Twins considering the NL pitching well, yet again. Soon-to-be 38, Ryan Vogelsong is on the Twins radar

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

I'd rather they go after Jake Peavy if they want a former SF Giants pitcher that is old.

[nicksaviking]

That wouldn't be the end of the world, though.

 

Yeah, it would only mean the 2016 MLB Draft thread starts in May instead of June.

[Mike Sixel]

"hitting", that's code for did it 1 time or 2, not that is what he does all the time. There was a great article by a former player (on ESPN, I think) about how he "hit" mid-90s once or twice, and his whole career changed.....

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

I think it was Dirk Hayhurst that mentioned during visits from scouts he would throw one or two pitches as hard as he possibly could to make the radar gun read somewhere around 95 or 96, even though he had no control of the pitch and couldn't repeat it without hurting himself. That way scouts could say "his fastball hits 96" and since they only visit the one or two times a year, he would pitch normally when they weren't around..

[ashbury]

I think it was Dirk Hayhurst that mentioned during visits from scouts he would throw one or two pitches as hard as he possibly could to make the radar gun read somewhere around 95 or 96, even though he had no control of the pitch and couldn't repeat it without hurting himself. That way scouts could say "his fastball hits 96" and since they only visit the one or two times a year, he would pitch normally when they weren't around..

Further evidence for the saying "be careful of what you measure, for that is all you shall get".

[nicksaviking]

Further evidence for the saying "be careful of what you measure, for that is all you shall get".

 

Sounds like the start of a dirty interpretation contest.

[ashbury]

Sounds like the start of a dirty interpretation contest.

I got that saying from a fortune cookie, so if you're familiar with the game based on reading those, maybe you're right.

[jokin]

I'd rather they go after Jake Peavy if they want a former SF Giants pitcher that is old.

 

+1 Yup, now why hasn't that thought been more seriously entertained by the braintrust?

[Trevor0333]

I agree with the sentiment here, sign a high quality #2. That's how you create depth, by pushing guys like Nolasco & Gibson down to 4/5 starters. This is why I like the idea of going after Anderson.

 

I doubt the get Vogelsong for less than 2/15. If that means Pelfrey is destined for Swarzaks role I can live with it.

[ashbury]

I doubt the get Vogelsong for less than 2/15. If that means Pelfrey is destined for Swarzaks role I can live with it.

Swarzak's role being "No Longer With The Team"?

[jokin]

LEN3 just came out with his pre-Winter Meeting article, in which Ryan Vogelsong is played up prominently among three SPs featured in his discussion. According to LaVelle's sources, Justin Masterson is moving on "without the Twins."  Brett Anderson is mentioned next, followed by Vogelsong:

 

 

 

Another starter the Twins have been linked to is righthander Ryan Vogelsong, who went 8-13 with a 4.00 ERA with the Giants. He is 37 years old but still averaged 7.4 strikeouts per nine innings in 2014.

 

Ryan made it clear he would like to add someone to upgrade the rotation, not just take a spot.

“We are looking for someone who is going to get people out and give us a a chance to win games,’’ he said. “You can go about that in different ways.

“I don’t want to throw it out there that we are looking for someone just to eat innings. We are looking for someone who is going to give us quality innings.”

Well, just to get the disappointment out of the way, back in early August, I wrote, that assuming that they were going to whiff on Shields, they needed to prioritize the possible Hughes-like production upside of Masterson, Anderson and McCarthy.  At least Anderson's name is still on the table. 

 

Does Vogelsong fit these criteria- for either "quality innings" or Hughes-like upside?  Well first off, Steamer isn't buying a repeat performance from 2014, and presumably with NL numbers?:

 

2014 results w/ 2015 Vogelsong projections->

2014 IP 184 ERA 4.00 FIP 3.85 K/9 7.36 BB/9 2.83 BF/IP 4.22

2015 IP 153 ERA 4.44 FIP 4.46 K/9 6.86 BB/9 2.85 BF/IP 4.35 

 

 

Quality innings from Vogelsong?

2014 BF/IP numbers for Twins starting pitchers->

 

Hughes 4.08

Gibson  4.22

Nolasco 4.35

Deduno 4.40

Milone   4.40

Swarzak 4.40

Correia  4.46

May       4.66

 

Pelfrey   4.45  (in 2013)

 

Consider the transition from the NL.  Nolasco's 2013 BF/IP number was 4.18, while Correia's 2012 number was 4.25, obviously the jump to the AL tends to reduce the quality of the innings pitched- Vogelsong's BF/IP is 4.35 for the 2015 Steamer projection (w/ an NL assumption?), it seems like a Pelfrey or Correia-like number of 4.46 jumping to the AL is within the realm of possiblity.

 

Now consider 2014 ERA+ ->

 

Vogelsong  87

 

Gibson  88

Deduno 86

Swarzak 86

Correia  80

Nolasco 73

 

Pelfrey 79  (in 2013)

 

Even if Vogelsong could semi-miraculously reproduce that 87 ERA+ after defying his career trend, plus moving to the AL.... why would the Twins want to pay him some $8M to find out?  Why, indeed? 

[notoriousgod71]

They never learn, do they?

[tobi0040]

I think vogelsong is the missing link. And think of the mentorship vogelsong will give Meyer when vogelsong is in our rotation and Meyer is in aaa. Then we cut the guy in August and bring up Meyer.

[glunn]

Moderator note -- please contain the sarcasm.  We are looking for respectful debate not squabbling.

[nicksaviking]

Moderator note -- please contain the sarcasm.  We are looking for respectful debate not squabbling.

 

Wouldn't squabbling imply there is a disagreement as to whether the Twins should sign Vogelsong?  I think this might be the first unanimous thread in TD history!  The "nays" have it, Mr. Ryan.