Kohl Stewart - 2015

[markos]

 

Over four innings, Kohl faced 18 batters and surrendered 4 hits (including 1 2B) and 2 walks and was charged with 4 earned runs.   He struck out two of the first four batters but did not strike out any others.   Despite the rough 4^th inning, it’s a little surprising he was replaced to start the 5^th inning.   The Miracle tied the game in the bottom of the 4^th and it does not seem likely that Kohl’s pitch limit (whatever it is) was reached against 18 batters.   Hopefully, his early removal was not health related.

I might be mis-remembering, but I recall that the Twins had a policy with Alex Meyer that he was automatically pulled if he had more than 30 pitches in an inning. I could be the case that Stewart operates under similar rules, and that his 4th inning was too long. 

[Dance with Disco Dan]

Start No. 11 (06/23/15)

 

In his first start following the FSL All-Star break, Kohl pitched (arguably) his best game of the season.   Facing the Palm Beach Cardinals for the second time this season, Kohl pitched six shutout innings in a 2-0 Miracle win.   It was the first time this season that he had a scoreless outing. 

 

Over the six innings, Kohl surrendered 5 hits (including 2 2B) and 3 walks but was able to work out of trouble by striking out the last batter in the 4^th inning with the bases loaded and inducing a groundball double play in the 6^th inning.   In addition to shutting out the opponent, it was particularly nice to see Kohl record 5 strikeouts which matched his season high.    Overall, it was a very good performance and it could have been a great performance but for too many walks and a lower-than-typical groundball rate (47.1%).   Hopefully, Kohl will string together a few similarly strong outings and reinvigorate the interest of the Twins Daily prospect enthusiasts.

 

Box Score:

 

Player              IP        H         R         ER       BB       SO       HR      ERA

Kohl Stewart   6.0       5          0          0          3          5          0          3.62

 

Season Stats:

 

IP:   59.2

ERA:   3.62

FIP:   3.38

WHIP:   1.47

AVG:    .288

GO/AO:    2.16

K/9:   4.53

W/9:   3.17

                       

Check these webpages for Kohl’s game logs and more granular stats:

 

MiLB.com:

http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=t509&player_id=640464#/gamelogs/R/pitching/2015/MINORS

 

Baseball Reference:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=stewar000koh

 

Fangraphs:

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa737436&position=P

[Dance with Disco Dan]

Start No. 12 (06/29/15)

 

In this game, Kohl pitched his 6^th Quality Start in 12 outings but he was outdueled by the Dunedin Blue Jays pitching staff as the Miracle fell 3-1.   Overall, Kohl fared well against a lineup that featured five of the Blue Jays’ middle-tier prospects (ranked between 8^th and 23^rd on MLB.com).  Nevertheless, he was charged with his 5^th loss of the season.

 

Over six innings, Kohl faced 25 batters surrendering 7 hits (including 2 2B) and 1 walk and was charged with 3 runs (2 earned).    Kohl had the Blue Jays beating the ball into the ground for most of the game and did a nice job with his control.   As has been the story for most of the season, the Blue Jays were able to cluster their hits against Kohl and score a few runs.   Detractors looking for a narrative would argue that Kohl “loses composure” and allows a couple hits to snowball into a big inning.   Supporters would argue that he has been a bit unlucky in the sequencing of the hits he allows.   Without seeing the games, it’s impossible to know where on the continuum between those two positions the truth resides.

 

Box Score:

 

Player              IP        H         R         ER       BB       SO       HR      ERA

Kohl Stewart   6.0       7          3          2          1          2          0          3.56

 

With the season half over, it’s appropriate to do a mini Love/Hate list of Kohl’s season stats:

 

Love:

 

·         13.1 LD%.   This line-drive rate at the MLB level is elite—only one MLB pitcher has a 2015 LD% below 14% and only 3 others have rates below 17%.   By way of comparison, Chih-Wei Hu (having a great season in the FSL) has a 16.8% LD%.   The take away: Kohl does not give up hard contact even allowing for the depressed offense in the FSL.

