Alex Meyer Timetable: 2002 Johan Santana?

[Otto von Ballpark]

I was just recalling Johan Santana's rise with the Twins, and it highlighted some parallels with Alex Meyer, so I thought I'd share my research.

 

DISCLAIMER: In case it is not clear, in no way am I comparing Santana and Meyer in physical size, pitching style, or path to MLB, nor am I forecasting Santana-like season results or career for Meyer.  Simply comparing how the two have been handled thus far in the season following a low-innings season.

 

2000 Santana : 2012 Meyer

Obviously Santana was a Rule 5 pick who thus made MLB at age 21, but neither Santana nor Meyer had extensive pro innings prior to their "injury seasons".  In any case, it is the following season (2001) where the Meyer implications really begin.

 

2001 Santana : 2013 Meyer

Santana was injured most of 2001, missing nearly 4 months although he avoided surgery.  He pitched only 43 innings that year, all in MLB though mostly out of the bullpen, and his 5.8 K/9 and 10.3 H/9 still suggested Rule 5 mopup man.  Meyer's 2013 was a model of health and excellence by comparison, pitching 104 inning between AA, a rookie league rehab stint, and the Arizona Fall League (with a combined 11.0 K/9 and roughly league average 3.4 BB/9), plus an additional 15 IP at "fall instructional league" according to Mike Berardino (which he counted towards Meyer's season innings baseline, more on that later).

 

2002 Santana : 2014 Meyer

In 2002, Santana opened the season at AAA and at age 23 started to become "classic Johan", K'ing 13.9 per 9 innings to lead the league although he also had a BB/9 rate of 5.0, 50% higher than the league rate at the time.  Meyer's age 24 AAA debut hasn't been quite as dynamic, but his K/9 rate of 10.2 still leads among starters in his league, and his BB/9 rate is only 20% higher than the league rate.

 

Despite the limited innings and the walks, Santana was recalled after only 48 AAA innings, in late May 2002, and proceeded to be a regular member of the rotation the next 3 months, skipped a couple times but starting 14 games with great results (10.9 K/9 and 6.9 H/9 as a starter) despite a still-high BB/9 rate (4.5).  With a combined 139 IP (90 in MLB), Santana was sent to the bullpen at the beginning of September for 24 more bullpen innings through September and the playoffs.  157 regular season IP in total for Santana in 2002, plus 6 more in the playoffs.

 

Meyer?  He is still in AAA in late July, with 101 IP, despite extended MLB rotation openings in May, June, and July, and he is on pace for somewhere around 140 before September and a possible shutdown (Rob Antony was previously quoted as targeting a 30% innings increase, which would put him between 135-155 IP depending on whether you include fall instructional league innings in his 2013 baseline total).

 

2003 Santana : 2015 Meyer?

Now, the 2002 Twins were contenders, so they obviously had more immediate incentive to deploy Johan in MLB, but while keeping his innings at a reasonable level (near Meyer's 2014 suggested limit), they still got plenty of information on him that season which was valuable going into 2003: while Johan was still pegged as starter #6, the Twins were able to stand pat on the FA SP market that winter, and only added Kenny Rogers on very favorable terms in late March after Eric Milton was was effectively lost for the season.  As a bonus, they got some quality major league pitching for 2002, even if the pitcher in question wasn't yet a finished product.

 

The 2014 Twins?  August is a few days away, a possible Meyer shutdown maybe a month away, and I still have no idea where to count on Meyer (or May) in formulating our 2015 SP plan and depth chart.

[AlwaysinModeration]

Other than being taller, right-handed, harder throwing, a college pitcher, slower rise to majors, and likely not to get time in the bullpen, I see it.

[AlwaysinModeration]

Two points I really like about this comparison: poor walk rates aren't the kiss of death to prospects, and the bullpen-to-starter path is a really savvy path to put young pitchers on. High K rates and declining walk rates is the best combo. And easing a prospect in in the bullpen--and "trading" for a starter when he gets promoted, is a double positive.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Other than being taller, right-handed, harder throwing, a college pitcher, slower rise to majors, and likely not to get time in the bullpen, I see it.

Hey now, I thought my disclaimer at the end was pretty clear.  Maybe I will move it to the beginning.

[AlwaysinModeration]

Hey now, I thought my disclaimer at the end was pretty clear.  Maybe I will move it to the beginning.

It was. I couldn't resist. They just seem like such an odd couple. Meyer is the best pitching prospect since Liriano, but before that, Santana. I sure hope for a more Santana-career arc than Liriano!

[Otto von Ballpark]

Two points I really like about this comparison: poor walk rates aren't the kiss of death to prospects, and the bullpen-to-starter path is a really savvy path to put young pitchers on. High K rates and declining walk rates is the best combo. And easing a prospect in in the bullpen--and "trading" for a starter when he gets promoted, is a double positive.

That's what I was getting at.  Neither Meyer's BB rate nor his 2 month absence in 2013 necessitate him spending all (or virtually all) of 2014 in AAA.

 

And even good teams with seemingly full rotations like the 2002 Twins have been able to work in young talent, all while limiting their innings and seeing how their skills play in MLB.  It should be much easier for a team with less rotation stability and much lower expectations to contend like the 2014 Twins.

