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Twins Failed 2B & Hitting Philosophy Has Failed Martin


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This my first TD blog, so, we'll see how it goes. From '13-'18, Dozier played very good 2B even when he was hurt. The "keystone" is a valuable up the middle position where range & turning a slick DP should be prerequisite for a 2Bman. But since '19, Twins philosophy is that they can hide defensive challenged players at 2B. Twins started the '19 season with Schoop but later went with Arraez. Don't get me wrong I love Arraez as a hitter but a 2Bman he was sub-par. 

It's very difficult to judge defense even with OAA & DRS, but double plays are something more straightforward. Here below I have listed where the Twins rated each year since '19.

Season '26-  Keaschal & company  #23         ,68 DP/ games

Season '25-  Clemens & Keaschal  #30                                   Correa played more than half the season at SS

Season '24-  Julien primary            #30         .45 DP/ game     Correa at SS

Season  '23-  Julien primary           #30                                      Correa at SS

Season  '22-  hurt Polanco              #22         .73 DP/ game

Season  '21-  Polanco                       #09         

Season  '20-  Arraez                        #26         .63 DP/ game

Season  '19-  Schoop/ Arraez          #18

DPs are a pitchers best friend, where are they for the Twins? 2B is a lesser prime position, & IMO, Twins should be in the top 10 to really compete. Twins tried to hide Arraez, Julien & Keaschal for years until they could no longer fool the fanbase. Twins' lackadaisical attitude on defense especially at 2B is alarming & has cost us a lot of games. Who was our best choice at 2B, the last few years? It was Austin Martin. After experimenting with Martin's hitting & at SS, in '23 they left him alone & played him mainly at 2B. He looked pretty good for his 1st real look there, In '24 they threw him in the MLB OF. In 24 & '25 he didn't look bad his few times at 2B. If given regular playing time & proper coaching at 2B our 2B situation would be much better.

Now I'd like to discuss Martins hitting. With his early years in MN, they tried to make him into a slugger, that didn't work. He said enough & went back to his own swing. In MLB '24 he had 163 ABs against (RHPs) for a .313 OBP & 70 ABs against (LHPs) for a .326 OBP. He had more than 2X more ABs facing RHPs, with similar OBP & even slightly higher SLUG against RHPs. In MLB '25, he had 104 ABs against (RHPs) for a .361 OBP & 52 ABs against (LHPs) for a .404 OBP. Although he had less ABs he still had 2:1 RHP to LHP ratio. All his numbers were considerably higher & his SLUG & OBP was considerable higher with LHPs.  Until '26, he faced more than 2X RHPs than LHPs.

In '26, he blossomed having over .500 OBP until May when they decided to demote Wallner, then it fell off a cliff. I look at him now & he's a different hitter. What caused the decline? Could it be that he was playing fulltime? IMO, no because he played a lot while in the MiLB. Could it be facing more RHPs? Again, IMO, no, because until now, he has faced more RHPs & has done well. Martin is a good contact hitter that has good ABs, his slump is baffling. So, what is it? This is only my theory mind you. Baldelli learned to leave him alone, but Shelton & his coaching staff are new & with Wallner demoted, IMO they wanted Martin to hit with more power to compensate for Wallner's absence & again changed his hitting. My summation is that this tinkering with his swing has caused this funk. Instead of constantly trying to change Martin, they should better evaluate him & play him to his strengths not to their wants. Everyone would be happier.

19 Comments


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Blyleven2011

Posted

Something sure changed and I agree it was at the time wallner was demoted to AAA , Martin was off to a great start at hitting and playing left field , after wallner was sent down his hitting suffered while playing right field  …

could switching to playing another position disrupt a players focus , ABSOLUTELY …

Martin batting in the 330’s into May and average dropped a 100 points to the 230’s to finish the season , with his good eye and contact skills I don’t have the answers and yes I was all for Martin to be given a chance at second base but Rocco couldn’t see it  ….

this is just my two cents worth …

thanks for the article 

Andy MacPhail

Posted

19 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

Something sure changed and I agree it was at the time wallner was demoted to AAA , Martin was off to a great start at hitting and playing left field , after wallner was sent down his hitting suffered while playing right field  …

could switching to playing another position disrupt a players focus , ABSOLUTELY …

Martin batting in the 330’s into May and average dropped a 100 points to the 230’s to finish the season , with his good eye and contact skills I don’t have the answers and yes I was all for Martin to be given a chance at second base but Rocco couldn’t see it  ….

this is just my two cents worth …

thanks for the article 

Another possible reason that I forgot is, injury. His return from injury, he looked worse, IMO, might have something there especially now. But I doubt it's the main reason. 

