ZiPS 2017 Projections

[Physics Guy]

ZiPS projections for the 2017 season has the Twins at 81-81.

 

http://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/17964821/zips-2017-standings-projections-cubs-odds-repeat-surprise-contenders-more-mlb

 

Excerpt on the Twins:

 

"Minnesota wasn't expected to be a juggernaut in 2016, but the Twins also weren't supposed to be this bad. They'll improve simply from the good ol' "Plexiglas principle," and some of their young players should continue to improve (especially Jose Berrios)."

 

I would be very happy with that if the lineup continues to trend towards younger players and our pitching has a semblance of respectability and future upside. 81-81 without a focus on letting our younger players play would not impress me.

[Mike Sixel]

Wow, that's a good 5-7 games better than I would have expected.

[laloesch]

I don't think they'll make it to 81-81.  Not without substantial improvement to the starting rotation.  I mean anything is possible i guess, but without a major rebound from Gibson, Duffey and a successful re-conversion of May to the rotation it's going to be hard to get there.  

 

This scenario would also require another solid season from Santana and some kind of progression from Berrios.  Not factoring in Hughes at this point although he could be a factor if he comes back successfully.    

[Doomtints]

 

I don't think they'll make it to 81-81.  Not without substantial improvement to the starting rotation.  I mean anything is possible i guess, but without a major rebound from Gibson, Duffey and a successful re-conversion of May to the rotation it's going to be hard to get there.  

 

This scenario would also require another solid season from Santana and some kind of progression from Berrios.  Not factoring in Hughes at this point although he could be a factor if he comes back successfully.    

 

Yeah.  The pitching staff needs a hell of a lot of work.  81-81 is definitely not possible with what they have now.  If no moves are made they could actually trend worse next year.

It will be a lot easier to make predictions like this in February than it is today.  

[Willihammer]

FG version seems to have the Twins in the mid-70s

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/come-look-at-2017-projections-already/

 

Why the difference?

[Mike Sixel]

 

FG version seems to have the Twins in the mid-70s

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/come-look-at-2017-projections-already/

 

Why the difference?

 

interesting....same math/program/author....I guess I'll have to look.

[HitInAPinch]

"The crux of Plexiglas is this: A team that improves in one season tends to decline the next, and vice versa."

 

Yeah, I'll hang my had on that!   LOL

[Physics Guy]

Yeah.  The pitching staff needs a hell of a lot of work.  81-81 is definitely not possible with what they have now.  If no moves are made they could actually trend worse next year.

It will be a lot easier to make predictions like this in February than it is today.

 

Why is it not possible? They went 83-79 with a starting rotation of Gibson, Pelfrey, Hughes, Millone, Santana, Duffey and Nolasco making most of the starts. Nobody had what I would consider a "career" year, outside of maybe Gibson. I am guardedly optimistic that Santana, Gibson, Santiago, Berrios, May, Duffey and Maybe Hughes might be able equal that group. If they can get their ERA closer to 4, I like their chances of .500.

[markos]

 

interesting....same math/program/author....I guess I'll have to look.

Fangraphs uses a combination of Steamer and ZIPS, and they do their own playing time projections as well. 

[Doomtints]

 

Why is it not possible? They went 83-79 with a starting rotation of Gibson, Pelfrey, Hughes, Millone, Santana, Duffey and Nolasco making most of the starts. Nobody had what I would consider a "career" year, outside of maybe Gibson. I am guardedly optimistic that Santana, Gibson, Santiago, Berrios, May, Duffey and Maybe Hughes might be able equal that group. If they can get their ERA closer to 4, I like their chances of .500.

 

Except May is a bullpen arm, Duffey should be a bullpen arm, Berrios is still at least half a year from being productively ready, Gibson and Hughes are coming off major injuries, and Santana might be traded.  This leaves Santiago, someone who we are all still skeptical about.

 

This isn't a pitching staff, it's a laundry list of problems that need to be solved.  The most any reasonable person would hope for is that half of them work out (after subtracting the two likely bullpen arms from your list).  That leaves two serviceable starting pitchers to carry a team to a .500 record with a bullpen behind them that suffers from the same problems.  Still seem likely?  

[laloesch]

 

Except May is a bullpen arm, Duffey should be a bullpen arm, Berrios is still at least half a year from being productively ready, Gibson and Hughes are coming off major injuries, and Santana might be traded.  This leaves Santiago, someone who we are all still skeptical about.

 

This isn't a pitching staff, it's a laundry list of problems that need to be solved.  The most any reasonable person would hope for is that half of them work out (after subtracting the two likely bullpen arms from your list).  That leaves two serviceable starting pitchers to carry a team to a .500 record with a bullpen behind them that suffers from the same problems.  Still seem likely?  

 

I think the difference is that Hughes had a solid start to 2015, Santana as well in his limited starts due to the suspension, AND AND semi solid seasons from Milone and Gibson.  That's why they made it to 83-79 in 2015 in my opinion.  

 

Fast forward to 2016.  Milone and Gibson completely tank.  Hughes is hurt the entire season and Duffey completely falls apart and Nolasco continues to surprise no-one with continued mediocrity.

 

IThe ONLY way i see it happening is if Hughes comes back successfully and has a 2014ish season (next to impossible in my opinion), Santana picks up right where he left off in 2016, Gibson does a complete 180 and has a respectable season, Duffey masters a third pitch making himself an effective starter, Berrios progresses and May successfully returns healthy and transitions into an effective role (either starting or relief).

 

Very difficult slope to climb back next season and that's not touching other issues like the infield and the bullpen. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Fangraphs uses a combination of Steamer and ZIPS, and they do their own playing time projections as well. 

 

thanks! you saved me some serious time...