Kohl Stewart - 2015

[Dance with Disco Dan]

KOHL STEWART

 

http://www.milb.com/images/640464/t509/180x270/640464.jpg

 

Position: Right-Handed Pitcher.

 

Height/ Weight: 6’3’’ 205 lbs.

 

Age: 20 years old all season long (10/07/94 d.o.b.).

 

Drafted: By the Twins in the 1st Round of 2013 (4th overall).

 

Signing Bonus: $4,544,000 (This amount was the MLB-assigned slot-value for the 4th overall selection).

                                                                                                                                               

2015 Twins Prospect Rankings: Kohl is generally considered a top-5 Twins prospect and a top-100 overall prospect in baseball:

 

MLB.com (No. 6/No. 37 overall);

ESPN (No. 5/ No. 53 overall);

Fangraphs (No. 5/No. 73 overall);

Baseball America (No.4/No.101-115 overall);

Baseball Prospectus (No. 3/No. 28 overall).

 

Expert Sentiment:  As the rankings suggest, the experts find a lot to like about Kohl’s abilities. The following are a select quotes from a few pre-season prospect rankings:

 

MLB.com:

 

Scouting grades: Fastball: 65 | Curveball: 50 | Slider: 60 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 55 | Overall: 55

 

Stewart has the makings of a future frontline starter. He'll throw his fastball up to 96 mph with good movement. His slider is his best secondary pitch, a power breaking ball thrown in the 84-86 mph range that can be an effective out pitch. Stewart also throws a curve and a changeup, both of which show signs of being Major League average. Stewart has a clean delivery he repeats well, is always around the strike zone, and brings a football-like competitiveness to the mound.

 

Keith Law, ESPN.com:

 

He'll show four pitches, any or all of which could end up as plus, with a fastball already up to 97 mph and a slider that is probably closest to being a true swing-and-miss offering. He's a great athlete, as you'd expect, and the Twins have already started to refine his delivery to the point he can at least throw more strikes, although it is control over command. . . . Stewart has the potential to front a rotation given a few more years of development; he might have to learn to pitch at 92-94 first so he can develop some command, and he needs to work in particular on his changeup before Double-A hitters force him to do so.       

 

Kiley McDaniel, Fangraphs.com:

 

Fastball: 50/60, Curveball: 50/60, Slider: 45/50+, Changeup: 50/55, Command: 40/50

 

He worked on his fastball command this season and it’s expected to improve, as he’s a multi-sport kid with limited innings/experience . . . He sits 91-94 and hits 95 mph often with a fluid, simple delivery and a short stride, though some scouts think he’ll settle with a 55 fastball at maturity (which is 91-93 mph). . . . The curveball and changeup both made strides this year after Stewart threw a slider as his primary out-pitch in high school.  On the pessimistic side, some scouts don’t give Stewart a future 60 pitch . . . The upside here is a #2/3 starter, but it’s still early to assume that will be what happens.

                                   

2014 Minor League Season and Stats:  Kohl pitched last season for the Cedar Rapids Kernels and was one of the youngest players in the Midwest League (2.9 years younger than league-average). Despite his youth, Stewart more than held his own delivering a very solid, if not dominant, season.  Unfortunately, his season was cut short by shoulder soreness which convinced the Twins to shut him down and begin rest and rehab.  Other than the injury, the biggest concern raised by Kohl’s performance was his relative lack of strikeouts.  The expectations were that a pitcher with his raw stuff would overmatch low-A batters and rack up a high strikeout rate.  There was some anecdotal speculation that the Twins—in the interest of developing his command and other pitches—did not allow Kohl to use his plus slider as much as he would’ve otherwise.  If true, this may help explain why he recorded fewer strikeouts than expected.

 

IP:       87

W-L:    3-5

ERA:   2.59

FIP:     3.73

WHIP: 1.14

AVG: .233

K/9:     6.41

W/9:    2.48

           GO/AO: 1.74

 

2015 Assignment: Kohl will begin 2015 as part of the Fort Myers Miracle’s starting rotation.

 

Tidbits: Native of Tomball, Texas . . . a top QB recruit coming out of high school committed to play for Texas A&M before signing his baseball contract . . . a Type-1 diabetic . . . an avid hunter and fisherman . . . one of seven children . . . sister Kelly plays volleyball for Auburn

                                               

Twitter: @kohlstewart1 

[Dance with Disco Dan]

Start No. 1 (04/09/15)

 

            Kohl was tapped to be the Miracle’s opening day starter as they faced the Charlotte Stone Crabs, a Tampa Bay Rays affiliate.   The Stone Crabs’ lineup featured four players ranked among the Rays’ top prospects: Willy Adames (No. 3 MLB.com & ESPN.com); Andrew Velazquez (No. 10 minorleagueball.com, No. 17 MLB.com); Jake Bauers (No. 13 minorleagueball.com, No. 24 MLB.com); and Kean Wong (No. 30 MLB.com and Kolton’s younger brother).   The player of the game, however, was Stone Crab pitcher Blake Snell (No. 12 MLB.com) who dominated the Miracle batters after relieving rehabbing major-leaguer Drew Smyly.   Although Kohl delivered a Quality Start and kept his team in the game, he took the loss as the Miracle fell 2-0.

