The Future of Trevor Plouffe

[jokin]

In my humble opinion, I don't think Plouffe and Kaline should be mentioned in the same paragraph. Plouffe is about as average as average can be. He's a filler, a place holder.QUOTE]

 

Plouffe is not Al Kaline. But that is the whole theory of platooning. It is how the Tampa Bay Rays pulled out an OPS of over .750 in their OF primarily through platooning journey-man, 4th OF types with great splits playing everywhere but Myers spot. Matt Joyce, Kelly Johnson, and Luke Scott. While Plouffe is not Kaline, the 20-30%of the time you have a lefty pitcher in there, you get a guy that will hit a HR at the same clip as one.

 

You have great production against lefties, an average 3B in total, a potential backup if Sano fails, a fill in when Mauer gets hurt, and depth in the OF in Plouffe. All at a .720 OPS. That is not why this team has lost 90+ games each year. It is the middle infield, OF, and pitching staff. Sounds like a decent $2-3M investment to me.

 

Great post. I just hope that Jack Goin finally convinces the braintrust that these realities are an economically sound way to derive more production, and thus more wins. For example, I'm not sure that Arcia will ever hit LHP at an acceptable level- you have a cheap internal solution to that problem for the next 3 years. It's easy to see why Plouffe would be a perfect fit on the Rays at $3M.

[jokin]

He's a major league average 3B. These don't grow on trees. You won't be able to just look down the bench and find a replacement. I think you're confusing an average player with a replacement level player. As it is, Plouffe is preforming better than half of baseball's 3B right now. As such, he's fine as a placeholder until Sano is ready. When that happens, he's traded. If we are really lucky, he continues with his improvements this year and breaks out next year, increasing his value.

 

Yep, I'm banking on the thought that Ryan recognizes that Plouffe could have his career year next year and give him the chance to pull the trigger on a nice deal if Sano proves he's ready. And if he doesn't, his arb value stays low for another year and you can repeat the process, only with Plouffe taking on a utility role.

[tobi0040]

 

Great post. I just hope that Jack Goin finally convinces the braintrust that these realities are an economically sound way to derive more production, and thus more wins. For example, I'm not sure that Arcia will ever hit LHP at an acceptable level- you have a cheap internal solution to that problem for the next 3 years. It's easy to see why Plouffe would be a perfect fit on the Rays at $3M.

 

Precisely, Arcia's OPS against righties is .779, against lefties he is at .454.

 

Arcia is too young to give up on and he needs at bats against lefties and hopefully he can play every day. But in 1-2 years if we are good and he doesn't, you could platoon those two and combine the .779 OPS and .820 OPS.

 

Only 18 players in all of MLB, spanning all 3 OF positions have higher than a .800 OPS this year. So for under $3M you can get top tier production.

[JustcallupSANO]

With Sano on the horizon the twins should trade Plouffe. He's not going to become any better (only defensively) and he is already in his prime years as a player. Next year you can have Nunez, Escobar, and Romero battle for the starting job in ST till Sano is ready. I have a few teams who could use Plouffe as a 3B:

 

1. New York Yankees

as much as i hate the Yankees i feel like they could be in the mix for a wild card spot and also a 3B. After A-rods suspension they have had a huge gap at 3rd and have tried to fill it with veterens like Kelly Johnson and Brendan Ryan but with no success, so they tried guys in there minor league system like Yangervis Solarte and Zelous Wheeler. Solarte had some success in the begging of the season only later to faal apart and be sent down to AAA and Wheeler has only had limited time at 3rd so far (10 games). If they think they can contend (which its the Yankees, they always have think they have a shot) they could use Plouffe at 3B.

 

2. Kansas City Royals

The Royals started the 2014 season with a platoon at 3B thinking it would help the team. The platoon consists of Mike Moustakas (Left) and Danny Valencia (Right) and its been pretty lopsided as Valencia has done well in his role (2HR 10RBI .293AVG .740OPS in 31 Games) while Moustakas hasn't (10HR 36RBI .192AVG .672OPS in 75 Games). Valencia not likely to become full time starter at 3B because of his ability to hit only left handed pitching with success. They could use Plouffe at 3rd for their run at the postseason.

