Chances Are..........

[Jham]

Is this an ABW thread, a Twins lack of embracing money ball thread, or a personal preference for evaluating prospects thread?  

The first two are pretty tired.  The Twins are advancing him each year despite his lack of progress in his problem areas, I'm not sure what the Twins should do differently.  It's not like rushing him or holding him back would really tell us anything, as continued failure or success would probably just tell us he has unbelievable power but little pitch recognition/poor contact.

 

The whole point of money ball is to find traits that are undervalued by the market.  Buy low, sell high.  If all the teams are looking at OBS and K/BB, then the Twins have no advantage in those markets, being a middle of the road payroll team.  Hence our continued search for Scott Diamonds in the rough.  Finding the guys that the metrics can't single out would be a form of money ball, or lottery, depending on how you look at it.  Billy Bean was ridiculed for his unconventional roster construction at first.  Ultimately, his best teams, and our best teams were the ones with players that looked great both on paper and on the field (as most great players do).

 

I've found that prospects are hard to evaluate period.  1) the stats are skewed by competition making them harder to trust and compare.  Look how much stats fluctuate in September (no fact check) when you're playing a good team that is in a race vs. a bad team shelling out AAA players.  Or Spring Training.  Minor leagues tend to have a similar disparity except over the course of season.  I think this is the main problem scouts have with ABW.  The notion is that he mashes fastballs and bad pitchers, but whiffs repeatedly against breaking balls and good pitchers.  In the Majors, all the pitchers are good and all can throw a breaking ball.  I have never seen him play, save for an at bat or four.  I can't tell you how he hits against better competition.  

 

Mostly, I evaluate prospects based on scouting reports of people close to the game.  I've been burned by impressive stat lines (Liam Hendricks for 1).  National scouting reports are often misleading based on the amount of players they have to cover.  I tend to look closer at organizational comments and actions.  Especially those of the minor league managers.  Mientkiewicz stated that Rosario's bat was MLB ready despite his unimpressive hitting line in AA.  He also said Buxton's wasn't despite the solid production.  It helps if you can read the stat line, but it's more helpful if you watch them play every day and know how those stats are accumulated.  Finally, I take into account the opinions and counter-opinions of my esteemed Twinsdaily posters!
 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

I thought that too.  Walker has yet to repeat a level, got added to the 40-man roster, and we haven't acquired a MLB outfielder who could potentially block him (although I guess signing Park and moving Sano could have a similar effect, if it sticks).

 

I guess the Walker boosters just want more respect in prospect rankings, some here have him lower but Sickels has him at #8, Seth at #10, etc.  We have a deep system, so it's hard to make a case for him much higher than that right now, no matter how you evaluate them.

 

 

[BoomBoom]

 

1. Walker will be at AAA this year (maybe AA).

2. Walker was added to the 40 man.

3. Walker has a 34.8% K rate last year (AA) and over a 40% (SSS) in Arizona.

4. From all accounts I've heard, his arm is Ben Revere-like (ok, maybe not that bad).

5. The Twins have Arcia, Sano, Vargas, Park, a White Sox player I refuse to name on principle (see also a former broken down White Sox third baseman who....[rant redacted]......

 

I fail to see how the Twins have mishandled him (other than maybe a Spring Training invite, but the guy isn't beating out the mashers we have who are out of options....why jerk him around).

 

1) After draft (2012) the question was about usable power.  Power worked in rookie ball!

2) After Rookie ball the question was about usable power in the Midwest League.  Power worked (MVP)!

3) After MWL (A ball)  the question was about usable power in pitcher friendly Florida State League.  Power worked (All Star MVP)!

4) After FSL (high A) the question was about usable power against advanced pitching in upper minors (AA).   Power worked (more than double the next teammate)!

5) After AA the question was about usable power against advanced Arizona Fall League pitching.  Power worked (5 HRs in 20 games)!

6) Spring Training is about pitchers and hitting results are understandably minimized. Now Walker's usable power is ignored ironically.  But Walker is 6 for 15 (nonetheless) in Spring Training games (against MLB pitching) with 2 doubles and 4 HRs.  Power worked! 

