Upside

[AlwaysinModeration]

I know that there are tons of prospects lists each year, and BP does a "top ten under 25" list each year. But here is a slightly different way to ask the question of how the full system--including major leaguers--stands. How would you rank the system in terms of "upside"...and by upside, I mean, the biggest, most likely potential to post the biggest WAR in the next 4-8 years? The reason I ask is that I think this is the valuation that should be used when evaluating trades.

 

It would take some research, but here is my gut thinking on it. Would be interested in others' thoughts.

 

1. Buxton

2. Dozier

3. Hughes

4. Santana

5. Berrios

6. Sano

7. Plouffe

8. Gibson

9. Gonsalves

10. Meyer

11. Hicks

12. Gordon

13. Mauer

14. Stewart

15. Rosario

16. Jay

17. Kepler

18. Polanco

19. Arcia

20. ABWII

 

Others?

[DaveW]

I would put Sano 3rd, and drop Meyer below hicks.

[USAFChief]

I'd have Sano on top, easily.

 

It's tough to say after that. In general, a few thoughts: move Hicks, Polanco Plouffe, and Arcia up some, Buxton down some.

[DaveW]

I'd have Sano on top, easily.

 

It's tough to say after that. In general, a few thoughts: move Hicks, Polanco Plouffe, and Arcia up some, Buxton down some.

I think buxton will have more WAR value due to his speed and defense in CF personally.

[BoomBoom]

Not sure how one computes WAR, but games played for me is an important factor when deciding key players to build around.  There can be guys who have an exceptional WAR but miss 30 games a year based on injury.  How important is that person to the building block if they can't stay on the field?  Several people made reference to that in regards to Tulo.  How important is durability in comparison to overall WAR?

 

A player like Buxton is way more valuble than an ABW in almost every way.  Walker has played in 94% of his minor league games in his 4 year career (most in Twins minor league system).  His teams win at a 64% rate, but he understandably is not as valued as a Sano or Buxton or many others.  

 

In short how important is durability and team winning percentage as it pertains to WAR?  This question references any player on the list (Not just ABW).  Does durability matter?

[cmb0252]

1. Buxton

2. Sano

3. Everyone else

[DaveW]

This thread is encouraging just in the fact that we have so many guys who are this close to the majors (or in the majors and still in their prime) to contribute now and in the near future. A similar thread like this re: the Tigers or Yankees would look pretty ugly.

[sane]

In your list, which Santana is ranked #4 and which Santana is unranked?

[DaveW]

In your list, which Santana is ranked #4 and which Santana is unranked?

Johan and Carlos respectively I am guessing

[sane]

Johan and Carlos respectively I am guessing

I am guessing that Carlos has a better future than Johan.

[AlwaysinModeration]

Yes, Ervin is ranked four, in my opinion, Danny not ranked.

 

WAR is a counting stat, so time on the field counts. And position matters a lot. CF and SS get bonuses for position difficulty, whereas DH gets less. It's why I think Sano has more uncertainty. If he is good at third, he can put up big seasonal numbers. If he is at DH, he will not get as high WAR counts.

 

I should clarify--I am looking for the highest single-season WAR by each of these players.

[sane]

If Danny Santana ranks lower in WAR than does Tyler Jay and Kohl Stewart, then IMO:

 

"War, huh yeah. What is it good for? Absolutely nothing, oh hoh, oh. War huh yeah. What is it good for? Absolutely nothing, say it again y'all. War, huh good God!!"

[Thrylos]

8 years (2016-2023) :

 

Sano
Polanco
Buxton
Minier
Diaz
Meyer
May
Berrios
Arcia
Gonzalves

[Badsmerf]

Buxton

Sano

Dozier

Berrios

Hughes

Gibson

Kepler

Jay

Polanco

Santana

Burdi

Stewart

Mauer

Rosario

Abw

Gonsalves

Chargois

[AlwaysinModeration]

If Danny Santana ranks lower in WAR than does Tyler Jay and Kohl Stewart, then IMO:

 

"War, huh yeah. What is it good for? Absolutely nothing, oh hoh, oh. War huh yeah. What is it good for? Absolutely nothing, say it again y'all. War, huh good God!!"

I am not so sure about Santana or Polanco as having big upside, but maybe I am wrong. Stewart is a big question mark right now, but I think his pedigree still indicates some real upside left--but certainly no sure thing. Jay, with the lack of track record starting falls into the same boat for me. Maybe May and Santana should be in my top twenty instead of Jay and Stewart, not sure.

[AlwaysinModeration]

8 years (2016-2023) :

 

Sano

Polanco

Buxton

Minier

Diaz

Meyer

May

Berrios

Arcia

Gonzalves

Polanco, Diaz, and Minier are all very high there. Diaz and Minier in particular, as corner guys forever away from the bigs...hard for me to see their likely path to a valuable season. What makes you so confident in them?

[Badsmerf]

I'm surprised so many have meyer on their lists. I don't believe he'll throw enough strikes to be a relief pitcher and will throw to many pitches to be a starter.

 

I also think plouffe and arcia will be traded, or they would be up there.

 

I anticipate these teams to be pretty good, with many players over 3 war. In two years this could be a world series team.

[DaveW]

I'm surprised so many have meyer on their lists. I don't believe he'll throw enough strikes to be a relief pitcher and will throw to many pitches to be a starter.

 

I also think plouffe and arcia will be traded, or they would be up there.

 

I anticipate these teams to be pretty good, with many players over 3 war. In two years this could be a world series team.

Yeah I'm pretty lukewarm on Meyer at this point, he's not exactly real young either. So the chances of him turning it back around seem a bit minimal, but here's to hoping.

[nicksaviking]

Considering Mauer and Ervin Santana will be in their late 30's and off of their current contracts in three years, I think things will have gone awry if they are among the team leaders in any capacity in 4-8 years.

[AlwaysinModeration]

Considering Mauer and Ervin Santana will be in their late 30's and off of their current contracts in three years, I think things will have gone awry if they are among the team leaders in any capacity in 4-8 years.

I was saying in the next 4-8 years, not excluding the first three years.

[Mike Sixel]

If in 3 years mauer accumulates more WAR than guys that we want to play for the next 8.....that's either Mauer being AWESOME, or really, really bad news, imo.

 

Buxton

Sano

Dozier

 

big giant gap

 

everyone else, probably if only looking at upside......Kepler or Plouffe