Improving the Twins

[jimmer]

The problem people had with Punto was how he was utilized by Gardy and some of the things Gardy said about him. 

 

Gardy saying things like:

 

-Punto is the best defender we have at whatever position he's at. 

-The #1 offseason priority for this team should be to re-sign Punto to be the starting shortstop.

-If everyone else on the team was doing their job, no one would talk about Punto's inability to hit.

 

Things like that, and that's only the tip of the iceberg.

 

To me, the disdain Punto got was completely unfair to Punto (though I admit, I am embarrassed to say there were times I was there too)  Truth is, all Punto ever did for us was give 100% all the time.  What was he going to do, tell Gardy he won't play when Gardy keeps putting him in the lineup? 

 

Also, Punto never had a negative fWAR with the Twins.

 

 

[alarp33]

 

The problem people had with Punto was how he was utilized by Gardy and some of the things Gardy said about him. 

 

Gardy saying things like:

 

Punto is the best defender we have at whatever position he's at. 

The #1 offseason priority for this team should be to re-sign Punto.

If everyone else was doing their job, no one would talk about Punto's inability to hit.

 

Things like that, and that's only the tip of the iceberg.

 

To me, the disdain Punto got was completely unfair to Punto (though I admit, I am embarrassed to say there were times I was there too)  Truth is, all Punto ever did for us was give 100% all the time.  What was he going to do, tell Gardy he won't play when Gardy keeps putting him in the lineup?

 

Punto was a good utility player Gardy tried to make his opening day 3rd baseman.  

 

I have no idea how anyone can think "because we had Punto, there must be room for DanSan". 

 

I'm always confused by the Danny Santana defenders, in that they obviously have no ammo for any discussion, and the argument always to center around "25th man" "Utility guy", etc.  We all know the Twins need utility players.. the point is, they can do a hell of a lot better than Danny Santana. 

[Doomtints]

All of that seems like fairly accurate things to say about Punto.

[alarp33]

 

All of that seems like fairly accurate things to say about Punto.

 

Are you replying to me? 25th man or Utility comment? 

 

If so, you are correct.  Punto was a good utility player and end of the bench guy.  

 

Danny Santana is good at none of the things you want out of a bench player, or baseball player in general.  Which is my point

[jimmer]

Anyone who thinks signing a guy like Punto should be a team's #1 offseason priority probably needs to be fired.

[Doomtints]

 

I'm always confused by the Danny Santana defenders, in that they obviously have no ammo for any discussion, and the argument always to center around "25th man" "Utility guy", etc.  We all know the Twins need utility players.. the point is, they can do a hell of a lot better than Danny Santana. 

 

My point is ... who?  Cutting players with no replacement plans, and inserting random players into random places to plug the holes caused by doing that simply has not worked for this team.  Just saying "Escobar could do it" doesn't mean Escobar would be an upgrade.

Every time the Twins cut a utility guy they end up with a worse one.  They should think about it before they do it.  And fans should not be so quick to hate on utility guys -- history suggests the fans are wrong.

[jimmer]

shudder to think there's actually a worse one than Santana.  Santana who can't hit, steal a base or field at a quality MLB level.  it takes a lot of talent to be horrible at every aspect of the game and still have a semi-regular gig (which is how he has been played by Molitor).

[Doomtints]

 

shudder to think there's actually a worse one than Santana.  Santana who can't hit, steal a base or field at a quality MLB level.  it takes a lot of talent to be horrible at every aspect of the game and still have a semi-regular gig (which is how he has been played by Molitor).

 

Of course there could be worse ones.  They tried it with Bartlett who had the range of a sloth.  You could throw a dart at the current Twins roster and you would more likely than not hit a player who could not field outside of his own position.  Santana should not be a corner outfielder but at other positions he is at least close to average as a defender.  And all he has to do when he is in a game is hold down the fort until someone comes off the DL and get a hit once in a while.  He does these things.  He is no star, but utility players rarely are.

[Mike Sixel]

What are these other positions he is average at? Not SS, not 1b, not catcher. Has he played 2nd or 3rd?

[Doomtints]

 

What are these other positions he is average at? Not SS, not 1b, not catcher. Has he played 2nd or 3rd?

 

Close to average.  Not average.  If he were average, he would be the starter.  

[jimmer]

 

What are these other positions he is average at? Not SS, not 1b, not catcher. Has he played 2nd or 3rd?

He has a negative DRS at every position he's played except 3B where he's only played 10 innings.  He managed to get -1 DRS in only 9 innings at 2B.  Not easy to do.  In the corners, he's only been at -1 (at each corner, not combined).

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

and still have a semi-regular gig (which is how he has been played by Molitor).

