Twins option Mejia to AAA, put Haley on DL

[drjim]

 

I think you're seeing sample size come into play a little.  He started out getting a lot of strikeouts this season.  However, he hasn't recorded a single strikeout in his last 4 outings, covering 5 IP.  Last year at AA, his K per 9 was over 11.

 

Shouldn't that be a cause of concern rather than something to be dismissed? A pitcher who goes 5 ip in AA without a k is going to get smoked in the bigs.

 

Not saying he's dead, but I would think there should be some sustained dominance before they even think of moving him up.

[yarnivek1972]

 

Shouldn't that be a cause of concern rather than something to be dismissed? A pitcher who goes 5 ip in AA without a k is going to get smoked in the bigs.

 

Not saying he's dead, but I would think there should be some sustained dominance before they even think of moving him up.

You mean like an entire season?  You know, like 2016?

 

And no, I don't think 5 innings without a strikeout is overly concerning.  Not when a guy has shown that he can strikeout AA hitters for over 50 IP.

[drjim]

 

Well, what do you think of the data they collected on Berrios last year in the majors? Anyone think they thought that was what they'd get last year when they called him up? 

 

Who knows what they were thinking. Despite good/dominant numbers in AAA, and national suggestions that it was a mistake on par to not calling up Strasburg, they didn't call him up for the stretch run of 2015. They ultimately called him up in 2016, but it was much later than people were clamoring for here and elsewhere.

 

Maybe they know something about Berrios for such tried and true methods of actually watching him game in, game out and not just reading a stat line.

[drjim]

 

You mean like an entire season?  You know, like 2016?

 

He was perfectly solid in 2016. Come and back it up, and he hasn't yet.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Who knows what they were thinking. Despite good/dominant numbers in AAA, and national suggestions that it was a mistake on par to not calling up Strasburg, they didn't call him up for the stretch run of 2015. They ultimately called him up in 2016, but it was much later than people were clamoring for here and elsewhere.

 

Maybe they know something about Berrios for such tried and true methods of actually watching him game in, game out and not just reading a stat line.

 

Of course maybe they do. No one denies that. 

 

I bet the nats wish they had called up Strasburg then, they might have a WS ring. And it didn't help him from getting hurt later, which was the supposed concern.

 

But we are creeping up closely on saying we can't question this, or any, decision. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

 

Maybe they know something about Berrios for such tried and true methods of actually watching him game in, game out and not just reading a stat line.

If so they should trade him immediately before other teams catch on to it.

 

IMO of course

[drjim]

 

Of course maybe they do. No one denies that. 

 

I bet the nats wish they had called up Strasburg then, they might have a WS ring. And it didn't help him from getting hurt later, which was the supposed concern.

 

But we are creeping up closely on saying we can't question this, or any, decision. 

 

I would personally call up Berrios, have been saying as much for a week. I want no part of a Tepesch start.

 

But calling up Melotakis right now would be nuts.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Minor league stats are the worst possible way to evaluate a minor leaguer, except for all the other ways.

 

(paraphrasing Churchill's democracy quote) 

[Otto von Ballpark]

FWIW, Strasburg's issue was a shut down, not a call-up.  He actually made his MLB debut quite quickly, almost exactly 12 months after being drafted.  And he hasn't missed too much time since the shutdown, about 1-2 months each of the last two seasons.

[drjim]

 

FWIW, Strasburg's issue was a shut down, not a call-up.  He actually made his MLB debut quite quickly, almost exactly 12 months after being drafted.  And he hasn't missed too much time since the shutdown, about 1-2 months each of the last two seasons.

 

Yes. It was a shorthand response. 

 

I just remember the comical comment from the Fangraphs writer that compared not calling up Berrios in 2015 to the Nats shutting down Strasburg.

[yarnivek1972]

 

He was perfectly solid in 2016. Come and back it up, and he hasn't yet.

 

 

He's holding opposing batters to .128 batting average.  He's allowed 2 singles since April 14th.  Care to explain how that isn't "backing it up"?  

 

What if he strikes out the side tonight?  He'll have 11 K  in 13 IP.  Would that make you happy?  Sample size.  It matters.

 

His sample size in 2016 was sufficient to prove he was ready for AAA.  That's where he should have been. That is where he belongs now.  Nothing you can type will convince me otherwise.