 

            Kohl faced 25 batters over 6 innings surrendering 2 runs on 5 hits (including 2 2Bs) and 4 walks.   One batter reached on an error but the defense supported Kohl by cutting down three Stone Crabs on the base-paths including two caught-stealing (well done Mitch Garver!).   Kohl struck out five and did a nice job keeping the ball out of air posting a 4.50 GO/AO ratio.   Clearly, Kohl was uncharacteristically wild matching a career-high in walks but he otherwise pitched well.  All-in-all, it was a promising start to the season and we’ll look for him to improve his walk-rate and pitch deeper into games as the season progresses (he has not yet pitched more than six innings in his career):

 

IP     6.0

H      5

R      2

ER    2

BB    4

SO    5

HR    0

ERA  3.00

 

Check these webpages for more granular stats for Kohl:

 

MiLB.com:

http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=t509&player_id=640464#/gamelogs/R/pitching/2015/MINORS

 

Baseball Reference:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=stewar000koh

 

Fangraphs:

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa737436&position=P

[Dance with Disco Dan]

Start No. 2 (04/15/15)

 

            Kohl’s second start of the season came against the Tampa Yankees, a New York Yankees affiliate (according to Captain Obvious).   The Yankees’ lineup featured prospects 3B Miguel Andujar ((No. 9 minorleagueball.com, No. 11 MLB.com) and SS Tyler Wade (No. 20 MLB.com) but it was starting pitcher Rookie Davis (No. 23 MLB.com) that caused the Kernels the most difficulty.   Davis and the Yankees’ bullpen kept the Kernels’ bats mostly silent allowing the Yankees to win 3-1 in 11 innings.

 

            Kohl pitched his second straight Quality Start and the game was a career-milestone of sorts because he went 8 full innings.   Prior to this game he had never pitched into the 7^th inning as a professional so this effort represents a big step forward.   Kohl not only pitched deep into the game, he also limited the Yankees to only one run.   When he was relieved to start the 9^th inning the score was tied 1-1.   Since the name of the pitching game is run prevention, this start will be filed under “Big Success.”   That’s not to say it was a completely dominant effort.

 

            Over the 8 innings, Kohl faced 30 batters and allowed 8 hits (including one 2B) and 2 walks.   He was able to induce 2 ground-ball double plays and two other Yankees were cut down on the base-paths (Stewart and Garver are controlling the running game so far this season).   Once again, Kohl did a very good job inducing ground-ball outs although the GO/AO metric is slightly misleading for this game because more of the total balls-in-play were categorized as line-drives than is typical for Kohl.   Also, despite his good walk total, Kohl was uncharacteristically “wild” in that he hit a batter and was charged with 3 wild pitches.   And finally, the question of Kohl’s strikeout rate continues to loom as he only recorded 3 in this outing.

 

Box Score:

 

        Player            IP        H         R         ER       BB       SO       HR         ERA

Kohl Stewart   8.0       8          1          1          2          3          0          1.93

 

Season Stats:

 

IP:    14.0

ERA:    1.93

FIP:    3.43

WHIP:    1.36

AVG:    .271

GO/AO:    3.50

K/9:    5.1

W/9:    3.9

 

Check these webpages for more granular stats for Kohl:

 

MiLB.com:

http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=t509&player_id=640464#/career/R/pitching/2015/ALL

 

Baseball Reference:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=stewar000koh

 

Fangraphs:

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa737436&position=P

[nytwinsfan]

Right now he sounds somewhat like Gibson in terms of his K/BB and batted ball profile. That's not a bad place to start from, and if he can end up being a Gibson with a bit more strikeouts, that would be a solid 2 or 3 starter.

[markos]

I am excited to see that he pitched 8 innings. It would be great if he could keep that up throughout the season. If strikeout rate is Stewart's #1 question mark going into this year, his endurance/durability was #2. It is nice to see him answering that question right out of the gate.

[jokin]

 

I am excited to see that he pitched 8 innings. It would be great if he could keep that up throughout the season. If strikeout rate is Stewart's #1 question mark going into this year, his endurance/durability was #2. It is nice to see him answering that question right out of the gate.