 

·         56.8 GB%.  This groundball rate at the MLB level is also elite—only MLB 10 pitchers have a 2015 GB% higher than 56%. 

 

·         0 HR.   Kohl has yet to surrender a home run this season (and has allowed only 1 3B).   Granted, the FSL is not a home run league but this stat reinforces the conclusion that Kohl doesn’t allow much hard contact.

 

Hate:

 

·         4.39 K/9.   The FSL average is 7.3 K/9.   More than anything, this is the stat that must improve if Kohl is to be a top-line pitcher.   Even though he is demonstrating that it’s difficult to make hard contact against him, to be elite Kohl must better limit the number of balls in play by increasing his strikeouts.

 

·         1.46 WHIP.   The FSL average is 1.26 WHIP.   Kohl has been slightly more wild than league average—3.02 BB/9 vs. 2.49 BB/9.   The walks coupled with being hit more than league average results in a WHIP 16% below the mean.

 

·         .288 AVG against.   The FSL average is .249 AVG.   Even allowing that Kohl does not strike out a lot of batters, the batting average against Kohl indicates that he’s been unlucky this season. His top-drawer LD% and GB% (over a large enough sample) should result in a better-than-league-average AVG.   Consider, by way of comparison, Ryan Eades who is having a nice season in the FSL (2.92 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, .255 AVG).   Kohl and Ryan have surrendered nearly the exact same number of balls in play (229 vs. 232).   Even though Ryan has given up 36 more fly balls and 11 more line drives, Kohl has surrendered 2 more hits.   The take away: If Kohl continues to generate the mix of contact that he’s generated so far this season, it’s probable that his AVG against will improve a great deal.

 

Season Stats:

 

IP:   65.2

ERA:   3.56

FIP:   3.34

WHIP:   1.46

AVG:   .288

GO/AO:   2.15

K/9:   4.39

BB/9:   3.02

 

Check these webpages for more granular stats and Kohl game logs:

 

MiLB.com:

http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=t509&player_id=640464#/career/R/pitching/2015/ALL

 

Baseball Reference:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=stewar000koh

 

Fangraphs:

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa737436&position=P

[Dance with Disco Dan]

Start Nos. 13, 14, & 15 (07/05/15, 07/11/15 & 07/18/15)

 

I am woefully behind on my Kohl updates and I am going to resort to a combo-entry to get back on track.   I blame vacation and all the attendant hassles of clearing my desk before leaving and tackling the backlog upon return.   On the bright side, I was able to catch a couple of Twins victories while I was in MSP.

 

In Start No. 13, Kohl faced the St. Lucie Mets for the first time this season.   He pitched seven innings but left the game trailing 3-2.   Fortunately, the Miracle rallied in the 8^th inning and won 5-4.   Over the seven innings, Kohl surrendered 7 hits including 2 doubles and the first home run of his season (which was completely predictable because I’d just pointed out in my previous post that he had not given up a long-ball).   This game marked the first time in Kohl’s career that he surrendered more than 2 extra-base hits.   He also issued 2 walks but struck out a season-high 6 batters.

 

Box Score:

 

Player              IP        H         R         ER       BB       SO       HR      ERA

Kohl Stewart   7.0       5          3          2          2          6          1          3.47

 

In Start No. 14, Kohl faced the Clearwater Threshers (a Phillies affiliate) for the second time this season.   Redeeming himself against the team responsible for his worst outing this season, Kohl pitched seven innings and collected his 4^th win in a 6-1 Miracle victory.   Over the seven innings, Kohl surrendered 7 hits (including 1 2B), issued 3 walks and was charged with 1 earned run.   He only struck out 2 batters but induced 3 ground-ball double plays.

 

Box Score:

 

Player              IP        H         R         ER       BB       SO       HR      ERA

Kohl Stewart 7.0         7          1          1          3          2          0          3.28

 

In Start No. 15, Kohl faced the Brevard County Manatees (a Brewers affiliate) for the second time this season.   He pitched six innings and left the game leading 6-3.   Unfortunately, the bullpen could not hold the lead and the Miracle fell, 7-6.   Over the six innings, Kohl surrendered 5 hits (including 1 2B), issued a season-high tying 4 walks and was charged with 3 runs (but only 2 earned).   He struck out 4 batters and 3 of the 5 hits against him were ground balls. 