[drjim]

 

He's holding opposing batters to .128 batting average.  He's allowed 2 singles since April 14th.  Care to explain how that isn't "backing it up"?  

 

What if he strikes out the side tonight?  He'll have 11 K  in 13 IP.  Would that make you happy?  Sample size.  It matters.

 

His sample size in 2016 was sufficient to prove he was ready for AAA.  That's where he should have been. That is where he belongs now.  Nothing you can type will convince me otherwise.

 

AAA vs AA doesn't make a significant difference to me.

 

And he did only pitch 30ish innings last year. I imagine they want to see 15-20 games of dominance before they are too concerned about the level.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I just remember the comical comment from the Fangraphs writer that compared not calling up Berrios in 2015 to the Nats shutting down Strasburg.

It didn't seem so comical at the time, when we were using JR Graham and Ryan O'Rourke (vs RHP!) in key spots during a pennant race.  And Berrios may have fared much better in a few short relief outings in 2015 than he eventually did starting in 2016.

 

The Stasburg decision was obviously worse, but that doesn't mean the Twins decision was good.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Maybe they know something about Berrios for such tried and true methods of actually watching him game in, game out and not just reading a stat line.

Did they royally screw up by calling up Berrios last year then, wasting an option year and a half season of MLB service time?

[howieramone2]

 

that daily lineup was intact when they came (other than maybe Polanco at SS, but he'd be the backup to Escobar). What did the FO add to what was here? 

Sano was made starting 3B, and Rosario and Buxton were not done deals. 

[drjim]

 

Did they royally screw up by calling up Berrios last year then, wasting an option year and a half season of MLB service time?

 

Definitely not. Even if you don't think a guy is ready, it is worth it to give a guy reps when you have a need and/or the season is lost.

 

And I do think they should give him a shot here. I am not defending the decision to go with Tepesch. I don't like it.

[yarnivek1972]

 

AAA vs AA doesn't make a significant difference to me.

 

And he did only pitch 30ish innings last year. I imagine they want to see 15-20 games of dominance before they are too concerned about the level.

 

 

Really?  In what way?  Are you seriously suggesting that the hitters in AAA aren't better than hitters in AA?  AAA is filled with guys that have actually been at the MLB level and some who will still get there.  My guess is that 60% of AAA hitters either have been at the MLB level or will be.  At AA, I'd peg that at 35-40% at BEST.  Even most of the hitters the Twins have at AA are nothing more than org filler.  The Lookouts have Gordon and Wade with MLB full time upside.  Even Vielma projects as a future utility player.  The rest are not very good and actually pretty old for AA.  They have 8 position players that will be at least 25 within the next month.  5 of the Twins starting position players are 25 or younger.  

[mlhouse]

 

The most notable one you are missing is Ervin Santana. Prior to his tenure with the Twins, he was a below league average pitcher in terms of ERA +. Should the Twins also not have signed him? But, that is what happens when an organization consistently fails at developing MLB talent through it's farm system. It is forced to overpay for mediocre retreads.

 

As well as Santana is pitching I would not have signed him, at least not for baseball reasons.  The guy is 34 years old. Maybe they thought the timeline of the team was more advanced but I think that was an illusion.  

 

And, while I agree with teh problem of failing to develop talent, especially when the team has lost so many games the past six seasons that they have been picking in the top 5 of the draft, part of the problem is that the Twins management, both the former and the current, seem to shy away from playing their prospects.  

 

Two examples are Berrios and Chargois.  Maybe they both suck and will never develop as major league pitchers.  But, what else do they ahve to prove in AAA?  Chargois is already 26 years old and has a career 1.19 ERA in AAA and 2.42 in AA.  His AAA K/9 is 10.3 and for every person he walks, he strikes out 4.78.  

 

Berrios is younger, just 23, but he already has 3 years of AAA experience with a 2.54 ERA.  What more does he ahve to prove at that level?

 

What has been lacking is a committment to the young players on this team to develop them at the major league level.  

[drjim]

 

As well as Santana is pitching I would not have signed him, at least not for baseball reasons.  The guy is 34 years old. Maybe they thought the timeline of the team was more advanced but I think that was an illusion.  

 

And, while I agree with teh problem of failing to develop talent, especially when the team has lost so many games the past six seasons that they have been picking in the top 5 of the draft, part of the problem is that the Twins management, both the former and the current, seem to shy away from playing their prospects.  