 

Yeah, I think Stewart is putting the diabetes issue to rest.   I was actually stunned that they felt confident enough in him to battle that deep into the game.  He's even farther along in the Twins's mind than I thought he was- which portends well for a mid-season promotion to AA.

[Dance with Disco Dan]

For anyone interested, the Miracle posted a feature article about Kohl on their website. The first half of the article covers familiar ground about Kohl's football background and his diabetes. The second half of the article, however, has quotes from both Kohl and catcher Alex Swim regarding the pitches he throws. He is now using five pitches including the curveball and two-seam fastball he added last season with the two-seamer apparently developing quite quickly:

 

http://www.milb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20150418&content_id=119047132&fext=.jsp&vkey=news_t509&sid=t509

[Dance with Disco Dan]

Start No. 3 (04/21/15)

 

Kohl took the mound for his third start against the Palm Beach Cardinals who countered with one of their own top prospects RHP Alex Reyes (No. 3/No. 77 overall ESPN.com; No. 3/No. 100 overall MLB.com).   Unfortunately, the day went to Reyes and the Cardinals’ bullpen as the Miracle fell 4-0.   The Miracle have scored a total of 1 run in Kohl’s three starts and, not surprisingly, Kohl’s record now stands at 0-2.

 

When the assignments were made at the beginning of the season, it was hard not to look at the Miracle lineup and wonder where the runs would come from.   That question is becoming increasing valid with roughly 10 percent of the games played.   Despite fielding the second oldest lineup in the league—a lineup significantly older than all but one other lineup—the Miracle are at or near the bottom of most hitting statistics including dead-last with a .586 OPS.   Admittedly, too few games have been played to draw any conclusions.  Nevertheless, based on what we know (and/or believe) about the individual potential and past performance of the Miracle hitters there is ample reason to be concerned that the strong pitching staff will receive very little support this season.

 

Despite pitching into the 7^th inning, this was Kohl’s first poor outing (judged by his standards).   Kohl faced 27 batters over 6.1 innings and surrendered 4 earned runs (matching a career high) on 6 hits (including 1 2B) and 2 walks.   Despite the result, however, he controlled the Cardinals’ offense for most of the game.   Unfortunately, Kohl started out a bit wild issuing both walks in the 1^st inning which allowed a subsequent ground-ball single to plate a run.  In the 3^rd inning, a lead-off double came around on back-to-back ground outs.   In the 7^th inning, the Cardinals strung together 3 straight singles to plate a third run and chase Kohl.   Reliever Brian Gilbert gave up another single scoring the fourth run charged to Kohl.

 

            Among the positives from this start, Kohl cleaned up the wildness he displayed last game hitting no batters and throwing no wild pitches.   He also pitched into the 7^th inning for the second straight game.   Truth be told, the Cardinals did well to maximize their run creation given what they were able to hit off Kohl.   On the negative side, he struck out only 2 batters leaving front-and-center the question of whether he can generate the strike-out rate necessary to be the top-line starter that we all hope he’ll become.           

 

Box Score:

 

Player             IP        H         R         ER       BB       SO       HR      ERA

Kohl Stewart   6.1       6          4          4          2          2          0          3.10

 

Season Stats:

 

IP:  20.1

ERA:  3.10

FIP:  3.60

WHIP:  1.33

AVG:  .260

GO/AO:  2.67

K/9:  4.4

W/9:  3.5

 

Check these webpages for more granular stats and Kohl game logs:

 

MiLB.com:

http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=t509&player_id=640464#/career/R/pitching/2015/ALL

 

Baseball Reference:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=stewar000koh

 

Fangraphs:

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa737436&position=P

[tobi0040]

I just wanted to call out, you are doing a great job covering Kohl. I really appreciate it.

 

If anyone watches one of his starts, it would be interesting to know how many sliders he is throwing. 

[Dance with Disco Dan]

On April 23rd, Kohl was placed on the 7-day Disabled List with reported right elbow inflammation.

 

This is not welcome news and we'll hope that it is a minor discomfort that works itself out quickly.

[Dance with Disco Dan]

Yesterday, Mike Berardino tweeted out a few quotes from Twins farm director Brad Steil about Kohl's condition.

 

According to Steil, Kohl is "doing better" and a recent MRI "looked good."  The current plan is to "ramp him back up."

 

This is good news and hopefully he can return to the rotation and have a productive season.

[Dance with Disco Dan]

Phil Miller, in today's Star Tribune, says that the recent MRI "found no structural damage" and that Kohl's workload will be "slowly" ramped up in Cedar Rapids.  So it looks like Kohl is heading back to low A until he is back to full health.

[Steven Buhr]

 

Phil Miller, in today's Star Tribune, says that the recent MRI "found no structural damage" and that Kohl's workload will be "slowly" ramped up in Cedar Rapids.  So it looks like Kohl is heading back to low A until he is back to full health.

