I doubt they get to triple digits on payroll. 

1 hour ago, Reptevia said:

I doubt they get to triple digits on payroll. 

1 hour ago, Reptevia said:

I doubt they get to triple digits on payroll. 

I only have them hitting triple digits as a result of paying Correa.  The gamble is that enough rookies show enough promise to be a .500 team next year if they tank to low the Twins could sell off at the trade deadline.  
I think if their payroll drops below 80 million the union will say something as will the owners paying into revenue sharing.  

My add to this: Boston really wants Ryan. I hold him and pivot to selling them Lopez as payroll relief, once he is proven healthy and effective in the spring. He'd likely welcome being moved to a playoff caliber team at this stage of his career instead of staying through a total rebuild and an uncertain ownership situation. He might bring back a young pitcher and a MLB ready hitter. That move alone gets the Twins payroll into the mid-upper 80s range with some breathing room to look for 1B and bullpen help.

I like re-signing Vazquez for $3; he's good behind the plate. Just don't expect any offense. He's like Austin Hedges. I wouldn't waste fifteen dollars on Michael Tonkin. Yikes. Signing Carlos Santana for first base is like admitting "we have no idea how to develop talent." But he would be a better defender than anyone they have now. Your assembly is not a winning team. Is this Falvey's "next big push?" 

You are waaaay under estimating what it would take to sign Ryan. Ryan will get way more than Lopez on the open market. 

13 minutes ago, saviking said:

You are waaaay under estimating what it would take to sign Ryan. Ryan will get way more than Lopez on the open market. 

Same with Jeffers too. Ryan would get $25-30 million per year and Jeffers would get closer to $20 million if they were FAs this winter. 

Seems doubtful that a player would consider signing a team friendly contract with a dysfunctional program. Players will demand very high numbers or wait until free agency. Perhaps the organization gets their act together this offseason and provides a reason for a couple of guys to listen to offers. Best bet is that highest bidder gets a signature. Ryan would start by asking for 6/$140M. Jeffers is one year from free agency. I'm not sure what number he could command, but he will want to find out.

Back to the drawing board. We can wait until November to see how the playoffs end before the rebuild is put into place.

After the year, Bailey Ober had in 2025, I'm not sure how many teams would be interested in acquiring him. I like the idea of extending Jeffers, and signing Vazquez to a one year deal. Theilbar and Couloumbe are names that are interesting as veteran bullpen arms. I would also look into acquiring former Twin Taylor Rogers or his brother Tyler Rogers. This model has the Twins signing a lot of former Twins in Theilbar, Coulombe, Vazquez, and Santana. I appreciate the write-up.

On 10/14/2025 at 2:56 PM, saviking said:

You are waaaay under estimating what it would take to sign Ryan. Ryan will get way more than Lopez on the open market. 

Ryan has two years of arbitration and the offer was a 4 year deal to include two years of FA.  I figured around 60-64 million for the 4 season based on 20 million per season.  He might could get 25 million in FA. You could add 3 million per season to his total if you like. But I also took into account the Twins would want a discount.  I figured 4 million.  
 

What do you think Ryan will make over next 4 seasons?  

13 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Seems doubtful that a player would consider signing a team friendly contract with a dysfunctional program. Players will demand very high numbers or wait until free agency. Perhaps the organization gets their act together this offseason and provides a reason for a couple of guys to listen to offers. Best bet is that highest bidder gets a signature. Ryan would start by asking for 6/$140M. Jeffers is one year from free agency. I'm not sure what number he could command, but he will want to find out.

Back to the drawing board. We can wait until November to see how the playoffs end before the rebuild is put into place.

Ryan is not getting 6 years in FA.  He has 2 years till FA.  He will turn 32 the first year of his new. Contract.  He will likely get 3-4 years in FA.  A good guarantee now is a great idea for someone like him.  Arguing for what amount and if this contract should be 5 years instead of 4 is valid.

On 10/14/2025 at 8:49 AM, Mahoning said:

I like re-signing Vazquez for $3; he's good behind the plate. Just don't expect any offense. He's like Austin Hedges. I wouldn't waste fifteen dollars on Michael Tonkin. Yikes. Signing Carlos Santana for first base is like admitting "we have no idea how to develop talent." But he would be a better defender than anyone they have now. Your assembly is not a winning team. Is this Falvey's "next big push?" 

This is definitely a rebuilding year roster of players easy to jettison for sure.  We have lots of prospects coming up and we are on a budget so low cost ads.  My first attempt I had a better 1B and kept Ober and kept Larnarch .  These players I had to subtract to make the budget work.  

