of 300 innings every year too. Guess what? They don't anymore. Bemoan it if you will, but the fact is that current pitchers aren't accustomed to that kind of a workload.

[drjim]

 

Then why promote guys that won't be used?  That's lunacy.  Why waste the plane ticket fare?

 

It's interesting to note that the only relievers used yesterday were Boshers and Wheeler.  They were effective enough to hold a 6 run lead.

 

Because it was not a guarantee Santana would go 7 innings, especially against a really good team. They needed arms to eat innings if it was a short start. That is being prudent, not lunacy.

[wsnydes]

 

Because it was not a guarantee Santana would go 7 innings, especially against a really good team. They needed arms to eat innings if it was a short start. That is being prudent, not lunacy.

While a fair point and that is an ok plan heading into the game, a 6 run lead with 6 outs to go is a perfect spot to use one of those guys and rest the remainder of your pen.  There was no need to burn through one let alone three of your primary relievers.  If the idea is that you won't run a guy out there because you don't trust him, then he shouldn't have been called up in the first place.  I could understand your stance a bit more if it were a close game, but that was not the case at all.  The point would still be that a guy that isn't trusted shouldn't be called up in the first place.

 

Clearly we're just going to have agree to disagree.  The differences are philosophical in nature so nothing either of us says is going to change anyone's mind.  I'm fine with that.  

[yarnivek1972]

 

I asked a question, but it was more a general question to the board. I can't argue with the position that the two guys wouldn't have been successful in that situation, they likely would have closed it out, because giving up 6 runs in two innings is hard. I just don't think that is the role the FO envisioned for either of those pitchers, they were there to eat innings. This is further proven by the fact they sent Rucinski back to AAA right after the game.

 

But why does this mean there is some rift between Molitor and FO? That seems like it would be a pretty big deal, and this is very scant evidence.

 

If I am not mistaken, there was some talk this spring about Paul Molitor wanting Nick Tepesch as a starter to begin the season.  That didn't happen.

 

The two MLB relievers that the FO did bring in have been pitching a lot with the team behind, especially in the last month.  I'm guessing that wasn't the role Falvey envisioned for them.  Belisle, specifically, had a two week stretch where he made exactly one appearance.  And that was during the stretch where the Twins played two double headers.  This is THE GUY that Falvey brought in to help the pen.  It was pretty clear of what Molitor thought of Breslow after his first appearance.  He came in to a tie game, gave up a hit to a LHB, got a fly out and then walked a LHB.  He hasn't had a substantially meaningful appearance since.  Yet Falvey keeps him around when it is CLEAR Molitor has zero confidence in him in leverage situations.  Breslow certainly isn't a long man.  What good is a one inning at a time mop up reliever?

 

Falvey brought up Vargas presumably to help protect Sano, help pump up a lagging offense and give Mauer some days off.  Yet Molitor kept doing things like plugging Eduardo Escobar in at DH or even more nonsensically having Escobar pinch hit for Vargas.  I don't want to make this post about Vargas, but I don't imagine Falvey brought him up to be pinch hit FOR by a utility infielder.

 

Has anything been said about some kind of rift?  Of course not.  These are still professionals.  They wouldn't say anything publicly.  But the root of any rift lies in the basic fact that Molitor isn't the guy that Falvey hired and has zero history with.  It's almost unheard of in any sport in this day and age to bring in a new GM and retain the same on field coaching staff.

 

It's entirely possible that for that reason Falvey is making moves designed to make Molitor fail so firing him is easier for the Pohlads.  But do I think Falvey wants to bring in his guy - whoever that might be?  Absolutely.  No doubt in my mind.

[drjim]

 

While a fair point and that is an ok plan heading into the game, a 6 run lead with 6 outs to go is a perfect spot to use one of those guys and rest the remainder of your pen.  There was no need to burn through one let alone three of your primary relievers.  If the idea is that you won't run a guy out there because you don't trust him, then he shouldn't have been called up in the first place.  I could understand your stance a bit more if it were a close game, but that was not the case at all.  The point would still be that a guy that isn't trusted shouldn't be called up in the first place.