 

Two examples are Berrios and Chargois.  Maybe they both suck and will never develop as major league pitchers.  But, what else do they ahve to prove in AAA?  Chargois is already 26 years old and has a career 1.19 ERA in AAA and 2.42 in AA.  His AAA K/9 is 10.3 and for every person he walks, he strikes out 4.78.  

 

Berrios is younger, just 23, but he already has 3 years of AAA experience with a 2.54 ERA.  What more does he ahve to prove at that level?

 

What has been lacking is a committment to the young players on this team to develop them at the major league level.  

 

Chargois needs to prove he can stay healthy.

[drjim]

 

Really?  In what way?  Are you seriously suggesting that the hitters in AAA aren't better than hitters in AA?  AAA is filled with guys that have actually been at the MLB level and some who will still get there.  My guess is that 60% of AAA hitters either have been at the MLB level or will be.  At AA, I'd peg that at 35-40% at BEST.  Even most of the hitters the Twins have at AA are nothing more than org filler.  The Lookouts have Gordon and Wade with MLB full time upside.  Even Vielma projects as a future utility player.  The rest are not very good and actually pretty old for AA.  They have 8 position players that will be at least 25 within the next month.  5 of the Twins starting position players are 25 or younger.  

 

I don't think it is much different in total talent. AA generally has better prospects, AAA has more veteran guys/depth players. Probably good to pitch at both levels for some time, but a reliever jumping from AA isn't a huge stretch.

[howieramone2]

 

If Berrios isn't going to be up anytime soon they might as well trade him as it is painfully obvious the new regime loves junk like Tepesch more than Berrios. When do they plan to bring Berrios back to the majors? After the All Star break? As a September call up? For crying out loud Trevor May got more slack as a starter after as disastrous of a rookie campaign as Berrios. They don't have a plan for him to except to rot in Rochester. Then what he becomes as disgruntled as Matt Garza was back in 2007? No matter the FO, they STILL suck at starting pitcher development, this is another case of it.

If Buxton can be allowed to sink or swim Berrios should too.

Berrios had the worst rookie debut of any starting pitcher in the history of the franchise. May had 8 starts and Berrios 14.

[mlhouse]

 

I'm with you on the quality of veterans the Twins have added, but I'd say the prospect problem is 99% a lack of them, 1% a lack of opportunity for the few deserving ones over the past decade.

As I have stated, one of the major issues in rebuilding is finding the 99% and getting the 1% to replace them.  If you fiddle fart around without making commitments it just delays the time in finding the player that will work out.  

 

I point this out over and over again. IN 1982 the original Twins center fielder was Jim Eisenreich.  The Twins promoted Eisenreich from A- baseball with only 1.5 years of minor league experience.  Could you imagine if the Twins then would have followed the path they use with their current prospects like Mitch Garver?  Instead of debuting at 23, he would have been 25-26.  I guess the argument might be maybe he would have overcome his issues, but the real point is that by the time they worked out Eisenreich, it would have been 1987 and Puckett woudl still be waiting his chance behind him, slowly moving through the minors.

 

A guy like Kent Hrbek was brought up to the Twins rfrom A+ ball as a 21 year old.   As a 24 year old in 1984 Hrbek finished 2nd in the MVP balloting.....in the modern Twins system he probably would have been bouncing back and forth between AA and AAA at that age.

[Mike Sixel]

 

As I have stated, one of the major issues in rebuilding is finding the 99% and getting the 1% to replace them.  If you fiddle fart around without making commitments it just delays the time in finding the player that will work out.  

 

I point this out over and over again. IN 1982 the original Twins center fielder was Jim Eisenreich.  The Twins promoted Eisenreich from A- baseball with only 1.5 years of minor league experience.  Could you imagine if the Twins then would have followed the path they use with their current prospects like Mitch Garver?  Instead of debuting at 23, he would have been 25-26.  I guess the argument might be maybe he would have overcome his issues, but the real point is that by the time they worked out Eisenreich, it would have been 1987 and Puckett woudl still be waiting his chance behind him, slowly moving through the minors.

 

A guy like Kent Hrbek was brought up to the Twins rfrom A+ ball as a 21 year old.   As a 24 year old in 1984 Hrbek finished 2nd in the MVP balloting.....in the modern Twins system he probably would have been bouncing back and forth between AA and AAA at that age.

