Chances Are..........

[TNLooky2015]

Most bloggers here believe that OBP and K/BB rate are huge indicators for future success.  The question becomes when do we step away from that "Baseball Player Development Format" and open our minds to the possibilities and probabilities that "someone" might buck the system?  I have heard people complain in countless threads about the "Twins Way" and how the Twins need to get with modern day saber metrics.   [ This player doesn't get on base enough / This player doesn't walk enough as it compares to his strikeouts / This player needs to be rushed quicker through the system / This player needs another year in __ ball to improve ___ / This player doesn't strikeout enough people (despite getting outs) / This player has great stuff (but doesn't get enough outs) / etc. / etc. ].  The only thing certain is that no one has a clear set formula that works.   That being said:

 

What is your golden rule that is needed for a prospect to be successful?  

 

What prospects are you basing your theory on (success)?  

 

The Twins have a future HOF on the team that sports a lifetime .394 OBP, and a lifetime K/BB rate of 1.04, yet averages only 68 runs per game in his career.  Those are clear cut indicators to me that despite his greatness, he  needs run producers sprinkled in to maximize his gifts.  The Twins had only Mauer, Sano, and Hicks (regulars) with an OBP over .309 last year.   If we are going to play with a line-up of low OBP players, we might as well play with guys who are proven run producers.   Game Changers --- Vargas; Arcia; Park; Walker; Sano; Plouffe; are guys in our system who have a history of driving in runs.  The Twins balked on Vargas and Arcia early last year.  I hope they don't do the same this year with Park and Walker.  Simply  because  "Chances are...."  based on the "Baseball Player Development Format".

 

Walker is the only person in any MLB system to lead his league in homers; extra base hits; total bases and rbi over a 3 year span.  Comparing him to other minor league prospects shows a willingness to not buck the norm.  He is not criticized for his lack of success, but for the "Chances are..." theory that players with his make up don't generally succeed.   

Per/ 162 Game Average (4 MiLB seasons)

100 Runs

198 SO

306 TB

128 RBI

52   BB

35  HRs

05  3B

31  2B

12  SB

.234 ISO

.800 OPS

4 Championships (4 years)

 

No one in the system averages numbers like this guy, with maybe the exception of Sano and Park.  Not Arcia! Not Plouffe! Not Vargas!  Let's get away from the "Chances are..." mindset and start trusting what we see (Production).

 

 

[TNLooky2015]

For the record - Walker ranked 18th in strikeouts in 2013, in his league and didn't even lead his team that year.  So when you hear people say he led his league every year in strikeouts - It's not true.  He actually struck out at a 20% rate that year.  Another complaint is that he is far behind for a player who he went to college.  That fact is that he was one of the youngest college players in his draft and was actually younger than league average in every year of his professional career (even in Elizabethton).   If you can name the last Milwaukee (Wisconsin) prospect to make the major leagues, you might have to google.  Walker was behind his learning curve before he probably even began.  Think outside the box with all our power guys and maximize our best options based on results.

[BoomBoom]

Prospect Projections: AL Central rookies 2016

http://www.milb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20160125&content_id=162671830&fext=.jsp&vkey=news_milb&sid=milb

 

I know this - ABW II is the only prospect in the AL Central / East / & West predictions  to hit 20+ HRs (27) and 10+ stolen bases.  Not a bad honor.  Interesting what they thought of some of our hitters and pitching prospects.

 

 

[Seth Stohs]

There are exceptions to everything. 

 

He's such a good guy that I hope that Walker can be an exception.

 

There are concerns about more than just his contact rate and strikeouts. 

[TNLooky2015]

I agree with you Seth.  When people talk about the 5 tools of a position player, defense is not one of Walkers flaws IMO.  The throwing tool is.  I've seen him run down some hard hit balls.  He always seems under control.  He just never tries to throw people out.  Why did the Twins think and say they thought he could play in the outfield when they drafted him?

[clutterheart]

It would be super fun to watch his RH power in the "Dozier LF Power Alley" of Target Field.  