Yup.

 

When Santana has been on the active roster this year, he has played at a 409 PA full-season PA pace.  Pretty stunning usage after his 2015 performance, considering he's only marginally improved upon it.

[Mike Sixel]

He's not close to average at anything.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Santana should not be a corner outfielder but at other positions he is at least close to average as a defender.

Today marked Santana's first appearance outside of a corner outfield spot since July 30.

[Doomtints]

 

Today marked Santana's first appearance outside of a corner outfield spot since July 30.

 

Fun times.  Go Twins!@  

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

And all he has to do when he is in a game is hold down the fort until someone comes off the DL and get a hit once in a while. He is no star, but utility players rarely are.

Who was the Twins utility player the first half of the season?  Who is their utility player now?  I'll give you a hint: neither was/is Santana.

 

Teams do not generally devote a full-time roster spot (and playing time equivalent to a 409 PA full season) for a second utility player whose primary function is to cover for other players when they are on the DL.  They usually use a player from AAA for that purpose, and play him sparingly.

 

Santana may be a utility player in your mind, but in actual practice, he is a 4th outfielder this season.  And a pretty terrible one.

[Doomtints]

He is serviceable in CF.  If Buxton could hit, Santana wouldn't be starting out there either.  Heck, he wouldn't be starting in the corner OF slots if Buxton were ready since the starting CFer would be sliding to a corner.

 

Here are his F2O% numbers by position compared to the rest of baseball for 2016.  (And before anyone responds, F2O% is NOT fielding percentage):

 

CF - Santana 49%, league average 53%.

RF - Santana 41%, league average 50%.

LF - Santana 40%, league average 46%.

SS - Santana 100%, league average 89%.

3B - Santana 83%, league average 87%

2B - Santana null%, league average 92% (1 game, 0 balls hit to his zone)

 

Based on this, as a manager I would be comfortable with him being the backup/utility/emergency player from a defensive standpoint, but putting him in LF/RF is clearly a mistake/last option.

[jimmer]

In 300 or so innings in CF this year, he has managed -8 DRS.  That's pretty horrible.

 

Anyway, this is starting to sound like the whole Sano was okay in RF conversation so I'm going to end my part of this debate now :-)

[alarp33]

 

Of course there could be worse ones.  They tried it with Bartlett who had the range of a sloth.  You could throw a dart at the current Twins roster and you would more likely than not hit a player who could not field outside of his own position.  Santana should not be a corner outfielder but at other positions he is at least close to average as a defender.  And all he has to do when he is in a game is hold down the fort until someone comes off the DL and get a hit once in a while.  He does these things.  He is no star, but utility players rarely are.

 

Jason Bartlett played in 3 games and had 4 plate appearances in this 2014 stint you keep referring to.  

Danny Santana has had almost 500 plate appearances since the start of last season and has been the single worst player in the major leagues. 

 

There might be positions he is close to average at? Like which ones? How about his (lack of) hitting, does that count for anything? Crappy baserunning?

[alarp33]

 

He is serviceable in CF.  If Buxton could hit, Santana wouldn't be starting out there either.  

 

Fun fact - Buxton and Santana are within .005 of each other in OPS since the start of 2015.  

[Doomtints]

 

In 300 or so innings in CF this year, he has managed -8 DRS.  That's pretty horrible.

 

Anyway, this is starting to sound like the whole Sano was okay in RF conversation so I'm going to end my part of this debate now :-)

 

Two things:  By Fangraph's measure, -8 is "below average" and not "bad" or "horrible."  

 

Secondly, DRS needs three years of data.  Using DRS for 38 game this year is a mistake.  Heck, it's not even good to use for Santana's career of 112 games in CF.  I'm not saying that given a big enough sample he will turn into a star defender, I'm saying you're putting too much stock into that number being the golden measure of his defense.  You are going to have to look at raw data and make your own evaluation, as I have done, and not use a simplified rollup stat.  

[alarp33]

 

Two things:  By Fangraph's measure, -8 is "below average" and not "bad" or "horrible."  

 

Secondly, DRS needs three years of data.  Using DRS for 38 game this year is a mistake.  Heck, it's not even good to use for Santana's career of 112 games in CF.  I'm not saying that given a big enough sample he will turn into a star defender, I'm saying you're putting too much stock into that number being the golden measure of his defense.  You are going to have to look at raw data and make your own evaluation, as I have done, and not use a simplified rollup stat.  

 

To sum it up.  

 

Your argument is he is not a horrible CFer, below avg, but not horrible.  We seem to all agree he is horrible in LF, RF, doesn't Catch or play 1st base.  Has hardly played 3B or 2B, and I think most would agree he's at least less than ideal at SS (putting it kindly).  Right?  