 

Box Score:

 

Player              IP        H         R         ER       BB       SO       HR      ERA

Kohl Stewart   6.0       5          3          2          4          4          0          3.26

 

Some takeaways from these three games:  (i) Kohl racked up 3 more Quality Starts and is now 9 for 15--and that figure includes his first start off the disabled list when he was on a very limited pitch count;  (ii) Kohl’s GB% remained strong (50.8%) but slipped a bit from his season average;  (iii) Kohl’s LD% also remained strong (16.3%) but also slipped a bit from his season average;  and (iv) Kohl’s walk rate continues to creep higher and warrants monitoring.

 

Season Stats:

 

IP:   85.2

ERA:   3.26

FIP:   3.49

WHIP:   1.42

AVG:    .275

GO/AO:    1.93

K/9:   4.62

W/9:   3.26

                       

Check these webpages for Kohl’s game logs and more granular stats:

 

MiLB.com:

http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=t509&player_id=640464#/gamelogs/R/pitching/2015/MINORS

 

Baseball Reference:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=stewar000koh

 

Fangraphs:

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa737436&position=P

[Dance with Disco Dan]

Start No. 16 (07/25/15)

 

Kohl’s 16^th start was pushed back a day due to rain and the game was shortened to seven innings to accommodate the make-up double-header.   The opponent was the Tampa Yankees and, although Kohl pitched his 6^th straight Quality Start, the Miracle fell 2-0.   Kohl was assessed the Loss dropping his record to 4-6 on the season.   Fun fact: the Miracle has scored a total of 6 runs in Kohl’s 6 losses. 

 

Kohl pitched a strong game although the Yankees had a fair number of baserunners.   Over six innings, Kohl surrendered 7 hits (including 2 2B) and 3 walks but he helped himself tremendously with key strikeouts.    For example, in the 4^th inning the Yankees had the bases loaded and only one out and Kohl struck out the next 2 batters.   In fact, Kohl recorded a season-high 7 strike outs.   He also had the Yankees killing worms causing 14 of the 19 balls they put in play to be hit on the ground (including 4 of the 7 Yankees hits).

 

Box Score:

 

Player              IP        H         R         ER       BB       SO       HR      ERA

Kohl Stewart   6.0       7          2          1          3          7          0          3.14

 

Clearly, the big news for Twins prospect watchers was the seven strikeouts in six innings.   But we should not overlook the return of Kohl’s groundball dominance.   Over the previous several games his GB% had been hovering around 50% which is good but not at the elite levels he displayed earlier in the season.   If Kohl can maintain his current GB% and have a K/9 rate above 7.5 (or so), he’ll be a star and everything Twins fans hoped for when he was drafted.   Of course, this is one game and the strikeouts may be just an outlier.    Time will tell. 

 

What we do know now is that Kohl is currently pitching very well (last six starts: 1.89 ERA; 56.7 GB%; and 6.15 K/9).   He has also officially passed his inning total of last year when he was shut down early.   Let’s hope he continues to improve and finishes the season healthy.

 

Season Stats:

 

IP:   91.2

ERA:   3.14

FIP:   3.42

WHIP:   1.44

AVG:    .275

GO/AO:    2.00

K/9:   5.01

W/9:   3.34

                       

Check these webpages for Kohl’s game logs and more granular stats:

 

MiLB.com:

http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=t509&player_id=640464#/gamelogs/R/pitching/2015/MINORS

 

Baseball Reference:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=stewar000koh

 

Fangraphs:

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa737436&position=P

[Dance with Disco Dan]

Start No. 17 (07/31/15)

 

Just when Kohl really seemed to be hitting his stride, he took the mound against the Daytona Tortugas (a Reds affiliate) and it wasn’t pretty.   He was relieved with one out in the 6^th inning trailing 7-0 in a game the Miracle lost 8-1.   To say that Kohl didn't “have it” in this game understates the situation.   Not only was this his worst overall performance of the season, he posted career-worst stats in the following categories: Runs (7); Earned Runs (7); Wild Pitches (4); and Hit By Pitch (2).   Clearly, Kohl was not right and hopefully there is not an injury issue.

