I like your list. I have high hopes for Martin too. But he didn't tear his ACL, he only sprained it. Which is bad enough. Hopefully they'll take care of it soon & he won't need TJ surgery

Good list and you are probably right.

I'm going with Alex Kirilloff and Edouard Julien.

I am a pretty big believer in Larnach and Kirilloff.  
 

Crossing my fingers and toes for Bailey Ober. I like pitchers with a little something funky in their stuff. 

Larnach!  I would like to say Julien......but....... even with injuries and a hot start in the minors, they won't/can't bring him up until thy get past the date where he gains a year on free agency.  (end of April?)

You have hit on five guys with a lot of reasons to root for them.  I think the most likely candidates are Ober and Larnach.   Trevor Larnach has intermittently looked good at the MLB level after being wildly successful during his full seasons in the minors.  Now that he’s healthy it seems like he is poised for more success. Ober, who is my number one candidate for a breakout, may start at St. Paul, but I think the chances of all five starters ahead of him being healthy and effective are very slim, so he will get plenty of opportunities to shine.  I think he will get 20+ starts with the Twins this year and will have a solid (3.00-3.50) ERA as well.  

By the way, I’m going to hope for all five of your candidates to breakout!  Wouldn’t that be something!

My quandary is 2 part:

1] How do I classify a player as being a BREAKOUT CANDIDATE? By that I mean, can a rookie be a breakout candidate, or are they just a rookie? And what about someone who has actually looked really good, even in SSS, but raises his game? Heck, Miranda could crank 30+ doubles a d 25 HR and would he still qualify as a breakout performer after a really nice rookie campaign?

2] And if we include rookies, what if Varland looks good in 10-12 GS, for example. Again is he a rookie who would be stil be a breakout candidate in 2024 and a potential full season? And that's just one example. 

The heck with it, I guess it's up to interpretation so in no particular order, here goes:

1] ALCALA: He's flashed here and there and then really put it together at the end of 2021. He had a nice 2022 ST and was good his first couple of appearances before his elbow acted up. Right now he's the 4th RH behind Duran, Lopez, and Jax. But he's going to give the Twins 4 high octane RH at the end of the pen.

2] MORAN: He's going to have to keep his BB numbers "acceptable", but I love this kid. While he's awesome against RH hitters, he's still good against LH as well. Experience is only going to make him better as the season goes along. I think he'll be solid the first half and raise his game the second half.

3] KIRILLOFF and LARNACH: I'm cheating a bit here because they are almost the same ballplayer in the exact same situation, with one the better overall OF and one destined to primarily play 1B going forward. BOTH are 1st round picks, highly regarded, with bat, power, decent OB ability, and potentially solid against LHP. And BOTH have flashed at the ML level when not hurt. Larnach is going to be one of the starting corner OF in 2024...if not before...and get serious run in 2023 as an OF/DH. Things are going to get really crowded really soon in the OF, but that's a good thing. Soreness, but not pain, indicates that Kirilloff just might be ready to fulfill all his talent and potential. To get his stroke working, and to achieve that "confidence" level in his wrist that it's OK to let it rip might take a few weeks in AAA. No problem. He's going to lay claim to being the primary 1B by June at the latest.

4] JULIEN: He's just going to be too good to keep down. Even with good health, every team is going to roll through more than 13 position players on a season. He's going to force his way in to the lineup on a regular basis pretty quickly as a 1B/2B/DH, probably at the top of the order. He's going to "Arraez" himself...funny how that's becoming almost an adjective...and provide a real spark.

5] OBER: I'm really reluctant to place Ober on this list because he was really good in 2021, was just as good, if not better, when able to pitch early and late in 2022. His numbers so far equate to a really good full year over 2 seasons, even with some IP caveats. But I include him here due to IP restrictions in 2021 and the time missed in 2022. I believe in his stuff and the changes in his routine and delivery. With rotation depth I don't know if he starts 18 games or 25. And they might still monitor his IP somewhat, but I think he establishes himself once and for all as a quality middle of the rotation starter. He's going to average at least 5 innings and throw 120 IP over 20+ starts.

On 3/23/2023 at 3:44 PM, Doctor Gast said:

I like your list. I have high hopes for Martin too. But he didn't tear his ACL, he only sprained it. Which is bad enough. Hopefully they'll take care of it soon & he won't need TJ surgery

Hearing that the opposite is true. Hope not, but fairly likely. 

Larnach seems the most likely breakout candidate if he can stay healthy. 

Maybe I have too high of expectations for Alcala, but I feel he needs to have an ERA that starts with a 2 to consider it a breakout year. He already set the bar so high with his 20+21 seasons.

On 3/23/2023 at 4:44 PM, Doctor Gast said:

I like your list. I have high hopes for Martin too. But he didn't tear his ACL, he only sprained it. Which is bad enough. Hopefully they'll take care of it soon & he won't need TJ surgery

Martin’s UCL, elbow injury is still up in the air relative to recovery time. He’s behind now for this year and needs time to grow offensively in the minors - hope he excels there!!

Breakout guys, Alcala - Larnach ……comeback players, Kepler - Gallo

.....comeback players Kepler and Gallo.   The Twins would LOVE IT if just one of those two ends up qualifying as a "comeback player!!!"