Deolis Guerra

[notoriousgod71]

Another Pirates/Twins reclamation project.

 

7 IP 6 H 0 ER 7 K so far on the season.

[nicksaviking]

I was pretty unhappy he never got a MLB look. He should have at least gotten an audition last year.

[mickeymental]

that much-maligned johan santana trade actually took in a pretty good haul (two current major leaguers and a guy who tossed a perfecto).

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

that much-maligned johan santana trade actually took in a pretty good haul (two current major leaguers and a guy who tossed a perfecto).

That's a pretty low standard.  Gomez took off, but only after 4+ years of MLB service.  Guerra just now debuted, as a reliever, more than 7 years after the trade.  The guy who tossed one of the flukiest perfecto's ever, on his second organization after the Twins, washed out of MLB the following season.

 

It certainly looks better than it did in the spring of 2011 (primarily due to Gomez), I will grant you that.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Guerra was pretty good in AAA this year too, although he's been in AAA a few years already (although he only had 70 career appearances at AAA entering the season).  25 games, 37 IP, 1.23 ERA, 5.2 H/9, 0.2 HR/9, 2.0 BB/9, 9.1 K/9.

[mickeymental]

 

That's a pretty low standard.  Gomez took off, but only after 4+ years of MLB service.  Guerra just now debuted, as a reliever, more than 7 years after the trade.  The guy who tossed one of the flukiest perfecto's ever, on his second organization after the Twins, washed out of MLB the following season.

 

It certainly looks better than it did in the spring of 2011 (primarily due to Gomez), I will grant you that.

guerra arrived for his 19-year-old season; gomez arrived for his 22-year-old season. one is a borderline star (finished 9th and 16th in mvp voting) who, for the most part, has been in the majors ever since. the other, still only 26, may yet be a star. they were PROSPECTS and four to seven years seems like a pretty appropriate standard. how long should it have taken for them to establish themselves? and, actually, if buxton's 22-year-old 2016 season matches gomez's first year with the twins, he'd be off to an ok start.

 

if anything, the twins made a good deal but were too impatient with their haul (humber's perfecto was indeed a fluke, although there were many who ironically pointed to it as yet another sign of front-office malpractice on behalf of the twins). but seven years later i'd say maybe you have it backwards: the trade looks even better relative to johan's unfortunate health problems.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

guerra arrived for his 19-year-old season; gomez arrived for his 22-year-old season. one is a borderline star (finished 9th and 16th in mvp voting) who, for the most part, has been in the majors ever since. the other, still only 26, may yet be a star. they were PROSPECTS and four to seven years seems like a pretty appropriate standard. how long should it have taken for them to establish themselves? and, actually, if buxton's 22-year-old 2016 season matches gomez's first year with the twins, he'd be off to an ok start.

 

if anything, the twins made a good deal but were too impatient with their haul (humber's perfecto was indeed a fluke, although there were many who ironically pointed to it as yet another sign of front-office malpractice on behalf of the twins). but seven years later i'd say maybe you have it backwards: the trade looks even better relative to johan's unfortunate health problems.

It hasn't just taken Guerra over 7 years since the trade to establish himself -- it's taken him over 7 years to simply APPEAR in MLB.  Or even deserve to, really.  That doesn't help even the most patient organization (and indeed, Guerra re-signed here a minor league free agent at least once, I think).

 

Even Gomez's 4 years to productivity wasn't really a good deal for the Twins, who were present and future contenders at the time of the Santana deal.  They weren't in full rebuild mode.

 

Johan's side of the deal wasn't that bad.  He gave the Mets 3 pretty darn good seasons, plus about half of a decent 4th season before he was done for good.  15.2 WAR.  Not great bang for their buck, but far from a disaster.  Especially since the only guy they probably miss is Gomez, who took awhile to become an impact player anyway.

 

And of course, we could have used Santana's 7 WAR in 2008, and then collected two extra picks for the Mike Trout draft of 2009... even if we didn't get Trout, keeping Santana was probably the better play unless we got overwhelmed by an offer (and the Mets offer wasn't overwhelming).

