Houston Cubs trade

[gunnarthor]

Dexter Fowler to Chicago for Luis Valbuena and Dan Straily.  I really liked this trade for the Astros.  Fowler was a pretty overrated player and both Valbuena and Straily (while not great players themselves) really help out Houston right away.  Valbuena had a bit of a break out season last year, although at 29, that may have been his career year.  Straily was one of those A's pitchers who looked ok in Oakland but struggled outside of it. But that's a solid return for Fowler, who is a FA at the end of the year and just a butcher in the OF.

[jokin]

Dexter Fowler to Chicago for Luis Valbuena and Dan Straily.  I really liked this trade for the Astros.  Fowler was a pretty overrated player and both Valbuena and Straily (while not great players themselves) really help out Houston right away.  Valbuena had a bit of a break out season last year, although at 29, that may have been his career year.  Straily was one of those A's pitchers who looked ok in Oakland but struggled outside of it. But that's a solid return for Fowler, who is a FA at the end of the year and just a butcher in the OF.

 

Epstein's no dummy, he has an excellent knack for acquiring short-time, place-holding talent, talent that is heavily incentivized as they approach Free Agency. In the process, Epstein keeps improving his team long-term- increment by increment.  He made a nice flip on CF/2B Bonifacio last season for a top ten catching prospect. The pieces he traded were blocking/expendable... now look for Fowler himself to get flipped for a decent return, assuming the Cubs aren't contending, or they keep him to season-end and make a QO. 

 

As far as Fowler's "butchery" something screwy happened with Fowler's defensive metrics in 2014, the numbers were far askew of his career marks (could it be related to the exaggerated Astro defensive shifts? It seems that almost anybody's defensive numbers would be suspect with how much the Astros shifted in 2014).  He isn't a great CF by any means, but he's really not that bad (he certainly would have been a major upgrade for the Twins).

[gunnarthor]

That's a good point - defensive metrics never liked him but the Astros did do weird shifts that might have made him worse than he was. 

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

Rumors are swirling about the Astros and Colby Rasmus now in the wake of the Fowler trade.

Apparently Rasmus is in Houston for a physical and could sign with the Astros soon...

[Mike Sixel]

I don't get why the Twins don't want Rasmus.....given their alternatives.

[gunnarthor]

I don't get why the Twins don't want Rasmus.....given their alternatives.

Maybe they like Hicks/Schafer better.  Maybe they don't like Rasmus at all - he had a .287 OBP last year, he missed a lot of games and he has had attitude issues dog him.  

[Linus]

I don't get why the Twins don't want Rasmus.....given their alternatives.

Especially since the market for him seems to be pretty lukewarm, meaning he could likely be had for a short or one year contract for reasonable money.  I get that he is not Willie Mays, but he really would help the Twins out in center this year and as a corner or back up once BB arrives.

[bird]

Maybe they like Hicks/Schafer better.  Maybe they don't like Rasmus at all - he had a .287 OBP last year, he missed a lot of games and he has had attitude issues dog him.  

My guess is he failed the character quiz with Ryan.

[jimmer]

I don't get why the Twins don't want Rasmus.....given their alternatives.

it will be interesting to see what he gets from Houston.

[Linus]

Maybe they like Hicks/Schafer better.  Maybe they don't like Rasmus at all - he had a .287 OBP last year, he missed a lot of games and he has had attitude issues dog him.  

It seems pretty clear they are not interested in him given how long he has been out there and no links between the Twins and him.  I understand if they are concerned about the potential attitude issues - they are more important than most people realize when it comes to constructing a winning team and clubhouse.  I would be disappointed if the reason is they like Hicks / Schafer better.  I suppose there is a chance that one of the two breaks out but I think we are drawing for an inside straight on that one.  My guess is we are posting here in July saying "What in the hell were they doing not bringing in a CF for the 3rd year in a row".

[jokin]

I don't get why the Twins don't want Rasmus.....given their alternatives.

 

Simple really, Houston is ready to go for it, this year, the Twins aren't. (To illustrate where both teams are at- contention-wise, the Twins would have significantly upgraded with the CF that the Stros just discarded).

[Otto von Ballpark]

MLBTR hears Rasmus will get "over $4 million":

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/01/astros-talking-with-colby-rasmus.html

 

If it's anything close to $4 mil, that's cheap.  MLBTR predicted him at 1/12 or 3/30.

[jimmer]

MLBTR hears Rasmus will get "over $4 million":

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/01/astros-talking-with-colby-rasmus.html

 

If it's anything close to $4 mil, that's cheap.  MLBTR predicted him at 1/12 or 3/30.

sure is better than 1/10M :-)

[JB_Iowa]

Double the 4....

 

Jon Morosi ‏@jonmorosi  · 18m18 minutes ago 
Colby Rasmus' deal is one year at $8 million, source says. No club or player options included.

[jimmer]

Double the 4....