 

3. LA Angels

A trade in the offseason to get David Freese from the Cardinals for Peter Bourjos seemed good so Freese could play at 3rd for the Angels. lets just say both have been a disappointment but we are focusing on Freese. Freese has been ok at best with 4 homers with 31 RBIs and a .253 Average in 71 games this season. It seems like they could still use a third basemen while Plouffe isn't a huge upgrade he's an upgrade non the less.

[TheDean]

He's a major league average 3B. These don't grow on trees. You won't be able to just look down the bench and find a replacement. I think you're confusing an average player with a replacement level player. As it is, Plouffe is preforming better than half of baseball's 3B right now. As such, he's fine as a placeholder until Sano is ready. When that happens, he's traded. If we are really lucky, he continues with his improvements this year and breaks out next year, increasing his value.

 

Exactly. I know that people on TD are dedicated to following the Twins, but if you've been watching them the last few years, then you begin to appreciate how hard it is to find average starting ML-caliber players. That's distinctly different from replacement-level. That's even different from just generally average players. We're talking average ML-starters.

 

All it takes is a look at the wRC+ (or OPS+) of players fielded for significant PAs recently. If you're looking at >100 PAs, Plouffe is 8th on the team. Ahead of him are question marks about sustainability (Santana/Fuld/Nunez), trade-candidates (Zukes/Hammer), and real parts of a future Twins team (Dozier/Pinto). Looking ahead to 2015, Plouffe could be the #3-#5 bat on the Twins depending on projection of Mauer and Arcia. I see him as a solid defensive and offensive cornerstone, and that has value in future Twins teams or in trades.

[DaveW]

I don't think Plouffe has much trade value and if you are only getting a C level prospect (low upside, back of rotation type guy or what not) then its worth holding onto him for the time being and figure it out next season once/if/hopefully Sano is ready.

 

At that point he will either be hitting enough to earn another full time role, or will be a rather cheap and solid Platoon/PH/Bench player.

[Thor]

Which player ahead of him is available on the free agent market and within the Twins price range that is very easy to replace? Prior to Plouffe, the fact is we have not had an average or above average 3B since Koskie.

 

For years a lot of Twins fans have wished for Koskie back.

 

Trevor is on pace for 68 runs, 40 doubles, 14 homers and 74 RBI.

 

Koskie scored more but some of that has to do with the rest of the lineup.

Koskie never hit 40 doubles, only got 30+ in 3 seasons.

Koskie hit over 14 homers 3 times but one of them was 15.

Koskie only had 1 season of over 74 RBI.

Koskie was smoother with the glove but Trevor is much improved this year.

 

Trevor is hitting his stride at 3rd. He should stay there and with the Twins until Sano forces the issue. If Sano finds out he can't throw next year we might spend another 6-8 years looking for someone as good as Trevor to play 3rd.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Corey Koskie posted a combined WAR of almost 16 in his last three seasons with the Twins.

 

Trevor Plouffe is on track to post a WAR of ~2 this season, which would be a career high.

[jokin]

1. New York Yankees

as much as i hate the Yankees i feel like they could be in the mix for a wild card spot and also a 3B. After A-rods suspension they have had a huge gap at 3rd and have tried to fill it with veterens like Kelly Johnson and Brendan Ryan but with no success, so they tried guys in there minor league system like Yangervis Solarte and Zelous Wheeler. Solarte had some success in the begging of the season only later to faal apart and be sent down to AAA and Wheeler has only had limited time at 3rd so far (10 games). If they think they can contend (which its the Yankees, they always have think they have a shot) they could use Plouffe at 3B.

 

.