Have to think that reference to CR is a typo. I can't see any reason they would ship him up here rather than just letting him ramp back up in FtM.

[tobi0040]

 

Have to think that reference to CR is a typo. I can't see any reason they would ship him up here rather than just letting him ramp back up in FtM.

 

I also thought that was odd.  Not like a big league player going to low A for a start.

[Dance with Disco Dan]

Very good news!

 

Mike Berardino is reporting that Kohl is returning to the Miracle's active roster and will start the game Monday night.

 

It is encouraging that he is re-entering the rotation rather than starting out in the bullpen. Let's all hope that the elbow issue is behind him and he has a productive season.

[Dance with Disco Dan]

Start No. 4 (05/12/15)

 

Kohl returned to the mound for the first time in 20 days after spending time on the disabled list dealing with elbow inflammation.   He was inserted directly into the starting rotation to face the Dunedin Jays.   Kohl’s appearance was a little bit wild (2 BBs and a HBP), a little bit encouraging (he had the Jays beating ground-balls at his fielders), and worryingly short (he was replaced in the 3^rd inning after facing  only 13 batters).   He exited the game trailing 2-1 in a Miracle 5-2 loss.

 

Kohl surrendered only two singles in this game but his wildness, a two-run throwing error by Niko Goodrum, and Alex Muren’s own wildness in relief resulted in 4 runs (1 earned) being charged to Kohl.   The looming question from this outing is why Kohl was removed from the game?   The game situation did not seem to call for it—he had just induced a potential inning-ending groundball that Goodrum threw into right field trying to turn a double play.   Had Goodrum turned two, Kohl was out of the inning leading 1-0.   Had Goodrum only gotten the lead runner, the score was tied with runners on the corners.   This is not a situation that called for a reliever unless: (i) Kohl was on a strict pitch limit; (ii) Kohl was experiencing some discomfort; or (iii) Kohl was feeling fine but his velocity was down significantly.

 

Obviously, I am hopeful that he was removed for scenario (i) or some other benign reason that I am not thinking of.   I looked at the reports for the game and there is no mention about the reason for Kohl’s short stint or his health.   I suppose we’ll know something more when his next start comes around.   If he is healthy and simply building back up, we can return to fretting about Kohl’s strikeout rate—he did not strike out any of the 13 batters he faced.

 

 

Box Score:

 

Player             IP        H         R         ER       BB       SO       HR      ERA

Kohl Stewart   2.1       2          4          1          2          0          0          3.18

 

Season Stats:

 

IP:  22.2

ERA:  3.18

FIP:  3.93

WHIP:  1.37

AVG:  .253

GO/AO:  3.00

K/9:  3.97

W/9:  3.97

 

Check these webpages for more granular stats and Kohl game logs:

 

MiLB.com:

http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=t509&player_id=640464#/career/R/pitching/2015/ALL

 

Baseball Reference:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=stewar000koh

 

Fangraphs:

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa737436&position=P

[Dance with Disco Dan]

Start No. 5 (05/17/15)

 

Kohl took the mound for his scheduled start against the Jupiter Hammerheads—a Miami Marlins affiliate—answering any injury-related concerns stemming from his early hook last start.   We can almost surely chalk that removal up to a pitch limit for his first start back from the disabled list.   This game, Kohl pitched 5 full innings and exited with the score tied 2-2 in a 5-3 Miracle win.

 

The Hammerheads’ lineup featured four of the Marlins’ top prospects:  2B Avery Romero (MLB.com no. 4, ESPN.com no. 5);  3B Brian Anderson (MLB.com no. 9);  LF Austin Dean (MLB.com no. 10); and SS J.T. Riddle (MLB.com no. 19).   Riddle and Dean connected for first-inning doubles which gave the Hammerheads a 1-0 lead.   They didn’t score again off Kohl until the 5^th inning.   A leadoff bunt single put a runner on third-base after a two-base throwing error by Niko Goodrum.   Riddle (4 for 5 this game) singled home the runner closing the scoring book on Kohl.

 

Over the 5 innings, Kohl surrendered 6 hits (including 2 2Bs) and two walks, and was charged with 2 runs (only one earned).   Kohl continued to induce a lot of groundballs and he also struck out 4 batters.    All in all, this was a productive and encouraging start.

 

Seeking some perspective on Kohl’s early-season success at inducing groundballs, I calculated his groundball rate and line drive rate using the raw data for each provided by Baseball-Reference.com.    After five appearances:  (i) 89 batted balls have been put in play, (ii) 53 of those were ground balls; and (iii) and 16 were line drives.   This gives Kohl a GB% of 59.6% and a LD% of 17.8%. 