[Mike Sixel]

I agree, the FO has bungled this completely. Next year we'll hear the reason they signed another crappy FA pitcher is "because you can't count on 2 rookies in the rotatation", I'd guess. This is a negative post, and I apologize for that, but it is how I feel. about this FO right now.

[Otto von Ballpark]

It was. I couldn't resist. They just seem like such an odd couple. Meyer is the best pitching prospect since Liriano, but before that, Santana. I sure hope for a more Santana-career arc than Liriano!

More accurately, Meyer is probably the best Twins pitching prospect since Garza.  (Garza ranked #21 on BA's top 100 pre-2007, while Meyer is currently looking at 30-40 ranks on most comprehensive lists.)  Garza-level MLB results for Meyer would be pretty good, although hopefully they come in a Twins uniform this time!

 

You could also make the argument that he's only the best Twins pitching prospect since Gibson pre-surgery (ranked #34 by BA before 2011).  I like Meyer's upside better, but Gibson isn't a bad comp for me in terms of modest expectations.

 

Liriano, on the other hand, was a beast in his AAA debut at age 21, and rocketed up to BA's #6 ranking, elite prospect territory (and fully justified by his MLB rookie season).  You could make the argument he was the best Twins pitching prospect ever, since Santana didn't really emerge until he was well past rookie status.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

At this point maybe they are holding Meyer back for next week's two game series vs San Diego?

[James]

I agree, the FO has bungled this completely. Next year we'll hear the reason they signed another crappy FA pitcher is "because you can't count on 2 rookies in the rotatation", I'd guess. This is a negative post, and I apologize for that, but it is how I feel. about this FO right now.

I'm pretty sure they don't need to sign another crappy FA pitcher next year to use that excuse.  They already have Pelfrey.  

 

This is a tough comparison, but it is definitely a good discussion point.  I have a feeling a lot of these issues about call up times will be done shortly.  May is definitely on his way up, and Meyer shortly after.  I know we've said this before, but you could see some reasoning why they haven't been up yet, even if you didn't agree with the reasoning.  

[Mike Sixel]

Dang, I keep forgetting about Iron Mike Pelfrey! Good point.

[Winston Smith]

Mike I think that's a good thing!

[tobi0040]

More accurately, Meyer is probably the best Twins pitching prospect since Garza.  (Garza ranked #21 on BA's top 100 pre-2007, while Meyer is currently looking at 30-40 ranks on most comprehensive lists.)  Garza-level MLB results for Meyer would be pretty good, although hopefully they come in a Twins uniform this time!

 

You could also make the argument that he's only the best Twins pitching prospect since Gibson pre-surgery (ranked #34 by BA before 2011).  I like Meyer's upside better, but Gibson isn't a bad comp for me in terms of modest expectations.

 

Liriano, on the other hand, was a beast in his AAA debut at age 21, and rocketed up to BA's #6 ranking, elite prospect territory (and fully justified by his MLB rookie season).  You could make the argument he was the best Twins pitching prospect ever, since Santana didn't really emerge until he was well past rookie status.

Interesting between Garza and Meyer.   Both have a very similar minor league ERA and Meyer has more K's (more BB's though).  Garza was up at age 22 though.

 

My money is on Meyer having a better career.  Garza has a career 3.84 ERA with 7.5 K's per 9.  He really hasn't gotten better than his first two years, 2006-2007 with 3.69 and 3.70 ERA.

[Otto von Ballpark]

My money is on Meyer having a better career.  Garza has a career 3.84 ERA with 7.5 K's per 9.  He really hasn't gotten better than his first two years, 2006-2007 with 3.69 and 3.70 ERA.

Careful -- that's almost a 120 ERA+, which generally ranks #28 MLB among qualifiers any given season.  When you debut that well, it can be very hard to get better, especially for a not-quite-elite prospect.  And if you consistently get near that level, and avoid catastrophic injury, for 8+ seasons, that's a pretty darn good career.  That was kind of the Radke recipe too (although he beats Garza by a bit in ERA+ and a fair amount in IP).

[Badsmerf]

I think the plan is to only allow Meyer top pitch in the playoffs. That way he is like a secret weapon.

[tobi0040]

Careful -- that's almost a 120 ERA+, which generally ranks #28 MLB among qualifiers any given season.  When you debut that well, it can be very hard to get better, especially for a not-quite-elite prospect.  And if you consistently get near that level, and avoid catastrophic injury, for 8+ seasons, that's a pretty darn good career.  That was kind of the Radke recipe too (although he beats Garza by a bit in ERA+ and a fair amount in IP).

Going straight off ERA, he is a #2 starter or so. I expected him to be better given how quickly he came up, his success here.  I think the knock that he didn't listen to coaches potentially hurt his development.  

[beyondclarity]

Simply put, the Twins are dicks when it comes to giving prospects and Twins fans what they deserve.  They love promoting hitting prospects too soon and holding pitchers back too long.  In my mind this logic should be 100% reversed considering the wear and tear on a pitchers arm.