 

Solarte is back up with the Yankees and is listed as #1 on their depth chart at 3B. http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/depth/_/name/nyy/new-york-yankees

 

Having said that, all it would take for the Yankees to get on a phone is to take a look at Plouffe's spray chart:

 

http://pitchfx.texasleaguers.com/charts/gen/4618582014033120140716AAAAAspray-chart.png

 

At only 318 down the LF line and 314 down the RF line, Plouffe would have a field day in NY, plus his gap doubles in TF become gap triples in the spacious Yankee Stadium power alleys.

[Shane Wahl]

Well if the option is to platoon him with Arcia after Sano arrives, then fine. We do know that this would require a change of manager, however.

[tobi0040]

Well if the option is to platoon him with Arcia after Sano arrives, then fine. We do know that this would require a change of manager, however.

 

 

The second part, like the first is fine with me.

[Badsmerf]

Brock, a lot of that has to do with defense. Plouffe already has 1.6 WAR on the year, and I'm expecting a big second half from him (if he stays healthy). Across the board he is a better player this year. He is hitting balls hard and playing solid defense. His patience at the plate is getting better too. When you look at advanced metrics for him something has to give. He is posting career high LD%, career low HR/FB and IF/FB (significantly less than previously in the worst kind of contact); all the while he has maintained a similar BaBIP and AVG. These will go up along with the number of HR's he hits. We might be having a very different discussion in 2 months.

 

Why is everyone so convinced Sano is going to push him off the position? I'm not. Sano is will probably be great, but he has contact issue and might get too big for the position. Have we all forgotten Sano's faults? He wouldn't be the first uber prospect to fail. If you're the Twins you don't put all your eggs in the Sano basket. He is going to play the whole season in AA/AAA next year unless he puts up a 1.000 OPS for a half the season. When that happens you worry about moving a solid player. There is only a dozen guys in MLB that are better at 3b. Plouffe is being sold very short on this thread. I hope my predictions come true and he has a big second half.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Brock, a lot of that has to do with defense. Plouffe already has 1.6 WAR on the year, and I'm expecting a big second half from him (if he stays healthy). Across the board he is a better player this year. He is hitting balls hard and playing solid defense. His patience at the plate is getting better too. When you look at advanced metrics for him something has to give. He is posting career high LD%, career low HR/FB and IF/FB (significantly less than previously in the worst kind of contact); all the while he has maintained a similar BaBIP and AVG. These will go up along with the number of HR's he hits. We might be having a very different discussion in 2 months.

 

I'm not bashing Plouffe at all. He's an adequate starter and I'm all for sticking him at third until Sano is ready.

 

But a Koskie comp? That's a bad comparison. Koskie was a very good player. Plouffe is an adequate starter.

[tobi0040]

I'm not bashing Plouffe at all. He's an adequate starter and I'm all for sticking him at third until Sano is ready.

 

But a Koskie comp? That's a bad comparison. Koskie was a very good player. Plouffe is an adequate starter.

 

I am the one that brought up Koskie and I did not do it to compare the two. Koskie had some sick years here. My point was, Plouffe is far and away the best 3B we have had since Koskie and he has been gone for 8 years.

 

If Plouffe makes $3M in arbitration and fills about four backup roles, crushes lefties, plays average or slightly above average 3B, and we have a health question mark at 1B and a position question mark coming up at 3B....seems like a no brainer to me.

 

We can probably dump others to improve the club. Plouffe is not near the top of the list.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I think Trevor Plouffe is the most under-appreciated player on our team. The guy is not Mike Schmidt. I get it. But his OPS the last three years .756, .701, and .727 is average or above average for 3B. I think people on these boards have a distorted view of how thin this position is in the major leagues.

 

Plouffe has been basically average compared to MLB 3B OPS in 2014 and 2012, and was ~5% below average in 2013.

 

But average doesn't mean permanently acceptable -- the average includes a lot of bad players (injury replacements, backups, rookies, over-the-hill vets). I think it is better to look at ranks, with a lower PA threshold than batting title qualifiers to account for injuries, rookies, etc.

