Ryan on OF defense

[Otto von Ballpark]

Thanks ashbury, that was perfectly stated.

[jay]

I think he's capable of telling Terry that defensive stats are half cooked. I don't think he's capable of suggesting how to finish the recipe. So in that light, it's quite possible that what you're suggesting is exactly what he's telling Terry, and no more, and that's a missed opportunity.

 

I had a similar role once or twice in my career, and it's how business people operate. It can be successful, but also can carry you only so far.

From what I gather, Jack is a manager. Having someone bridge the gap from data nerd to the front office seems appropriate and I'm not so sure I'd expect him to be the guy with the solution. In IT projects, there's usually the guy who can explain it in a way that makes sense to everyone else. He isn't the tech wiz doing the coding and that's okay.

 

Some orgs are probably approaching the point where almost everyone is a data nerd, but right or wrong, I don't think we're one of them.

 

In any fashion, the Twins are quite secretive about how that analytics team operates and what they do (which is okay in my book), so I think we're making some big assumptions to say what Jack does or doesn't do.

[ashbury]

In any fashion, the Twins are quite secretive about how that analytics team operates and what they do (which is okay in my book), so I think we're making some big assumptions to say what Jack does or doesn't do.

You are correct about assumptions, and while I liberally sprinkled "I think" and "possible" in my post, an extra one can't hurt.  I agree also that if they ramp up, he's well placed to coordinate; and I left out but hopefully it's inferred that I think he's probably smart.  That said, the secrecy also fits the pattern I was describing; sometimes it's well to keep quiet if your steps are still tentative.

[tobi0040]

You are correct about assumptions, and while I liberally sprinkled "I think" and "possible" in my post, an extra one can't hurt.  I agree also that if they ramp up, he's well placed to coordinate; and I left out but hopefully it's inferred that I think he's probably smart.  That said, the secrecy also fits the pattern I was describing; sometimes it's well to keep quiet if your steps are still tentative.

 

You guys have said some things about our statistics department that I have been thinking about for quite some time. I think the Twins needed a statistics department (to my knowledge it may just be one guy) to say they have one. 

 

But if you look at the background of some other organiations, Ivy League quant types/management consultant backgrounds, etc.  They differ quite a bit from Goins and are much larger.  My understanding is he was in ticket sales and just finished his MBA from St. Thomas, then started the statistics department.

 

I think it is safe to say that our department is not on par with others or has less influence, or both.

[Linus]

I don't think it is a surprise or a mistake that TR doesn't pay much attention to defensive metrics.  They can be wildly inaccurate and if he has scouts that saw Torii 40 times last year it makes sense that he would rely on that.  Plus, there are aspects of playing defense that are simply not captured by the metrics; I would not be surprised at all if Goin's contribution to this conversation was "defensive metrics are not accurate enough for good decision making" and I would have no problem with it.

 

I really wished they would have signed Colby Rasmus.  However, the decision to sign an inferior defender wasn't made because he didn't have good information, regardless of the form of said info.  He knows what he is getting and made the choice.  Now we shall see.....

[tobi0040]

 I would not be surprised at all if Goin's contribution to this conversation was "defensive metrics are not accurate enough for good decision making" and I would have no problem with it.

 

 

I think you have enough different metrics out there, including some with a scout component, the eye test, and reality suggesting he is a below average defender.  My personal opinion was that Hunter has always gone back well, which resulted in a few HR robbing catches a year.  In his prime when he probably was a plus defender, those highlights made him look like the top in the game, but he never really was.  I think the Twins have this view that he started from Andrew Jones caliber and lost a step and I think both of those are wrong.

[Otto von Ballpark]

From what I gather, Jack is a manager. Having someone bridge the gap from data nerd to the front office seems appropriate and I'm not so sure I'd expect him to be the guy with the solution. In IT projects, there's usually the guy who can explain it in a way that makes sense to everyone else. He isn't the tech wiz doing the coding and that's okay.

 

Some orgs are probably approaching the point where almost everyone is a data nerd, but right or wrong, I don't think we're one of them.