 

preach it.

[mlhouse]

 

I didn't think the bullpen would necessarily be different on May 1. The significant change I thought possible/likely was Chargois, and he's hurt, so no way that's happening. I can't speak for everyone.

 

I want upside guys too, but Chargois is hurt, Melotakis has a k/9 of 6 in AA, and Burdi pitched a total of 3 innings last year, so it's going to take some time with him. There's no one there right now.

 

Try Jason Wheeler or Aaron Siegers.  Try D.J Baxendale or Trevor Hildenberger.  Or David Hurlbut.

 

Every one of those guys, with the exception of SIegers who is 24, is at least 26 years old.  Lets see what we got in these guys and maybe one could be a decent long reliever or spot starter or 5th starter.  

[howieramone2]

 

I'm not necessarily saying right now there needs to be changes (apart from Berrios), what I am arguing is that if you believed on April 1 that the bullpen would be different by May 1, you're moving your goalposts to hide behind "rosters change sometime".

 

And that's fine, but you have to acknowledge that you're moving the target.  And it's important to go back and look at why we wanted changes on April 1st.  I'm not so sure those reasons (low upside, high downside) have changed all that much.  

 

I'd still rather have high upside/high downside than low upside/high downside.  And that appears to me to be the choice right now.

As I recall, when the 25 man roster was announced, a fair number of members had kittens. I heard the other day, our favorite team didn't make a roster change for 16 games, which is a team record. The new regime's roster construction was masterful. Makes no sense to break up a winning team.

[drjim]

 

As I have stated, one of the major issues in rebuilding is finding the 99% and getting the 1% to replace them.  If you fiddle fart around without making commitments it just delays the time in finding the player that will work out.  

 

I point this out over and over again. IN 1982 the original Twins center fielder was Jim Eisenreich.  The Twins promoted Eisenreich from A- baseball with only 1.5 years of minor league experience.  Could you imagine if the Twins then would have followed the path they use with their current prospects like Mitch Garver?  Instead of debuting at 23, he would have been 25-26.  I guess the argument might be maybe he would have overcome his issues, but the real point is that by the time they worked out Eisenreich, it would have been 1987 and Puckett woudl still be waiting his chance behind him, slowly moving through the minors.

 

A guy like Kent Hrbek was brought up to the Twins rfrom A+ ball as a 21 year old.   As a 24 year old in 1984 Hrbek finished 2nd in the MVP balloting.....in the modern Twins system he probably would have been bouncing back and forth between AA and AAA at that age.

 

Player development has changed a little bit in 35 years.

[drjim]

 

Try Jason Wheeler or Aaron Siegers.  Try D.J Baxendale or Trevor Hildenberger.  Or David Hurlbut.

 

Every one of those guys, with the exception of SIegers who is 24, is at least 26 years old.  Lets see what we got in these guys and maybe one could be a decent long reliever or spot starter or 5th starter.  

 

Nothing personal against those guys, but meh.

[FormerMinnasotan]

Berrios had the worst rookie debut of any starting pitcher in the history of the franchise. May had 8 starts and Berrios 14.

Still having him pitch in the minors until the All Star break or longer doesn't make sense. If he looks the part you have to let him sink or swim at sometime. If he isn't going to come up anytime soon then trading him now would make sense because he still has value. Not bringing him up from the minors tells me they have no faith in him when they are happy inserting less talented pitchers in the Twins rotation.

[TheLeviathan]

 

As I recall, when the 25 man roster was announced, a fair number of members had kittens. I heard the other day, our favorite team didn't make a roster change for 16 games, which is a team record. The new regime's roster construction was masterful. Makes no sense to break up a winning team.

 

You know, for someone who has been so wildly wrong (and so often) in their blind faith, I give you credit for continuing to step to the plate.

[howieramone2]

 

Still having him pitch in the minors until the All Star break or longer doesn't make sense. If he looks the part you have to let him sink or swim at sometime. If he isn't going to come up anytime soon then trading him now would make sense because he still has value. Not bringing him up from the minors tells me they have no faith in him when they are happy inserting less talented pitchers in the Twins rotation.

What it tells me is, after he crapped the bed in 2016, they are going to be very careful with him. We have a winning record, no need to rush him at this time.