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A Deeper Dive after 13 Games


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The top line is that the Twins are 9-4 and lead the AL Central by two games. They've outscored their opponents 58-34, the second-best run differential in the American League. 34 runs allowed is second-best in MLB while the 58 runs scored is 17th of 30 teams. Team batting stats are so-so at best--23rd in team BA and OPS, 17th in runs scored, 15 (T) in homers, 20th in walks and seventh (worst) in strikeouts. The pitching stats make up for the poor offense and then some: second in ERA, second in least walks, first in strikeouts, first in WHIP and a middling 19th in homers allowed. The defense has been very good--a few sparkling plays and very few forced or unforced errors. They have been charged with four errors total, about what the White Sox might do for a three-game series. 

Now for some thoughts on individuals:

Pablo Lopez--Dare I say 'ace"? Each start seems to be better. After having the first four hitters reach, with two in and two in scoring position for his last outing, Lopez got out of that inning without further damage and set down a total of 23 straight batters. He's going deep in games, striking guys out and making adjustments as the games develop. What's not to like? Yeah, he got traded for a guy hitting .500.

Sonny Gray--Two of his three starts were "meh", except he managed to keep the other guys from scoring. In between, he had a great start, fanning 13, and allowing only one run. The overall results are very good. He uses his entire array of pitches and gets outs, even when he doesn't have his best stuff.

Joe Ryan--In another year, we'd be raving at his effectiveness. He is 3-0 with an ERA below 3. Ryan seems to have picked up velocity and is using his secondary stuff effectively.

Jhoan Duran--Three for four in saves and the Twins won the game where he had a blown save. He allowed home runs in his last two outings, but mostly hitters don't have much chance against him. 

Donovan Solano--He's stepped in at first base for Joey Gallo and all he's done is hit, albeit without much power. Solano is hitting .342 with an OPS of .811 in 41 plate appearances. Remember when he was 2-25 in spring training? Neither do I.

Trevor Larnach--After being far and away the Twins' best offensive threat in the first week of the season, Larnach has cooled off substantially. His numbers are now a .260 batting average, .716 OPS, with only two extra-base hits. Larnach leads the club in strikeouts (19) and IMHO has been victimized a bit by sketchy called third strikes. He also leads the club in walks. I would expect some good things from Trevor in the coming week or so. He's due to bust out again. 

Christian Vazquez--He has been very effective as a hitter in the bottom of the order. Batting average is currently .379 with an OPS of .954. The offense is a bonus added on to his solid work behind the plate. The catchers probably deserve some credit for the outstanding work of the pitching staff. 

Jose Miranda--The results haven't been great or even okay for Miranda so far. Miranda has started all but one game at third base (DHed in that game) and performed satisfactorily in the field, but so far the hitting has been a disappointment. He's hitting just .212 with 5 RBI and only one extra-base hit (a double). The OPS stands at .512, with five walks and nine strikeouts. Miranda has too good of a hitting pedigree for his struggles to continue much longer.

Nick Gordon--Coming off last year's success for Gordon, many thought he deserved a regular role. Injuries have provided Gordon with regular at-bats, but so far the results aren't there. The batting average stands at .103 with a .253 OPS. Gordon has hit in tough luck and didn't strike out until his 32nd plate appearance, but if more players get healthy, Nick might see a lot of bench time. Gordon has played second base and left field defensively and done a nice job, especially at second, despite not having a good defensive reputation. 

The first 13 games have been very satisfying to this lifelong Twins fan. The pitching has been all that could be expected and more. They've managed a couple of late-game wins and looked like a solid defensive club. Certainly, the pitching will regress to the mean a bit and there will be some tough losses in the course of the long season. The club has managed well despite a lot of early-season injuries. It's my hope (and probably all Twins fans) that the injuries aren't as overwhelming as in the previous years and that this club can continue to do well. It should be fun!

8 Comments


Recommended Comments

jkcarew

Posted

I like the summary. And, yes, some early-season small samples are making some guys look better than they probably are, and some worse than they probably are.

Jeffers, Solano, Vasquez...all with unsustainably high BABiP. (Not that there aren't other encouraging things burried in their numbers. There are.)

Gordon with a ridiculously GOOD K-rate (very low)...but a horrific BABiP. He's putting almost every ball into play...and almost every one is resulting in an out. Miranda, also with good-ish BB and K rates...but low BABiP.

RpR

Posted

31 minutes ago, jkcarew said:

Gordon with a ridiculously GOOD K-rate (very low)...but a horrific BABiP. He's putting almost every ball into play...and almost every one is resulting in an out.

