The stock market

[gunnarthor]

So Trump is going to dismantle banking regulations.  Buy big banks guys - at least until the next economic crisis the deregulation causes.  

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Anyone looking to invest in SnapChat when it goes public?

http://money.cnn.com/2017/02/02/technology/snapchat-ipo-filing/index.html

Not me, though I'd take a closer look before giving a firm "no".

 

Like other social media platforms, my biggest concern would be their path to monetization and later growth of that monetization.

 

Facebook has been stellar in that regard, which is why I invested in them not long after their IPO (around a year later, IIRC).

 

Everyone else has been ****ing terrible at monetization.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

SnapChat is uber popular with my generation and younger.... And most have stuck with them while others tried to copy their model like Instagram and Facebook. It does scare me that they have an issue making money and don't really have a plan to generate more revenues. 

FWIW, Instagram is older than Snapchat.

 

Or is that what you said? Now that I read your post again, not sure.

[Vanimal46]

 

FWIW, Instagram is older than Snapchat.

 

Or is that what you said? Now that I read your post again, not sure.

I'm not an Instagram user, but I thought I heard they tried making a "SnapChat" feature on their platform that didn't work out well. Could be wrong about that. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I'm not an Instagram user, but I thought I heard they tried making a "SnapChat" feature on their platform that didn't work out well. Could be wrong about that. 

Yeah, they've been dabbling with integrating more Snapchat-esque features, for sure.

 

Which makes sense, as the Snapchat style of conversation is the ONLY form of social media Facebook (who owns three of the four largest social media platforms in the world) doesn't currently dominate.

 

Also, Facebook owning three of the four largest social media platforms is why I bought into them a few years back. Seriously, they're the only company in the world who has this **** figured out.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Correction, Facebook owns the three largest social platforms. I thought Snapchat had slipped by Instagram but that hasn't happened (yet).

 

Most Americans don't realize it but Facebook owns WhatsApp, which has 1.2 billion monthly active users.

 

It's simply not very popular here in the States.

 

By comparison, Twitter (now fifth place) has 320 million monthly active users.

 

Facebook itself is still king of the world with almost 1.9 billion monthly active users.

[Brock Beauchamp]

This is why I invested in Facebook. This has been their trend in earnings reports for quite some time.

 

Quarter---------Earnings---Expected Earnings

02/01/2017-----1.24--------1.11
11/02/2016-----0.88--------0.77
07/27/2016-----0.76--------0.62
04/27/2016-----0.57--------0.44

01/27/2016-----0.59--------0.50

11/04/2015-----0.36--------0.35

 

They beat the consensus every quarter (in addition to the consensus showing considerable growth YoY). I'd have to check but I believe that trend goes back 2+ years.

 

They know how to make money. They're the only social platform who knows how to do it.

[Willihammer]

Whatsapp is cool, I've used it before. Instagram is kinda interesting. Snapchat - I installed it last year and for the life of me I don't understand wtf all the fuss is about. What am I doing wrong.

Edited February 3, 2017 by Willihammer

[Vanimal46]

 

Whatsapp is cool, I've used it before. Snapchat is kinda interesting. Snapchat - I installed it last year and for the life of me I don't understand wtf all the fuss is about. What am I doing wrong.

You're not asking for nudes..... Just kidding! Most of the time it doesn't provide much value, but I enjoy sending specific friends snaps of what I'm doing compared to posting on Facebook.

[Willihammer]

 

You're not asking for nudes..... Just kidding! Most of the time it doesn't provide much value, but I enjoy sending specific friends snaps of what I'm doing compared to posting on Facebook.

Why not get nudes via text? I guess I don't understand what value is adding by using the app versus just texting.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Why not get nudes via text? I guess I don't understand what value is adding by using the app versus just texting.

 

Value? hahahahahahaha.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Whatsapp is cool, I've used it before. Instagram is kinda interesting. Snapchat - I installed it last year and for the life of me I don't understand wtf all the fuss is about. What am I doing wrong.

I don't use Snapchat either. It's basically a personal messaging service. Unlike normal social media, you form groups and communicate directly with them (or single friends). It's not a "broadcast" service like most social media. It's more private and closed.

 

I haven't found a use for it because the other social platforms do the job for me.

[Vanimal46]

 

Why not get nudes via text? I guess I don't understand what value is adding by using the app versus just texting.

Well, the picture or video goes away after up to 10 seconds, and with texting, it's permanently on that other person's phone.... Depends on how much you trust that other person I suppose. 

[Willihammer]

 

Well, the picture or video goes away after up to 10 seconds, and with texting, it's permanently on that other person's phone.... Depends on how much you trust that other person I suppose. 

Does it stop you doing a screen capture?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Does it stop you doing a screen capture?

No, and there are loads of services out there that enable you to grab the temporary data and download it permanently.

[Willihammer]

Ha! So I'm not just too damn old to "get it."

 

Nope, won't be buying SNAP.

[glunn]

Any thoughts on buying Disney around $109 per share?

[Mike Sixel]

I have waffled on Disney for months. I have some, and I sold some at a loss for tax reasons and FAFSA reasons. I know, not helpful.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Any thoughts on buying Disney around $109 per share?

