Miguel Sano How Soon Is Now?

[formerly33]

 

So isn't the question of merging of threads up to the discretion of the moderators?  I don't see how it's any of my, or of yours, concern?  I'm here to discuss Twins baseball issues that are currently of the most interest to myself.  You've previously discussed the matter of overlapping topics in the area of TD where it belongs, why bring it here?  I'd much rather hear what you have to say about what to do with Sano than to non-topically grafitti-ize the thread.

Yes, thank you for getting me back on topic ... and sorry. You are right. Um ... Sano. I'd have to say that I'm with the people who want to wait a bit longer. I'm beginning to develop a mild case of PTSD when it comes to calling up prospects. But I won't go into detail - the reason I said nothing before is because this is a great discussion and I'd just be repeating others.

[Ncgo4]

The Twins cannot score runs. For nearly 2 months it seemed the Twins hit in clusters, scoring a lot more runs that their statistics (BA, OBP, etc.) would predict. Now we're back to seeing hits scattered around in a more random way and run production is in the toilet. In yesterday's game we no, as in ZERO, starters with a batting average above .267 and only 4 above .260. This is one of the worst, maybe THE worst Twins offensive teams EVER.

 

In Chatanooga we have three batters who over 70 games total in June have batted over .320 with 16 dingers and almost 60 RBI's. What can possibly be the question? If they call them up and they collectively go into the crapper, could it be any worse? Bring them up as a set right now.

[Pitz]

I'd like to see him get promoted to AAA today and spend a week there. My only rationale is that I'm heading to a Red Wings game on Friday and having him in the lineup would increase my excitement level about their lineup exponentially. After he goes 5-5 with 3 homers and 2 doubles for the Red Wings on Friday, call him up.

[jokin]

 

I'd like to see him get promoted to AAA today and spend a week there. My only rationale is that I'm heading to a Red Wings game on Friday and having him in the lineup would increase my excitement level about their lineup exponentially. After he goes 5-5 with 3 homers and 2 doubles for the Red Wings on Friday, call him up.

 

 

 

Trevor Plouffe could have his annual trip to the DL at any time now.

 

If Sano doesn't get called up for the upcoming series in Kansas City to replace Vargas or the 13th pitcher, something like your scenario might be just how it happens- with Sano getting his shot like Buxton did when Hicks went down, only flying in from Rochester, not Chattanooga..

[jokin]

Sano's impressive opposite-field blast on Sunday, that completely left the park.  Note the shift employed against him and the announcers' frustrated reactions to Sano once again wreaking havoc on the Montgomery pitchers' strategy,  by going the opposite way, with power.

 

"That guy's impressive."

 

"... At this point, if you're Doug Mientkiewicz... you tell Sano... hey, by the way, I don't want you to...  completely...  stop... pulling everything..." 

 

 

 

 

http://www.milb.com/r/video?content_id=208094283&topic_id=&sid=milb&tcid=vpp_copy_208094283&v=3

 

Adam Brett Walker's postgame comment on what Sano is doing:

 

 

"I think Miguel's doing a pretty good job using the whole field. You see teams starting putting shifts on him, and he' s been able to take some pitches, get some hits to right. He's been driving the ball to right field very well lately. I think he's been doing a good job of taking what's given to him, and then when they make a mistake, he's been taking advantage of it lately."

 

[jorgenswest]

Should the Twins give Sano time in RF this season?

 

There is no one under contract that is a lock for RF. It might be the best spot. The Twins have had too many other guys that they put in the OF with little recent play there in the minors. They can avoid that be giving Sano some experience in RF now. They can do that by moving him to AAA or playing Harrison at 3B and giving him experience in AA. It doesn't need to be every game, but it would be valuable if he had 30 games in RF this year.

[Dman]

 

Should the Twins give Sano time in RF this season?

There is no one under contract that is a lock for RF. It might be the best spot. The Twins have had too many other guys that they put in the OF with little recent play there in the minors. They can avoid that be giving Sano some experience in RF now. They can do that by moving him to AAA or playing Harrison at 3B and giving him experience in AA. It doesn't need to be every game, but it would be valuable if he had 30 games in RF this year.