Maybe would trade him to the Japanese team for La Tortuga.

Rosterman

Posted

Best catching in baseball? Still hasn't been challenged in a running game. Because the pitchers aren't putting guys on base.

Yes, the hitting could be better. Solano is basically an older version of Arraez at first, but saving the Twins in that respect. We see there is no depth until Kirilloff challenges a returning Gallo.

Kepler, Polanco return will make the team better, one hopes? If anything, the Twins have allowed folks like Castro and Gordon and Taylor to get at bats and show they can play in a pinch, although we don't really want them as regulars. Farmer will be interesting to see when he comes back.

The name of the game is pitching and what the Twins do with pending free agents Gray, Mahle and Madea when the time comes. Will Varland, Ober and others come thru with limited appearances? Do the Twins break the bank and offer any of Gray or Mahle a bigger contract to hang around?

Good exciting baseball. Dynamite starts from the rotation. Overall decent usage of the bullpen, as we see the, um, hesitancy of Rocco to use Pagan or Sands unless really needed, and the hopeful gaining a solid footing in the pen of Alcala and Moran.

Duran will give up homers if his throws meet a bat. He has to stay comfortable with winning that challenge. A young super closer in action.

Minny505

Posted

Lopez, Gray, and Ryan have been the story so far. If this is the real version of each of them for the season, the Twins are going to win a lot of games...and possibly even some playoff games🙈

 

MGM4706

Posted

Good review but you missed a couple issues. Kepler is a big one. The new shift rules haven't produced the better results for Kepler. We have to get more production from RF. Pitching has been great but on the 2nd and 3rd time through reality is setting in. We are good with Lopez, Gray and Ryan. After that concerns have popped up. Maeda's arm weakness is a major set-back. Hope we don't play that out too long. Let him rehab in St. Paul. Ober probably needs to be up sooner than later.

JD-TWINS

Posted

On 4/15/2023 at 11:25 AM, Rosterman said:

Best catching in baseball? Still hasn't been challenged in a running game. Because the pitchers aren't putting guys on base.

Yes, the hitting could be better. Solano is basically an older version of Arraez at first, but saving the Twins in that respect. We see there is no depth until Kirilloff challenges a returning Gallo.

Kepler, Polanco return will make the team better, one hopes? If anything, the Twins have allowed folks like Castro and Gordon and Taylor to get at bats and show they can play in a pinch, although we don't really want them as regulars. Farmer will be interesting to see when he comes back.

The name of the game is pitching and what the Twins do with pending free agents Gray, Mahle and Madea when the time comes. Will Varland, Ober and others come thru with limited appearances? Do the Twins break the bank and offer any of Gray or Mahle a bigger contract to hang around?

Good exciting baseball. Dynamite starts from the rotation. Overall decent usage of the bullpen, as we see the, um, hesitancy of Rocco to use Pagan or Sands unless really needed, and the hopeful gaining a solid footing in the pen of Alcala and Moran.

Duran will give up homers if his throws meet a bat. He has to stay comfortable with winning that challenge. A young super closer in action.

Since this comment was written we’ve extended López through ‘27. Great move & nice deal for all!

Mahle is mediocre & I watched him for 3.5 years here in Cinti…….thought the same of his mental make-up when he was here. Decent stuff - no guts - tries to strike everyone out “just off the edge” & walks guys - gets behind - throws too many pitches - gives up homers.

Ryan will be around to extend next year.

I would offer Gray an $8-$10 per year raise. Too much money but with that amount we keep the term to only 2 years. Get it done ASAP! Good for both sides.

Fatbat

Posted

Can we DFA Pagan yet and bring up Ober for the long term?

Danchat

Posted

On 4/18/2023 at 11:36 AM, JD-TWINS said:

Mahle is mediocre & I watched him for 3.5 years here in Cinti…….thought the same of his mental make-up when he was here. Decent stuff - no guts - tries to strike everyone out “just off the edge” & walks guys - gets behind - throws too many pitches - gives up homers.

Sounds like the spitting image of Jake Odorizzi - gets the Ks, but throws too many pitches and is usually 'good enough' but never takes the next step.

On 4/18/2023 at 11:36 AM, JD-TWINS said:

I would offer Gray an $8-$10 per year raise. Too much money but with that amount we keep the term to only 2 years. Get it done ASAP! Good for both sides.

Yeah, I'd be fine not paying a bunch for Gray, with the likes of Varland/Ober/SWR in the wings. 

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