Looking at his numbers you can see that his ERA is higher then in years past.  Why is that and what has changed?  Looking at his traditional stat line you notice that he has given up more hits and twice as many walks compared to the last several years.  His strike out rate is the same.  And his homeruns per 9 innings is in line with his career average. 

Let’s dive deeper and look at more numbers.  He is giving up contact at similar rates.  His LD% is actually a full 1% lower than his career average.  His ground ball % is 7% higher than his career average and his flyball rate is down 3% from his career average. 

What I don’t know is if his stuff is less than years past things like fast fastball speed, spin rate on pitches resulting in movements.  What I can see is that it seems more ground ball hits are falling in than normal  Since the line drive % is down, I would think there is more luck / groundball hits going against him.  He is also walking twice as many hitters as he has in the past which is adding even more base runners.  And third.  This hasn’t been stated on here but with the bigger bases and more steals he has given up 7 stolen bases with no caught stealing.  Since 2020 3 was the most stolen bases against him in a season and no one has been caught against him this year. 

Theilbar’s effectiveness loss comes down to 3 things.  1.  More hits on the ground are getting through. 2.  Twice as many walks 3 base runners getting the jump on running to the next base.  1 of these is luck and the other two are tightening up on holding runners and throwing more strikes.  I do believe Theilbar can make a comeback and be good again next season but he has to tighten up his game. 

I would love to hear others thoughts and analysis on his season.  does anyone else think that a few teaks could have him being an effective middle reliever again?