Hitting with RISP

[stringer bell]

I'm posting this in the Twins forum, but the problem appears to be league-wide (except when facing the Twins), can't anybody get a hit with the game on the line? Today, Toronto and Detroit have had multiple chances to take the lead or win the game in extra innings, but they've both failed and left a ton of runners on the pads. This season, I would say that the Twins have been dreadful scoring runners who get in scoring position and doubly dreadful scoring them from third with less than two out.

 

Even guys who are having decent seasons (Dozier, Escobar) have spit out the bit when a fly ball would be big and a hit would be huge.

 

I'm seeing a lot of close games with a lot of runners left and that combination must mean that guys aren't hitting when it really counts. What's the deal?

[Brock Beauchamp]

Offense is down, period. Guys aren't making as much contact and not hitting the ball as hard when wood manages to connect with the ball. That carries to every aspect of the game but it's particularly noticeable when your attention is at its peak (ie. runners in scoring position). Observational bias, I'd say.

[ashbury]

While I go along a lot with what Brock said, they do keep count of these things.  Have a look at

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/split.cgi?t=b&lg=AL&year=2014

 

and scroll down to where you find the string "2 outs, RISP". BA there is .218 versus an overall BA of .255.  That's over 7585 PA at this writing, which is either a large sample or a small one compared to all PA of 66413.

 

I looked at 2010 and 2006, and 2 out RISP BA was lower than overall but not by this large a margin.  Something seems odd this year.

[snepp]

That BABIP of .267 in those situations is ridiculously low.

[ashbury]

Good explanation. 

 

SSS after all.  (Does Florimon need 7585 PA before we can conclude he's not a major league hitter?)

[snepp]

It is a pretty crazy anomaly, and one that I can't even begin to explain other than, "**** happens."

[stringer bell]

While I go along a lot with what Brock said, they do keep count of these things.  Have a look at

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/split.cgi?t=b&lg=AL&year=2014

 

and scroll down to where you find the string "2 outs, RISP". BA there is .218 versus an overall BA of .255.  That's over 7585 PA at this writing, which is either a large sample or a small one compared to all PA of 66413.

 

I looked at 2010 and 2006, and 2 out RISP BA was lower than overall but not by this large a margin.  Something seems odd this year.

Thanks Ash. This confirms what I have anecdotally observed. It would figure that the numbers for hitters would improve soon, probably by next year. I imagine there is negative momentum, that is, that individual failures would cause the hitters to press and fail more.

[Willihammer]

BABIPs in 2006 and 2010 also skewed lower than normal in 2 out situations. It does seem to be getting worse now though. Any theories?

[Thegrin]

Increased numbers of power pitchers. Increased strikeouts.   Look at the number of strikeouts that Joe Mauer has had. 

[GCTF]

Good explanation. 

 

SSS after all.  (Does Florimon need 7585 PA before we can conclude he's not a major league hitter?)

Sure, as long as he gets the next 6800 with another team.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Could the effect of defensive shifts be more pronounced with 2 outs and RISP?  Defenses more willing to sell out for a shift in that situation?  Batters behaving more predictably?

 

Also, how many of these 2 out, RISP situations involve relievers as compared to starters?  Are starters now more likely to get pulled earlier in such situations?  Or even worse relievers could be more likely to get pulled too, in favor of dominant bullpen options (and many teams seem to have multiple of these).  Higher-K tendencies of batters could be more exploited in such situations too.