 

If Kohl had achieved this groundball rate in MLB, he’d currently be ranked fourth behind Tyson Ross, Dallas Keuchel and Felix Hernandez (Mike Pelfrey is currently 9^th at 56.9%; Kyle Gibson has a 53.1% rate).   His line drive rate would place him 17^th overall.   Obviously, he’s been working against High A hitters not MLB hitters and I don’t intend to imply that these rates will continue as he rises in competition level.   I just wanted to bring out the point that, although his strikeout rate is disappointing so far, there are other aspects of his game that are shining.

 

NOTE: We know groundballs=good thing.   This is because only 23% result in base hits and a very small percentage of those hits go for extra bases.   We also know that line drives=bad thing.   This is because almost 70% of them result in base hits, many for extra bases (I was surprised the number was so high).

 

Box Score:

 

Player              IP        H         R         ER       BB       SO       HR      ERA

Kohl Stewart   5.0       6          2          1          1          4          0          2.93

 

Season Stats:

 

IP:   27.2

ERA:   2.93

FIP:   3.61

WHIP:  1.37

AVG:   .265

GO/AO:   2.88

K/9:   4.55

W/9:   3.58

 

Check these webpages for more granular stats and Kohl game logs:

 

MiLB.com:

http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=t509&player_id=640464#/career/R/pitching/2015/ALL

 

Baseball Reference:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=stewar000koh

 

Fangraphs:

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa737436&position=P

[Dance with Disco Dan]

Start No. 6 (05/23/15)

 

In his third appearance back from the disabled list, Kohl pitched his best game of the season and picked up his first win (I don’t care about the win stat but maybe some of the voters that handed Johan’s 2005 Cy Young to Bartolo Colon will read this post and appreciate the data point).   Kohl pitched seven strong innings against the Brevard County Manatees—a Milwaukee Brewers affiliate—in a 3-1 Miracle victory.

 

Kohl faced off against RHP Jorge Ortega, an unranked prospect having a very solid season as a 21 year old in High A (2.21 ERA; .91 WHIP).   Ortega is a bit of a mystery man as a 2011 signing out of Venezuela who spent his first four years in various levels of Rookie ball.   Then this year, he was jumped up to High A and has been very effective.  I expect he'll be rising up the Brewers' prospect list.   Ortega pitched well in this game but his defense let him down by committing three errors that contributed to all three Miracle runs.

 

The Manatees’ lineup featured three ranked prospects: RF Clint Coulter (MLB.com no. 4, ESPN.com no. 4); LF Victor Roache (MLB.com no. 14); and CF Omar Garcia (MLB.com no. 28).   It’s interesting to note that Coulter is now a full-time outfielder.  Kernels fans may remember that Coulter led the MWL with 22 homers last year (and was 4^th with a .930 OPS) as 20 year old splitting time between catcher and DH.   His bat at catcher portended an All-Star but will still play well in the outfield assuming he continues on his development trajectory.

 

Over his seven innings, Kohl faced 24 batters and surrendered just 1 run on 4 hits (including 1 2B) and issued zero walks.   Coulter, Roache and Garcia were a combined 0-9 against Kohl.   Except for the second inning when the Manatees strung together a double and a broken-bat single, he was in complete control.   His line-drive rate on balls in play was 10% which is exceptional.  If one was looking to pick nits, Kohl “only” struck out 4 batters and his ground-ball/fly-ball ratio (1.00) was merely very good instead of his typical outstanding.   This was a VERY good performance and it’s nice to see him come back strong from his DL stint.

 

Box Score:

 

Player              IP        H         R         ER       BB       SO       HR      ERA

Kohl Stewart   7.0       4          1          1          0          4          0          2.60

 

Season Stats:

 

IP:   34.2

ERA:   2.60

FIP:   3.28

WHIP:   1.21

AVG:   .246

GO/AO:   2.39

K/9:   4.67

W/9:   2.86

 

Check these webpages for more granular stats and Kohl game logs:

 

MiLB.com:

http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=t509&player_id=640464#/career/R/pitching/2015/ALL

 

Baseball Reference:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=stewar000koh

 

Fangraphs:

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa737436&position=P

[nicksaviking]

Glad he's healthy, and thanks for the updates.

 

I don't know that there's much room for debate any longer though, he's not going to be able to miss many bars and because of this he's not going to be the ace we've been hoping for.

 

Decent velocity that for whatever reasons doesn't miss bats and a ground ball pitcher, he looks like Kyle Gibson, though Gibson struck out more batters in the minors.