The 3 last season not playing Martin at 2B are lost, I still think Martin is the better player there & maybe he could play there some if the Twins wake up & they trade Lewis next season. But when Houston comes up; the position is Culpepper's.

MeleMouth

Posted

The Jays were happy to dangle Martin because they realized quickly that his rep was better than his ability to play major league ball. Same with SWR.

Andy MacPhail

Posted

 Martin did not sign with the Indians as a 37th-round pick out of high school in 2017, instead choosing to honor his commitment to Vanderbilt. He led NCAA Division I in runs (87) and the Southeastern Conference in batting average (.392) and on-base percentage (.486) as a sophomore, helping the Commodores win their College World Series championship and setting himself as a potential No. 1 overall pick for 2020.

Scouts felt that Martin was the top hitter in his Draft class. He has an outstanding feel for the barrel and effortlessly makes hard contact with a short, quick right-handed stroke that quickly and efficiently gets into the strike zone. He controls the zone very well and uses the entire field, showing no weaknesses at the plate. 

Martin was scouted as a contact hitter but after he hit several clutch HRs in the College World Series to help Vanderbilt to win their CWS championship. TOR thought they could unlock a hidden power inside Martin. While he didn't have arm to play 3B in pro ball & because of his INF qualities they'd try him at SS, When they couldn't, maybe they thought their highly rated prospect was dispensable. MN also bought into this idea of transforming him into a power hitting SS superstar. Martin's scouting report of fast reacting, quick feet, soft hands & below average arm, screams out to me, 2B, yet he hasn't gotten the coaching & playing time there.

(potential) Power is the main factor in rating prospects. If big prospect A has a high Power rating & below average in everything else, he'll still have a high prospect rating. Yet if small prospect B who rates high in every category except Power & is below average in Power, he gets a low rating. IMO, a prospect who has high potential power, there is no guarantee that this prospect can develop that power or that he can even hit in the MLB. The odds that prospect B (who is developed properly) to make the MLB is much greater than prospect A. 

Pro stats reward players who hit HRs. Many believe that a .700 OPS is the break off point to be a good player without even considering their defense. It's easy for a poor fielding slugger to hit .700 OPS while a good fielding contact hitter has to have a crazy OBP to qualify. These stats analysts have swayed social media & many teams that HRs are everything. Social media propagates these stats & fans eat it up. MIL has been criticized for years for not hitting HRs, yet they keep on winning. MIL has found the secret. They draft cheap underrated prospect Bs, develop & manage them properly, while avoiding expensive sluggers. IMO, if a team like MIL had Martin in their org., he could be an all-star 2Bman (where MN has been weak for years) now. Again, the type of hitter, that Martin is. it's hard for me to blame him for his crazy slump.

Eris

Posted

On 9/27/2026 at 3:08 PM, Andy MacPhail said:

Many believe that a .700 OPS is the break off point to be a good player without even considering their defense. It's easy for a poor fielding slugger to hit .700 OPS while a good fielding contact hitter has to have a crazy OBP to qualify.

This description reminds me of Steven Kwan. Career OPS of about 0.740, yet he has put up 18.7 fWAR in 5 years with the Guardians. Kwan was a 5th round draft choice primarily because he had no power. 
 

It does seem strange that the Twins did not give Martin a better shot at 2B. He played about 15 games there over the course of the 2024 and 2025 seasons. 

mluebker

Posted

On 9/27/2026 at 1:08 PM, Andy MacPhail said:

(potential) Power is the main factor in rating prospects.

Or a hundred-mile-an-hour fastball. I wonder how many solid, all-around ballplayers never make it in MLB because today’s mindset tries to turn what made them look good in college into one dimensional power hitters or power pitchers. Seems like there’s little room for anything else these days. If Rod Carew and Jim Kaat were on their way up now, I have to wonder whether either of them would ever make the Twins’ roster.