 

Clearly we're just going to have agree to disagree.  The differences are philosophical in nature so nothing either of us says is going to change anyone's mind.  I'm fine with that.  

 

I think we'll disagree on usage. I know I'm on the less popular position. What I don't agree with, and is stated often here, were that the three relievers used were especially exhausted at that point. They were all good to go for an inning.

 

All that said, I still don't see how Molitor not using those two guys in the 8th with a lead, who are very marginal guys, symbolizes something bigger between the manager and the front office.

[wavedog]

Taking a slightly different direction in regards to managing relief pitcher question here but did Molitor stay too long with Pressly?    Walk the first batter, hit the next - granted you have a 6 run league and an overworked bullpen so you would give a longer leash than normal but when is it apparent the pitcher does not have it on this day?   Pressly seems to be either good or terrible and it was starting off as the latter on Monday.  My view watching the game real time - I expected one of the call-ups to come in to give the "regular"  guys some rest with a 6 run lead.  In the 8th inning there were a couple of difficult plays that could have been made in the outfield that would have limited the overall damage, but big picture, we do have to improve in the bullpen overall.    Don't want to beat a dead horse but we should have done more in the offseason.   Does not help that for the past 2 years our top young relief prospects have either gotten hurt or are taking longer to develop than we want.    

[drjim]

 

If I am not mistaken, there was some talk this spring about Paul Molitor wanting Nick Tepesch as a starter to begin the season.  That didn't happen.

 

The two MLB relievers that the FO did bring in have been pitching a lot with the team behind, especially in the last month.  I'm guessing that wasn't the role Falvey envisioned for them.  Belisle, specifically, had a two week stretch where he made exactly one appearance.  And that was during the stretch where the Twins played two double headers.  This is THE GUY that Falvey brought in to help the pen.  It was pretty clear of what Molitor thought of Breslow after his first appearance.  He came in to a tie game, gave up a hit to a LHB, got a fly out and then walked a LHB.  He hasn't had a substantially meaningful appearance since.  Yet Falvey keeps him around when it is CLEAR Molitor has zero confidence in him in leverage situations.  Breslow certainly isn't a long man.  What good is a one inning at a time mop up reliever?

 

Falvey brought up Vargas presumably to help protect Sano, help pump up a lagging offense and give Mauer some days off.  Yet Molitor kept doing things like plugging Eduardo Escobar in at DH or even more nonsensically having Escobar pinch hit for Vargas.  I don't want to make this post about Vargas, but I don't imagine Falvey brought him up to be pinch hit FOR by a utility infielder.

 

Has anything been said about some kind of rift?  Of course not.  These are still professionals.  They wouldn't say anything publicly.  But the root of any rift lies in the basic fact that Molitor isn't the guy that Falvey hired and has zero history with.  It's almost unheard of in any sport in this day and age to bring in a new GM and retain the same on field coaching staff.

 

It's entirely possible that for that reason Falvey is making moves designed to make Molitor fail so firing him is easier for the Pohlads.  But do I think Falvey wants to bring in his guy - whoever that might be?  Absolutely.  No doubt in my mind.

 

You really think Falvey thinks that highly of Belisle and Breslow? It was a low dollar and a minor league contract. They were signed to round out the bullpen. He's not a fool, he wouldn't want them in higher leverage innings than others.

 

I wonder a little bit about Vargas, but they were also a little slow to call him up originally and they didn't hesitate to option him back. I think the better explanation is that they know what they have in him.

 

I just really, really, really don't buy that Falvey is making moves to undermine his manager. This is quite the theory though.

[Mike Sixel]

 

You really think Falvey thinks that highly of Belisle and Breslow? It was a low dollar and a minor league contract. They were signed to round out the bullpen. He's not a fool, he wouldn't want them in higher leverage innings than others.

