Fangraph's Prospect Projections

[markos]

Chris Mitchell released his top-100 prospects based on his KATOH projection system. The Twins have 5 names on the list, including the #1 prospect... but not the usual #1 prospect from the Twins system. Congratulations Mr. Kepler!

 

1) Kepler

18) Berrios

47) Buxton

82) Gordon

89) Polanco

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/katohs-top-100-prospect-list-for-2016/

[Mike Sixel]

Remember, KATOH is ONLY about stats....and the author admits this. But, we are about to be inundated with posts about how stupid this is.....

[dbminn]

 

Remember, KATOH is ONLY about stats....and the author admits this. But, we are about to be inundated with posts about how stupid this is.....

 

Agreed, Mike. Here's a link to Chris  Mitchell's "KATOH Primer", which people should read before slamming the rankings:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/a-primer-on-a-new-and-improved-katoh/

 

I can't remember who said this... and I paraphrase: Scouting and stats are like beer and tacos. Both are great on their own but they are better enjoyed together.

[Mike Sixel]

the article has a whole paragraph on this.....putting that aside, not surprised KATOH loves Kepler. He did everything KATOH loves (other than pure power) last year, at AA. 

 

Of course, I have an irrational prospect crush on him too.....

[dbminn]

 

the article has a whole paragraph on this.....putting that aside, not surprised KATOH loves Kepler. He did everything KATOH loves (other than pure power) last year, at AA. 

 

Of course, I have an irrational prospect crush on him too.....

That's what happens when a person just jumps to the table. I'm guilty.

[ashbury]

Well, I like Kepler about as much as anyone does, but #1 is too high. When I look at stats, every player is entitled to one out-of-sight good year, and one shrug-your-shoulders bad year, each of which I want to reduce in importance to the overall picture I'm forming of his chances as he moves up in difficulty of opponents faced, and in the fullness of time Kepler's 2015 is likely to look very much like the former. A stats-only based approach is likely to weight the most recent season heavily, so I suppose I'm not surprised to see him fare well in this listing. But #1? Phew, that's pretty rare air up there.

[gunnarthor]

I admit I don't think much of the KATOH system but it's nice to see 5 Twins on the list.

 

 

[Seth Stohs]

 

I admit I don't think much of the KATOH system but it's nice to see 5 Twins on the list.

 

Right... especially when on average, every team should have 3 1/3 prospects on the list, five is pretty solid.

[James Richter]

 

A stats-only based approach is likely to weight the most recent season heavily, so I suppose I'm not surprised to see him fare well in this listing. But #1? Phew, that's pretty rare air up there.

That's the major caveat of this list - not only is it stats-only, it's 2015 stats-only!

 

[Buford_T_Justice]

I've never heard of this projection before. I thought it had something to do with ranking the Pink Panther movies. Any of you old enough to remember Clouseau coming home at night?

 

"KATOOOOOHHHH....KATOOOOHHH...where are you my little friend?"

And then they beat the crap out of each other. Ah, good times.

[KGB]

 

Agreed, Mike. Here's a link to Chris  Mitchell's "KATOH Primer", which people should read before slamming the rankings:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/a-primer-on-a-new-and-improved-katoh/

 

I can't remember who said this... and I paraphrase: Scouting and stats are like beer and tacos. Both are great on their own but they are better enjoyed together.

I think including players height is interesting:

 

"Another interesting addition is player height, which immediately becomes the closest thing to scouting that’s incorporated into KATOH. Given the same stat line, taller players are generally more likely to succeed in the majors than their shorter counterparts."

 

I guess I own an apology to Blyleven for ripping him everytime he give a pitchers heigth.  Who knew he was just using advanced metrics

 

 

 

[Ncgo4]

This is a miserable, dastardly article based on what a player actually achieved. We know that's not what matters. What matters is what the manager and GM "thinks" might happen next. It's the reason Santana started at SS and ol' what's his name didn't. It's the reason Hunter stayed in right or Pinto....never mind. It's fun is what it is.

[twinssouth]

KATOH potato, it doesn't matter, it's great Kepler is getting respect.  The games I saw in Chattanooga, he was clearly the most athletic,  best player out there.  And that sweet swing, oh boy

[Dantes929]

 

Right... especially when on average, every team should have 3 1/3 prospects on the list, five is pretty solid.

Its even better.   You would expect an average ranking of those 3 1/3 to be 50 but our 5 comes out to 47.  Average for our top 3 comes out to 22.     Pretty good considering Sano and Rosario graduated.