 

I like that idea.  Switch Harrison and Sano and get him some experience in the outfield so he can gain some position flexibility.  I don't see the Twins moving Ploufe anytime soon so Sano might need to play other spots to get started.  I still think Sano is our future first baseman but giving him some reps at other positions wouldn't be a bad thing.

[Willihammer]

After watching Hicks, Vargas, and now Buxton struggle in their callups, I don't know why you'd not funnel every batting prospect through AAA first. Let them face Tommy Milone on his optional assignment before they embarass themselves against front line starters in the bigs.

[jokin]

 

Should the Twins give Sano time in RF this season?

There is no one under contract that is a lock for RF. It might be the best spot. The Twins have had too many other guys that they put in the OF with little recent play there in the minors. They can avoid that be giving Sano some experience in RF now. They can do that by moving him to AAA or playing Harrison at 3B and giving him experience in AA. It doesn't need to be every game, but it would be valuable if he had 30 games in RF this year.

 

I like that idea.  Switch Harrison and Sano and get him some experience in the outfield so he can gain some position flexibility.  I don't see the Twins moving Ploufe anytime soon so Sano might need to play other spots to get started.  I still think Sano is our future first baseman but giving him some reps at other positions wouldn't be a bad thing.

 

There's no doubt that Sano has the arm for RF, I would hope that he doesn't end up being wasted at 1B until he's 30.  

 

But it definitely wouldn't be the Twins style, in the case of Plouffe, to dump a guy they stuck with for years, eventually finding a place for him to play.  Besides, there is still too much instability at SS to put another rookie on that side of the infield during a pennant race. In addition, they still have two years of team control left with Plouffe.  Perhaps they are thinking to ease the transition to the position over the next year and a half, with Plouffe sharing some of the duties at both 3rd and 1st to give Sano reps at 3rd and RF.  

[jokin]

 

After watching Hicks, Vargas, and now Buxton struggle in their callups, I don't know why you'd not funnel every batting prospect through AAA first. Let them face Tommy Milone on his optional assignment before they embarass themselves against front line starters in the bigs.

 

Because at least one of the propspecitve call-ups is possibly going to come out of the gates swinging a hot bat, like Santana or Vargas last year (you left that 2014 part out of your analysis), or at least demonstrate a competent bat like Rosario this year?

 

And that no matter how it shakes out, it can't be much worse than what the Twins are currently producing with their veterans?

[howieramone2]

After watching Hicks, Vargas, and now Buxton struggle in their callups, I don't know why you'd not funnel every batting prospect through AAA first. Let them face Tommy Milone on his optional assignment before they embarass themselves against front line starters in the bigs.

Buxton didn't look embarrassed to me in his first 37 AB's.

[jokin]

 

Buxton didn't look embarrassed to me in his first 37 AB's.

 

 

Humbled, maybe. Daunted, perhaps.  But embarrassed, no.

[bird]

 

After watching Hicks, Vargas, and now Buxton struggle in their callups, I don't know why you'd not funnel every batting prospect through AAA first. Let them face Tommy Milone on his optional assignment before they embarass themselves against front line starters in the bigs.

 

Makes sense to me. I'm continually perplexed that, whenever we have a bad spell, we get the clamor for the next prospect to be called up. The logic is always the same: the shiny new toy will come up and immediately contribute more than the current guy(s). And time after time, that logic is proven to be faulty, as one after the other proves, in the immediate term, to be less effective than the last guy. With very few exceptions, mind you.

 

Sure, a lot of these prospects will eventually be very productive. Some will eventually be game-changers. But look at the reality: Buxton, Meyer, Arcia, Vargas, Tonkin, Pinto, all among the guys who people were clamoring to see promoted and highly critical of the FO when doing so. The mantra has often been, how can we tolerate watching Boyer, Hunter, Pelfrey, Escobar, Nunez, Herrmann, Robinson, Milone, Nolasco, etc. when we have these better options?