[Dance with Disco Dan]

Start No. 7 (05/29/15)

           

This write-up is a bit dated as Kohl made his seventh start last Friday.   In this game, Kohl was matched up against the Clearwater Threshers—a Phillies affiliate—featuring their uber-prospect SS J.P. Crawford (No. 4 overall ESPN.com) who has since been promoted to AA after slashing .392/.489/.443 in the FSL.   The Threshers lineup also included prospects C Andrew Knapp (No. 13 MLB.com), RF Dylan Cozens (No. 19 MLB.com) and CF Aaron Brown (No. 22 MLB.com).   LHP Brandon Liebrandt (No. 27 MLB.com) started for the Threshers.   And yes, he is the son of Charlie “We Will See You Tomorrow Night” Liebrandt.

 

Unfortunately, this game was Kohl’s first true clunker of the season and the worst outing of his career so far.   He faced 22 batters over only 4 innings and surrendered a career-high 10 hits (including 1 2B and 1 3B) and a career-high 5 earned runs.   The Miracle was trailing 6-0 when Kohl was replaced at the start of the 5^th inning and went on to lose the game 7-6.   Although he did not walk any batters he only managed to strike out one.

 

If one is looking for a silver lining, Kohl continued to generate a high ground-ball rate (69% GB%) and a low line-drive percentage (8.6% LD%).   An unusually high number of the 16 groundballs hit by the Threshers’ went for hits—six.    I didn’t see or listen to the game but it’s possible, looking at those figures, that this was just an unlucky game where the balls put in play had eyes.   The game recap on MiLB.com indicates that one of the hits in the 4-run 1^st inning was a tailor-made double-play ball to Engelb Vielma until it hit something and took a weird hop over his shoulder.   With a little luck, the story of this game may have been entirely different. 

 

Box Score:

 

Player              IP        H         R         ER       BB       SO       HR      ERA

Kohl Stewart   4.0       10        6          5          0          1          0          3.49

 

Season Stats:

 

IP:  38.2

ERA:  3.49

FIP:  3.23

WHIP:  1.34

AVG:   .275

GO/AO:   2.42

K/9:  4.42

W/9:  2.56

                       

 

Check these webpages for more granular stats for Kohl:

 

MiLB.com:

http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=t509&player_id=640464#/gamelogs/R/pitching/2015/MINORS

 

Baseball Reference:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=stewar000koh

 

Fangraphs:

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa737436&position=P

[Pius Jefferson]

It's hard to be positive about a contact pitcher picked 4th overall. 

 

[Dance with Disco Dan]

Start No. 8 (06/04/15)

 

In his eighth start, Kohl faced the FSL’s top hitting team and it did not go well.   The Bradenton Marauders’ line-up featured six of the Pirates’ top-20 prospects including CF Austin Meadows—selected 5 spots after Kohl—who has climbed to No. 13 overall on ESPN.com.   For the second straight game, Kohl was not very effective and he was chased before recording an out in the 6^th inning trailing 5-1 in a 7-3 Miracle loss.

 

Over five innings, Kohl faced 26 batters and surrendered 10 hits (including 2 2B) and 2 walks and gave up 5 runs (4 earned runs).   His ground-ball percentage remained good but his line-drive percentage was over 20% for the second time this season.   Kohl also uncorked two wild pitches moving runners into scoring position (who both scored) and made two errors (one fielding and one throwing).   In short, this game was one to forget. 

 

Kohl has seen his ERA rise 1.32 runs over the last two starts—from 2.60 to 3.92.   When his ERA was at 2.60, I felt pretty good about it but I was unsure what that number actually represented.   In the context of what we understand about MLB stats, a 2.60 ERA is excellent.   But, we all know that the FSL is a pitchers league so I gathered a few FSL league-average pitching stats to give context to Kohl’s stats (and to the stats of the other Miracle pitchers).   Here they are through June 4, 2015:

 

FSL League-Average:

 

ERA:   3.23

WHIP:   1.27

AVG:   .249

K/9:   7.30

W/9:   3.00

 

Box Score:

 

Player              IP        H         R         ER       BB       SO       HR      ERA

Kohl Stewart   5.0       10        5          4          2          3          0          3.92

 

Season Stats:

 

IP:   43.2

ERA:   3.92

FIP:   3.24

WHIP:   1.47

AVG:   .295

GO/AO:   2.33

K/9:   4.53

W/9:   2.68

 

Check these webpages for more granular stats and Kohl game logs:

 

MiLB.com:

http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=t509&player_id=640464#/career/R/pitching/2015/ALL

 

Baseball Reference:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=stewar000koh

 

Fangraphs:

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa737436&position=P

 

[laloesch]

 

Start No. 8 (06/04/15)

 

In his eighth start, Kohl faced the FSL’s top hitting team and it did not go well.   The Bradenton Marauders’ line-up featured six of the Pirates’ top-20 prospects including CF Austin Meadows—selected 5 spots after Kohl—who has climbed to No. 13 overall on ESPN.com.   For the second straight game, Kohl was not very effective and he was chased before recording an out in the 6^th inning trailing 5-1 in a 7-3 Miracle loss.