 

I wonder a little bit about Vargas, but they were also a little slow to call him up originally and they didn't hesitate to option him back. I think the better explanation is that they know what they have in him.

 

I just really, really, really don't buy that Falvey is making moves to undermine his manager. This is quite the theory though.

 

I agree, I don't think they are screwing over Molitor, that's just silly.

 

But, they've brought in like 5 pitchers, and all have been bad. Wilk, Rucinski, Breslow, Belisle, Haley (did I miss any?). At some point, you might want to try a different tac.

[wsnydes]

 

I think we'll disagree on usage. I know I'm on the less popular position. What I don't agree with, and is stated often here, were that the three relievers used were especially exhausted at that point. They were all good to go for an inning.

 

All that said, I still don't see how Molitor not using those two guys in the 8th with a lead, who are very marginal guys, symbolizes something bigger between the manager and the front office.

This agree with.  I think it's possible it is a sign, but I don't think there's enough evidence to make that claim at this point.

[drjim]

 

I agree, I don't think they are screwing over Molitor, that's just silly.

 

But, they've brought in like 5 pitchers, and all have been bad. Wilk, Rucinski, Breslow, Belisle, Haley (did I miss any?). At some point, you might want to try a different tac.

 

The front office did a terrible job on the bullpen this offseason. There is a decent chance it ultimately costs them a playoff berth.

 

Part of why I'm "defending" Molitor is the core issue is that he has little to work with. I actually think he has done a pretty good job guiding a mediocre (and that's being generous) pen.

[yarnivek1972]

You really think Falvey thinks that highly of Belisle and Breslow? It was a low dollar and a minor league contract. They were signed to round out the bullpen. He's not a fool, he wouldn't want them in higher leverage innings than others.

 

I wonder a little bit about Vargas, but they were also a little slow to call him up originally and they didn't hesitate to option him back. I think the better explanation is that they know what they have in him.

 

I just really, really, really don't buy that Falvey is making moves to undermine his manager. This is quite the theory though.

I would call it more like John Munch conspiracy speculation, but I still feel on pretty firm ground saying that Falvey wants his guy.

 

I wouldn't say they sent Vargas back without hesitation. I'd say more like a lack of choices.

 

Belisle and Breslow are still 2 and 3 for bullpen salary on the team. It's not much compared with most teams, but that's still the case since you brought up salaries. Regardless of what they are paid, they are still the guys Falvey picked.

[drjim]

 

I would call it more like John Munch conspiracy speculation, but I still feel on pretty firm ground saying that Falvey wants his guy.

I wouldn't say they sent Vargas back without hesitation. I'd say more like a lack of choices.

Belisle and Breslow are still 2 and 3 for bullpen salary on the team. It's not much compared with most teams, but that's still the case since you brought up salaries. Regardless of what they are paid, they are still the guys Falvey picked.

 

I wouldn't be stunned if Falvey replaced Molitor after the season. But if he is open to staff and changes that Falvey wants, wouldn't be too surprising if he stays either.

 

I like Molitor fine, but I wouldn't think much of it if the Twins had a new manager.

[Brandon Warne]

 

Here is the other undefendable choice:

 

The Twins' best relievers are:

Tyler Duffey (2.10 ERA, 2.64 FIP, 0.935 WHIP, 9.5 K/9, 5.4 K/BB)  and

Taylor Rogers (3.12 ERA, 3.14 FIP, 1.212 WHIP, 6.8 K/9, 3.3 K/BB)

 

They were about as rested as Belisle and Breslow when things went South with Pressly.

 

How come neither of them was used?

 

Both were red for Molitor. I.E., told him they couldn't go.

[USAFChief]

I stand by my opinion that failing to use the two relievers brought up specicifically because the entire bullpen was gassed, and then watching those gassed relievers give up a TD and a FG, should have been grounds for immediate dismissal.

 

Still should be.

 

Santana gave them seven and averted a crisis. Molitor then created a new one.