Article: Central Intelligence: Kansas City Royals

[Nick Nelson]

There was a time when Kansas City's .500 finish in 2016 would have felt like a commendable achievement. It's a modest threshold the franchise had failed to reach in nine consecutive seasons prior to 2013.

 

Of course, coming off two straight World Series appearances, the most recent of which they won, it felt like a let-down. More disappointment may be in store for 2017.Record: 81-81

Runs Scored: 675

Runs Allowed: 712

Pythag W/L: 77-85

Pitching WAR Leader: Danny Duffy

Position WAR Leader: Jarrod Dyson

 

Season Recap

 

In mid-June, the Royals completed a sweep of the Cleveland Indians at Kauffman Stadium to pull into a tie for first place in the division. Soon after, they went into a prolonged slump while the Tribe caught fire, and six weeks later they trailed Cleveland by double digits.

 

KC rebounded with a strong month of August and made a run at a wild-card spot, but then fell into a September funk that dropped them out of contention.

 

The Royals have been a charmed club for quite a while. They handily outperformed their Pythagorean W/L in each of the past three seasons, taking a total of 14 more games than you'd mathematically expect during that span. In 2016 they were fortunate to win as many as they lost while allowing 37 more runs than they scored.

 

In some respects, their strengths are conducive to such outcomes. Their lockdown bullpen gives them an edge in close games, and their consistently elite defensive units help cover up some warts. But no team can run away from the laws of baseball forever, especially with mediocre starting pitching, and in a way Kansas City's late-season swoon felt like a long overdue regression to the mean.

 

The bullpen, as usual, was excellent. Same goes for the defense. But the rotation was a weakness, with no one other than Danny Duffy and Ian Kennedy offering much. The lineup sputtered, scoring just 675 runs and ranking last in the American League in homers. The leader in that category, Kendrys Morales, departed over the winter to join Toronto.

 

Why They'll Be Better

 

Duffy is a legitimate top-of-the-rotation type, and midway through last year the Royals finally made the full commitment to him as a starter. They went 17-9 in his 28 turns after moving him out of the bullpen halfway through May. He's expected to be their Opening Day starter against the Twins on April 3rd after signing a five-year extension in January.

 

While Morales and his powerful bat are gone, the Royals did acquire Jorge Soler from the Cubs, adding some much needed young upside to the offense. They also added free agent Brandon Moss, a reliable source of 20-30 bombs. Mix in the better expected output from Mike Moustakas, Lorenzo Cain and Alex Gordon, whose campaigns were marred by injuries, and the lineup should improve.

 

That last name is particularly vital. Gordon is the beating heart of this team – he led the roster in WAR every year from 2011 through 2014 – and getting him back to a healthy productive state could make a huge difference. Then again, he's now 33 and his K-rate rocketed upward last year, so it's possible that peak-level Gordon won't reappear.

 

Why They'll Be Worse

 

The pitching staff lost two cornerstones during the offseason, and replacing what they brought to the table will prove excruciatingly tough.

 

Davis, who was one of the most dominant and impactful relievers in the game over the past three seasons, went to Chicago in the Soler trade. With Greg Holland leaving for Colorado, Kelvin Herrera is now the only remaining member of a spectacular late-inning trio that helped make KC a championship-caliber club in 2014 and 2015. Herrera will be closing, leaving manager Ned Yost with much less firepower to work with in the sixth, seventh and eighth.

 

And then there was the heartbreaking death of Yordano Ventura, just 25 years old, in January. He endured his worst season as a big-leaguer last year, but Ventura's ace upside was a constant source of vitalizing hope for the Royals rotation. No one will fill the void left by his big personality and intense passion for the game. And his tragic passing also leaves a talent void that newcomers Jason Hammel and Nate Karns can't hope to replenish.

 

Beyond Duffy, there's not too much to like in Kansas City's starting corps. Kennedy is trying to back up his best season in seven years, in which his ERA was a full run lower than his FIP. KC's system lacks any kind of bona fide stud pitching prospects offering the real potential for a midseason jolt.

 

This looks like a rebuilding year for the Royals. There's nothing wrong with that; they had a hell of a run. But it seems far more likely that they will be selling off pieces to bolster a depleted farm system at the deadline than shopping for another postseason push.

 

 

~~~

This is the third in our Central Intelligence series previewing Minnesota's division rivals. Make sure to check out our deep dives on the Cleveland Indians and Detroit Tigers.

 

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[mikelink45]

They really proved the value of defense and bullpen!  Their speed also played big in ways that metrics cannot measure.  When they got someone on the other team got an extra degree of nervousness and that causes problems.  It is what I hope Buxton, Polanco, Kepler, Rosario do for the Twins.

[Vanimal46]

Their starting pitching is a detriment to the team, and I don't think their bullpen can make up for average starting pitching anymore.

 

It will be interesting to see who they sell off in July. When you add up the sum of all their parts, it sounds like a good lineup... But on their own, is Hosmer that good? Moustakas? Gordon?  

[Tom Froemming]

I think a lot depends on what kind of a start they get off to. Bad start, they'll probably have a fire sale. Good start, they may try to make one last run with this group of players.

 

What's interesting is the Twins will have a big impact on that start. They play 12 times before the Fourth of July. 

[Vanimal46]

 

I think a lot depends on what kind of a start they get off to. Bad start, they'll probably have a fire sale. Good start, they may try to make one last run with this group of players.

 

What's interesting is the Twins will have a big impact on that start. They play 12 times before the Fourth of July. 

 

Yeah I could see that too. They're going to have a couple of down years anyway. Might as well see if they can make one more run with this core if they get off to a hot start. 

[blindeke]

"Morales and his powerful bat"

 

reading that just makes me mad and sad both.

[Blake]

 

Their starting pitching is a detriment to the team, and I don't think their bullpen can make up for average starting pitching anymore.

 

It will be interesting to see who they sell off in July. When you add up the sum of all their parts, it sounds like a good lineup... But on their own, is Hosmer that good? Moustakas? Gordon?  

Good observation.

 

Though, at one time Gordon would have been very good on his own. But, at age 33, he's in his declining years. No way around it.