Taylor Rogers as the #1 LHRP option going forward

[jokin]

 

When it gets to the beat writers it almost always comes from a nudge from an inside source. Though Mike B has been known to engage in some unfounded speculation from time to time.

 

Yep.  Once it finally gets down to that level, you know it's become common knowledge around the club as a viable option worth considering, at least to some minds, anyway.

 

Molitor appeared to have slightly jumped the gun for the Twins' FO preferred timing with the promotion for Sano on June 16, just as Gardy did with Meyer back in ST, 2014; perhaps we have a small "whisper campaign" going on down in the locker room, just to get more of the "obvious" out there in print.

[Captain Hindsight]

 

Yep, as I wrote in the other thread:

 

"In the wake of the Gilmartin decision, I think the Twins need to think about their LHP prospect options a little more creatively."

 

I still can't understand why you would let a former 1st round   pick/LHP prospect just walk   away in favor of the others the Twins chose to protect... or in the case of Duensing, re-sign.

 

Before we get all up in arms over the Twins letting Gilmartin go, lets take a closer look at his numbers. He doesn't pile up K's (6.75/9), has a high BB rate (3.75), low BABIP (.239), high LOB% (85.9%), low Hr/9 (.38) which leads to a not so good xFIP of 4.30 and he has accomplished all this in almost exclusively low leverage situations. He is about as obvious regression candidate you can find this side of Blaine Boyer. Not a huge loss, and we picked up a similar arm in the Rule V, Jr Graham.

 

As for Duensing, I got nothing.

[jokin]

 

. He is about as obvious regression candidate you can find this side of Blaine Boyer. Not a huge loss, and we picked up a similar arm in the Rule V, Jr Graham.

 

As for Duensing, I got nothing.

 

A lot better than Boyer, but certainly no panacea.  Still a lot better guy to protect than Wheeler and Darnell, it's not even close. 

 

And, as far as Graham goes, Gilmartin is a lefty, not a righty, who had a MiLB history of getting LHB out.  But there are some similarities, both are draftees of Atlanta, an organization that knows a little about pitching prospects.  As far as pedigree goes, Gilmartin was a 1st round pick in the same year (2011), that Graham was picked by the Bravos in the 4th round.

 

Gilmartin MiLB career vs. LHB:  K/9 9.45 K/BB 11.67 OPS .515

Graham  MiLB career  vs. LHB  K/9 7.50 K/BB  3.33  OPS .787

 

There's a reason teams hang on to any possible LHP that might be of help (as evidence, just look at the Twins and their peculiar 11-year love affair with Duensing!).  Graham probably has better stuff than Gilmartin has right now, but no reason why you shouldn't have ended up with both on the team this year.

 

[jokin]

From MiLB wires.  

 

 

 

Taylor Rogers: Taylor Rogers dominates Pawtucket again
Taylor Rogers - S - MIN - Jun. 30 - 3:41 pm et
Twins pitching prospect Taylor Rogers tossed seven innings of three-hit ball Monday in a win for Triple-A Rochester.
Monday's effort was a continuation of a game that began on June 5 but was suspended by rain. The left-hander is now 2-0 with a 2.63 ERA in four starts against Pawtucket. He's pitched at least seven innings in six of his last seven appearances. Rogers leads the International League with 103 1/3 innings pitched this season.

 

This kind of data probably plays big in certain circles- it certainly looks impressive on the surface (and never mind that Pawtucket sits near the bottom of the IL in team batting numbers).  Lots of folks love seeing a left-handed "innings-eater" to eventually have as an option to plug into the back-end of a starting rotation.  Is this the kind of information that keeps the Twins FO crossing their fingers and ignoring the underlying peripherals that suggest there's trouble ahead for Rogers in MLB as a starter?

[TRex]

 

  Is this the kind of information that keeps the Twins FO crossing their fingers and ignoring the underlying peripherals that suggest there's trouble ahead for Rogers in MLB as a starter?

 

After having to give starts to likes of PJ Walters, Andrew Albers, Kris Johnson, Anthony Swarzak, Cole DeVries, Pedro Hernandez, and Yohan Pino in the last three years, what is your hurry to start Roger's career as a reliever?

 

While we look flush with starting pitchers, that can change in a hurry due to injury or ineffectiveness (or regression to the mean).

[John Kelsey]

 

After having to give starts to likes of PJ Walters, Andrew Albers, Kris Johnson, Anthony Swarzak, Cole DeVries, Pedro Hernandez, and Yohan Pino in the last three years, what is your hurry to start Roger's career as a reliever?