Andy MacPhail

Posted

“They are perfectly fine with being the type of player that they are,” Vogelbach said, “and being the best at what they do."

Quote from MIL hitting coach. Doesn't surprise me.

laloesch

Posted

On 9/26/2026 at 7:36 PM, MeleMouth said:

The Jays were happy to dangle Martin because they realized quickly that his rep was better than his ability to play major league ball. Same with SWR.

THIS.  I was never impressed with either player to be honest.  SWR had his moments in 2024 & 2025.  Martin had his moments in 2025, but even in that season his OPS was .740, and in 2024 & 2026 he dipped sub .700.  His WAR has never been more than 0.7.  I just don't see the fascination with him. 

Linus

Posted

Appreciate the effort but I am going to be seeing the ampersand in my sleep. Regarding Martin, he’s just not a MLB regular and may not even be a bench player.  It happens. 

Andy MacPhail

Posted

On 10/19/2026 at 1:29 PM, laloesch said:

THIS.  I was never impressed with either player to be honest.  SWR had his moments in 2024 & 2025.  Martin had his moments in 2025, but even in that season his OPS was .740, and in 2024 & 2026 he dipped sub .700.  His WAR has never been more than 0.7.  I just don't see the fascination with him. 

I'm not fascinated with Martin. My point isn't to glorify him. The point in my 2 blogs is to point out the faulty mindset where Martin has been a victim. To try to open closed minds to see slugging stats like OPS are not the gold standard to judge players. That players like Martin have strong assets that can improve this team & those assets should be developed, not try to transform that player into someone he is not. 

Let me give you a scenario, Player A hits 2 HRs off player RPs in a 11-0 blowout, his OPS goes crazy. The next game Player B walks, steals 2nd, then 3rd & scores barely on a pass ball. Player A flubs on a ball hit to him, the opponent scores, which ties the game. In the 9th inning, Player B hits a walk off single going the other way. Player B's OPS barely moved the needle. Player B's defense saves runs, Player A's is below par. It's easy to hit a bunch of HRs in low leverage, It's not easy to advance & hit in high leverage, This scenario plays out throughout the season Player A has a hefty OPS, Player B's OPS hovers a little over .700. By today's standard, Player A is lauded & Player B is ignored. But which player is more impactful?

I don't pay attention to all the hype on social media, that glorifies these HR bias stats & projections. I prefer to observe for myself & form my own opinion. I'm also open to debate, I can't say I'm always right. I'm sick & tired to see my team look good on paper & have good projections but always fall short at the end. I ask you Laloesch, & those like you, don't skip over what is written & to be open when you read what all have been written & that there is a world outside of OPS to judge our players & be finally successful as a team. Like MIL.

laloesch

Posted

5 hours ago, Andy MacPhail said:

I'm not fascinated with Martin. My point isn't to glorify him. The point in my 2 blogs is to point out the faulty mindset where Martin has been a victim. To try to open closed minds to see slugging stats like OPS are not the gold standard to judge players. That players like Martin have strong assets that can improve this team & those assets should be developed, not try to transform that player into someone he is not. 

Let me give you a scenario, Player A hits 2 HRs off player RPs in a 11-0 blowout, his OPS goes crazy. The next game Player B walks, steals 2nd, then 3rd & scores barely on a pass ball. Player A flubs on a ball hit to him, the opponent scores, which ties the game. In the 9th inning, Player B hits a walk off single going the other way. Player B's OPS barely moved the needle. Player B's defense saves runs, Player A's is below par. It's easy to hit a bunch of HRs in low leverage, It's not easy to advance & hit in high leverage, This scenario plays out throughout the season Player A has a hefty OPS, Player B's OPS hovers a little over .700. By today's standard, Player A is lauded & Player B is ignored. But which player is more impactful?

I don't pay attention to all the hype on social media, that glorifies these HR bias stats & projections. I prefer to observe for myself & form my own opinion. I'm also open to debate, I can't say I'm always right. I'm sick & tired to see my team look good on paper & have good projections but always fall short at the end. I ask you Laloesch, & those like you, don't skip over what is written & to be open when you read what all have been written & that there is a world outside of OPS to judge our players & be finally successful as a team. Like MIL.

