Twins Arbitration Decisions Deadline

[Seth Stohs]

Yesterday, I wrote about the six players that the Twins have to make arbitration decisions on today. That deadline is now less than 9 hours away (11 p.m. central time)... 

 

I wanted to start this thread to continue discussing those eligible, but also a place where we'll post what the Twins do with the six players. 

 

At the Park press conference this morning, Doogie talked to Terry Ryan about this and Ryan told him that he thought they would tender contracts to all six. However, they have now added John Hicks and the roster is at 40. Maybe that might push the Twins into non-tendering one player. They could make trades. They could DFA others. Etc. 

 

So, below is a list of the players eligible. When the decisions are made, we'll update them here.

 

 

Trevor Plouffe - tendered

 

Kevin Jepsen - tendered

 

Tommy Milone - tendered

 

Casey Fien - tendered

 

Eduardo Escobar - tendered

 

Eduardo Nunez - tendered

 

[Seth Stohs]

One thing that is going on around this time is negotiating.

 

Here is a made-up example of what could be happening.

 

The Twins could contact Casey Fien's representatives and say, "OK, we will offer you $1.5 million for the 2016 season. If you accept it, great. We'll be thrilled and pencil you into the bullpen. If you decline it, we are going to non-tender you." In that case, Fien would become a free agent. So he will need to consider whether he can get $1.5 million (or more) on the free agency market. 

[Linus]

They should absolutely be doing this in a couple cases.

[ashbury]

One thing that is going on around this time is negotiating.

 

Here is a made-up example of what could be happening.

 

The Twins could contact Casey Fien's representatives and say, "OK, we will offer you $1.5 million for the 2016 season. If you accept it, great. We'll be thrilled and pencil you into the bullpen. If you decline it, we are going to non-tender you." In that case, Fien would become a free agent. So he will need to consider whether he can get $1.5 million (or more) on the free agency market. 

A meaningful insight.

 

What bothers me is that by this view, for a marginal reliever like Fien, dollars are a scarcer resource in the team's eyes than spots on the 25 man roster.

 

It's easy for me to tell other people how to spend their money, of course. But if they save $1M by signing Fien for $1.5M instead of $2.5M, does that really tip the balance toward assigning him that spot on the roster?

 

For a team that wants to contend in 2016, it seems to me that finding room for good players is the constraint that limits them. I can't believe that applying the $1M to another purpose is what's going to put them over the top.

 

For me, at this stage, if Fien isn't good enough to be on the team at $2.5M, he isn't good enough even at $0.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Awesome post, Ashbury. Agree 100%.

[drjim]

 

A meaningful insight.

 

What bothers me is that by this view, for a marginal reliever like Fien, dollars are a scarcer resource in the team's eyes than spots on the 25 man roster.

 

It's easy for me to tell other people how to spend their money, of course. But if they save $1M by signing Fien for $1.5M instead of $2.5M, does that really tip the balance toward assigning him that spot on the roster?

 

For a team that wants to contend in 2016, it seems to me that finding room for good players is the constraint that limits them. I can't believe that applying the $1M to another purpose is what's going to put them over the top.

 

For me, at this stage, if Fien isn't good enough to be on the team at $2.5M, he isn't good enough even at $0.

 

Fien has an option I believe, I would think $1.5 makes it more palatable to either option him or DFA him if he's terrible.

 

I'm personally not offended by starting with a handful of "mediocre" guys to start the season, see what sticks, and then move on if younger guys emerge. That is probably more preferable than locking in to multiple years for guys that have slightly better track records but really aren't much of a sure thing themselves.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Fien has an option I believe, I would think $1.5 makes it more palatable to either option him or DFA him if he's terrible.

 

I'm personally not offended by starting with a handful of "mediocre" guys to start the season, see what sticks, and then move on if younger guys emerge. That is probably more preferable than locking in to multiple years for guys that have slightly better track records but really aren't much of a sure thing themselves.

Fien does have an option remaining.

 

Why do you put "mediocre" in quotes?

 

And your bullpen plan sounds exactly like their 2015 approach. How did that work out?

[drjim]

 

Fien does have an option remaining.

Why do you put "mediocre" in quotes?

And your bullpen plan sounds exactly like their 2015 approach. How did that work out?

