2017 Twins Sim Results - 75 Wins, 3rd in AL Central

[Teflon]

The following notes are based on autonomously simulating the 2017 MLB season using Out of the Park Baseball 18's A.I.

 

 

 

The Minnesota Twins took two steps up from the cellar in 2017, finishing in 3rd place in the AL Central with a record of 75-86, a 16-win improvement from 2016. Most of the credit goes to the pitching and defense as the Twins finished in the middle of the pack among American League teams in runs allowed in 2017 (784) after having been dead last the season before. Relief pitching (3.61 ERA) and overall defensive efficiency (.692) were both 2nd overall in the AL which offset the still-struggling starting pitching which once again produced the fewest strikeouts in the league and an ERA near 5.

 

 

 

Pitching

The Bad: Ervin Santana was plagued by injuries early in the season and had a number of poor outings, eventually being removed from the starting rotation. High hopes for a Phil Hughes return-to-form never materialized as he only managed 6 starts before a shoulder injury ended his season.  The Twins were forced to leave Hector Santiago in the rotation where he was regularly knocked around. (5.90 ERA) The entire staff was homer-prone giving up 227 long-balls.

The Good: The problems with Santana and Hughes gave Jose Berrios ample opportunities in the rotation and he posted a 12-13 record, 201 K’s in 191 innings, and a .230 opponent’s batting average against. Tyler Duffy also responded well to the opportunities presented, pitching with enough consistency to win 15 games and log 220 innings, both tops on the team. Yohan Pino was a pleasant surprise, going 7-3 in 14 starts after being brought up from Rochester to fill in. Brandon Kintzler was an adequate closer and Felipe Rivero was solid in relief after coming over in a trade with Pittsburgh for Nick Gordon.

 

 

 

Hitting

The Bad:  Jason Castro was limited to 54 games by injury exposing the Twins to more John Ryan Murphy and Mitch Garver than they cared for. This spawned a Kennys Vargas for Derek Norris trade with the Tampa Bay Rays in July as the AI kept Chris Gimenez in Rochester all season. Max Kepler lost a number of games to a herniated disc but Daniel Palka hit a freakish 17 bombs with a 1+ OPS in 180 at-bats after being called up to the big league club, leaving the befuddled AI scratching its head.

The Good:  Brian Dozier duplicated his 2016 performance with 38 HR, 100 runs scored and 109 RBI. Miguel Sano hit 31 HR and drove in 80 runs (and struck out 195 times) in 128 games and was named to his first All-Star game. Ehire Adrianza, splitting time at SS put up .316/.395/.594 slashes in 264 plate appearances. Eddie Rosario had a solid season, hitting .278 with 15 HR and 71 RBI in 126 games. Joe Mauer hit .279 but with 40 doubles, 11 home runs, and a .360 OBP.

 

 

Fielding

The Bad:  Miguel Sano, 19 errors at 3B, -7.6 ZR.

The Good: Byron Buxton – 1st in AL CF Zone Rating, 2nd in defensive efficiency, 2nd in range factor and 2nd in assists. Max Kepler – 1st in AL RF Zone Rating, 1st in Defensive efficiency, and 1st in range factor. Joe Mauer -2nd in AL 1B defensive efficiency, 3rd in zone rating.

 

 

2017 Twins Transactions of note:

Saturday, April 8th – Released RP Craig Breslow

Monday, May 1st - Placed SP Phil Hughes on the 60-day disabled list (Torn rotator cuff)

Tuesday, June 6th – Drafted SP Hunter Greene in the 2017 first-year player draft, first overall (Twins also took SP Bennett Sousa 35th overall and SP Shane Baz, 37th overall)

Wednesday, June 14th – Activated RP Glen Perkins from the 60-day disabled list

Thursday, July 6th – failed to sign 1st round pick Hunter Greene

Friday, July 14th – traded 26-year-old first baseman Kennys Vargas to the Tampa Bay Rays getting 28-year-old C Derek Norris in return

Monday, July 17th – signed international amateur SS Eddys Leonard out of Dominican Republic to a minor league contract with a $1,580,000 signing bonus

Tuesday, July 18th – signed international amateur C Felix Taveras, Jr out of Dominican Republic to a minor league contract with a $2,280,000 signing bonus

Wednesday, July 19th – traded 21-year-old minor league shortstop Nick Gordon to the Pittsburgh Pirates getting 26-year-old closer Felipe Rivero in return

 

 

Other notes:

 

The Twins total attendance in 2017 at Target Field was 1,847,387 which was an average of 22,807 per game, down 3.1% from the previous year.  10,956 season tickets were sold.

 

Records by month

April, 11-14

May, 14-13, 25-27 overall

June, 10-18, 35-45 overall

July, 12-12, 47-57 overall

August, 15-14, 62-71 overall

Sep-Oct , 13-15, 75-86 overall, 3rd place – 24 games behind Cleveland.