 

The irony is that the same people who criticize the FO and impatiently call for the immediate promotion of the prospects are the people who are most vociferous about winning now, the least patient about incremental improvements, the harshest critics when things go sub-optimally.

 

Sano is just another example. Sure, he may come up and be great, or at least good like Rosario. But maybe he comes up and hits like Vargas or worse, just like Buxton has hit worse than Robinson, or like Vargas is a worse option (at the moment!) than Nunez at DH. 

 

Personally, I love all the call ups, because, despite the current record, I can see a benefit in running the risk of falling out of contention in order to set the team up for 2016. But this idea is blasphemous to some of the FO's harshest critics, right? 

 

So, regarding Sano. Do you call for his immediate promotion to the big club because you're so sure he'll immediately produce more offense than Vargas, or even Nunez? Did you think the same thing about Arcia? Meyer? Buxton? Are you one who is still absolutely sure about Pinto? Were you one of the critics when Vargas was in Rochester? These are not clear-cut decisions when we're factoring in trying to win games right now.

 

[Pardon My Dinger]

Mauer to Right. Sano to First. Got any more brainbusters?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

After watching Hicks, Vargas, and now Buxton struggle in their callups, I don't know why you'd not funnel every batting prospect through AAA first. Let them face Tommy Milone on his optional assignment before they embarass themselves against front line starters in the bigs.

To be fair, Vargas didn't really struggle straight out of AA last year.  With the lack of BBs and abundance of Ks, it didn't look sustainable, but he certainly didn't struggle overall those two months.

 

I'm fine with giving prospects some AAA time too, but as you allude to, the end result might not be any different.  The big adjustment needs to be made in MLB.

[Loosey]

 

Buxton didn't look embarrassed to me in his first 37 AB's.

No, he looked like a 21 year pulled out of AA.  Which was to be expected.  Hopefully the Thumb/wrist heals up quickly and he can get some more needed reps so he can get off to good start next year with the big club.

[jokin]

 

 

Personally, I love all the call ups, because, despite the current record, I can see a benefit in running the risk of falling out of contention in order to set the team up for 2016. But this idea is blasphemous to some of the FO's harshest critics, right? 

 

So, regarding Sano. Do you call for his immediate promotion to the big club because you're so sure he'll immediately produce more offense than Vargas, or even Nunez? Did you think the same thing about Arcia? Meyer? Buxton? Are you one who is still absolutely sure about Pinto? Were you one of the critics when Vargas was in Rochester? These are not clear-cut decisions when we're factoring in trying to win games right now.

 

Who are all these people you accuse of being "absolutely sure", about any of the above prospects?  More imaginary strawmen, no doubt.

 

Prospects have 3 options for good reasons.  To find out if/when they're ready to help the big club, and if necessary, to return them to the minors to work on their areas of deficiency.  Using an option on deserving prospects, particularly when there are obviously lesser talents/major roster holes at the major league level, can certainly be part of the process in both winning now, as well as in better-setting-up 2016. And.... What is so bad about finding out sooner rather than later if Sano, et al, might have debuts like Rosario is having, or that Santana and Vargas had in 2014?  

[Dman]

 

There's no doubt that Sano has the arm for RF, I would hope that he doesn't end up being wasted at 1B until he's 30.  

 

But it definitely wouldn't be the Twins style, in the case of Plouffe, to dump a guy they stuck with for years, eventually finding a place for him to play.  Besides, there is still too much instability at SS to put another rookie on that side of the infield during a pennant race. In addition, hey still have two years of team control left with Plouffe.  Perhaps they are thinking to ease the transition to the position over the next year and a half, with Plouffe sharing some of the duties at both 3rd and 1st to give Sano reps at 3rd and RF.  

 

I must have had a brain block I typed wrong I meant third not first for Sano.   I do agree with your analysis on Plouffe.  Sano will have to be eased in some way seems like outfield would be one way to get him here sooner.

[drjim]

 

Makes sense to me. I'm continually perplexed that, whenever we have a bad spell, we get the clamor for the next prospect to be called up. The logic is always the same: the shiny new toy will come up and immediately contribute more than the current guy(s). And time after time, that logic is proven to be faulty, as one after the other proves, in the immediate term, to be less effective than the last guy. With very few exceptions, mind you.