 

While we look flush with starting pitchers, that can change in a hurry due to injury or ineffectiveness (or regression to the mean).

 

He can fill a huge hole and help the team right now as a reliever, not as a starter. The big league team getting wins is the point, after all. 

[jokin]

Another late inning debacle in KC last night.  Was Molitor keeping Gibson in on Friday night well past 100 pitches and a major scoring threat in the works, as well as toying with a series of unsatisfactory options in the late inning last night painting a vivid enough picture that things are going to have to change drastically in the Twins pen if they are going to have any chance to compete in the second half?

 

And now we have Chris Mitchell from Fangraphs jumping on the bandwagon, while making a rock-solid case why Rogers should be given a shot to step into the breach.  Although Mitchell writes about Taylor Rogers as if he just happened upon another unknown oddity (and why not, fellow Fangaphs writer, Kiley McDaniel had all but written him off in ST as any kind of key contributor for the Twins any time soon), whereas, the conclusion Mitchell here reaches, and the title of his article aren't too subtle...  in case anyone in the Twins FO might have decided just to skip past his tome, it kind-of is designed to get their attention:

 

Lefties Can't Touch Taylor Rogers

 

 

 

If one were to go to Minor League Central, navigate to the 2013 High-A pitching stats against lefty batters, and sort by SIERA with a minimum of 30 innings (against lefties), Taylor Rogers — a pitcher in the Twins organization — ranks first. If one were to repeat this exercise for Double-A in 2014, using a minimum of 35 innings, Rogers also rises to the top. For Triple-A in 2015 with a minimum of 25 innings? Rogers again!

I’ll admit I chose those innings limits somewhat arbitrarily to make sure Rogers’ name was at the tippy-top, but you get the idea: Rogers has baffled minor league lefties. Since he began his pro career back in 2012, Rogers has spun an excellent 2.01 SIERA against southpaws.

Unless you’re Twins fan, there’s a good chance you’ve never even heard of Rogers. As a 11th round draft pick with unspectacular stuff, he’s never gotten run in prospect circles. And despite his dominance against lefties, his overall minor league numbers fall short of elite. His 2.01 SIERA against lefties has come with a 4.36 mark versus right-handers. He’s posted ERAs of 2.86, 3.29 and 3.18 the last three years. Those numbers are good, but aren’t overly exciting coming from a guy who’s been consistently old for his level.

Unsurprisingly, Kiley McDaniel didn’t rank Rogers all too favorably heading into the year. He ranked him the 21st best prospect in the Twins system and gave him a 40 FV — the equivalent of a swing man or middle reliever. Here’s what Kiley had to say about Rogers at the time:

Surrounded on this list by power relievers, it’s hard to get excited about Rogers, but he has a chance to be a big league starter. He sits 90-93 and hits 94 mph with an average curveball and fringy change that needs to improve, though he has the command to make it work as a back-end starter.

Simply put, Rogers isn’t a very exciting prospect. He throws in the low-90s, his secondary stuff isn’t anything special and he didn’t reach Triple-A until his age-24 season. Literally every organization has multiple guys who fit that mold. However, Rogers’ performance against left-handed hitters makes him more interesting than most nondescript Triple-A pitchers.

With an ERA in the low 3’s, Rogers is one of the better starting pitchers in Triple-A right now. More likely than not, he’ll get a crack at the majors at some point this year. And looking at the Minnesota’s bullpen, Rogers should be able to provide the Twins with a nice little upgrade for the stretch run, even if it’s only as a lefty specialist.

I feel pretty confident in saying that Rogers isn’t going to make any All-Star teams. He may not even be good enough to hack it as a back-end starter. But given his minor league performance, it’s hard to think he couldn’t at least make it as a LOOGY. That’s not nothing. And for a 11th round pick who’s an afterthought on his organization’s prospect list, becoming a LOOGY wouldn’t be a bad outcome at all.

 

 

And Mitchell left out some of "Rogers Greatest Hits" against LHBs, like his 35/2 K/BB for example, and his .174 BA and 0.63 WHIP.  Come onTerry, I know you know this stuff, if not now, when?