2 hours ago, Brandon said:

Ryan is not getting 6 years in FA.  He has 2 years till FA.  He will turn 32 the first year of his new. Contract.  He will likely get 3-4 years in FA.  A good guarantee now is a great idea for someone like him.  Arguing for what amount and if this contract should be 5 years instead of 4 is valid.

Clarification. Signing Ryan this offseason for 6 years would include the next two, so four years beyond his remaining arb time. That was my intent. There is almost zero chance Ryan signs after next season. When players get to their opportunity for free agency they almost always take it. The Twins can keep Ryan for two more years.

5 hours ago, Brandon said:

Ryan has two years of arbitration and the offer was a 4 year deal to include two years of FA.  I figured around 60-64 million for the 4 season based on 20 million per season.  He might could get 25 million in FA. You could add 3 million per season to his total if you like. But I also took into account the Twins would want a discount.  I figured 4 million.  
 

What do you think Ryan will make over next 4 seasons?  

Even if traded Ryan could just take the arbitration numbers and the become a free agent betting on himself. 

36 minutes ago, saviking said:

Even if traded Ryan could just take the arbitration numbers and the become a free agent betting on himself. 

There are similarities between the Boston acquisition of Crochet and how a team would approach a trade for Ryan. Maybe it is naive but there would probably be conversations with Ryan about his willingness to sign a long term contract with a team if traded. 

Taking a look at various contracts handed out to starting pitchers, it seems highly probable that there are a number of teams willing to put money into a guy like Ryan. Joe Ryan is a top 10 starting pitcher or if you are feeling grumpy a top 20 fellow. 

Some people have wondered if Joe Ryan will want to have more control of where he pitches, which is possible. That would complicate matters somewhat but there are some reasonable possibilities with teams in the AL and NL West if that is the case. Pretty sure the phone calls and texts will be busy in November and December. I'm hopeful of an early decision one way or the other.

The reality is this. Unless there are new owners, forget the ALCS or World Series.

On 10/16/2025 at 2:56 PM, Brandon said:

Ryan is not getting 6 years in FA.  He has 2 years till FA.  He will turn 32 the first year of his new. Contract.  He will likely get 3-4 years in FA.  A good guarantee now is a great idea for someone like him.  Arguing for what amount and if this contract should be 5 years instead of 4 is valid.

This is something we all need to remember; Ryan‘s age. He won’t be a free agent until he’s 32. Signing him now to overpay him during his last two years of arbitration might be a way to get him to sign a 4 to 5 year deal with the team at a $18-20 million average annual value. Of course none of that matters if he wants out, and he may. If that’s the case, trade him for some immediate hitting relief and keep Lopez to mentor the young pitchers. Ryan to Boston for Walter Abreu, Payton Tolles, and Tristan Casas. 

On 10/16/2025 at 7:13 AM, tony&rodney said:

Clarification. Signing Ryan this offseason for 6 years would include the next two, so four years beyond his remaining arb time. That was my intent. There is almost zero chance Ryan signs after next season. When players get to their opportunity for free agency they almost always take it. The Twins can keep Ryan for two more years.

You may be right.  But he is also one arm injury away from missing out on a big contract.  Maybe he signs a 4, or 5, deal.  Maybe he rides it out.  I can tell you that I’m not sure of what the ideal contract extension would be.  I for one would not go over 5 years.  4 is my comfort level.  It’s not like he has the best pure stuff.  If his stuff deteriorates as he ages, It could be a big loss of effectiveness.  

51 minutes ago, Brandon said:

You may be right.  But he is also one arm injury away from missing out on a big contract.  Maybe he signs a 4, or 5, deal.  Maybe he rides it out.  I can tell you that I’m not sure of what the ideal contract extension would be.  I for one would not go over 5 years.  4 is my comfort level.  It’s not like he has the best pure stuff.  If his stuff deteriorates as he ages, It could be a big loss of effectiveness.  

Let's face it - salaries in many fields are out of control and impossible for f'in old guys (FOG) to relate to even if one was an executive in the 1960s and early 1970s. Oh well, it's just money.

Interesting that you mention stuff. I always think of Joe Ryan as more of an old fashioned pitcher who controls most plate appearances with good pitches to the right locations. He doesn't really blow people away. Ryan has such an easy delivery I can see him pitching for nearly another decade. In a few ways Ryan reminds me of Bert Blyleven in terms of delivery and the ease with which they throw the ball. We shall see.