 

Sure, a lot of these prospects will eventually be very productive. Some will eventually be game-changers. But look at the reality: Buxton, Meyer, Arcia, Vargas, Tonkin, Pinto, all among the guys who people were clamoring to see promoted and highly critical of the FO when doing so. The mantra has often been, how can we tolerate watching Boyer, Hunter, Pelfrey, Escobar, Nunez, Herrmann, Robinson, Milone, Nolasco, etc. when we have these better options?

 

The irony is that the same people who criticize the FO and impatiently call for the immediate promotion of the prospects are the people who are most vociferous about winning now, the least patient about incremental improvements, the harshest critics when things go sub-optimally.

 

Sano is just another example. Sure, he may come up and be great, or at least good like Rosario. But maybe he comes up and hits like Vargas or worse, just like Buxton has hit worse than Robinson, or like Vargas is a worse option (at the moment!) than Nunez at DH. 

 

Personally, I love all the call ups, because, despite the current record, I can see a benefit in running the risk of falling out of contention in order to set the team up for 2016. But this idea is blasphemous to some of the FO's harshest critics, right? 

 

So, regarding Sano. Do you call for his immediate promotion to the big club because you're so sure he'll immediately produce more offense than Vargas, or even Nunez? Did you think the same thing about Arcia? Meyer? Buxton? Are you one who is still absolutely sure about Pinto? Were you one of the critics when Vargas was in Rochester? These are not clear-cut decisions when we're factoring in trying to win games right now.

 

I've always appreciated the mix of negativity and fatalism with the big league club combined with unrealistic expectations and optimism with prospects. Can't be a good way to be a baseball fan.

 

But to answer you last question - I think Sano would be better right now than other options for that additional bat of DH, some RF, some 3B. I like to roll with the most talented (Buxton, Sano), more patient with others like Vargas.

[jorgenswest]

It is really hard to hit major league pitching.

 

There is often discussion about a player being ready. That isn't possible. You can't learn to hit major league pitchers in the minors. You can dominate your level. You can show a low chase rate. You can show improved judgement of the strike zone. A player can show they are ready for the next challenge.

 

There are countless careers where players struggled in their first 1000 plate appearance before showing readiness.

 

The Twins invested that time into Dozier and Plouffe. Hunter's defense allowed them to be patient with his offense. It took Morneau quite a while. That is the norm. 

 

Expect Sano to struggle. They can't wait until he is ready. It won't happen. The jump from AA or AAA is too great.

[Willihammer]

 

Buxton didn't look embarrassed to me in his first 37 AB's.

Did we watch the same guy? I saw him flail at off speed stuff in the dirt the same way Vargas has.

 

.501 OPS

[jokin]

 

I've always appreciated the mix of negativity and fatalism with the big league club combined with unrealistic expectations and optimism with prospects. Can't be a good way to be a baseball fan.

 

But to answer you last question - I think Sano would be better right now than other options for that additional bat of DH, some RF, some 3B. I like to roll with the most talented (Buxton, Sano), more patient with others like Vargas.

 

Yeah, and only one way to find out for sure.  I think everyone, even the strawmen, expected Buxton to struggle at the plate at the outset, especially with the quality-level of pitching that he first encountered.  Critics of his promotion fail to acknowledge that he still ended up with a 0.5 dWAR and a net 0.3 WAR due to his overall presence on the field in his first 11 games (over 160 games that would work out to around a 4.0 WAR player)- he's well on his way to being recognized as an elite CFdefender.

 

Sano comes at the relative value equation compared to replacement level vets from the opposite (offensive) direction, he's going to make it based on how far his 80 power tool and 60 hit tool takes him.  And in his defense, he has made big adjustments to the defense and pitching strategies designed to slow him down, and in the process has become a better, more disciplined, all around hitter (LD% and BB/K rates at career highs in 2015, even with the slow start in April), all of this, even as he's only seeing about one-third of his pitches in the strike zone since he started on his tear on April 30.