[jokin]

LaVelle announces O'Rourke is getting the call from Rochester for LHRP major league tryouts (and got some facts wrong- he apparently conflated his AA numbers with his AAA numbers):

 

 

 

The Twins' bullpen shuffle continues. They optioned lefthander Aaron Thompson to Class AAA Rochester after Monday's game. To replace Thompson on the roster, the Twins selected the contract of lefthander Ryan O'Rourke from Rochester.

Yes, that Ryan O'Rourke.

His numbers -- 5.40 ERA in 22 games -- are not attractive. But it looks as if he's going to be a lefty specialist. And that's where he excels. O'Rourke held lefties to a .172 batting average with the Red Wings, and his strikeout rate of 15.0 per nine innings jumps out. Apparently, his fastball is deceptive and he has a nice slider. I know Doug Mientkiewicz thinks highly of him.

So as long as he's not exposed to righthanders, O'Rourke could help the bullpen.

What this also could mean is that the Twins might lean on Brian Duensing more. Duensing has been the subject of scorn from fans, but he's on a run of eight scoreless innings.

 

 

What are his chances of succeeding, vs. Darnell and Rogers?  Here are their AAA stats vs. lefties in 2015:

 

O'Rourke:

 

IP 7.1 ERA 7.37 K/9 22.1 H/9 3.68 BA .126 WHIP 1.09 GO/AO 0.25 K/BB 18:5

 

Darnell:

 

IP 13 ERA 2.08 K/9 8.31 H/9 10.4 BA .154 WHIP 1.54 GO/AO 1.30 K/BB 12:5

 

Rogers:

 

IP 36 ERA 1.50 K/9 9.00 H/9 5.23  BA .178 WHIP 0.64 GO/AO 2.10  K/BB 36:2

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

I don't get it........

 

And, putting Rogers in the bullpen now doesn't mean he doesn't start later (see, you know, the Cardinals, the team that just keeps winning).

[jokin]

 

I don't get it........

 

And, putting Rogers in the bullpen now doesn't mean he doesn't start later (see, you know, the Cardinals, the team that just keeps winning).

 

 

Yeah, and why are their still some folks on this board that dismiss a proven strategy for its best arms that has worked very well over a significant period of time...? oh, and they just keep winning... whatever happened to "imitation is the sincerest form of flattery"?  That's another proven strategy that has worked well over a significant period of time.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Yeah, and why are their still some folks on this board that dismiss a proven strategy for its best arms that has worked very well over a significant period of time...? oh, and they just keep winning... whatever happened to "imitation is the sincerest form of flattery"?  That's another proven strategy that has worked well over a significant period of time.

 

I think the problem here is that Rogers still has potential (and value) as a starter.  I'm not necessarily in disagreement with you that his ultimate destination may be the pen, but I think the first problem you have is that O'Rourke is only going to be a reliever, and in terms of facing lefties, is ready as well.  I have no problems with this approach.  Now if O'Rourke fails, I think the idea of Rogers coming up to be the LOOGY has merit, but I do think that he's better served continuing to start.  I wouldn't be surprised if that is Roger's preference as well. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

I think the problem here is that Rogers still has potential (and value) as a starter.  I'm not necessarily in disagreement with you that his ultimate destination may be the pen, but I think the first problem you have is that O'Rourke is only going to be a reliever, and in terms of facing lefties, is ready as well.  I have no problems with this approach.  Now if O'Rourke fails, I think the idea of Rogers coming up to be the LOOGY has merit, but I do think that he's better served continuing to start.  I wouldn't be surprised if that is Roger's preference as well. 

 

How does making him a RP this year stop him from later being a starter, like the Cardinals do? And, why would Rogers be a pure Loogy?

 

If Rogers starts more than a handful of games the next 2-3 years, how many guys would have had to get hurt and/or fail? I'd think he would want to be a MLB player full time, not bounce between AAA and the majors the next 3 years......but maybe not.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I think the problem here is that Rogers still has potential (and value) as a starter.  I'm not necessarily in disagreement with you that his ultimate destination may be the pen, but I think the first problem you have is that O'Rourke is only going to be a reliever, and in terms of facing lefties, is ready as well.  I have no problems with this approach.  Now if O'Rourke fails, I think the idea of Rogers coming up to be the LOOGY has merit, but I do think that he's better served continuing to start.  I wouldn't be surprised if that is Roger's preference as well. 

Pretty sure Rogers would be happy to relieve if it got him to MLB this year.  Just like I am sure Glen Perkins was initially fine with bullpen duty back in 2006.  Seems it's only veteran MLB starters that object to it.