I got into Disney around $100 as a safe bet stock. I wouldn't be in a rush to pick them up at $109.

 

Upside:

- Marvel and Star Wars are printing money

- The acquisition of MLBAM was a smart one

 

Downside:

- ESPN will continue to be marginalized and ABC isn't going to light the world on fire

- Marvel printing money won't last forever, the market is saturating

 

I consider Disney a light growth stock overall. Maybe it beats the market a bit but it won't outpace the market, IMO.

[glunn]

 

I got into Disney around $100 as a safe bet stock. I wouldn't be in a rush to pick them up at $109.

 

Upside:

- Marvel and Star Wars are printing money

- The acquisition of MLBAM was a smart one

 

Downside:

- ESPN will continue to be marginalized and ABC isn't going to light the world on fire

- Marvel printing money won't last forever, the market is saturating

 

I consider Disney a light growth stock overall. Maybe it beats the market a bit but it won't outpace the market, IMO.

Thanks, Brock. I like the fact that the call market seems bullish -- July calls at $115 were trading for $2.70 per share today. And if the stock does not hit $115 by then but stays around $110 then I can rinse and repeat.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Thanks, Brock. I like the fact that the call market seems bullish -- July calls at $115 were trading for $2.70 per share today. And if the stock does not hit $115 by then but stays around $110 then I can rinse and repeat.

It's not a bad bet. I don't see Disney dropping much unless the entire market drops with it.

[gunnarthor]

We own a bit of Disney.  It's a good safe stock - I think my grandkids will be watching Disney cartoons 30 years from now.  It has a nice dividend as well.  We bought at 108 and 93, IIRC.  I probably wouldn't jump in at 109 today if I overly cared about timing market (which I usually don't).  

[diehardtwinsfan]

Problem with Disney is that they are without question going to be affected by a recession, and even if the official numbers say otherwise, the economy is heading into a recession. Flip side is that they are pretty massive. They certainly won't crater like some stocks would in that scenario.

[gunnarthor]

They aren't recession proof but they bounced back pretty fast from the housing fiasco. The nice thing about Disney is that if the dollar gets weak, Disney World brings in a ton of international dollars as foreigners leap at the discount and things like their cartoons are always pretty popular. Parents buy those DVDs at Christmas time, recession or no recession. I'm still a little mad that I didn't buy into Disney a decade earlier when we really should have.

[glunn]

I am got into Disney at $109 then sold a July call at $115 for $2.70. 

I am also overweight oil. My sense is that things may go badly in the Middle East and this could reduce supply. Also, some of these stocks pay good dividends. How do people here feel about oil stocks?

[DaveW]

Dave, how do you invest in bitcoin? I'm looking at gbtc, for example....

I use Coinbase. Once you execute a few trades it ups your limit pretty quick.

 

It's pretty secure as well.

[DaveW]

WWE stock is one to buy

[gunnarthor]

 

I am got into Disney at $109 then sold a July call at $115 for $2.70. 

I am also overweight oil. My sense is that things may go badly in the Middle East and this could reduce supply. Also, some of these stocks pay good dividends. How do people here feel about oil stocks?

Ignoring ethics, I like oil right now.  We paid off my law school loans because of an oil stock.  We bought into some natural gas stocks a few years ago and made a second buy of the same stock as prices plummeted.  Now we are starting to see them jump a lot. Keeping in mind that I'm just a dumb guy on the internet, I keep expecting oil to have another major dip before a real big spike.  I very rarely try to time the market but I'm watching a stock named HP (Helmerich & Payne) pretty closely.  We bought in 06 and sold it in 2014.  If it falls into the 50s, I'll probably buy.  It's an oil rig company with a great dividend and good leadership.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Ignoring ethics, I like oil right now.  We paid off my law school loans because of an oil stock.  We bought into some natural gas stocks a few years ago and made a second buy of the same stock as prices plummeted.  Now we are starting to see them jump a lot. Keeping in mind that I'm just a dumb guy on the internet, I keep expecting oil to have another major dip before a real big spike.  I very rarely try to time the market but I'm watching a stock named HP (Helmerich & Payne) pretty closely.  We bought in 06 and sold it in 2014.  If it falls into the 50s, I'll probably buy.  It's an oil rig company with a great dividend and good leadership.

Interesting. I know nothing of oil, really.

 

When I started investing, my wife and I made a pact that we wouldn't invest in anything we find deplorable. That means no oil, gas, or banks, mostly.

 

I'm still kicking myself that I didn't invest in Wells Fargo after the scandal, though. That was an easy 20% gain and I knew it was going to happen.

[gunnarthor]

Interesting. I know nothing of oil, really.

 

When I started investing, my wife and I made a pact that we wouldn't invest in anything we find deplorable. That means no oil, gas, or banks, mostly.

 

I'm still kicking myself that I didn't invest in Wells Fargo after the scandal, though. That was an easy 20% gain and I knew it was going to happen.

I'm a non-profit attorney and we own tons of oil, gas and big banks. I figure my work offsets the damage to my soul. But we did balk at buying haliburtan.