 

Kohl was undone by two big innings in which he gave up 3 and 4 runs, respectively.   A good amount of his problems were self-inflicted by hitting 2 batters and giving up 6 free bases via wild pitches.  In the 5.1 innings, Kohl surrendered 7 hits (including 1 3B and 1 HR) and 1 walk.   On its face, this is not objectively terrible particularly since 4 of the 7 hits were groundballs.   Unfortunately, all 7 hits were hit in the two big innings.   As Twins fans came to appreciate early this season, bunching a few hits often beats scattering several hits.  Unlike last game, Kohl was unable to help himself with strikeouts in key situations and he only recorded one against the Tortugas.

 

Box Score:

 

Player              IP        H         R         ER       BB       SO       HR      ERA

Kohl Stewart   5.1       7          7          7          1          1          1          3.62

 

About the only positive that can be gleaned from this outing is that 14 of 21 balls put in play were groundballs.   In short, this was one to forget and hopefully Kohl gets back on track his next start.

 

Season Stats:

 

IP:   97.0

ERA:   3.62

FIP:   3.62

WHIP:   1.44

AVG:    .278

GO/AO:    2.03

K/9:   4.82

W/9:   3.25

                       

Check these webpages for Kohl’s game logs and more granular stats:

 

MiLB.com:

http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=t509&player_id=640464#/gamelogs/R/pitching/2015/MINORS

 

Baseball Reference:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=stewar000koh

 

Fangraphs:

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa737436&position=P

[Dance with Disco Dan]

Start No. 18 (08/06/15)

 

Kohl bounced back from his career-worst performance in a big way.   Facing the St. Lucie Mets for the second time, he pitched seven strong innings and left the game leading 5-1 in a 6-5 Miracle victory.   Although a Mets rally after Kohl left the game prevented him from picking up the win, there was little else disappointing about this performance.   In fact, he recorded his second highest Game Score of the season.

 

Over the 7 innings, Kohl surrendered just 6 hits (including 1 3B) and 2 walks and was charged with 1 earned run.    His defense turned two double plays and he struck out 6 Mets (including 4 looking).   He also had a 55 GB%.    A couple updates ago, I suggested that if Kohl could get his K/9 at 7.5 (or above) and maintain his strong GB%, he’d be a star.   This game is what that looks like.   Now, let’s hope he can show more consistency through the end of the season.

 

Box Score:

 

Player              IP        H         R         ER       BB       SO       HR      ERA

Kohl Stewart   7.0       6          1          1          2          6          0          3.46

 

Season Stats:

 

IP:   104.0

ERA:   3.46

FIP:   3.54

WHIP:   1.42

AVG:    .279

GO/AO:    1.97

K/9:   5.02

W/9:   3.20

                       

Check these webpages for Kohl’s game logs and more granular stats:

 

MiLB.com:

http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=t509&player_id=640464#/gamelogs/R/pitching/2015/MINORS

 

Baseball Reference:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=stewar000koh

 

Fangraphs:

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa737436&position=P

[Dance with Disco Dan]

Start No. 19 (08/12/15)

 

Facing the St. Lucie Mets for the second-straight start, Kohl pitched a game with GREAT results—6.2 innings of shutout baseball in a 1-0 Miracle victory.  But if there ever was a disconcerting shutout performance, this game was it.   The red flag was a significant increase in squared-up contact allowed by Kohl.

 

Kohl’s calling card this season has been a very high GB% (high-50s) and a very low LD% (mid-teens).   Both of these ratios took a beating in this game.  His GB% was 41% and his LD% was 45% (yikes).   For perspective, Kohl’s previous high this season was 26.9 LD% and his second highest was 20.8 LD%.   In total, Kohl surrendered 10 line drives to the Mets.  Prior to this game he’d only surrendered as many as 5 line drives twice.   In fact, in 12 of his 19 starts, he surrendered 2 or fewer line drives.   In this context, the amount of hard contact he gave up was more than a bit shocking.   It was even more shocking that the Mets were unable to turn that hard contact into runs.