 

He is one of the worst hitters in the entire league - this seems pretty indisputable, I imagine you agree, but if not let me know.  

 

He is well below average as a base stealer, as evidenced by his numbers.  Agree?

 

Now tell me - what is your argument against my original point that it's embarrassing a player like this is seeing significant playing time.  Why do you think there is room on a 25 or 40 man roster for a player like that?

[Doomtints]

 

Fun fact - Buxton and Santana are within .005 of each other in OPS since the start of 2015.  

 

But not in 2016, which I would hope is the year the Twins currently care about.  

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Based on this, as a manager I would be comfortable with him being the backup/utility/emergency player from a defensive standpoint,

Again, who is the Twins utility player now?  Who was our utility player for the first half of the season?

 

If Santana was actually our utility player, fewer people would be complaining.  But he's not, we've had a different, better utility player on the team basically all season (and 2015).

 

If Santana was in AAA where "emergency" players belong, no one would be complaining.

 

But he's not either of those things.  He's on a 409 PA full season pace as a 4th outfielder.

[jimmer]

-8 for only 300 innings is horrible. For a full season, like if he had 900 innings or so right now and onlyy -8, that would be below average but not necessarily horrible. And DRS is a rolling year, and can be used after one year, unlike UZR which rolls in many year. Read the glossary.

[Doomtints]

 

To sum it up.  

 

Your argument is he is not a horrible CFer, below avg, but not horrible.  We seem to all agree he is horrible in LF, RF, doesn't Catch or play 1st base.  Has hardly played 3B or 2B, and I think most would agree he's at least less than ideal at SS (putting it kindly).  Right?  

 

He is one of the worst hitters in the entire league - this seems pretty indisputable, I imagine you agree, but if not let me know.  

 

He is well below average as a base stealer, as evidenced by his numbers.  Agree?

 

Now tell me - what is your argument against my original point that it's embarrassing a player like this is seeing significant playing time.  Why do you think there is room on a 25 or 40 man roster for a player like that?

 

Embarrassing.  Hm.

 

He is ranked 499 out of 727 players in the MLB for OPS.  

 

He has not played enough to qualify for most stats.  Among people who have played enough to qualify, he is ahead of half a dozen players.  This supports my premise.  He's not good enough to be an every day player, but he is good enough to be a backup utility guy.

 

Are we done going around and around yet?  You guys are arguing like I love Santana, but I don't!  I simply think you all are showing biases, and without a trusted better option on the table the Twins would be dumb to cut him loose.  If he were better than a C- player he would be a full time starter.  No one is arguing that he should replace anybody as a starter.

[Doomtints]

 

-8 for only 300 innings is horrible. For a full season, like if he had 900 innings or so right now and onlyy -8, that would be below average but not necessarily horrible. And DRS is a rolling year, and can be used after one year, unlike UZR which rolls in many year. Read the glossary.

 

The glossary that says this you mean?

 

"The other thing to remember is that DRS isn’t going to work well in small sample sizes, especially a couple of months or less. Once you get to one and three-year samples, it’s a relatively solid metric but defensive itself is quite variable so you need a good amount of data for the metrics to become particularly useful. There’s plenty more to say about this issue, but that’s for another entry."

 

Sure, I'll go ahead and read that.  Thanks!

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

He is ranked 499 out of 727 players in the MLB for OPS.  

416 out of 585 if you exclude pitchers.

 

380 out of 466 if you add just a 50 PA threshold.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

but he is good enough to be a backup utility guy.

Do you mean "backup to the utility guy"?  Does that guy get 409 PA over a full season?  Do MLB teams even need that guy on the MLB roster at all times?

[alarp33]

 

Embarrassing.  Hm.

 

He is ranked 499 out of 727 players in the MLB for OPS.  

 

He has not played enough to qualify for most stats.  Among people who have played enough to qualify, he is ahead of half a dozen players.  This supports my premise.  He's not good enough to be an every day player, but he is good enough to be a backup utility guy.

 

Are we done going around and around yet?  You guys are arguing like I love Santana, but I don't!  I simply think you all are showing biases, and without a trusted better option on the table the Twins would be dumb to cut him loose.  If he were better than a C- player he would be a full time starter.  No one is arguing that he should replace anybody as a starter.

 

268 of 280 in OPS - players with 225 PA or more.  I'm guessing you tried to sneak pitchers in there? I'll give you that, if he was a pitcher, his bat would be ok. 

 

I assume you agree with baserunning and defense comments then?   So your bar is, there's room for him on a 25 man roster because he has a better OPS than Ramon Flores and AJ?