Justin Masterson & Travis Wood

[jokin]

Since one of the top FAs was likely never going to happen anyway,  I was endorsing Justin Masterson as a classic Ryan FA target back during the regular season.  In that regard, I was encouraged to see MLBTR report that the Twins are indeed interested in Masterson, and the writer of the article made the strongest case for the Twins in acquiring.  It turns out he's looking for a short-term landing place to make good, ala the Phil Hughes situation, but only seeking one or two years. That should be right in Terry's contract-comfort-zone-wheelhouse.  The big red flag is the 3MPH drop-off in velocity in the FB and 2.5MPH drop in his other main pitches.  But he's still getting the big GB number and a high K/9 of 8.11, and his numbers were hurt by abnormally high BABIP and LOB results. Assuming he's not a major health risk, it's time to pull the trigger.

 

 http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/minnesota-twins

 

Minnesota is also mentioned as a possible landing spot for Travis Wood.  At first glance, he seems to be a carbon copy of Tommy Milone- both soft-toss lefties, similar in stature, virtually the exact same age (28 in 2015), ERA+ of 96, 97, respectively, both potential bounce-back candidates,

 

but-

 

Milone's ERA+ in 2014 was 57, so he needs to bounce back quite a bit farther from Wood's 2014 ERA+ of 76- the data indicates that Wood was more the victim of bad luck, while Milone appears to have had the bottom fall out on his career, plus Wood has a little more velocity and K-potential. Wood was a 2nd round draft pick, Milone a 10th rounder. 

 

If both are potential non-tender candidates and fill a LHSP need, it seems worth considering a swap out. 

[beckmt]

No to both.  Twins need to see if Meyer, May and Berrios(if he get to Minnesota this year) can help.  Then the Twins will know how many starting pitchers they need to aquire.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Milone's ERA+ in 2014 was 57, so he needs to bounce back quite a bit farther from Wood's 2014 ERA+ of 76

That was Milone's Twins ERA+, in just 21 innings.  His season ERA+ was 90.

 

I'm not bullish on Milone, and I am concerned about his poor finish, but even I don't think his performance baseline for bouncing back is a 57 ERA+.

[iTwins]

Travis Wood was the victim of a pretty bad BABIP last year, meaning his 2014 numbers are skewed towards the negative. He's likely to contribute more akin to his 2013 totals...that being said, those numbers just make him a back end option who will also be making that nasty jump from NL to AL (if the Twins signed him). I think he's a good "reclaimation project" for someone, but that someone should probably be an NL team with a good defense.

 

I can get why people are excited about Masterson, but I'm just not on board. If we're not going to get one of the big fish (which, let's be honest, we're not) I'd rather roll with youth.

[jokin]

That was Milone's Twins ERA+, in just 21 innings.  His season ERA+ was 90.

 

I'm not bullish on Milone, and I am concerned about his poor finish, but even I don't think his performance baseline for bouncing back is a 57 ERA+.

 

Good catch, my fast-stat-rendering mistake.  Regardless, I didn't see anything from Milone in his time here that suggested the Twins make any kind of commitment to him now that he's Arb-eligible.  Being the sole LHSP isn't much of a qualification to just hand Milone a roster spot- what does Kurt Suzuki know that Milone has failed to demonstrate?  

 

IMO, other veteran LHSP options should be considered,  I get the NL pitching stigma with respect to the Twins, but if Wood is released, he should be one of the bargain bin options in the consideration mix for the Twins.

[TheLeviathan]

No to both.  Twins need to see if Meyer, May and Berrios(if he get to Minnesota this year) can help.  Then the Twins will know how many starting pitchers they need to aquire.

 

These things need not be mutually exclusive.

[Kwak]

At some point the Twins need to put up (promote and play the top minor leaguers) or shut-up ("we got the best ...").  That time is now.  It is counterproductive to sign placeholder-quality players.  Sign a top player--the type wanted for 4+ years--or don't bother.  Masterson is a thrower, not a pitcher.  Pelfrey fits the mold of thrower quite well--if that's what Ryan wants to play one of those guys.  Pelfrey was signed to do that and he will be paid in any case, so Pass on Masterson.

[jokin]

At some point the Twins need to put up (promote and play the top minor leaguers) or shut-up ("we got the best ...").  That time is now.  It is counterproductive to sign placeholder-quality players.  Sign a top player--the type wanted for 4+ years--or don't bother.  Masterson is a thrower, not a pitcher.  Pelfrey fits the mold of thrower quite well--if that's what Ryan wants to play one of those guys.  Pelfrey was signed to do that and he will be paid in any case, so Pass on Masterson.

