The Brian Dozier dilemma

[Monkeypaws]

Dilemma?

 

That sounds serious.

 

Today I enjoyed a tall, cold beer. That's how I feel about Dozier. All good.

[Brock Beauchamp]

The better team usually scores first? Really? Show me that stat.

Seriously?

[70charger]

 

Seriously?

 

I know it probably seems obvious, but maybe some simple explanation would be useful.

 

Over the course of the season, the better teams score more relative to the worse teams. Generally speaking, the teams that score more are therefore likely to score first more, even if scoring first is basically a coin flip. Simply put, if you score a lot, you'll score a lot early. If you score only a little, you'll score only a little early.

 

Therefore, assuming a normal distribution - and the hundreds of games played really does normalize these kinds of distributions - good teams score early more than bad teams. (They also score late more than bad teams. Because they just generally score more than bad teams.) So basing win probabilities on when teams score just isn't a good idea. Too much randomness for a single game, too much dependence on other factors for a whole season.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I know it probably seems obvious, but maybe some simple explanation would be useful.

 

Over the course of the season, the better teams score more relative to the worse teams. Generally speaking, the teams that score more are therefore likely to score first more, even if scoring first is basically a coin flip. Simply put, if you score a lot, you'll score a lot early. If you score only a little, you'll score only a little early.

 

Therefore, assuming a normal distribution - and the hundreds of games played really does normalize these kinds of distributions - good teams score early more than bad teams. (They also score late more than bad teams. Because they just generally score more than bad teams.) So basing win probabilities on when teams score just isn't a good idea. Too much randomness for a single game, too much dependence on other factors for a whole season.

Well said. It should also be noted that it works on defense, too. The better team is generally superior in preventing runs, which has the same negative effect on the inferior team.

[dxpavelka]

 

I don't see Bob Melvin being fired any time soon, and the Blue Jays are only one game under 500, which makes them contenders in the AL east.

Also just pulled up Rizzo's and Bryant's stats...Rizzo leads in almost every category: hr, avg, obp, slg, wRC+, etc. Sure Bryant leads in some (rbi, bb%), but Rizzo is clearly the better offensive player

Again-I didn't say anytime soon.  I said within 2 years.  You're right that Bob Melvin probably won't be f ired anytime soon, but if in 2 years his best hitter is Vogt and he's still batting 2nd he'll likely be long gone.  Chances are Vogt batting 2nd is more about Vogt being a good # 2 hitter than about Vogt being his BEST hitter.  Being contenders in the AL East just means you're not the Red Sox.  Rizzo's a pretty damn good ball player but I'd take Bryant over him in a heartbeat.  Better question is "why is one of the two not the cleanup hitter instead of Soler?"

 

[RealTwinsFan357]

Again-I didn't say anytime soon. I said within 2 years. You're right that Bob Melvin probably won't be f ired anytime soon, but if in 2 years his best hitter is Vogt and he's still batting 2nd he'll likely be long gone. Chances are Vogt batting 2nd is more about Vogt being a good # 2 hitter than about Vogt being his BEST hitter. Being contenders in the AL East just means you're not the Red Sox. Rizzo's a pretty damn good ball player but I'd take Bryant over him in a heartbeat. Better question is "why is one of the two not the cleanup hitter instead of Soler?"

We'll just have to agree to disagree on this one

[darin617]

Dozier bat second when Buxton makes it back. Mauer dropped to 7 or 8 until he can hit better for a long period of time.

I correct myself my top of the line up would be

1. Buxton

2. Rosario

3. Dozier

4. Sano

5. wild card here Oswaldo Arcia in a perfect world. Ploufee

6. Hunter/Hicks

7. Mauer

8. a different catcher than what is on the roster now

9. a different SS than what is on the roster now

 

[drjim]

 

Dozier bat second when Buxton makes it back. Mauer dropped to 7 or 8 until he can hit better for a long period of time.

I correct myself my top of the line up would be

1. Buxton

2. Rosario

3. Dozier

4. Sano

5. wild card here Oswaldo Arcia in a perfect world. Ploufee

6. Hunter/Hicks

7. Mauer

8. a different catcher than what is on the roster now

9. a different SS than what is on the roster now

 

Mauer is a better hitter than Rosario

 

Good luck with the rest of it.

[kab21]

Imo - Buxton should go down to the minors when he returns.  He was called up to fill a black hole (CF) even though he wasn't quite ready.  So far Hicks is claiming CF so the black hole is filled (for now) and Buxton can work on stuff.

 

Batting order

Dozier

Hunter

Mauer

Sano

Rosario/Plouffe

Rosario/Plouffe

Suzuki - unless a trade happens

Escobar/Santana

Hicks - this kind of makes Dozier a #2 hitter the 2nd time through and makes a lot more sense than getting a far inferior hitter the most AB's by needing to make Dozier #2 or #3

[dxpavelka]

 

We'll just have to agree to disagree on this one

Check out J Maddon's lineup Monday night.  Schwarber 2, Bryant 3, Rizzo 4, Soler 5.  I don't see a better combination for them.