 

Over five innings, Kohl faced 26 batters and surrendered 10 hits (including 2 2B) and 2 walks and gave up 5 runs (4 earned runs).   His ground-ball percentage remained good but his line-drive percentage was over 20% for the second time this season.   Kohl also uncorked two wild pitches moving runners into scoring position (who both scored) and made two errors (one fielding and one throwing).   In short, this game was one to forget. 

 

Kohl has seen his ERA rise 1.32 runs over the last two starts—from 2.60 to 3.92.   When his ERA was at 2.60, I felt pretty good about it but I was unsure what that number actually represented.   In the context of what we understand about MLB stats, a 2.60 ERA is excellent.   But, we all know that the FSL is a pitchers league so I gathered a few FSL league-average pitching stats to give context to Kohl’s stats (and to the stats of the other Miracle pitchers).   Here they are through June 4, 2015:

 

FSL League-Average:

 

ERA:   3.23

WHIP:   1.27

AVG:   .249

K/9:   7.30

W/9:   3.00

 

Box Score:

 

Player              IP        H         R         ER       BB       SO       HR      ERA

Kohl Stewart   5.0       10        5          4          2          3          0          3.92

 

Season Stats:

 

IP:   43.2

ERA:   3.92

FIP:   3.24

WHIP:   1.47

AVG:   .295

GO/AO:   2.33

K/9:   4.53

W/9:   2.68

 

Check these webpages for more granular stats and Kohl game logs:

 

MiLB.com:

http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=t509&player_id=640464#/career/R/pitching/2015/ALL

 

Baseball Reference:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=stewar000koh

 

Fangraphs:

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa737436&position=P

 

 

Hmmm....sounds like more of a mid to back end rotation starter.

[drjim]

 

Hmmm....sounds like more of a mid to back end rotation starter.

 

Indeed. The things I hold on to now are that the minor injuries have hampered his injury a little bit and also the common position that he needed to rework much of what he does mechanically before he would become a great pitcher. Perhaps this is still part of that process and a breakout will soon follow, but not looking good at the moment. He is still young.

 

Also interesting is that the first round still looks pretty weak that year aside from Bryant. Will be interesting to look back again to see if that changes. Obviously very early.

[nicksaviking]

 

 

The Bradenton Marauders’ line-up featured six of the Pirates’ top-20 prospects including CF Austin Meadows—selected 5 spots after Kohl—who has climbed to No. 13 overall on ESPN.com.   

 

Before it was being rumored that the Twins were locked into Stewart if Appel, Gray and Bryant didn't fall, Meadows was one of the big names expected to be considered by the Twins.  I wonder if recently drafting Buxton and the disgusting state of the starting pitching depth had anything to do with them choosing Stewart.

 

For the record, I preferred Stewart if none of the big three fell.  He was projected to be a high velocity, strikeout pitcher with a killer slider.  If the front office misses on this one, they're going to have lots of company.  Stewart was probably one of the few recent draft picks that was supported by most pundits and Twins fans.

 

http://twinsdaily.com/topic/5749-potential-2013-twins-draft-pick-kohl-stewart/

 

Thumbs up to kab21 who was a bit more hesitant than the rest of us.  Thumbs Down to Jim Callis who though Stewart had a chance to fast track to the MLB by 2015.

[ashbury]

I think he's hurt, they should shut him down, and get him looked at.

[Dman]

 

Before it was being rumored that the Twins were locked into Stewart if Appel, Gray and Bryant didn't fall, Meadows was one of the big names expected to be considered by the Twins.  I wonder if recently drafting Buxton and the disgusting state of the starting pitching depth had anything to do with them choosing Stewart.

 

For the record, I preferred Stewart if none of the big three fell.  He was projected to be a high velocity, strikeout pitcher with a killer slider.  If the front office misses on this one, they're going to have lots of company.  Stewart was probably one of the few recent draft picks that was supported by most pundits and Twins fans.

 

http://twinsdaily.com/topic/5749-potential-2013-twins-draft-pick-kohl-stewart/

 

Thumbs up to kab21 who was a bit more hesitant than the rest of us.  Thumbs Down to Jim Callis who though Stewart had a chance to fast track to the MLB by 2015.

 

I kind of wanted them to pick Frazier that year but was quite happy with Stewart as I felt we needed more higher level pitching in our system.  It felt like a solid pick at the time.  