 

If nothing else, Kohl’s outing highlights that baseball is capricious.   It also highlights that a pitcher can have a lot of success when his hits-allowed are spread across multiple innings rather than bunched in a few innings.   This season, hits-in-bunches has often been Kohl’s undoing.   In the 6.2 innings, Kohl surrendered 8 hits (including 1 2B) and 1 walk and struck out 5 Mets.   His defense helped the cause by throwing out a runner at the plate, turning a double-play, and gunning down a would-be base-stealer.

 

Box Score:

 

Player              IP        H         R         ER       BB       SO       HR      ERA

Kohl Stewart   6.2       8          0          0          1          5          0          3.25

 

Season Stats:

 

IP:   110.2

ERA:   3.25

FIP:   3.54

WHIP:   1.42

AVG:    .281

GO/AO:    1.96

K/9:   5.12

W/9:   3.09

                       

Check these webpages for Kohl’s game logs and more granular stats:

 

MiLB.com:

http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=t509&player_id=640464#/gamelogs/R/pitching/2015/MINORS

 

Baseball Reference:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=stewar000koh

 

Fangraphs:

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa737436&position=P

[Dance with Disco Dan]

Start No. 20 (08/18/15)

 

In Start No. 20, Kohl took the mound against the Charlotte Stone Crabs (a Rays affiliate) in the second game of a double header.   He was very solid in pitching the full 7 innings of the truncated game and earning his 6^th win in a 5-2 Miracle victory.   This game marked Kohl’s 13^th Quality Start in 20 outings this season and his 9^th Quality Start in his last 10 outings.

 

Over the 7 innings, Kohl surrendered only 6 hits (including 2 2B) and issued no walks. He had moments of wildness uncorking his 11^th wild pitch and hitting his 6^th batter (I presume unintentionally) and he only struck out 2 batters.   Nevertheless, after they scored 2 runs on three hits in the 3^rd inning, Kohl totally shut down the Stone Crabs retiring the last 13 batters of the game.   A big part of that was Kohl’s ability to keep the ball on the ground—63.6 GB%.   [A slight side note, either the spirit of Gene Mauch has taken up residence in the Charlotte dugout or they were seriously worried about their ability to score on Kohl; in two of the first three innings the Stone Crabs sacrifice bunted after leadoff hits.   It makes me wonder how long a manager making those decisions will work for the Rays, an organization that fully understands that folly].

 

Box Score:

 

Player              IP        H         R         ER       BB       SO       HR      ERA

Kohl Stewart   7.0       6          2          2          0          2          0          3.21

 

I generally disdain cherry-picking parts of seasons to make a point, but I think it’s warranted in this case:

 

·         Kohl has started 20 games this season and posted a league-average ERA (3.21) and W/9 (2.91) and a below-league-average WHIP (1.39) and K/9 (4.97);

 

·         Looking at just his last 10 starts, however, Kohl has posted ERA (2.53), WHIP (1.29), W/9 (2.81) and K/9 (5.63);

 

·         And, if we really want to play around and give Kohl a mulligan by stripping out the disastrous game he threw on Trade-Deadline day, he has posted ERA (1.69), WHIP (1.28), W/9 (2.91) and K/9 (5.98) over the second half of his season.

 

The point this cherry-picking makes is that Kohl has been pretty damn good over the second half of his season (and improving).   Given that he found himself on the DL with elbow tightness after only three starts, his ability to return to the rotation and take the ball every turn coupled with his consistently good (not great) performance as a 20 year old in High-A is under-appreciated.   [That said, I want him to strike out 9 batters game, too.  So Kohl's on notice!].

