Article: The Twins Are Going to Win 80 Games in 2017

[USAFChief]

Yeah, I think play second bat second had a lot to do with that.  There plenty of low OBP guys batting in front him most of his career.  Kind of hard to get RBIs when you don't have guys on base in front of you.

That's part of it.

[ashbury]

Yeah, I think play second bat second had a lot to do with that.  There plenty of low OBP guys batting in front him most of his career.  Kind of hard to get RBIs when you don't have guys on base in front of you.

There are stats that show performance with men on base. Edwin Encarnacion led the league in RBI with 127 and Joe had 49, so I'll compare them. As an aside, nobody in either league got to 100 RBI without hitting 25 HR or more - Joe had 11 - so I'm not heavily cherry picking by looking at the AL RBI leader.

 

Here is one breakdown of "opportunity", from b-r.com:

 

Encarnacion (160 games and 702 PA total):

Bases empty: 356 PA, 22 RBI (homers, obviously)

Any runners on: 346 PA, 105 RBI (these two lines add up to the season total)

RISP: 198 PA, 80 RBI (a subset of the second line)

Runner on first: 148 PA, 25 RBI (subtract the two above lines)

 

Mauer (134 games and 576 PA total):

Bases empty: 346 PA, 10 RBI

Any runners on: 230 PA, 39 RBI

RISP: 140 PA, 34 RBI

Runner on first: 90 PA, 5 RBI

 

There are further breakdowns, to exact bases occupied and numbers of outs, but that gets you further into the weeds of Small Sample Size, which already is in play with samples like 90 PA above.

 

Notice that Mauer had almost as many appearances at the plate with nobody on, as Encarnacion did, despite the disparity in games played. Joe's teammates weren't getting the ducks on the pond. If you pro-rate Encarnacion's opportunities with men on base to Mauer's number, while still keeping his good production, he doesn't reach 100 RBI either.

 

Mauer's OPS was actually better with runners on than with bases empty, while Encarnacion was slightly the opposite. However, Mauer's OPS with men on is bumped up greatly by the walk rate, while Encarnacion's walks stay about the same.

 

My summary: there is something to both sides of the discussion. Mauer had many fewer opportunities with men on, and did far less with them. I think Joe's paucity of homers, and walks with men on base, are both key. But even Babe Ruth might have had trouble distinguishing himself with so many fewer choice opportunities in reduced playing time.

 

 

 

 

[USAFChief]

There are stats that show performance with men on base. Edwin Encarnacion led the league in RBI with 127 and Joe had 49. As an aside, nobody in either league got to 100 RBI without hitting 25 HR or more - Joe had 11 - so I'm not heavily cherry picking by looking at the AL RBI leader.

 

Here is one breakdown of "opportunity", from b-r.com:

 

Encarnacion:

Bases empty: 356 PA, 22 RBI (homers, obviously)

Any runners on: 346 PA, 105 RBI (these two lines add up to the season total)

RISP: 198 PA, 80 RBI (a subset of the second line)

Runner on first: 148 PA, 25 RBI (subtract the two above lines)

 

Mauer:

Bases empty: 346 PA, 10 RBI

Any runners on: 230 PA, 39 RBI

RISP: 140 PA, 34 RBI

Runner on first: 90 PA, 5 RBI

 

There are further breakdowns, to exact bases occupied and numbers of outs, but that gets you further into the weeds of Small Sample Size, which already is in play with samples like 90 PA above.

 

My summary: there is something to both sides of the discussion. Mauer had many fewer opportunities with men on, and did far less with them.

And it's not a one year anomaly.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Member note: Moderators please take the Mauer conversation to an appropriate thread

[drivlikejehu]

"Misapplication of statistics" thread.

[USAFChief]

Member note: Moderators please take the Mauer conversation to an appropriate thread

It's actually about baseruns, but I stand duly chastised.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Mauer (134 games and 576 PA total):

Bases empty: 346 PA, 10 RBI

Any runners on: 230 PA, 39 RBI

RISP: 140 PA, 34 RBI

That's friggin' brutal. 50% more PAs with the bases empty than with runners on any base.

 

It's even worse when you consider where Mauer batted all season.

 

1st: 36 PAs

2nd: 240 PAs

3rd: 289 PAs

 

He spent half his time in the third slot and had that many bases empty plate appearances. Ugh.

[TheLeviathan]

 

That's friggin' brutal. 50% more PAs with the bases empty than with runners on any base.

 

It's even worse when you consider where Mauer batted all season.

 

1st: 36 PAs

2nd: 240 PAs

3rd: 289 PAs

 

He spent half his time in the third slot and had that many bases empty plate appearances. Ugh.

 

Does it help to know that the statistics indicate he likely wouldn't have done much with them even if they had been full?  

[drivlikejehu]

I love the idea that it's bad to take a walk with runners on base. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Does it help to know that the statistics indicate he likely wouldn't have done much with them even if they had been full?  

Now that you bring it up, not really.

[ashbury]

I love the idea that it's bad to take a walk with runners on base. 

I didn't think I was making a value judgment. I gave some explanations for the low RBI.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I love the idea that it's bad to take a walk with runners on base.

not inherently, if you have someone behind you that can get a hit regularly

[drivlikejehu]

 

I didn't think I was making a value judgment. I gave some explanations for the low RBI.

 

OK, but going back to the original point - BaseRuns doesn't care about RBIs. They are an accounting statistic, not a performance statistic.

[USAFChief]

OK, but going back to the original point - BaseRuns doesn't care about RBIs. They are an accounting statistic, not a performance statistic.

That is quite clearly not true.

[mcrow]

If all the dials align...maybe. If all the young guys take a big step forward and they still have Dozier on the roster. 

[Brandon Warne]

 

I really want to pay attention to Vielma in Spring Training. I share your memory of the Florimonster - I have flashbacks of him sticking that bat out and hoping to dump the pitch into short right field. It would be nice to find out that Vielma has more going on than that.

 

I know the issues with scouting the stat line, but minor league numbers:

 

Florimon - .250/.322/.359

Vielma - .264/.327/.309

[ashbury]

I know the issues with scouting the stat line, but minor league numbers:

 

Florimon - .250/.322/.359

Vielma - .264/.327/.309

Fair enough. Pedro had a little bit of pop. He must have used a different approach at the plate than when I saw him, though.

[Brandon Warne]

I remember him being completely dead to pitches middle-in. Don't have stats for it, just how it appeared to me. Couldn't touch anything under his hands. 

[Doomtints]

Vielma only makes the Twins if the Twins are still broken in two years and still can't figure out how to field a major league level team. Don't wish for this.

 

[Broker]

The Twins just had a bad 2016. I expect 2017 to be a much better season. For the most part our players are young guys that will get better with experience. I'm sure 2017 will be much better.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Vielma only makes the Twins if the Twins are still broken in two years and still can't figure out how to field a major league level team. Don't wish for this.

I don't know if it's quite that bad.

 

If Vielma is a starter or sees significant playing time, that's likely a big problem.

 

But as a glove-first backup, he could have value.

 

If he can play second or third well, that value rises quite a bit. He's the type of guy who could stick around baseball for 4+ years as the 24th or 25th man on the roster.

 

After all, Adam Everett accumulated just over 3000 MLB PAs with a 66 OPS+ and managed to generate nearly 10 career fWAR.

[drivlikejehu]

 

That is quite clearly not true.

 

There is no such thing as a separate "RBI skill." Obviously some players get more than others based on opportunity, batted ball profile, etc. But once you look at the underlying reasons, there is nothing odd about that.

 

Honestly I'm not sure what you're even trying to say, because this is basic stuff that was established decades ago.