 

Hopefully he becomes the first player in baseball to make it with his combo of horrid OB%, poor Walks & horrid K's.  I am not counting on it, but holy cow would it be exciting if it does.  

 

 

[alarp33]

Scouting the Stat line accomplishes very little.  I read prospect rankings written by real scouts to form my general opinion on players.  

 

ABW has never been thought of as much of a prospect, and with his K-rate I think its very unlikely he'll be able to hit Major League pitching.  

[whydidnt]

Agree with Seth that there are always exceptions. However, a player's minor league results are still a very good indicator of MLB results. If a player, like Walker is striking out 30% of the time against AA hitting, it is logical to think that rate will only get worse at the Major League level. Now, obviously you hope that as guys mature they learn to better manage the strike zone. However it's really hard to be successful when you can't get on base due to all those Ks. There have been numerous studies done that show teams that have a high OBP score more runs than teams that don't. Baseball Prospectus ran a study that compared a team of Ricky Henderson's (.400 OBP) to a team of Shawon Dunstons (.296 OBP). The difference was 50 wins a year, everything else being equal.

 

As far as the battle of stats vs. scouting is concerned-- ideally, you would use one to confirm the other. It seems to me ignoring stats because of scouts is how we ended up with multiple years of Correa and Pelfrey. That really didn't work out very well. Conversely, just because a guy is putting up great numbers, doesn't mean you should ignore the scouts that have identified reasons for potential issues down the road. There is room to consider both areas of input when evaluating players. My opinion is that the Twins have not used the statistical evidence as much as they should have over the last decade.

[ThejacKmp]

 

The Twins have a future HOF on the team that sports a lifetime .394 OBP, and a lifetime K/BB rate of 1.04, yet averages only 68 runs per game in his career.  

 

If Joe Mauer scored 68 runs per game, the Twins would be pretty good.

[ThejacKmp]

 

 

No one in the system averages numbers like this guy, with maybe the exception of Sano and Park.  Not Arcia! Not Plouffe! Not Vargas!  Let's get away from the "Chances are..." mindset and start trusting what we see (Production).

 

I am a Walker fan but you're cherry picking stats here. His K rate is worrisome and needs to go down if he's going to be able to put all of his other super impressive tools to good use. Otherwise he's a 4th OF/bench bat type. I hope he turns into more than that though.

[TNLooky2015]

 

If Joe Mauer scored 68 runs per game, the Twins would be pretty good.

Lol - True

[nicksaviking]

Minor league pitchers have a disadvantage for several reasons when facing a guy like Walker due to the fact that their ultimate goal is to make it to the MLB.

 

1) They generally aren't as skilled as MLB pitchers and aren't as good at locating pitches.

 

2) MLB teams tend to take most notice of the minor league BB and K figures, so they have incentives to throw within the zone.

 

MLB pitchers ultimate goal is to get the batter out. As soon as they see that Walker will swing at pitches out of the zone that he cannot hit, that's the only kinds of pitches he will see. This kind of prospect and the problems associated with them is very common.

 

If he can develop pitch recognition like Sano, his strikeouts wouldn't matter too much. That's his only hope.

[TNLooky2015]

I just imagine that leading a league every year in HRs, RBI. ISO, TB, XBH has to trump the K total, especially win your team is winning the championship every year.  Much of that does have to do with the combination of teammate skill sets.  However, 100 runs a year scored is pretty significant for a guy with his K rate too.  He has been consistently good / bad every year, with the good outweighing the bad.   Sometimes I feel like being a winner is only used when talking about quarterbacks.  This young nucleus of players are just that - Winners.  Loved these below projections when I think of his former teammates (Buxton; Kepler; Sano; Rosario; Polanco)  who would have been on base for Walker.  Game Changer

 

Prospect Projections: AL Central rookies 2016
http://www.milb.com/...s_milb&sid=milb

[rghrbek]

Mauer is a future hall of famer?  Are we confident about that?  I think he needs a few more .400 + OB% years before he even gets into that discussion (and that probably s/b another thread)

 

I do believe that sometimes people can figure things out, and do better than their minor league projections (not common but it happens).  ABW is someone to watch and be hopeful about, but I agree with Nick, that with the uptick in pitching at the MLB level, he is going to have to continue to develop an elite eye at the plate, similar to Sano.

