2016 Twins Projected WAR

[nytwinsfan]

Below I've attempted to project the Twins' players' values this season in terms of WAR. Note, generally a team needs in the high 30s or low 40s in total WAR to make the playoffs, although that varies based on a lot of things, including how hits and runs are bunched together, as well as competition in division, etc.  The idea is to look back at these projections at the end of the season, see how I did, and hopefully learn a little bit about where my doubtlessly numerous biases lie (e.g., overestimating prospects, underestimating the value of position on WAR, overestimating 2nd or 3rd year improvements, underestimating decline with age, etc.). And it is just fun. Obviously, feel free to provide your own projections or critique mine.

 

NOTE, if you don't like using WAR, then simply ignore this post and go post elsewhere. Please don't waste the time of those of us who find WAR a useful (albeit imperfect) metric for value by explaining why you don't like it. 

 

Position

Suzuki - C - 0.4 WAR

Park - DH/1B - 1.5 WAR

Mauer - 1B/DH - 1.3 WAR

Dozier - 2B - 2.6 WAR

Escobar - SS - 1.9 WAR

Plouffe - 3B - 1.2 WAR (before being traded)

Sano - LF/3B - 3.9 WAR

Rosario - RF - 1.8 WAR

Buxton - CF - 4.7 WAR (more than half of which will come from defense).

Kepler - LF - 1.0 WAR (after Plouffe is traded)

Murphy - C - 0.9 WAR

Arcia - Misc. - 0.3 WAR

Santana - Misc. - 0.4 WAR

Nunez - Misc. - 0.3 WAR

Remaining - neg. 0.6 WAR

Total Position WAR: 21.6

 

Starting Pitching

Hughes - 2.5 WAR

Santana - 1.6 WAR

Gibson - 2.4 WAR

Duffey - 2.4 WAR

Milone - 0.6 WAR (about half season)

Berrios - 1.4 WAR (about half season)

Total SP WAR: 10.9

 

Relief Pitching

Perkins - 1.0 WAR

May - 1.2 WAR

Jepsen - 0.6 WAR

Remaining - 1.1 WAR

Total RP WAR: 3.9

 

Total Team WAR: 36.4

 

 

[DaveW]

First thought at a quick glance: I don't see how Hughes out performs Santana by that much.

 

Also team totals of WAR are a flawed way to guess how a team will do overall IMO. But it's a fun excersize and I like that you put in the effort. Buxton as a near 5 WAR player would

Be amazing!!!!

[Otto von Ballpark]

For reference, this would be about an 84 win team.  Fangraphs has us projected to win 78 right now, you can see their player-by-player WAR breakdown here:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=8

 

Biggest difference between yours and Fangraphs right now is Buxton (they have him at 1.6 WAR, versus your 4.7).  Also Kepler (they have him at 0.2).  I notice Fangraphs doesn't have Park projected yet either.

[drjim]

 

For reference, this would be about an 84 win team.  Fangraphs has us projected to win 78 right now, you can see their player-by-player WAR breakdown here:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=8

 

Biggest difference between yours and Fangraphs right now is Buxton (they have him at 1.6 WAR, versus your 4.7).  Also Kepler (they have him at 0.2).  I notice Fangraphs doesn't have Park projected yet either.

 

This strikes me as correct. Buxton will be the big swing player between slightly below .500 and a low/mid 80s win team. What pushes them from there to high 80s is better performance from rotation, slightly better years from Rosario/others, an unexpected big season from Mauer, or another leap from Sano.

 

I'm very bullish on Buxton this year, so I have their baseline around 82-83, and would bet the over. One big reason is I think the org depth that could/should contribute this year is underrated and not captured well in predictions.

[gunnarthor]

Interesting post.  Another way of looking at it is that the Twins amassed about 28 WAR last year. So you want to improve by about 10 WAR over last year.  You can do that in a couple ways - play better players or don't play bad players.

 

The most immediate thing that jumps out is how bad Danny Santana was last year (-2.2 WAR).  So having Escobar put up a 2 WAR season could be a 4 WAR swing.  The other big holes were Nolasco (-0.8) and Hunter (-0.8 although b-r and fwar disagree here).  But the Twins should have upgrades over both.  I agree that the team's fortunes will depend mostly on how the younger players perform.  

[nytwinsfan]

 

This strikes me as correct. Buxton will be the big swing player between slightly below .500 and a low/mid 80s win team. What pushes them from there to high 80s is better performance from rotation, slightly better years from Rosario/others, an unexpected big season from Mauer, or another leap from Sano.

 

I'm very bullish on Buxton this year, so I have their baseline around 82-83, and would bet the over. One big reason is I think the org depth that could/should contribute this year is underrated and not captured well in predictions.