 

Give Sano close to 100 PAs and see if he can make similar qualitative adjustments with the Twins.

[jokin]

Throw out the small little runs of data in June.  Sano is hitting an incredible string of offensive success over extended periods of time, both full season and especially the last two months:

 

Stats since April 30

 

PAs 209

Slash line .315/.397/..618/(1.015)

ISO .303

wOBA 450

wRC+ 182

BB/K 0.53

Reached base safely in 43 of 48 games.

 

Season long stats of note:

 

LD% 23%  (career high, previous 3 teams LD% ranged from 13.6-14.8%)

BB/K 0.54 (within .02 of his highest mark since Rookie League)

K% 23.8% (career best since Rookie League)

 

Easily eclipsing virtually all of his AA numbers from 2013, with the exception of ISO.

 

The Lookouts have an off-day tomorrow and return home to Chattanooga.  I think there's an outside chance that Sano gets called up to hit in Kansas City on Thursday, especially if the Twins' offensive woes continue in Cincinnati.  Two weeks ago tomorrow, Paul Molitor is quoted as saying that in calling up Sano, "it might be two weeks or not until September.... we're looking for consistency."   As of May -June, Sano is demonstrating that consistency.

[TRex]

So is it a 'strawman' argument to suggest that all who disagree with you are strawmen?

 

I wish I knew! But alas, despite having a heart and courage, I do not... if I only had a brain! 

[jokin]

 

So is it a 'strawman' argument to suggest that all who disagree with you are strawmen?

 

I wish I knew! But alas, despite having a heart and courage, I do not... if I only had a brain! 

 

 

Assuming that you are making a serious point behind your amusing analogy....

 

This isn't about agreement or disagreement. A strawman argument is one taken to inaccurately represent the opposing side's point of view to the extreme or absurd- in search of constructing an easy, but pyrrhic, rhetorical "victory".  That was precisely what was done in this instance.  I'm sure you and I can agree and perhaps disagree on many things- and yet still exchange concrete points of view related to the subject at hand in a friendly fashion.  No need for "Scarecrow" constructs. 

[jokin]

Has the pathway been made clear for Sano to make the move to AAA for his proverbial cup of coffee before hitting the show?

 

Red Wings beat writer, Kevin Oklobzija, posts this bit late yesterday evening following the Santana finale appearance:

 

 

 

Kevin Oklobzija ‏@kevinoDandC  4h4 hours ago
The #ROCRedWings have released third baseman Ryan Wheeler. Batted .233 in 21 games. 1 HR, 7 RBI, .243 OBP, .315 slugging.

 

Let the rumor mill get cranked up again.

[Ncgo4]

Wi sure hope it's the big show and not AAA.

[jokin]

So Vargas has been demoted to AA, 3B Wheeler has been released at AAA, and Sano appears to be out of the lineuup at Chattanooga.  The Twins are facing their biggest series of the year, back in the AL Central and Kansas City.  Who knows what the next move is?  

 

Well, apparently it's nobody in the Twins dugout in Cincy, the beat writers are stumped:

 

 

 

Mike Berardino ‏@MikeBerardino  26m26 minutes ago
No corresponding move yet. Sano???

More
Mike Berardino ‏@MikeBerardino  27m27 minutes ago
Vargas to Chattanooga

 

 

 

LaVelle E. Neal III ‏@LaVelleNeal  30m30 minutes ago
Vargas to Chattanooga

More
LaVelle E. Neal III ‏@LaVelleNeal  41m41 minutes ago
I'm sensing a roster move after the game. Stay tuned.

 

[jokin]

Arcia is currently 3-4 with a HR at Rochester, and the bat has shown signs of life of late, 7-12 in his last 3 games.  Hicks also had 3 hits today.  Gotta think the Twins track record suggests one of them will get the nod, Vargas going to AA instead of AAA seems to make it more likely that Sano will soon be swinging in Rochester.

[jokin]

Arcia is now 4-5 on the day.  In two weeks he's raised his AAA BA from .196 to .255 and his OPS from .481 to .676.

 

Arcia looks like he might be getting the nod here.