[drjim]

 

It hasn't just taken Guerra over 7 years since the trade to establish himself -- it's taken him over 7 years to simply APPEAR in MLB.  Or even deserve to, really.  That doesn't help even the most patient organization (and indeed, Guerra re-signed here a minor league free agent at least once, I think).

 

Even Gomez's 4 years to productivity wasn't really a good deal for the Twins, who were present and future contenders at the time of the Santana deal.  They weren't in full rebuild mode.

 

Johan's side of the deal wasn't that bad.  He gave the Mets 3 pretty darn good seasons, plus about half of a decent 4th season before he was done for good.  15.2 WAR.  Not great bang for their buck, but far from a disaster.  Especially since the only guy they probably miss is Gomez, who took awhile to become an impact player anyway.

 

And of course, we could have used Santana's 7 WAR in 2008, and then collected two extra picks for the Mike Trout draft of 2009... even if we didn't get Trout, keeping Santana was probably the better play unless we got overwhelmed by an offer (and the Mets offer wasn't overwhelming).

 

Agree on this. In hindsight the trade wasn't a complete disaster, but the best move would have been to keep him for the year and let him walk.

 

Also forgotten is that Gomez turned into an OK year of Hardy (what happened after that need not be repeated) and Mulvey flipped into a year and 2 months of decent production from Rauch. Obviously you want more, but that was some value that certainly contributed to a division title in 2010.

[mickeymental]

 

It hasn't just taken Guerra over 7 years since the trade to establish himself -- it's taken him over 7 years to simply APPEAR in MLB.  Or even deserve to, really.  That doesn't help even the most patient organization (and indeed, Guerra re-signed here a minor league free agent at least once, I think).

 

Even Gomez's 4 years to productivity wasn't really a good deal for the Twins, who were present and future contenders at the time of the Santana deal.  They weren't in full rebuild mode.

 

Johan's side of the deal wasn't that bad.  He gave the Mets 3 pretty darn good seasons, plus about half of a decent 4th season before he was done for good.  15.2 WAR.  Not great bang for their buck, but far from a disaster.  Especially since the only guy they probably miss is Gomez, who took awhile to become an impact player anyway.

 

And of course, we could have used Santana's 7 WAR in 2008, and then collected two extra picks for the Mike Trout draft of 2009... even if we didn't get Trout, keeping Santana was probably the better play unless we got overwhelmed by an offer (and the Mets offer wasn't overwhelming).

i'm not a big believer in war, but fangraphs shows the 22-year-old gomez at 2.7 in his first year with the twins -- 77th best position player in all of baseball (and third best on the twins). as for guerra, 26 isn't old for a pitcher to make his debut (looks like maybe the twins shoulda hung to him just one more year!).

 

anyway, when you trade a great 29-year-old pitcher for an all-star-to-be outfielder and a teen pitcher that eventually makes the majors, well, that's a pretty good deal -- as long as your organization has some patience (which the twins didn't show with gomez, guerra OR hardy). so it wasn't their evaluation of talent that was lacking, it was that they weren't willing to wait (or, in gomez's case, that they didn't seem to like his personality).

 

i will agree with you on this: considering that all four (five counting hardy) are no longer with the twins, keeping santana for one more year would have probably been the best move. but that's really just evidence of hindsight being 20/20.

 

by the way and according to fangraphs, gomez's war since leaving the mets is 23.9.

[dbminn]

I'm sure the Pirates are thrilled about losing Miguel Sano.

[sane]

Keeping Johan for the last season would have been turmoil, because he wanted OUT!!!!

[nicksaviking]

Keeping Johan for the last season would have been turmoil, because he wanted OUT!!!!

He would have gotten out a year later and he would have had the whole league to bid on his services. He said he wanted to play for a contender and get paid, but he wasn't making a stink, Santana was never a problem child.