[BoomBoom]

 

Minor league pitchers have a disadvantage for several reasons when facing a guy like Walker due to the fact that their ultimate goal is to make it to the MLB.

 

1) They generally aren't as skilled as MLB pitchers and aren't as good at locating pitches.

 

2) MLB teams tend to take most notice of the minor league BB and K figures, so they have incentives to throw within the zone.

 

MLB pitchers ultimate goal is to get the batter out. As soon as they see that Walker will swing at pitches out of the zone that he cannot hit, that's the only kinds of pitches he will see. This kind of prospect and the problems associated with them is very common.

 

If he can develop pitch recognition like Sano, his strikeouts wouldn't matter too much. That's his only hope.

Walkers 51 BB last year would have been 4th on the Twins and that was in 20 less games.  It's not that he doesn't walk, it's that he doesn't walk enough compared to his K's.  If half his K's were fly outs instead, he would be seen in an entirely different light.   The guys on the MLB Network joked about how "at least K guys aren't hitting into double plays".  

 

ALSO:  I tend to think think the disadvantage goes to the hitter in the minor leagues.  Pitchers have a much better scouting report on hitters who stay in a league year round as do hitters who see new pitchers running through the league year round due to promotions.   4 of the Lookouts opening day roster pitchers were on the roster when they actually won the championship last year.  2 of those 4 were even demoted for 2 months during that season.  That is what happens to pitchers throughout the minors every year.  Why and how should a hitter have an advantage over the pitcher?  That's why I believe that hitters who stay a  level, year round, are at a disadvantage due to pitcher merry-go-rounds during the season.  What and who are they adjusting to?  Where is their consistency in terms of growth?

[nicksaviking]

 

 Why and how should a hitter have an advantage over the pitcher?

 

Because minor league pitchers have to prove they can throw strikes consistently and minor league pitchers aren't as good at spotting their pitches. Why would any pitcher at the MLB level bother throwing Walker a hittable pitch?

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I just imagine that leading a league every year in HRs, RBI. ISO, TB, XBH has to trump the K total, especially win your team is winning the championship every year.  Much of that does have to do with the combination of teammate skill sets.  However, 100 runs a year scored is pretty significant for a guy with his K rate too.  He has been consistently good / bad every year, with the good outweighing the bad.   Sometimes I feel like being a winner is only used when talking about quarterbacks.  This young nucleus of players are just that - Winners.  Loved these below projections when I think of his former teammates (Buxton; Kepler; Sano; Rosario; Polanco)  who would have been on base for Walker.  Game Changer

 

Prospect Projections: AL Central rookies 2016
http://www.milb.com/...s_milb&sid=milb

 

Being a winner and QBs is one of the dumbest things the NFL does on a consistent basis.  There are 53 guys on a roster, and just b/c a few of them have won a few more championships means they likely contributed. In the NFL, QB is the most valuable position on the field (that I get), but if it's only on the QBs shoulders (which is what the whole being a winner thing essentially says) then it misses the forest for the trees.  If you don't see the absurdity in the being a winner argument, just watch how much it will change with Peyton Manning over the next few weeks, who up until Sunday was constantly seeing his accomplishments devalued for the simple reason of not being able to win the big game.

 

The same is true for Walker.  He's been on (and contributed to) a lot of good teams, which last I checked had a roster of around 25 guys (more when you consider minor league shuffling) who each made contributions to that team.  Walker played his position well, above average even, but this doesn't somehow mean should use a completely subjective stat called 'winner' (usually at the expense of his other teammates I'd add), nor does it mean that we should throw out everything used to evaluate a baseball player. There are lots of players who we would call bad that have won championships. Even a bad player can play a niche role well.  There are lots of good players who never got that ring.  That happens too, especially when their supporting cast isn't very good.