Here's the problem, baseball analytics WIDELY consider OPS THE gold standard on judging a hitter.  Whether or not a game is a blowout is irrelevant to the value of OPS.  OPS is the rate at which a player gets on base, be it a hit, walk, hit by a pitch + their slugging percentage (hit for power). If a player has a lousy OPS that generally means they just aren't that good of a hitter and or don't have any power.  While I agree it shouldn't be the only metric to judge a hitter, it does tell a story about the player if their OPS is mediocre.  

We can debate the threshold of good vs. mediocre for any given position, but the fact is that Martin's OPS is.....not good.  For an outfielder he should be around .750-.800.  His career average is .680 and this season he slumped to .655.  His slugging percentage is not good obviously.  Simply put, Martin has no power, that fact is undeniable.  Here are some examples of other Twin's hitters and the contrast.

Buxton .829, Jeffers .814, Larnach .788, Keaschall .781, Clemens .758, Jackson .748, Bell .738, Lee .728, Lewis, .667, Kreidler .665, Wallner. 551 (yikes!). 

The rest of your post that drifts into homeruns, I get it that homeruns can be a deceiving stat and pad OPS and SLG percentages, but he's hit 5 over the course of 3 seasons with the Twins, that's not good enough for an outfielder.  We can cherry pick and debate the value of different analytic offensive stats or the value of defense offsetting a player's offensive deficiencies, but the fact remains that the Twins have better options in the outfield then Martin.  

 

JADBP

Posted

On 10/21/2026 at 7:05 AM, Andy MacPhail said:

I'm not fascinated with Martin. My point isn't to glorify him. The point in my 2 blogs is to point out the faulty mindset where Martin has been a victim. To try to open closed minds to see slugging stats like OPS are not the gold standard to judge players. That players like Martin have strong assets that can improve this team & those assets should be developed, not try to transform that player into someone he is not. 

Let me give you a scenario, Player A hits 2 HRs off player RPs in a 11-0 blowout, his OPS goes crazy. The next game Player B walks, steals 2nd, then 3rd & scores barely on a pass ball. Player A flubs on a ball hit to him, the opponent scores, which ties the game. In the 9th inning, Player B hits a walk off single going the other way. Player B's OPS barely moved the needle. Player B's defense saves runs, Player A's is below par. It's easy to hit a bunch of HRs in low leverage, It's not easy to advance & hit in high leverage, This scenario plays out throughout the season Player A has a hefty OPS, Player B's OPS hovers a little over .700. By today's standard, Player A is lauded & Player B is ignored. But which player is more impactful?

I don't pay attention to all the hype on social media, that glorifies these HR bias stats & projections. I prefer to observe for myself & form my own opinion. I'm also open to debate, I can't say I'm always right. I'm sick & tired to see my team look good on paper & have good projections but always fall short at the end. I ask you Laloesch, & those like you, don't skip over what is written & to be open when you read what all have been written & that there is a world outside of OPS to judge our players & be finally successful as a team. Like MIL.

No… the prob here is that teams believe hitting HRs puts more fans in seats than winning!!!!

ashbury

Posted

On 10/21/2026 at 7:05 AM, Andy MacPhail said:

To try to open closed minds to see slugging stats like OPS are not the gold standard to judge players. 

Using a player who batted .228 and scored 42 runs to debunk OPS wouldn't be my first choice.

Andy MacPhail

Posted

2 hours ago, ashbury said:

Using a player who batted .228 and scored 42 runs to debunk OPS wouldn't be my first choice.

Thank you for sharing, but my focus wasn't using Martin to debunk OPS. My point was the Twins' failed philosophies & the organization efforts to conform players into them. I could have used others, but I felt Martin was a better victim. This whole process began trying figure out why such a good contact hitter with good ABs ending up less than expected. I try to look beyond stats & this is where the road led me.

ashbury

Posted

14 hours ago, Andy MacPhail said:

Thank you for sharing, but my focus wasn't using Martin to debunk OPS. 