 

With 300 minimum PA (or 200 so far in 2014), Plouffe has ranked 23, 25, 21 among 3B at Fangraphs going back to 2012. He's pretty clearly in the bottom 25-30% of MLB third basemen offensively.

 

He will never hit #3 on a championship team, but he could start or certainly be a role, depth, or platoon player on one. Heck, the Red Sox last year had Willie Middlebrooks at 3B and his OPS was .696. The guy makes no money and is controllable.

 

Funny you mention Middlebrooks because he lost his starting job from June into August last year, lost it again during the playoffs, and finally lost it yet again right away this season.

 

And Plouffe doesn't make much, but it's not "no money" anymore -- $2.3 mil this year, probably $3-4 mil in arbitration the next couple years.

 

That said, I don't think he should be replaced now, or even spring 2015, but he's really just a patch to Sano at this point. And I doubt his bat/salary would play in the corner OF regardless of his glove.

[Shane Wahl]

For what it's worth, Dozier's career WAR is 7.3. Plouffe's is 2.9. Maybe bringing those two together in a conversation doesn't really work?

[Otto von Ballpark]

Brian Dozier is less than a year younger and his career triple slash is: .241/.311/.400 (.714) in 1387 PAs and some, including myself, were saying he should go to the All-Star game.

 

You thought Dozier should go to the All-Star game based on his career body of work, and not his career-best season so far in 2014?

 

Or are you suggesting that because Dozier improved dramatically at age 26, that bodes well for Plouffe improving at age 28?

[tobi0040]

Plouffe has been basically average compared to MLB 3B OPS in 2014 and 2012, and was ~5% below average in 2013.

 

But average doesn't mean permanently acceptable -- the average includes a lot of bad players (injury replacements, backups, rookies, over-the-hill vets). I think it is better to look at ranks, with a lower PA threshold than batting title qualifiers to account for injuries, rookies, etc.

 

With 300 minimum PA (or 200 so far in 2014), Plouffe has ranked 23, 25, 21 among 3B at Fangraphs going back to 2012. He's pretty clearly in the bottom 25-30% of MLB third basemen offensively.

 

 

 

Funny you mention Middlebrooks because he lost his starting job from June into August last year, lost it again during the playoffs, and finally lost it yet again right away this season.

 

And Plouffe doesn't make much, but it's not "no money" anymore -- $2.3 mil this year, probably $3-4 mil in arbitration the next couple years.

 

That said, I don't think he should be replaced now, or even spring 2015, but he's really just a patch to Sano at this point. And I doubt his bat/salary would play in the corner OF regardless of his glove.

 

 

I don't know the split between RHP and LHP. But if we assume 75% of the pitchers are righties, you have a guy that could at least be a bench/pinch hit option 75% of the time and a backup at four positions. The other 25% of the time you get a guy with an .820 OPS in your lineup.

 

That is acceptable to me if Sano moves him off 3B. If Sano can't stick my money says we won't find a better 3B for awhile.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I am the one that brought up Koskie and I did not do it to compare the two. Koskie had some sick years here. My point was, Plouffe is far and away the best 3B we have had since Koskie and he has been gone for 8 years.

 

Actually, Cuddyer in 2005 at 3B was pretty much equivalent to Plouffe's present-day production (his defense was worse, but probably comparable to Plouffe at the same age in 2012).

 

Factoring in defense, Joe Crede in 2009 was better than Plouffe.

 

So Plouffe is better than Tony Batista, Luis Rodriguez, Brian Buscher, Mike Lamb, Brendan Harris, non-2006 Punto, and non-2010 Valencia. I don't think anyone here would dispute that, but it says nothing about Plouffe's place on the Twins going forward.

[Dave T]

He's a major league average 3B. These don't grow on trees. You won't be able to just look down the bench and find a replacement. I think you're confusing an average player with a replacement level player. As it is, Plouffe is preforming better than half of baseball's 3B right now. As such, he's fine as a placeholder until Sano is ready. When that happens, he's traded. If we are really lucky, he continues with his improvements this year and breaks out next year, increasing his value.