 

Now that said, I like Walker. If he figures out that K rate thing, he could be an absolute stud, but I don't think it's unreasonable to recognize that there may be problems with him in the majors.  We are having the exact same discussion in another thread about a guy named Delmon Young, who hit about as many home runs at a much younger age, struck out a ton, and didn't walk.  Is Young Walker?  I hope not, but I don't think it's unreasonable at all to let Walker keep working on it.  That is what the Twins SHOULD have done with Gomez and Young.  Young's contract kind of forced their hand (along with PR reasons for both), but both players needed to work on that, and I suspect both would have had much better careers had they been given the chance to do it in the minors. Gomez at least figured it out. Young never really did.

 

Be patient with Walker.  That's my thought.  He has 3 option years and will get some MLB at bats in 2016 I'm sure.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Mauer is a future hall of famer?  Are we confident about that?  I think he needs a few more .400 + OB% years before he even gets into that discussion (and that probably s/b another thread)

 

I do believe that sometimes people can figure things out, and do better than their minor league projections (not common but it happens).  ABW is someone to watch and be hopeful about, but I agree with Nick, that with the uptick in pitching at the MLB level, he is going to have to continue to develop an elite eye at the plate, similar to Sano.

 

As a catcher, I'd say no doubt about it. The problem so far is that he's aged rather poorly. A couple more Maueresque type seasons would make it a no-brainer.

 

I look at it this way.  If he had retired after that concussion instead of moving to 1B, or gotten glaucoma in his eye forcing him out... would he be in the hall?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

We are having the exact same discussion in another thread about a guy named Delmon Young, who hit about as many home runs at a much younger age, struck out a ton, and didn't walk.

Actually Young never struck out that much.  Probably would have been a lot easier to evaluate if he did.  As it was, after his low minors success, he coasted on a fairly empty batting average and RBIs most of the time.

[TNLooky2015]

Being a winner and QBs is one of the dumbest things the NFL does on a consistent basis.  There are 53 guys on a roster, and just b/c a few of them have won a few more championships means they likely contributed. In the NFL, QB is the most valuable position on the field (that I get), but if it's only on the QBs shoulders (which is what the whole being a winner thing essentially says) then it misses the forest for the trees. 

I acknowledged that teammates have much to do with the entire winning concept.   Magic Johnson had great scorers on his team, which made his assist skill set valuable.  Terry Bradshaw had great receivers on his way to 4 super bowls.  Walker was fortunate enough to have great teammates and was able to use his skill set to help in those championships.  I'm just saying that his skill set is a valuable component to those championships and the Twins future championships. IMO  -  

 

Do you put merit into what Sano said about it being easier to hit at the MLB level, than it was at the AA level because pitchers were around the plate more?  

 

And like it was said earlier - Walker did walk 51 times last year.  That would be good for 61st place in the entire MLB last year.   That's out of 663 players who hit last season in the league.  I would also bet from watching the games last year in Chattanooga that Walker worked more full counts than anyone on the team too.  He just struck out on many of those counts despite working them to 3-2.  That is a more fixable problem than being a free swinger like so many claim him to still be.

[Bob Sacamento]

Bill James Data from wayback:

 

What a Batted Ball is Worth (in terms of a run):

Line Drive: .356
HBP: .342
Non-Intentional Walk: .315
Intentional Walk: .176
Outfield Fly: .035
Groundball: -.101
Bunts: -.103
Infield Fly: -.243
Strikeout: -.287

[ScrapTheNickname]

 

Mauer is a future hall of famer?  Are we confident about that?  I think he needs a few more .400 + OB% years before he even gets into that discussion (and that probably s/b another thread)

 

I do believe that sometimes people can figure things out, and do better than their minor league projections (not common but it happens).  ABW is someone to watch and be hopeful about, but I agree with Nick, that with the uptick in pitching at the MLB level, he is going to have to continue to develop an elite eye at the plate, similar to Sano.

Someone had to say the obvious (about Mauer). Thank you.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Lol - True

 

And Minnesotans would still say, "That Joe Mauer only scores 68 runs per game. That's over $338,000 per run. He sucks."