 

Terribly. Too many injuries and not enough young guys stepped up and the best reliever went in the tank at crunch time right when the bullpen looked like it was about the stabalize. Fien was acceptable duct tape for a while

 

I'm not sure throwing 3/15-18 type contracts is a better option but I wouldn't have a problem blowing out Fien and signing a handful of similar guys. Maybe they strike gold.

[ashbury]

Fien has an option I believe

If that's the deciding factor then I'd be content having him sitting on some other team's AAA roster.

[Seth Stohs]

100 minutes until the deadline...

[Otto von Ballpark]

Terribly. Too many injuries and not enough young guys stepped up and the best reliever went in the tank at crunch time right when the bullpen looked like it was about the stabalize. Fien was acceptable duct tape for a while

 

I'm not sure throwing 3/15-18 type contracts is a better option but I wouldn't have a problem blowing out Fien and signing a handful of similar guys. Maybe they strike gold.

3/15 type contracts are for Jepsen types, and he sure helped last summer. Why not add another one of those guys in FA this winter? It's not a 100% guarantee of anything, of course, but I don't know why people are applying that threshold to a $5 mil AAV signing anyway. I'd like our chances at putting up a good to great pen a lot more with that acquisition rather than a continuation of recently failed cheaper strategies.

[Otto von Ballpark]

100 minutes until the deadline...

I was about to make a joke about how relatively lame this deadline is, then realized I was still regularly checking this site for updates. I guess I too am relatively lame.

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

I was about to make a joke about how relatively lame this deadline is, then realized I was still regularly checking this site for updates. I guess I too am relatively lame.

 

You funny guy.

[sane09]

 

I was about to make a joke about how relatively lame this deadline is, then realized I was still regularly checking this site for updates. I guess I too am relatively lame.

Lame is a BAD thing?

Who knew?

[drjim]

3/15 type contracts are for Jepsen types, and he sure helped last summer. Why not add another one of those guys in FA this winter? It's not a 100% guarantee of anything, of course, but I don't know why people are applying that threshold to a $5 mil AAV signing anyway. I'd like our chances at putting up a good to great pen a lot more with that acquisition rather than a continuation of recently failed cheaper strategies.

It's not aav it's the years.

 

Jepsen is a great example. I agree he was good and liked the trade, but many were quite upset and he'll have his ups and downs this year and going forward.

 

That is locking in a roster spot.

[Gernzy]

I've been looking this morning but haven't found anything about who we offered contracts too. Anyone find anything?

[Seth Stohs]

 

I've been looking this morning but haven't found anything about who we offered contracts too. Anyone find anything?

 

I had forgotten that the only time transactions are announced is if there is actually a transaction. Meaning, if they had signed someone or non-tendered someone, those would have been announced. However, since they just tendered contracts to all six, there was no change in the roster. They don't make an announcement.

[Winston Smith]

Lame is a BAD thing?

Who knew?

It is if you are a horse!

[gil4]

 

I was about to make a joke about how relatively lame this deadline is, then realized I was still regularly checking this site for updates. I guess I too am relatively lame.

Liked by a bunch of lame people who are also checking for updates.  (Yeah, I'm on the list.)

[sane09]

It's all epidemic (that is intentional) now!

According to the STRIB:

"The Twins offered 2016 contracts to each of their six arbitration-eligible players by Wednesday’s 11 p.m. deadline. Eduardo Escobar, Trevor Plouffe, Eduardo Nunez, Kevin Jepsen, Tommy Milone and Casey Fien could have become free agents if the Twins had chosen not to tender contracts by the deadline".

 

All of us lame people can go to sleep, now.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

It's not aav it's the years.

Jepsen is a great example. I agree he was good and liked the trade, but many were quite upset and he'll have his ups and downs this year and going forward.

That is locking in a roster spot.

One 3 year contract for a weak bullpen with no new internal options immediately ready is hardly an onerous commitment.

 

Note that Jepsen himself is only controlled for one more season -- a multi-year FA RP signing now would nicely overlap with Jepsen in 2016 while our younger internal options are still working to reach MLB, and could effectively take Jepsen's place in 2017 if we wanted.

 

If you are really concerned about 3 years, MLBTR predicts Shawn Kelley to only get 2 years, and likely Mark Lowe too.  Or heck, you could probably give Sipp or Bastardo or whomever the same $12-15 mil total guarantee, just over 2 years instead of 3, if you are more concerned with years than AAV.