 

Season Stats:

 

IP:   117.2

ERA:   3.21

FIP:   3.41

WHIP:   1.39

AVG:    .279

GO/AO:    2.00

K/9:   4.97

W/9:   2.91

                       

Check these webpages for Kohl’s game logs and more granular stats:

 

MiLB.com:

http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=t509&player_id=640464#/gamelogs/R/pitching/2015/MINORS

 

Baseball Reference:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=stewar000koh

 

Fangraphs:

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa737436&position=P

[Dance with Disco Dan]

Start No. 21 (08/24/15)

 

In this game, Kohl had his second poor start of the season’s second half.   Facing the Jupiter Hammerheads (a Marlins affiliate) for the second time this season, he was pulled in the 6^th inning trailing 5-3 in a 10-3 Miracle loss.   Despite the score, the story of Kohl’s outing was not the Hammerheads’ offensive output as much as it was Kohl’s wildness and the Miracle’s decision to play defense with frying pans instead of gloves.

 

In the 3^rd inning, the Hammerheads scored two runs on a walk, a single, a wild pitch that moved the runners up, a sacrifice fly that plated the first run, and a balk that plated the second run.   In the 5^th inning, they scored two more runs on a walk, a walk, and a double that scored both runners.   And in the 6^th inning, the Hammerheads scored three more runs as a direct result of the defense booting two inning-ending balls (in total, the Miracle committed 5 errors).

 

In the 5.2 innings, Kohl surrendered only 5 hits (including 1 2B) but walked 3 batters, threw one wild pitch and balked in a run.   He also only managed to strike out 3 Hammerheads.   On the plus side, he had a 71.4 GB% and 9.5 LD % (very strong ratios that he’d take every game).   The walks were clearly his undoing.   After issuing 10 walks over three starts last month, Kohl had only walked 4 total batters in his last four starts so this relative lack of control represents a step back—and one that he paid for in this game.   The balk was pretty random and can probably put in the when-it-rains-it-pours column.

 

Box Score:

 

Player              IP        H         R         ER       BB       SO       HR      ERA

Kohl Stewart   5.2       5          7          4          3          3          0          3.36

 

Season Stats:

 

IP:   123.1

ERA:   3.36

FIP:   3.42

WHIP:   1.39

AVG:    .276

GO/AO:    2.08

K/9:   4.96

W/9:   2.99

                       

Check these webpages for Kohl’s game logs and more granular stats:

 

MiLB.com:

http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=t509&player_id=640464#/gamelogs/R/pitching/2015/MINORS

 

Baseball Reference:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=stewar000koh

 

Fangraphs:

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa737436&position=P

[Pius Jefferson]

Sorry, but I'm not seeing reason for much optimism. Even mediocre to below strikeout pitchers in the majors blow Stewart out of the water with their minor league K/9 numbers. Also doesn't help that opponents are hitting .276 and his WHIP of 1.39 isn't exactly light out.

[Dance with Disco Dan]

Start No. 22 (09/01/15)

 

Kohl’s 22^nd start got pushed back two days because of weather.   For the second straight game he faced off against the Jupiter Hammerheads (a Marlins affiliate) but this game had a little added intrigue.   The Hammerheads’ starting pitcher was the rehabbing Jarred Cosart and their right fielder was some guy named Giancarlo Stanton.   Overall, Kohl pitched well going six innings in a 5-2 Miracle victory.

 

Over the six innings, Kohl faced 25 batters and surrendered only 4 hits (including 1 2B).   Unfortunately, his wildness carried over from last game as he walked 4 Hammerheads.   The Miracle’s miscues also carried over as two outfield errors led directly to the two runs scored against Kohl (both unearned).   His GB% (61.1%) and his LD% (11.1%) were very good but, again, his strikeout total was low—3 strikeouts.   The most encouraging takeaway from this start was Kohl’s performance against Stanton who popped out to foul territory, walked, and struck out swinging.   A very fair showing against a guy who's hit 27 MLB homers in 279 ABs this season.