Well, actually, Escobar is hitting as well as Plouffe and is a much better fielder at 3B. When Santana comes back where does he play? If he is your starting SS, that puts Escobar on the bench.

If Plouffe were traded, I don't think the Twins would notice his absence. The problem is, what could you get in return that would be worth having? Can Polanco play 3B?

[Otto von Ballpark]

I don't know the split between RHP and LHP. But if we assume 75% of the pitchers are righties, you have a guy that could at least be a bench/pinch hit option 75% of the time and a backup at four positions. The other 25% of the time you get a guy with an .820 OPS in your lineup.

 

That is acceptable to me if Sano moves him off 3B. If Sano can't stick my money says we won't find a better 3B for awhile.

 

Your 25% LHP is roughly accurate, in terms of total PA against.

 

But how valuable is a .676 OPS bench/pinch hit option vs RHP? 75% of the time, he will have negative value in this role.

 

Not to mention, who are you going to bench 25% of the time for Plouffe vs LHP? Mauer at 1B? Arcia in RF? Not particularly realistic/desirable... maybe if we're stuck with Parmelee in LF, but then our goal shouldn't be to find/keep a decent sub for Parmelee -- it should be to replace him with a better starter.

 

Still think we will be way better off trading Plouffe to a team that needs a 3B patch as soon as Sano is up.

[tobi0040]

Well, actually, Escobar is hitting as well as Plouffe and is a much better fielder at 3B. When Santana comes back where does he play? If he is your starting SS, that puts Escobar on the bench.

If Plouffe were traded, I don't think the Twins would notice his absence. The problem is, what could you get in return that would be worth having? Can Polanco play 3B?

 

To be fair, Escobar's career OPS is .646.

[tobi0040]

Actually, Cuddyer in 2005 at 3B was pretty much equivalent to Plouffe's present-day production (his defense was worse, but probably comparable to Plouffe at the same age in 2012).

 

Factoring in defense, Joe Crede in 2009 was better than Plouffe.

 

So Plouffe is better than Tony Batista, Luis Rodriguez, Brian Buscher, Mike Lamb, Brendan Harris, non-2006 Punto, and non-2010 Valencia. I don't think anyone here would dispute that, but it says nothing about Plouffe's place on the Twins going forward.

 

Well, we moved Cuddy off 3B because he could not play defense a lick there. And we only got our hands on Crede because he could never stay healthy. And in 2009 he only played 90 games, which was the last year he played in the big leagues at 31 years old. So those two don't really qualify as examples of potential replacements, position scarcity, IMO.

[tobi0040]

Your 25% LHP is roughly accurate, in terms of total PA against.

 

But how valuable is a .676 OPS bench/pinch hit option vs RHP? 75% of the time, he will have negative value in this role.

 

Not to mention, who are you going to bench 25% of the time for Plouffe vs LHP? Mauer at 1B? Arcia in RF? Not particularly realistic/desirable... maybe if we're stuck with Parmelee in LF, but then our goal shouldn't be to find/keep a decent sub for Parmelee -- it should be to replace him with a better starter.

 

Still think we will be way better off trading Plouffe to a team that needs a 3B patch as soon as Sano is up.

 

Arcia's OPS against lefties is .454 this year. So he is a potential candidate.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Well, we moved Cuddy off 3B because he could not play defense a lick there. And we only got our hands on Crede because he could never stay healthy. And in 2009 he only played 90 games, which was the last year he played in the big leagues at 31 years old. So those two don't really qualify as examples of potential replacements, position scarcity, IMO.

 

I was just pointing out it's wasn't quite an 8-year dry spell.

 

Actually, since Plouffe was handed the position in 2012, it was really only 7 seasons between him and Koskie. And between Cuddy, Crede, Punto, and Valencia, the Twins got cheap Plouffe-like production at the position at least 5 of those 7 seasons.