You said it was.  The fuller context of the part I responded to:

Quote

The point in my 2 blogs is to point out the faulty mindset where Martin has been a victim. To try to open closed minds to see slugging stats like OPS are not the gold standard to judge players. 

If the parallel structure wasn't intended to connect the two, you can understand why I thought so.

Andy MacPhail

Posted

On 10/21/2026 at 2:46 PM, laloesch said:

Here's the problem, baseball analytics WIDELY consider OPS THE gold standard on judging a hitter.  Whether or not a game is a blowout is irrelevant to the value of OPS.  OPS is the rate at which a player gets on base, be it a hit, walk, hit by a pitch + their slugging percentage (hit for power). If a player has a lousy OPS that generally means they just aren't that good of a hitter and or don't have any power.  While I agree it shouldn't be the only metric to judge a hitter, it does tell a story about the player if their OPS is mediocre.  

We can debate the threshold of good vs. mediocre for any given position, but the fact is that Martin's OPS is.....not good.  For an outfielder he should be around .750-.800.  His career average is .680 and this season he slumped to .655.  His slugging percentage is not good obviously.  Simply put, Martin has no power, that fact is undeniable.  Here are some examples of other Twin's hitters and the contrast.

Buxton .829, Jeffers .814, Larnach .788, Keaschall .781, Clemens .758, Jackson .748, Bell .738, Lee .728, Lewis, .667, Kreidler .665, Wallner. 551 (yikes!). 

The rest of your post that drifts into homeruns, I get it that homeruns can be a deceiving stat and pad OPS and SLG percentages, but he's hit 5 over the course of 3 seasons with the Twins, that's not good enough for an outfielder.  We can cherry pick and debate the value of different analytic offensive stats or the value of defense offsetting a player's offensive deficiencies, but the fact remains that the Twins have better options in the outfield then Martin.  

Thank you so much for your debate. I've read your post several times. I think we agree more than we disagree, I've use OPS, WAR & Prospect Rating, when I look into players. because it's a quick & easy way to do so. As far as I know we don't have good stats to really gage players worth.  Let me say it a different way. my agenda is to get people to think outside the box. Inside the box thinking, OPS, WAR & Prospect Rating, where HRS impact more than anything, are the gold standard, The game plan is simple, hit as many & as far HRs as you can. Yet this mindset we see a team like LAA who look good on paper but never made the postseason. I see the Twins in the same mind set, look good on paper but fall short. Thinking inside the box is not getting the job done. 

Hitting HRs is nice, look great on paper & sexy but can you not hit HRs & still win? That's blasphemy! no, that's outside the box thinking Baseball is a team sport, my focus is, that every player needs to play proficiently his position (not bat dictate it), have players get on base, steal bases, have players hit them in, have good pitching, evaluate the strength of each players & develop those strengths & fundamentals, using this outside the box mind set, make good trades, manage accordingly, you can win without hitting HRs. Many pundits say MIL can't win because they don't hit HRs*, yet they keep winning! They think outside the box & we need to do the same. It's not easy & will take time.

Twins saw the need to better their baserunning but didn't have the runners. I like that they changed their strategy & not try to unlock Jenkin's potential power before developing his hitting. They changed around the INF to make it much better defensively, they still need to make changes to their in the box approach. I agree with you that Martin shouldn't play the OF, that isn't his position, I've stated as much. But if they develop him according to his strengths, as I've stated before, he'll be a great asset w/o hitting a ton of HRs. Not being satisfied with that & changing his swing to raise his OPS made him worse.

* Yes, I know MIL has hit a lot of HRs this post season, IMO, it wasn't the gameplan but from adrenaline & working the count to get pitches to hit. Not the norm.

 

 

 

Andy MacPhail

Posted

1 hour ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

S-tier username.

Thank you, It's about time to come clean. I'm not really Andy MacPhail. I have many favorite Twins but Twins Daily gives us the opportunity to be online GMs. I have always admired Andy for bringing 2 WSCs to MN. My intention is to honor him but my opinions aren't necessarily his.

ashbury

Posted

2 hours ago, Andy MacPhail said:

Thank you, It's about time to come clean. I'm not really Andy MacPhail. 

surprised_pikachu.gif.19f7f6f9ac154f7315cd9c4bef5ed1b4.gif

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