 

Box Score:

 

Player              IP        H         R         ER       BB       SO       HR      ERA

Kohl Stewart  6.0        4          2          0          4          3          0          3.20

 

Season Stats:

 

IP:   129.1

ERA:   3.20

FIP:   3.46

WHIP:   1.38

AVG:    .273

GO/AO:    2.09

K/9:   4.94

W/9:   3.13

                       

Check these webpages for Kohl’s game logs and more granular stats:

 

MiLB.com:

http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=t509&player_id=640464#/gamelogs/R/pitching/2015/MINORS

 

Baseball Reference:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=stewar000koh

 

Fangraphs:

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa737436&position=P

[Dance with Disco Dan]

Season Wrap-Up

 

Kohl entered this season with the big expectations of a high draft pick but also with a few big question marks after a solid-but-not-dominating season in low-A.   He exited the season as one of the most polarizing prospects in the Twins’ system. 

 

There is no doubt that this board’s consensus on the range of likely outcomes for Kohl has changed a great deal based on his performance this year.   When he was drafted the range was:  Bust<-- --> All-Star.   Now, most observers fall on the continuum between:  Bust<-- -->Mid-Rotation Starter.   And the Bust contingent is growing.

 

Twenty years ago, the board would’ve been fairly pleased with Kohl’s development.   He posted a league-average ERA (3.20) as a 20 year-old competing in the FSL, bounced back from an early-season stint on the DL for elbow inflammation to make 19 additional starts, and increased his workload by 42.1 innings over last season.   But today, we know all too well the correlation between strike-out rate and major-league success.   And for Kohl, K/9 is not a question mark, it’s a glaring problem. 

 

This season Kohl posted a K/9 of 4.9 when FSL league-average was 7.2.   This rate was down significantly from his K/9 of 6.4 in low-A which already had many questioning Kohl’s ability to succeed as he moves up in competition.   On a few occasions this season, forum threads were started about Kohl and two camps emerged: (i) those that already have written Kohl off as a prospect because of the strike-out rate, and (ii) those that are not happy about the strike-out rate but are taking a wait-and-see approach.   Among the reasons put forward by those in the wait-and-see camp are the possibility that Kohl is not utilizing his full repertoire of pitches due to injury or other development concerns and the fact that he is 20 years old and may get better at the pitches he throws or develop additional pitches.   Many in the bust camp are dismissive of the idea that Kohl is not utilizing his full repertoire given this was his third season in pro ball.

 

I am in the wait-and-see camp.   To me, it’s an easy choice because Kohl has demonstrated two elite skills—he generates a very high number of ground balls and allows a very low percentage of line drives.   According to MLBFarm.com, Kohl’s GB% was 59.4% and his LD% 13.9% (note: calculating these rates using the raw data on Baseball Reference results in slightly worse rates).   In MLB this season, only 3 qualified starting pitchers had a higher GB% and no such pitcher had a lower LD% (of course, this is not an apples-to-apples comparison but it provides context).

 

For those that don’t already know, a groundball is a good thing because the slash-line on grounders is .232/.250/.483.   Conversely, a line-drive is a very bad thing resulting in a slash-line of .685/.883/1.568.   So, while waiting for Kohl to develop a strike-out pitch, I am content to know that the contact he does allow is far less likely to result in runs than most other pitchers—on per-ball-in-play basis, at least.   The rub, of course, is that more balls are being put in play against Kohl because he does not strike out many batters.   That fact coupled with only average BB/9 rates means Kohl is susceptible to death by a thousand cuts.

 

I will say an article titled “Are Groundball Pitchers Overrated” on The Hardball Times (http://www.hardballtimes.com/are-groundball-pitchers-overrated/) took away a little bit of my confidence in the likelihood of Kohl’s success should he remain a high GB% but low K/9 pitcher.   The article takes the reader into somewhat-deep statistical waters but I like that kind of thing and I found the data and analysis very interesting.   I recommend taking a look, but some of the key takeaways are that groundball pitchers as a group: (i) tend to have less “rise” on their fastballs and thus fewer strikeouts (often by design- i.e. far more two-seamers than four-seamers), (ii) do not generate many pop-ups (which are statistically equivalent to strikeouts); and (iii) surrender more home runs per fly-ball.

 

Next season, I imagine Kohl will start at AA although there could be a bit of a log-jam for rotation spots in Chattanooga.   Hopefully, Kohl will have another healthy season and take a big step forward in his development.