 

Jon Morosi ‏@jonmorosi  · 18m18 minutes ago 

Colby Rasmus' deal is one year at $8 million, source says. No club or player options included.

and an even better deal, Aoki for 2/12.5

[whosafraidofluigirussolo]

Yeah, I may have wanted Rasmus at the money he got, but I definitely would have been psyched had that Aoki deal been with the Twins instead. 2nd year is even an option, if I remember correctly, so the team is locked into even less of a commitment.

[jimmer]

Yeah, I may have wanted Rasmus at the money he got, but I definitely would have been psyched had that Aoki deal been with the Twins instead. 2nd year is even an option, if I remember correctly, so the team is locked into even less of a commitment.

The Giants reportedly will pay their newest left fielder $4 million in 2015. The one-year deal also includes a $5.5 million club option for 2016 and a $700,000 buyout, along with bonuses that could make the deal worth as much as $12.5 million.

 

IMO, between the Hunter, Rasmus and Aoki deals, the Aoki one is very clearly the best IMO.

[Otto von Ballpark]

IMO, between the Hunter, Rasmus and Aoki deals, the Aoki one is very clearly the best IMO.

I'm not sure that Aoki can passably play center field.  (And some evidence suggests he didn't do so well in RF last year either).

 

Not to mention his alarming drop in power the last two years -- he's basically been at Nick Punto career ISO levels.

 

It's not a bad contract, but I'm not sure he's that great of a player.  Rasmus seems to bring a lot more to the table.

[jimmer]

I wasn't talking about Aoki for CF I was talking about Aoki for RF and he's been a steady 2-3 WAR guy, while Hunter was barely over 0.0. He's been a better defender than Hunter the last couple years, with Aoki having the 4th best UZR for RF last year, and the 2nd best UZR/150 for RF last year while Hunter was dead last in both.

[JB_Iowa]

It sounds like Aoki gave a discount to be in SF so the likelihood of him signing with Minny would have been low,

[jimmer]

It sounds like Aoki gave a discount to be in SF so the likelihood of him signing with Minny would have been low,

maybe, not sure but maybe.  Either way, we kind of put ourselves out of the running for him pretty quickly by signing Hunter so soon.

[biggentleben]

maybe, not sure but maybe.  Either way, we kind of put ourselves out of the running for him pretty quickly by signing Hunter so soon.

 

Aoki stated in an interview that he rejected larger offers because he wanted the chance to win and play, and San Fran was the best combination of the two.  Sounds like my Braves were one of the teams offering more, but I can't fault him for going to the Giants if he wants to win in the next two seasons.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I wasn't talking about Aoki for CF I was talking about Aoki for RF and he's been a steady 2-3 WAR guy, while Hunter was barely over 0.0. He's been a better defender than Hunter the last couple years, with Aoki having the 4th best UZR for RF last year, and the 2nd best UZR/150 for RF last year while Hunter was dead last in both.

Sure, I'd prefer Aoki to Hunter.  But I think I'd prefer Rasmus to both, given the added flexibility of CF.  Aoki's contract might be a better "value" but I would want the better / more versatile player.

[jimmer]

Aoki stated in an interview that he rejected larger offers because he wanted the chance to win and play, and San Fran was the best combination of the two.  Sounds like my Braves were one of the teams offering more, but I can't fault him for going to the Giants if he wants to win in the next two seasons.

Don't they always say stuff like that?  Grains of salt, I suppose. I also imagine if that's really where he wanted to play and wasn't looking for better monetary options, he wouldn't have waited so long to sign, especially when it was such a low contract.

[jimmer]

Sure, I'd prefer Aoki to Hunter.  But I think I'd prefer Rasmus to both, given the added flexibility of CF.  Aoki's contract might be a better "value" but I would want the better / more versatile player.

either way, the Hunter contract is the one I dislike the most by a large margin.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Don't they always say stuff like that?  Grains of salt, I suppose. I also imagine if that's really where he wanted to play and wasn't looking for better monetary options, he wouldn't have waited so long to sign, especially when it was such a low contract.

I'd be inclined to believe that an Asian player preferred to play on the west coast.  The fact that the team is the defending world champs makes it even better.

 

And the wait may not have been of Aoki's doing -- maybe he was waiting on the Giants, who in turn may have been waiting on other free agents or trade possibilities.  Maybe he tried to get a deal with Seattle.  Who knows.

 

According to MLBTR, early reports had Aoki seeking a 3 year deal, perhaps he was holding out awhile for that.

[biggentleben]

I'd be inclined to believe that an Asian player preferred to play on the west coast.  The fact that the team is the defending world champs makes it even better.

 

And the wait may not have been of Aoki's doing -- maybe he was waiting on the Giants, who in turn may have been waiting on other free agents or trade possibilities.  Maybe he tried to get a deal with Seattle.  Who knows.

 

According to MLBTR, early reports had Aoki seeking a 3 year deal, perhaps he was holding out awhile for that.

 

Nevermind the outfield market held up by the trade market.  They guys who were willing to "settle" early for less than what they were projected for got solid money compared to the rumored deals for these guys who had to wait while Heyward, Upton, Cespedes, and others were traded around the league.