 

 

 

Elizabethton won the Appalachian League title, defeating the Bluefield Blue Jays, 3 games to 2.

 

 

 

 

World Series

 

In an all-LA series, the Dodgers defeated the Angels 4 games to 3.

 

Awards - NL Cy Young - Clayton Kershaw; AL Cy Young - Corey Kluber; NL MVP - Bryce Harper; AL MVP - Mike Trout; NL Rookie of the Year - Grant Dayton (Dodgers); AL Rookie of the Year - Dan Vogelback (Mariners)

 

 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

Wowwwwww Kansas City.

[spinowner]

All I had to read to know this was way off the wall was to see the Angels in the WS.

[Danchat]

This is very interesting... I have a few remarks. How do the Angels win their division, get 91 wins, and play in the World Series with that terrible rotation they're employing?

 

Also, trading Nick Gordon for a closer sounds like a really bad idea. Reminds me of a one for one trade that involved an up-and-coming position player for a "proven" closer.

[diehardtwinsfan]

If that stuff happens, they win less than 75...

[Bark's Lounge]

This simulation is a bummer.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Oh, and Hunter Greene would be foolish not to take 1 overall money...  Not like he gets more next year.

[Teflon]

 

This is very interesting... I have a few remarks. How do the Angels win their division, get 91 wins, and play in the World Series with that terrible rotation they're employing?

 

Also, trading Nick Gordon for a closer sounds like a really bad idea. Reminds me of a one for one trade that involved an up-and-coming position player for a "proven" closer.

 

 

Tyler Skaggs went 15-4 for the Angels in the simulation cancelling out Ricky Nolasco's 7-13. Matt Shoemaker and Jesse Chavez were a combined 26-14. Cam Bedrosian saved 37. The pitching only has to be so good with a lineup of Trout, Calhoun and Pujols, I guess.

 

I was shocked to see the Nick Gordon trade, too. The sim drafted Hunter Greene first overall for the Twins and then couldn't sign him - which was a little shocking, too. Don't think the real Twins could survive the criticism if that happened.

[Guest]

Wait - did you remove Park from the roster? Apparently that's a nine loss swing!

[Guest]

Oh, and Hunter Greene would be foolish not to take 1 overall money...  Not like he gets more next year.

If he goes to college, there is no next year; it's three years. He'd have to go to a training "school" and hope he doesn't slide.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Is there precedence for a 1-1 draftee not signing?

 

What's he expect under that scenario? To go as the 0-1 selection the following year?

[Teflon]

And this is what happens in the offseason so far...

 

 

[Teflon]

 

Is there precedence for a 1-1 draftee not signing?

What's he expect under that scenario? To go as the 0-1 selection the following year?

 

JD Drew was a #2 overall and didn't sign with the Phillies. I think that's how he ended up spending a year with the St. Paul Saints.

[prouster]

 

Is there precedence for a 1-1 draftee not signing?

What's he expect under that scenario? To go as the 0-1 selection the following year?

 

There was the Brady Aiken fiasco a few years back.

 

Edit: Our very own Twins failed to sign Tim Belcher after selecting him 1-1 way back in 1983.

[Teflon]

 

Wowwwwww Kansas City.

 

Ian Kennedy, 7-16. Matt Strahm, 8-13. Jason Vargas, 6-10.

 

Jorge Soler - .610 OPS, 212 Ks. Hosmer misses half the season.

[Thrylos]

 

Is there precedence for a 1-1 draftee not signing?

What's he expect under that scenario? To go as the 0-1 selection the following year?

 

The new CBA will make this probability minuscule.

 

Also:  The team that picks 1-1 has the opportunity to already agree on a contract before they draft someone and not not draft someone who is not willing to agree.

 

Olden times were different

[Thrylos]

Boston at 77 wins and Rays at 83?   Alrighty.

[Riverbrian]

OK... I don't know how much more of this type of thing I can take. 

 

Adrianaza hits .316... 11 Dingers... OPS of .918 plus he provides that much needed defense at a key position. 

 

And still... Molitor can only find 228 AB's for him. 

 

 

[Bark's Lounge]

 

JD Drew was a #2 overall and didn't sign with the Phillies. I think that's how he ended up spending a year with the St. Paul Saints.

Travis Lee as well in 1996. He used some loophole or something on not being offered a contract by the Twins by some kind of deadline.

 

I am glad Lee had a mediocre career, Ryan was on the watch on this one - so there is blame to throw all around.

[Guest]

And this is what happens in the offseason so far...

 

If Kintzler pitches that well during the season, he should be traded and Chargois should be brought up to close.

[Teflon]

 

If Kintzler pitches that well during the season, he should be traded and Chargois should be brought up to close.

 

Chargois tore a rotator cuff pitching for the Red Wings in June of 2017 in the sim. Rolling the sim into 2018, the Twins plan to have Felipe Rivero (from the Nick Gordon trade) as closer and use Sammy Solis from the JR Murphy trade with Washington as a set-up guy along with Trevor May.