[BK432]

I have a hard time with this topic and how it's spun by some. ABW has never been a top prospect, and his removal from that status does not signify some sort of 'Twins Way' evaluation failure (by the way - the only time I see people mention "Twins Way" is by people who think people still say that). He probably won't make it as an MLB regular. But if he does - that doesn't mean people were wrong. There isn't much of a blueprint for guys like him making it.

 

I'm not optimistic. But I'm sure he's a good guy and I definitely hope we're all wrong. Chances are we'll at least get to see a few at bats at Target Field this season.

[Otto von Ballpark]

And Minnesotans would still say, "That Joe Mauer only scores 68 runs per game. That's over $338,000 per run. He sucks."

Is that a shot at Minnesota math too?

[TNLooky2015]

 

There isn't much of a blueprint for guys like him making it.

 

I like to think there isn't much of a blueprint for guys like him not making it.  Mainly because no one can think of a guy like him in history.  3 consecutive years of leading your league in HRs and RBI and TB and XBH and ISO and not making it.  Cecil Fielder is the last MLB player to win a HR and RBI title (2/3 of the triple crown) in consecutive seasons (1990 & 1991).  Ralph Kiner led the league in HRs for 7 straight years (1946 to 1952) and only led the league in RBI once in that span.  His teams were terrible by the way, even with his lifetime .398 OBP.  Ryan Howard did it in 2006 and 2008 on his way to 1 world title and several close calls in his hay day.  Production never lies.  It is what it is!   Chances are speculators sometimes fall victim to the truth, because they don't believe what they see in front of them.  They see the K's and become blinded by the production because of the "Chances are" potential.  That's the beauty of prospect dreaming though.  We all see potential through different color lenses.  

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

 

 

Do you put merit into what Sano said about it being easier to hit at the MLB level, than it was at the AA level because pitchers were around the plate more?  

 

 

No not really at all.  I have no doubt that certain skill sets will do better than others when prompted, but most hitters who make the majors struggle.  That's a verifiable fact. I'd add that while Sano did quite well, his peripherals in MLB said otherwise, and as I've said in other threads, if he doesn't correct those, he's going to find himself struggling in the big leagues.  Sano at the least has a track record that says he can, b/c his peripherals in the minors have always been very good.  But make no doubt about it, there are scouting reports out on him now, and if he doesn't return to minor league habits, he's going to struggle.

 

Walker on the other hand, has never put up the peripheral data that screamed success.  He can hit the ball along way when he hits it, but that all or nothing approach will be more northing than all when facing competition that is talented enough to take advantage of the flaws shown in scouting reports that for the most part don't exist on him yet.  The Delmon Young comparison might be apt, except that Walker strikes out a lot more than Young (who was a free swinger).  There's no reason to rush the kid, he needs to figure this one out.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Is that a shot at Minnesota math too?

 

I don't think so.

 

$23 million / 68 runs =  ~$338K. I guess I could have / 162 at that point but that number isn't as big and not as fun. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I don't think so.

 

$23 million / 68 runs =  ~$338K. I guess I could have / 162 at that point but that number isn't as big and not as fun. 

That's the point.  68 runs per game would be more like $2k per run.  A Minnesota fan complaining that it cost $338k per run would have applied incorrect math by not further dividing it by 162. Hence, it read as a dig at Minnesota math.

[LimestoneBaggy]

1. Walker will be at AAA this year (maybe AA).

2. Walker was added to the 40 man.

3. Walker has a 34.8% K rate last year (AA) and over a 40% (SSS) in Arizona.

4. From all accounts I've heard, his arm is Ben Revere-like (ok, maybe not that bad).

5. The Twins have Arcia, Sano, Vargas, Park, a White Sox player I refuse to name on principle (see also a former broken down White Sox third baseman who....[rant redacted]......

 

I fail to see how the Twins have mishandled him (other than maybe a Spring Training invite, but the guy isn't beating out the mashers we have who are out of options....why jerk him around).

 

It isn't like we're talking about Berrios here...time is what ABW needs (that and plate discipline....and maybe a good football....that worked for Revere, right?).