 

Twins combined 3B MLB OPS rank

2005: 21

2006: 26

2007: 30

2008: 21

2009: 22

2010: 24

2011: 21

2012: 15

2013: 23

2014: 20

 

Hate to say it, but Plouffe's 2012 HR binge still looks like the outlier here, not Plouffe overall.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Arcia's OPS against lefties is .454 this year. So he is a potential candidate.

 

If Arcia keeps hitting like he has in MLB 2013-2014, he will be another candidate for total replacement, not part-time augmentation.

[tobi0040]

If Arcia keeps hitting like he has in MLB 2013-2014, he will be another candidate for total replacement, not part-time augmentation.

 

Arcia's career OPS against righties is .773. Looks like at a floor of a platoon player, especially if you can get that .773 OPS 75% of the time.

 

In two years we should have Buxton, Sano, Mauer, and likely at least two from the Hicks, Rosario, camp playing every day. As well as an everyday catcher. So the roster should be flexible enough for a guy like that.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Well, actually, Escobar is hitting as well as Plouffe and is a much better fielder at 3B. When Santana comes back where does he play? If he is your starting SS, that puts Escobar on the bench.

If Plouffe were traded, I don't think the Twins would notice his absence. The problem is, what could you get in return that would be worth having? Can Polanco play 3B?

 

He's not actually. Plouffe has a slightly higher OPS. The other conern about Escobar is his ability to play every day. I like Escobar a lot better up the middle personally. A 3 man tandem of Santana, Dozier, and Escobar is going to do a good job scoring and defending runs. Move Escobar to 3B, and then you have a big hole up the middle and are in deeper trouble if Santana turns back into a pumpkin. I think the best solution here is to keep Plouffe another year.

 

The Twins can (and should) go year to year with him right now. He's not going to yield a good prospect at the deadline, he's got a decent chance of improving, and he's not dragging down the team. If he improves, he's going to be worth a lot more next season, and the Twins will also have seen Sano play an entire year against tougher pitching.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Arcia's career OPS against righties is .773. Looks like at a floor of a platoon player, especially if you can get that .773 OPS 75% of the time.

 

In two years we should have Buxton, Sano, Mauer, and likely at least two from the Hicks, Rosario, camp playing every day. As well as an everyday catcher. So the roster should be flexible enough for a guy like that.

 

Two years from now, Plouffe will be just over a season away from free agency (hits FA after 2017 season), and probably commanding $5+ mil in his final arb seasons.

 

Plouffe has some value as a 3B. He has less value as a more expensive short-side platoon corner OF. I didn't think that would be a controversial statement!

[gmarais66]

Brock, a lot of that has to do with defense. Plouffe already has 1.6 WAR on the year, and I'm expecting a big second half from him (if he stays healthy). Across the board he is a better player this year. He is hitting balls hard and playing solid defense. His patience at the plate is getting better too. When you look at advanced metrics for him something has to give. He is posting career high LD%, career low HR/FB and IF/FB (significantly less than previously in the worst kind of contact); all the while he has maintained a similar BaBIP and AVG. These will go up along with the number of HR's he hits. We might be having a very different discussion in 2 months.

 

Why is everyone so convinced Sano is going to push him off the position? I'm not. Sano is will probably be great, but he has contact issue and might get too big for the position. Have we all forgotten Sano's faults? He wouldn't be the first uber prospect to fail. If you're the Twins you don't put all your eggs in the Sano basket. He is going to play the whole season in AA/AAA next year unless he puts up a 1.000 OPS for a half the season. When that happens you worry about moving a solid player. There is only a dozen guys in MLB that are better at 3b. Plouffe is being sold very short on this thread. I hope my predictions come true and he has a big second half.

 

Since May 1, Plouffe is hitting .218/.272/.379. That doesn't instill much confidence that he's going to have a big second half of the season...