 

He is still young and has plenty of time to turn things around.  He has the velocity just needs to gain experience and he will get better.  Tough years often lead to better years ahead.  Patience is not one my strengths but baseball is teaching me that you need a lot of it.

[Pius Jefferson]

Are thee any examples of a pitcher having a low K rate his first three seasons and being able to turn into at least an above average strikeout pitcher?

[Dance with Disco Dan]

Start No. 9 (06/11/15)

 

Kohl made his ninth start against the Lakeland Flying Tigers.   This start was pushed back a day because of bad weather earlier in the week and shorted to a 7-inning game to accommodate a double header.   Kohl picked up his second win of the season in a 7-3 victory as the Miracle offense had its best game in four weeks.   While this game represented an improvement over his last two starts, it was not an unqualified success despite the result.

 

 Over six innings, Kohl faced 25 batters and surrendered 7 hits (including 1 2B) and 3 walks.   He was charged with 3 runs but only one of those runs was earned as Alex Swim turned one fly ball into 2 errors (one fielding, one throwing) which allowed 2 runners to score.   Kohl was able to limit the damage from allowing 10 base runners by inducing 3 groundball double plays.   Once again, he struggled to strike batters out although his lone strikeout came against the last batter he faced in the 6^th inning which squelched a Lakeland rally.

 

Although Kohl allowed too many walks and posted too few strikeouts, the biggest concern arising in this game was his GB% vs. FB%.    His GB% was below 50% for only the second time this season but his rate was a career-worst 34.8%.   For perspective, Kohl’s GB% entering the game was 60.8% which at the MLB level is elite.   Thus far in his career, Kohl has established himself as an extreme groundball pitcher that also limits hard contact—his LD% is 14.6% this season which is also elite at the MLB level.   Unfortunately, the benefit of those qualities is muted because Kohl does not strike out many batters meaning more balls are put in play against him than the average pitcher.   Unless and until he develops a strikeout repertoire, he will need to maintain elite GB% and LD% rates to have much success.   Hopefully, the rash of fly balls/line drives in this game was an aberration.

 

Box Score:

 

Player              IP        H         R         ER       BB       SO       HR      ERA

Kohl Stewart  6.0        7          3          1          3          1          0          3.62

 

Season Stats:

 

IP:   49.2

ERA:   3.62

FIP:   3.37

WHIP:   1.49

AVG:   .297

GO/AO:   2.08

K/9:   4.17

W/9:   2.90

 

Check these webpages for more granular stats and Kohl game logs:

 

MiLB.com:

http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=t509&player_id=640464#/career/R/pitching/2015/ALL

 

Baseball Reference:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=stewar000koh

 

Fangraphs:

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa737436&position=P

 

 

[Dance with Disco Dan]

Start No. 10 (06/17/15)

 

Kohl’s tenth start of the season was short and disappointing as he was replaced to start the 5^th inning with the score tied 4-4 in a 9-5 Miracle victory over the Daytona Tortugas—a Reds affiliate.   The Tortugas lineup featured five of the Red’s top 30 prospects including recent 1^st-round draft choices Alex Blandino (MLB.com no. 6) and Phil Ervin (MLB.com no. 8). 

 

On Twins Daily this week, there was a lot of debate about Kohl’s status as a prospect with many already holding the opinion that he will not develop into a top pitcher at the MLB level.   Kohl started this game like he was intent on proving his detractors wrong.   He retired 9 of the first 10 batters on 7 ground balls and 2 strikeouts. Through the first 3 innings the only Tortuga baserunner reached on a walk.   Then . . . the wheels came off in the fourth inning.   Four hits, a walk and a wild pitch later and Kohl’s night was over.

 

Over four innings, Kohl faced 18 batters and surrendered 4 hits (including 1 2B) and 2 walks and was charged with 4 earned runs.   He struck out two of the first four batters but did not strike out any others.   Despite the rough 4^th inning, it’s a little surprising he was replaced to start the 5^th inning.   The Miracle tied the game in the bottom of the 4^th and it does not seem likely that Kohl’s pitch limit (whatever it is) was reached against 18 batters.   Hopefully, his early removal was not health related.

 

Box Score:

 

Player              IP        H         R         ER       BB       SO       HR      ERA

Kohl Stewart   4.0       4          4          4          2          2          0          4.02

 

Season Stats:

 

IP:   53.2

ERA:   4.02

FIP:   3.41

WHIP:   1.49

AVG:   .294

GO/AO:   2.18

K/9:   4.19

W/9:   3.02

 

Check these webpages for more granular stats and Kohl game logs:

 

MiLB.com:

http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=t509&player_id=640464#/career/R/pitching/2015/ALL

 

Baseball Reference:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=stewar000koh

 

Fangraphs:

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa737436&position=P