 

I don't think TN is questioning the Twins handling of Walker, just hoping they don't overlook his upside in the near future.  Neither Vargas or Arcia has shown the power potential of Walker.  Both of those guys had great minor league peripheral data and struggled.  Don't let that be your deciding factor because the "Topic title" peripherals tell you that Walker will fail.  He has been beating those odds at every level (see above).  Just like they shouldn't treat Buxton's upcoming promotion based on Hicks history.  [2 different players]

[BK432]

 

I like to think there isn't much of a blueprint for guys like him not making it.  Mainly because no one can think of a guy like him in history.  3 consecutive years of leading your league in HRs and RBI and TB and XBH and ISO and not making it.  Cecil Fielder is the last MLB player to win a HR and RBI title (2/3 of the triple crown) in consecutive seasons (1990 & 1991).  Ralph Kiner led the league in HRs for 7 straight years (1946 to 1952) and only led the league in RBI once in that span.  His teams were terrible by the way, even with his lifetime .398 OBP.  Ryan Howard did it in 2006 and 2008 on his way to 1 world title and several close calls in his hay day.  Production never lies.  It is what it is!   Chances are speculators sometimes fall victim to the truth, because they don't believe what they see in front of them.  They see the K's and become blinded by the production because of the "Chances are" potential.  That's the beauty of prospect dreaming though.  We all see potential through different color lenses.  

 

It's my opinion that you are focusing on the wrong indicators, but we shall see. As a Twins fan I hope you're right.

 

[LimestoneBaggy]

 

I don't think TN is questioning the Twins handling of Walker, just hoping they don't overlook his upside in the near future.  Neither Vargas or Arcia has shown the power potential of Walker.  Both of those guys had great minor league peripheral data and struggled.  Don't let that be your deciding factor because the "Topic title" peripherals tell you that Walker will fail.  He has been beating those odds at every level (see above).  Just like they shouldn't treat Buxton's upcoming promotion based on Hicks history.  [2 different players]

 

I understand where you and TN are coming from here, but in evaluating a player, you can't just overlook such a glaring deficiency (even in light of that beautiful power...sweet beautiful power).

 

When you look at ABW in sum total (power, speed, option years, warts, etc.), I think the Twins are watching him in the optimal manner. Let's see how he does against AAA pitching and with another year under his belt. The K rate is the reason they've not rushed him. They like the power potential; they added him to the 40-man. In summary, this is the type of player you slow-play a bit. See what you have and how he responds. Especially in light of the current roster crunch. He's not getting everyday at bats if he made the 25-man....why not let him develop and see where it goes.

 

 

 

[BoomBoom]

 

I understand where you and TN are coming from here, but in evaluating a player, you can't just overlook such a glaring deficiency (even in light of that beautiful power...sweet beautiful power).

 

They like the power potential; they added him to the 40-man. In summary, this is the type of player you slow-play a bit. See what you have and how he responds. 

 

I believe Walker needs to fail outright in order to get better.  They have left him at every level for a full year and allowed him to have incredible offensive seasons.  That success to me causes young prospects to minimize their faults mentally.  They work on those faults, but not at the expense of losing their strengths (even temporarily).  Especially when the success is being the very best in all of AA (HRs & RBI).  

 

The Twins have used the same gameplan / approach for Walker every year.  Don't promote.   I think the Twins just like Walker, need a new approach if they want different results.  Guarantee his power failures so he can see what really needs to be corrected.  We are speaking as evaluator's and not athletes.  Every young athlete we critique on this board is pressing to do what they do well.  Arcia & Vargas expect to be power hitters and press to do so (causing failure).  Buxton is trying to press to be the contact hitter he is suppose to be (causing failure).  Kepler is not pressing to be the power hitter people want and is experiencing success.  His failures came in the lower levels when he was pressing.  

 

They should have pushed Walker IMO and created the necessary failures that are predicted in his game (power shortage).  It's not that he strikes out.  It's that those strike outs will be magnified at the MLB level and his Power will be nullified.  If he hit 40 HRs and 125 RBI with 225 SO,  criticism would be limited.  The definition of insanity...............  Goes for player and club IMO

[Thrylos]

 

  Let's get away from the "Chances are..." mindset and start trusting what we see (Production).

 

Sure.  Steve Balboni had some great "Production" (according to the metrics you are using for Walker) in the minors (and a few seasons in the majors) as well.   Matter of fact one might argue that Balboni was a better minor league player that Walker, because he had a .301/.399/.553 34 HR, 122 RBI season in Nashville in 1980, numbers that Walker can only dream of.   Pretty similar gloves as well.

 

So that is Walker's ceiling right now.  Based on his "Production".