 

In any fashion, the Twins are quite secretive about how that analytics team operates and what they do (which is okay in my book), so I think we're making some big assumptions to say what Jack does or doesn't do.

Well, the manager is also often in charge of hiring -- and in this case, basically creating his entire department.  He has to identify the right data nerds (despite not being one himself) and hire them, not to mention devising processes and goals for his whole department, which is a huge hurdle before you even get to the "bridge" aspect of management.

 

From my experience in such matters (sometimes as "the wrong hire" myself ), and what we know about the Twins department history and recent job posting (and what we know about the people who hired Goin), I would be very surprised if there was much behind their secrecy.  (In fact, I don't know if they're really all that secretive compared to other clubs -- just a variety of factors seem to suggest their ambition/interest is somewhat low in this regard.)

[jay]

In fact, I don't know if they're really all that secretive compared to other clubs -- just a variety of factors seem to suggest their ambition/interest is somewhat low in this regard.

I agree on the first part -- you'd expect all clubs to be secretive in that space.

 

The second part I'm not so sure on, but that's certainly possible. If I was trying to develop a system to take advantage of the new Field F/X data (or whatever it's called), I do know I'd do everything possible to make it look I had low ambition/interest.

[Linus]

I think you have enough different metrics out there, including some with a scout component, the eye test, and reality suggesting he is a below average defender.  My personal opinion was that Hunter has always gone back well, which resulted in a few HR robbing catches a year.  In his prime when he probably was a plus defender, those highlights made him look like the top in the game, but he never really was.  I think the Twins have this view that he started from Andrew Jones caliber and lost a step and I think both of those are wrong.

Difference of opinion here, especially since he already has the scout component.  I think TR knows exactly what he is getting and that the information gathering method is not the point of error.

 

Regarding Torii, I would have a higher opinion than you when he was in his prime - he was pretty damn good in all facets of outfield play.  I do remember noticing that he lost a step even before he left the Twins.....

[tobi0040]

Difference of opinion here, especially since he already has the scout component.  I think TR knows exactly what he is getting and that the information gathering method is not the point of error.

 

Regarding Torii, I would have a higher opinion than you when he was in his prime - he was pretty damn good in all facets of outfield play.  I do remember noticing that he lost a step even before he left the Twins.....

 

He was above average in his prime, no doubt.  But he was never the elite defender many think or his 9 GG's show.   His career dWAR is 4.7.  He has had one season over 2.0 (2.3).   Andrew Jones has a career dWAR of 24.7. He has six seasons over 2.0, including seasons of 3.8 and 3.9.

 

My point is many start out with him on Jones level, or elite.  Then they say, he has lost s step of two over the last 10-11 years.  So we grade him as average.  But if you start out with him as above average and tack on 11 years it is hard to talk yourself to him being average, which clearly the Twins scouts have (not defensive metrics).

[Riverbrian]

Who here has ever said only use stats? Name one person?

1st Question: I don't know

 

2nd Question: Erin Burnett

[Riverbrian]

FWIW, I don't think Jack Goin is an expert on analytics.  Goin is a guy in the organization who has the right temperament and no prior expertise and was tasked to keep tabs on what's going on in the analytics world and report back, and apply some methods where he can.  I think he's capable of telling Terry that defensive stats are half cooked.  I don't think he's capable of suggesting how to finish the recipe.  So in that light, it's quite possible that what you're suggesting is exactly what he's telling Terry, and no more, and that's a missed opportunity.

 

I had a similar role once or twice in my career, and it's how business people operate.  It can be successful, but also can carry you only so far.

Good post... Very well could be...

 

I'm under the impression that Terry Ryan relies on his staff quite a bit. I have no way of knowing for sure but I gather that impression from nearly everytime he talks about his final decisions. He always seems to say "our scouts like him... Have seen him"... Stuff like that.

 

I've even heard him say something like this about an acquisition... "I haven't seen him but our guys were really high on him".

 

There are a lot of people on the payroll and they do stuff and I assume they are advocates of something at sometime and I think Terry trusts them and the process.

