Perkins not until the 13th

[nicksaviking]

Pitching 1-2 innings of relief with a tie should be no different than pitching in a save situation.

It shouldn't be, but it somehow is for Perkins. His strikeouts plummet and his walks rise in non-save situations. There may be some intangible variable that can't be calculated. I don't like it, and I think it's ridiculous, but some guys perform better when there is a catch-phrase x-factor involved like "pressure", "adrenaline" or its "crunch-time".

 

I'd like to think professional ball players could perform the same under any circumstance, but I suppose it might not be much different then some of us being more productive at work an hour before a deadline than we are four days before a deadline.

[Willihammer]

It shouldn't be, but it somehow is for Perkins. His strikeouts plummet and his walks rise in non-save situations. There may be some intangible variable that can't be calculated. I don't like it, and I think it's ridiculous, but some guys perform better when there is a catch-phrase x-factor involved like "pressure", "adrenaline" or its "crunch-time".

 

I'd like to think professional ball players could perform the same under any circumstance, but I suppose it might not be much different then some of us being more productive at work an hour before a deadline than we are four days before a deadline.

What are his splits in a tie game?

 

edit: Also do his "non-save" numbers include the innings where he was starting?

[drjim]

I recommend this podcast: http://espn.go.com/espnradio/grantland/player?id=12910939

 

Interview by Jonah Keri with Glen Perkins himself where he talks about relievers having roles. Speaks a little bit to the idea that "pitching is pitching" and any reliever should be able to pitch in any situation. Spoiler alert - probably not that easy.

 

Perkins is as statistically savvy and aware of optimal theories of reliever usage as anyone, and he says it probably isn't realistic. Setting roles allows optimal performance and uncertainly day in day out will eventually become too emotionally draining to perform optimally. Humans vs. anonymous data points and all that.

[drjim]

And for the record, if the reliever usage had played out differently leading up to extras and Molitor had some of his better relievers still available in addition to Perkins, I suspect he would have used Perkins for an inning before the Twins got the lead, probably the 10th.

[Willihammer]

Perkins also has a vested interest in stockpiling saves. I know he is savvy but I remain skeptical that he would pitch any worse in a tie game esp. in extra innings.

[drjim]

 

Perkins also has a vested interest in stockpiling saves. I know he is savvy but I remain skeptical that he would pitch any worse in a tie game esp. in extra innings.

 

Much less of an interest because he is already getting paid. I would agree with you on tie game extra innings, but would push back a little if you think he would pitch the same in 6th, 8th or 9th inning, and that this would last throughout the season. There is a reason teams settle into roles.

[jimmer]

If I remember correctly, Perkins has also said that it's currently unrealistic because relievers (like most players) are set in their ways after having being given defined roles but if these relievers were never given specified roles (because again, their jobs is to pitch and get guys out), it shouldn't matter.  Especially for guy who are just asked to go between 1-2 innings during any given game.  Seriously.  I doubt it makes a difference if you ask Holland to come in to start the 8th and go 1 inning and then tell Davis to go out for the 9th and finish the game.  I don't think it'd matter one bit. Throw Hererra in there too.

 

Said something like it'd be hard at this point to get guys at the major league level to do it, that the change would have to start in the minors. So it's not that the theory is wrong, it's that the implementation would take time.

 

Pretty sure it was him in another interview, but if it wasn't, it was another stat savvy pitcher.

 

Closers get paid more and a lot of teams look at the save stat, so they all want to be the official closer.

[Tibs]

Graham looked great no doubt, but bringing in Duensing prior to Perkins had disaster written all over it IMHO.

After reading the whole thread, I'm struggling a bit with this concept. If we bring in Perkins in a tie game, then that means a different pitcher probably has to come in when we take the lead. This is assuming Perkins pitched before the 12th or couldn't go more than one inning. What's the difference between pitching Duensing before Perkins and pitching Perkins before Duensing? Both cases have Duensing pitching, but in the second case you have already used your best reliever. How does this have any less disaster written all over it?

[twinsnorth49]

A one run lead and a tie game on the road are two different things. With pitching Duensing before Perk there was a higher chance they would have never got to Pt.2.

[Willihammer]

 

After reading the whole thread, I'm struggling a bit with this concept. If we bring in Perkins in a tie game, then that means a different pitcher probably has to come in when we take the lead. This is assuming Perkins pitched before the 12th or couldn't go more than one inning. What's the difference between pitching Duensing before Perkins and pitching Perkins before Duensing? Both cases have Duensing pitching, but in the second case you have already used your best reliever. How does this have any less disaster written all over it?

In a tie, there is no room for error. With a lead, there is room for error.

[Tibs]

In a tie, there is no room for error. With a lead, there is room for error.

That makes sense. Maybe we'll see Molitor use a different strategy down the road.

[drjim]

 

That makes sense. Maybe we'll see Molitor use a different strategy down the road.

 

Since Molitor has already used Perkins in a non-traditional role (tie game 8th inning on the road) chances are high that he would probably be open to different strategies down the road.

 

In different circumstances, such as having more than two relievers (plus Perkins) left through 8 innings, he quite likely would have used this type of strategy in this game as well.

 

I don't think we'll ever see Perkins before the 8th inning though, and rightfully so.

[Brock Beauchamp]

A one run lead and a tie game on the road are two different things. With pitching Duensing before Perk there was a higher chance they would have never got to Pt.2.

And one should never assume that if the Twins take the lead, it will only be one run.

[twinsnorth49]

And one should never assume that if the Twins take the lead, it will only be one run.

 

That too.

[Linus]

And you guys figure Molitor doesn't understand these different factors?

[twinsnorth49]

 

And you guys figure Molitor doesn't understand these different factors?

No, I think he likely does, but I'm still a bit confused why he waited to use his best reliever for an inning that might have never come.

[Blackjack]

I forget, did the Twins win or lose this game??

[twinsnorth49]

 

I forget, did the Twins win or lose this game??

Yes