 

Also the Twons could have used that comp pick to draft that Trout guy.

[biggentleben]

 

He would have gotten out a year later and he would have had the whole league to bid on his services. He said he wanted to play for a contender and get paid, but he wasn't making a stink, Santana was never a problem child.

Also the Twons could have used that comp pick to draft that Trout guy.

 

Like 24 other teams. Instead they got Kyle Gibson.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

as for guerra, 26 isn't old for a pitcher to make his debut (looks like maybe the twins shoulda hung to him just one more year!).

26 is quite old for any player to *debut*.  Some players don't become good MLB players until age 26 or later, but very rarely do good MLB players debut at age 26.  In Guerra's case, his MLB debut came almost 10 years to the day after his original signing, and he only had one serious injury (his 8th full pro season).  That goes well beyond patience.

 

i will agree with you on this: considering that all four (five counting hardy) are no longer with the twins, keeping santana for one more year would have probably been the best move. but that's really just evidence of hindsight being 20/20.

Not hindsight at all -- that was my position at the time.  The Twins were a contender, Santana was an ace that we could have used (especially after trading Garza), and draft pick compensation rules were good for us at the time.

 

There was really no reason to trade him at that moment unless we were overwhelmed with an offer.  And a still-unpolished Gomez plus a lotto ticket plus a couple fungible AAA starters was definitely not overwhelming.  (Sickels prospect grades at the time put that package roughly equivalent to Gomez plus Tyler Robertson, Anthony Swarzak, and Jeff Manship.)

 

Gomez's outcome alone probably makes it not-disastrous, but it was mainly a panic move, because we were going to lose Santana and we didn't have an opening day CF to replace Hunter.  I doubt TR would have made it -- if it wasn't Smith's doing, he was letting the inmates run the asylum a little too much.

[mickeymental]

 

26 is quite old for any player to *debut*.  Some players don't become good MLB players until age 26 or later, but very rarely do good MLB players debut at age 26.  In Guerra's case, his MLB debut came almost 10 years to the day after his original signing, and he only had one serious injury (his 8th full pro season).  That goes well beyond patience.

 

Not hindsight at all -- that was my position at the time.  The Twins were a contender, Santana was an ace that we could have used (especially after trading Garza), and draft pick compensation rules were good for us at the time.

 

There was really no reason to trade him at that moment unless we were overwhelmed with an offer.  And a still-unpolished Gomez plus a lotto ticket plus a couple fungible AAA starters was definitely not overwhelming.  (Sickels prospect grades at the time put that package roughly equivalent to Gomez plus Tyler Robertson, Anthony Swarzak, and Jeff Manship.)

 

Gomez's outcome alone probably makes it not-disastrous, but it was mainly a panic move, because we were going to lose Santana and we didn't have an opening day CF to replace Hunter.  I doubt TR would have made it -- if it wasn't Smith's doing, he was letting the inmates run the asylum a little too much.

unnecessary trade? maybe. panic move? hardly. guerra (2), gomez (3), mulvey (4) and humber (7) were all ranked among baseball america's top mets prospects in november 2007. they also rated gomez the best athlete, best outfield arm, best outfielder and fastest baserunner in the mets system. and, as previously mentioned, he became the third-best position player in his first year with the twins, at least according to war.

 

under typical circumstances, ten years is a long time to wait for a prospect. but guerra apparently signed at age 16, which is not exactly typical. by the way, baseball prospectus says that, between 2005-2009, the AVERAGE age of a major league debut was 24.4. so guerra is an outlier but not by all that much ...

[Otto von Ballpark]

That average debut age is inflated by guys like Bernier. Guys who stick in MLB usually debut well under that average age unless perhaps they are college draftees.

[darin617]

Nice to see he made to the majors. This just shows you where the Twins need to be spending some money. They need pitching coaches in the organization that can turn that chunk of coal into a diamond. So how many pitchers have left MN and went to Pittsburgh and with the right help turned their careers around.