 

If we want to audition O'Rourke first, that's fine, but I would have started the process sooner.  A good April with terrible peripherals shouldn't have bought Thompson 2+ months leash.

[nytwinsfan]

 

How does making him a RP this year stop him from later being a starter, like the Cardinals do? And, why would Rogers be a pure Loogy?

 

If Rogers starts more than a handful of games the next 2-3 years, how many guys would have had to get hurt and/or fail? I'd think he would want to be a MLB player full time, not bounce between AAA and the majors the next 3 years......but maybe not.

Completely agree. Give him a chance in the bullpen, mainly against lefties. But unlike O'Rourke (who I have no problem using as a strict LOOGY), Rogers would be fine to leave in for an inning or two with a righty or two as well.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

And, why would Rogers be a pure Loogy?

As good as he has been against LHB in the minors, he's been pretty mediocre against RHB.  Not unlike O'Rourke, really.

[Mike Sixel]

 

As good as he has been against LHB in the minors, he's been pretty mediocre against RHB.  Not unlike O'Rourke, really.

 

Yup, but isn't that true of most minor league starters that become RP?

[drjim]

To be clear, are people comparing Rogers to Lynn, Wacha and Martinez?

 

Strikes me as a significant talent gap but might necessitate a different strategy. First and foremost, while Rogers might (might) be better than Duensing at the moment, he's not exactly blowing down the doors to reach the majors like the Cardinals pitchers were.

[Mike Sixel]

Comparing the situation, not the talent. You are sort of making my point, it just isn't likely he's ever more than a spot starter, not with the guys in MN, plus Berrios, plus Gonsalves, plus Hu, plus Stewart, plus, plus, plus.......

[jokin]

 

To be clear, are people comparing Rogers to Lynn, Wacha and Martinez?

 

Strikes me as a significant talent gap but might necessitate a different strategy. First and foremost, while Rogers might (might) be better than Duensing at the moment, he's not exactly blowing down the doors to reach the majors like the Cardinals pitchers were.

 

To be clear, absolutely not.  You are far better than just another strawman gambit.  The comparisons are made in the sense of how best to both develop and exploit the best available talent on the Twins roster and in the greater system, and then maximizing that utility with the big club in both the short and long term.

 

Frankly, none of the 3 immediate LHP options in AAA are all that inspiring, but through the first half of the season, Rogers looks the most like a major league pitcher. And Mike just said it best in the previous post, it's not like his chances for cracking the starting rotation are going to get better any time soon, in all likelihood they never will. The Twins have for now, opted for the least inspiring, but perhaps the most intriguing option, instead.  But there's no doubt that O'Rourke will be the strictest of LOOGYs, and even in the most limited of roles, he is the wildest of wild cards in the Twins pitching card deck. At the moment he's at best, a curiosity, but not exactly a bringer of a lot of hope for multiple positive outcomes- but hey!, if he works out, there still might be room for another LHP before long. 

 

And speaking of roles, Duensing's last 8 IP notwithstanding (artificially bolstered by a .111 BABIP), his K/ 9 is still at a career low- while his BB/9, WHIP and FIP are all at career highs.  And no split advantage, OPS vs. LHB is .837... vs RHB is .748.   Not sure if has any role for much longer, but he certainly could stay hot in his current inexact "role", but is that what contenders usually expect to win games consistently with?

[drjim]

So we can cite the Cardinals model of how to develop pitchers without actually looking at which pitchers were developed that way, otherwise that is a strawman? Seems reasonable. The Cardinals used that method because they were dealing great talents and limited space in the rotation, similar to how the Twins developed (for example) Santana, Liriano and Baker.

 

Rogers just isn't in that class. Here is why I have no problem with him remaining in the rotation in AAA for the immediate future:

 

1. He is doing fine, but not exactly forcing his way into the majors.

 

2. He could be (perhaps even likely is) better than Duensing, but that is far from a sure thing, especially in the immediate future.

 

3. The Twins have depth at SP at the moment, but that goes quick, and I actually think he would be the 7th starter at the moment. That could change quick if Berrios has a couple more starts, but Berrios probably hasn't passed him yet as far as this season is concerned if a start or 3 is needed. Citing Gonsalves, Stewart and Hu is especially meaningless when thinking about this season and probably next year too.

 

4. The role Rogers will break into in the pen will likely not be a LOOGY, especially if O'Rourke can do it, but as a multiple batter/inning guy. Getting reps as a starter does nothing to retard that development.