 

I'll be surprised if Pelfrey is effective in any role but as a reliever, and gone by August.

[jokin]

These things need not be mutually exclusive.

 

No to both.  Twins need to see if Meyer, May and Berrios(if he get to Minnesota this year) can help.  Then the Twins will know how many starting pitchers they need to aquire.

 

"You can never have enough pitching."  

"No such thing as a bad one-year contract."

[DocBauer]

"You can never have enough pitching."  

"No such thing as a bad one-year contract."

This.

 

I want to go in to next season with Hughes, Gibson (betting an even better version), a fully healthy and back to normal version of Nolasco, May, and Meyer as the 5th starter (helps keep IP in check). I know we are in a rebuild, but are we really being remotely practical to just march those 5 out there without other options? The team absolutely has the resources to deepen rotation options WITHOUT circumventing the rebuild or blocking anyone. First, guys get hurt. Second, while it's not my first choice, guys can become acclimated and developed in the pen before moving to the rotation. Third, Masterson could be flipped by the trading deadline if successful, OR, a healthy and proven Nolasco with 2 years remaining on his deal could also be flipped.

 

Look at Masterson's 2011 and 2013 season and tell me that guy couldn't improve our rotation and chances of winning. No 4th-5-the starter type there. Even in his poor '12 season he started 34 games, logged 206IP and struck out 159. He doesn't come in to block anyone. He comes in on a reasonable deal to improve your team and your options.

[Otwins]

I would like to see Masterson and even one more signing.  Start May and Meyer in the bullpen. Stretch them out as we need starters which we will.  The bullpen needs help also. Hughes, Gibson, Nolasco and two additions.

[USAFChief]

Didnt Liriano turn down a qualifying offer? I doubt he turned down $15m for one year to take $16.2 for two years.

[Linus]

This.  Plus let's not forget that as well as Frankie has pitched at times for the Pirates, he still had a couple of his famous periods where he is pretty bad.  Not even remotely interested in giving up a pick and large contract to relive that nightmare.

[jokin]

I would like to see Masterson and even one more signing.  Start May and Meyer in the bullpen. Stretch them out as we need starters which we will.  The bullpen needs help also. Hughes, Gibson, Nolasco and two additions.

 

Good take, that's about where I'm at, and more importantly, I hope with the help of some Pohlad and Molitor encouragement, that's where Terry Ryan is at ,as well.  Plus you have the chance to get a bounce-back season towards career-norms from both Nolasco and Masterson (2-year deal?) to possibly offset some regression from Hughes and/or Gibson.  Add a one-year deal on a #5-level, reliable innings eater with a cheap, incentive-laden contract, you can then potentially have a Triple M triumvirate- "Plan B" (May, Meyer, Milone) in the wings, who could all be both pen and starter depth options- this would be potentially the best SP depth options for the Twins in years.  Pelfrey might also still be hanging around if they can't move him by the end of ST, but in any case, the Twins would have 3 expiring SP contracts with the new 5th starter, Milone and Pelfrey, so theoretically, only one of May or Meyer would be blocked for one season going into 2016. (If Masterson could also be signed for one year, that would mean no one would be blocked for 2016).

[jokin]

Good take, that's about where I'm at, and more importantly, I hope with the help of some Pohlad and Molitor encouragement, that's where Terry Ryan is at ,as well.  Plus you have the chance to get a bounce-back season towards career-norms from both Nolasco and Masterson (2-year deal?) to possibly offset some regression from Hughes and/or Gibson.  Add a one-year deal on a #5-level, reliable innings eater with a cheap, incentive-laden contract, you can then potentially have a Triple M triumvirate- "Plan B" (May, Meyer, Milone) in the wings, who could all be both pen and starter depth options- this would be potentially the best SP depth options for the Twins in years.  Pelfrey might also still be hanging around if they can't move him by the end of ST, but in any case, the Twins would have 3 expiring SP contracts with the new 5th starter, Milone and Pelfrey, so theoretically, only one of May or Meyer would be blocked for one season going into 2016. (If Masterson could also be signed for one year, that would mean no one would be blocked for 2016).

 

 

Dougie reports that the Twins are apparently thinking along the same lines:

 

 

 

Darren Wolfson @DarrenWolfson  ·  Nov 16

The #MNTwins have inquired about Masterson, I'm told. Sure, they're checking in on OFs, but finding a starter or two is the top priority.

 

(FWIW, it is Doogie, afterall).