I think Buxton can contribute 2 to 2.5 WAR on D alone. Add in some additional WAR for position and baserunning, and I'm not actually projecting him to hit that amazingly.

[nytwinsfan]

 

 

Interesting post.  Another way of looking at it is that the Twins amassed about 28 WAR last year. So you want to improve by about 10 WAR over last year.  You can do that in a couple ways - play better players or don't play bad players.

 

The most immediate thing that jumps out is how bad Danny Santana was last year (-2.2 WAR).  So having Escobar put up a 2 WAR season could be a 4 WAR swing.  The other big holes were Nolasco (-0.8) and Hunter (-0.8 although b-r and fwar disagree here).  But the Twins should have upgrades over both.  I agree that the team's fortunes will depend mostly on how the younger players perform.  

 

Yeah, that's fair.  D. Santana was also really good in 2013. I'm pretty sure his true ability is somewhere in between 2014 and 2013. But yes, having Sano, Escobar, May and E. Santana for a full year, not having Hunter, and then having Park and Buxton for all or most of a year (and Kepler and Berrios for part of a year) are the big differences.  Of course, if injuries hit, which they almost certainly will, the projections for those players can become defunct pretty fast. So in a way, this projection is MY best case scenario, with little or no injuries (which again is extremely unlikely).

[ScooterDance]

 

I think Buxton can contribute 2 to 2.5 WAR on D alone. Add in some additional WAR for position and baserunning, and I'm not actually projecting him to hit that amazingly.

 

Yeah, there's a reason he's got "superstar" projections. Cliche 5 tool yada yada. Kid should contribute all over the diamond. If his hit tool can catch up, this could be the year he ascends to stardom.

[nytwinsfan]

Speaking of Buxton. Wow. Jim Callis is still a huge believer:  http://m.mlb.com/news/article/162621682/byron-buxtons-case-as-baseballs-top-prospect?topicid=151437456

[Brock Beauchamp]

Buxton posting a 2.5 dWAR would put him in the range of #4-8 in all of MLB most seasons.

 

Can Byron Buxton do that? Sure. Can Byron Buxton do that in 2016? Eh, I'm skeptical of that happening.

 

I'd be thrilled if he posted a dWAR in the 1.5-2.0 range in 2016.

[Mike Sixel]

If he spends 6 weeks in AAA, it will be hard to get over 1.5 dWAR, imo.

 

I do agree, and I think I have commented on other threads so I apologize if I am repeating myself.....

 

Esco for Santana is a 3.5-4+ increase in WAR

Murphy will play more, and that would add about .5 WAR

 

I have no idea how Park will do, and I don't trust the RP to put up much value. Take out lucky sequencing in May, and it still looks like an 80-82 win team to me.

 

Edit:

Even w/o Park, only 4 teams have more DH WAR projected on FG......

 

[drjim]

 

Speaking of Buxton. Wow. Jim Callis is still a huge believer:  http://m.mlb.com/news/article/162621682/byron-buxtons-case-as-baseballs-top-prospect?topicid=151437456

 

Money quote in this article when thinking about next year.

 

 

He didn't immediately dominate in the Majors, batting .209/.250/.326, though in his defense he was 21 and had just 60 games of experience above Class A Advanced when he first arrived in Minnesota.

 

60 games is just so few reps, makes sense that he would struggle. I really think it clicks next year if he can avoid injury.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The most immediate thing that jumps out is how bad Danny Santana was last year (-2.2 WAR).  So having Escobar put up a 2 WAR season could be a 4 WAR swing.

Technically, Escobar already had a 2 WAR season last year, so it's not quite that simple to add 4 WAR.  

 

According to Fangraphs, our shortstops were a cumulative +2.6 WAR in 2015:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=6&season=2015&month=38&season1=2015&ind=0&team=8&rost=0&age=0

 

And that was with Escobar and Nunez both producing at a rate of 5-6 WAR per full season.  A little regression from both of them probably cancels out Santana's negative value at the position.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Technically, Escobar already had a 2 WAR season last year, so it's not quite that simple to add 4 WAR.  

 

According to Fangraphs, our shortstops were a cumulative +2.6 WAR in 2015:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=6&season=2015&month=38&season1=2015&ind=0&team=8&rost=0&age=0

 

And that was with Escobar and Nunez both producing at a rate of 5-6 WAR per full season.  A little regression from both of them probably cancels out Santana's negative value at the position.

 

good points.

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

Buxton will figure it out this season. IMHO he should be given the CF job on opening day, and be given a long leash. If given a fair chance, he will succeed.