 

It's probably like anywhere else in business. Someone liked Torii Hunter and someone convinced the boss and the boss put a number on it with help from someone who helps put a number on it.

 

The same process happened in Kansas City and Texas... Someone advocated for Hunter for those teams as well.

[James Richter]

 

“I don’t want to blame our (pitching) problems on outfield defense,” [TR] said. “It affected (pitching) some, but not huge.”

I find these statements disheartening not because they are dismissive of attempts to objectively evaluate defense, but because they are dismissive of DIPS theory. Is it not a settled question that previous season xFIP is a better predictor of future ERA than previous season ERA? Nearly every Twins pitcher who logged significant IP last season had a higher ERA than their FIP/xFIP. Overall, HR/FB wasn't out of line. Strand rates were pathetically low in many cases - I am optimistic that the new coaches can improve that somewhat. But it should be obvious how much the OF defense hurt the pitching staff, particularly for an organization that has frequently invested its highest draft picks on toolsy OFs who have value in the field. It should be doubly obvious after watching the success of the Royals, whose OFs do pass the eye test for being awesome, and whose starters' results by xFIP were nearly identical to those of the Twins. 

 

It's wise to take the defensive metrics with a very big grain of salt, particularly one-year samples. But it's hard for me to see how anybody in TR's position could still be off the DIPS bandwagon. I hope I'm wrong - I guess we'll see when they pick up the next rotation piece... if it's a low K/9, high FB% "proven innings eater..." ugh.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Frankly, I wonder if a lot of my pals on TD shouldn't ask themselves this question: am I so enamored by the saber metric spreadsheets that I undervalue everything else that goes into making a competent evaluation and overvalue the limited information to which I DO have access? 

 

Not defending the Hunter move here. I hate bad OF defense. I bet Ryan knows that Hunter is subpar defensively, but is willing to overlook the problem, counting on the prospects to prove they can produce offensively during the course of what he hopes is a .500 season.

maybe Hunter will be great in RF and I will be eating my words. TR can gloat and say, see, I really am smarter than Sconnie on TD. But the evidence doesn't trend that way. The evidence says Hunter is a 39 year old outfielder who plays like a 39 year old outfielder should. And the last thing this group of fly ball pitching, high contact, low k, pitchers needs is more balls hitting the turf. I don't buy defensive metrics in isolation UZR is extremely dicey in its method, but if you add it all up, it all points in the direction of decline. I've seen enough of the veteran presence. What is Hunter going to mentor the kids on? How to call reporters names in press conferences? If the coaching staff can't do it, what makes you think Hunter can?

[jokin]

I find these statements disheartening not because they are dismissive of attempts to objectively evaluate defense, but because they are dismissive of DIPS theory. Is it not a settled question that previous season xFIP is a better predictor of future ERA than previous season ERA? Nearly every Twins pitcher who logged significant IP last season had a higher ERA than their FIP/xFIP. Overall, HR/FB wasn't out of line. Strand rates were pathetically low in many cases - I am optimistic that the new coaches can improve that somewhat. But it should be obvious how much the OF defense hurt the pitching staff, particularly for an organization that has frequently invested its highest draft picks on toolsy OFs who have value in the field. It should be doubly obvious after watching the success of the Royals, whose OFs do pass the eye test for being awesome, and whose starters' results by xFIP were nearly identical to those of the Twins. 

 

It's wise to take the defensive metrics with a very big grain of salt, particularly one-year samples. But it's hard for me to see how anybody in TR's position could still be off the DIPS bandwagon. I hope I'm wrong - I guess we'll see when they pick up the next rotation piece... if it's a low K/9, high FB% "proven innings eater..." ugh.

 

Great summation.  can it be that the former long-time manager, pitching coach and the current pitchers haven't been petitioning their GM  to "do something" about upgrading the OF over the last two years, and specifically this last year, where the club hit rock bottom, and was frequently reduced to fielding one or two of six separate infielders in the OF (where apparently only Bartlett had the sense to walk away from such nonsense after an epic team embarrassment), plus one absolute butcher in RF coupled with not one, not two, but three statues who were masquerading as OFers.