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rdehring

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Everything posted by rdehring

  1. rdehring
    Agree with Sano because he should play and entire year and Arraez because he will have some experience. But I really believe that Kepler will be better next year and better yet in years beyond.
  2. rdehring
    Sano and Rosario for one year of Betts...no. Add Balazovic and Gordon for Price and his huge contract...h...no. As I said yesterday, Balazovic is one of four prospects who are off the table. The others are Graterol, Lewis and Kirilloff. As for the bullpen, it is 6/8 set with Rogers, May, Duffey, Littell, Stashak and the rotating starters from Rochester on the 7am flight filling the 8th long reliever spot. Will Smith would be a great addition as both the second lefty and another dominant late inning arm. Add another solid vet and the bullpen is AOK! Agree that getting Odorizzi in the fold is a must. Hopefully, we will know by tomorrow that is a done deal reducing the FO job to finding two quality starters, assuming the final spot is a battle between a vet signed to a minor league contract and the four rookies from last year. Agree that once Odorizzi accepts the QO, the FO works out a 3 year extension for probably a bit more than $36million. Or maybe he wants to stay and has another solid offer and we hear tomorrow that he resigned for 3 or 4 years.
  3. rdehring
    I said it last year and will say it again, Kepler is just scratching the surface. Don't know when, but I believe he will be in the hunt for the 'triple crown' at some time in the future. Assuming he has a reasonably long career, I expect Kepler to receive consideration for the Hall of Fame 20 or so years from now. And Arraez will be the player he is. That's a young kid who knows the strike zone as well as anyone in the game. That will keep his OBP very high. Said last year that I expect him to consistently put up years with an OBP near or over .400 with batting averages in the low/mid to mid .300's. Assuming MLB does something about the baseball, Garver and Polanco both may hit less home runs in 2020. Sano on the other hand will hit more as he should have a full season. Most of Sano's home runs are way beyond the fence, thus, hitting them 10 or 20 feet shorter isn't going to cause the frequency of his home runs to decrease a lot. I don't see a huge regression from any of these players. Expect Garver will continue to play about half the time, although maybe more like 100+ games next year. Considering the expected change in the ball, would expect his numbers to dip a bit.
  4. rdehring
    Solid look at a young man who may be more important than any other player on the team. The reason is that he could become that ACE that you can throw out there in game one of any playoff series. Have always seen him as potentially becomming another Pedro Martinez. Will he? That remains to be seen. But if he can make those adjustments you reference, he just might. Whether he does or doesn't, still believe he is a valuable member of the Twins rotation and should be extended this winter even if it requires a million or two more per year than they would like. Let's get creative, front load a few million and keep this young man a Twin for his entire career (no, I am not talking about a 10 year extension, but 5 would be nice).
  5. rdehring
    I know what I said about Gonsalves, that he was a bit over rated. Always believed that he was going to be at best a guy that would battle for the #5 spot in the rotation. On the other hand, he was a good pick at whatever round he was taken. Once you get to round 3 or 5 or whatever, not many make it and he appeared to have some upside.
  6. rdehring
    What a great look at an off-season plan, Nick. The best article I have read in a long, long time. Couple of things, however. You included Romero in the group to open the season in the minors. Isn't he out of options? My heart is torn from my chest every time I read one of the numerous dump on Eddie articles this winter. With that said, however, I am not opposed to trading him for the reasons mentioned. My biggest question is what his exodus would do to the chemistry of this team? Knowing not a lot about Iglesias, I question including Balazovic in that deal. We have two pitchers in the minors that I believe have a chance to become that true shutdown ACE, Graterol and Balazovic. For that reason, I would prefer trading anyone from that next group, someone like Duran, Alcala, Colina, Rijo, etc. Yes, I know that the prospect you are highest on may never pitch an inning for the Twins and some other middle of the road prospect, say Ober, may become the next Warren Spahn. But let's hang on to the one or two that we feel has the best chance of being special. Finally, I expect the Twins to extend several of their arbitration players this winter, say, Buxton, Berrios and the reliever closest to free agency from the trio of Rogers, May and Duffey. They will spend several million extra as part of doing this, thus, the payroll would either need to surpass $140mm or they would need to find $5mm+/- savings from your budget above.
  7. rdehring
    Thanks for a reasonably positive post about Eddie. Will second, or third, those comments above about his drop off being related to his injury.
  8. rdehring
    I see Smeltzer beginning the season the same place he ended 2019. That is teaming with the likes of Thorpe, Graterol and Dobnak on the 7am flight to Minnesota from Rochester. I love how the Twins handled their need for a long reliever last year. Keep one of your best three or four starters from AAA in the big league bullpen. When he gets into a game and throws 3 or 4 innings, send him down and bring up the next guy. While in Minnesota he gains big league experience, earns a big league check and is limiting his innings (important for Graterol). When back in Rochester, he is stretched out in the starting rotation. When the need arises for a starter, one of the five comes up and is ready for go for the Twins every fifth day.
  9. rdehring
    That's your opinion that Rosario is coming off his worst year as a pro. My opinion is that he is a core member of this team, an important part of what made the Twins what they were in 2019. Furthermore, he played a good part of the season on a gimpy ankle. Wasn't the same player the last couple months of the season. When healthy, he is one heck of a player who I want on the Minnesota Twins. For whatever reason, I know others are down on him. Kind of like a lot of folks were down on Kepler last winter. Will agree, there are arguments for none of the core getting extensions this winter. Doesn't mean the FO shouldn't work their tails off to get a couple signed. This group came up together as winners nearly every stop of the way through the minors. Time to get after it and win one on the big stage.
  10. rdehring
    As I mentioned on another post, part of that $70mm everyone is talking about will be used to extend several young players. Shouldn't be a huge part, but I see them spending $5-$10mm extra on extensions to several of Berrios, Buxton, Rosario, Sano and one or two of their young relievers. Is also true that they could spend $70mm on new players, then go a step further to extend a couple of those guys. My biggest concern is that they get at least two of the four mentioned above inked to extensions similar in length to Polanco and Kepler. Love the chemistry of these young guys, lets keep them together long-term.
  11. rdehring
    We need to keep in mind that there should be several extensions that will eat up part of that $70mm everyone keeps talking about. Shouldn't be a big part, but could certainly be $5-$10mm if they extend several of Buxton, Berrios, Rosario or Sano. Could also be extensions for a couple young relievers. Hasn't Dyson already been waived and he elected free agency? Count me among those who wants all of the other arbitration back in 2020.
  12. rdehring
    Also thinking how disappointing it was that we wasted the #4 overall pick that year. Just took a look at the 2013 draft. There were 10 pitchers drafted after Stewart, only one (Marco Gonzalez, drafted by St. Louis) has done anything special in the big leagues. Granted a couple could be late bloomers and still do something, but not what I expected when I starter my research. Truth is 2013 was a terrible draft for pitchers. Didn't look to see what has developed from later rounds, but you can't blame the Twins for missing guys that weren't considered top prospects that year.
  13. rdehring
    Hamels and Teheran would both be very interesting as the Twins #4 starter, following Berrios (#2) and Odorizzi (#3)...assuming Jake accepts the QO. The interesting question is who can be obtained on a deal similar to when they traded for Odorizzi. A good #3 starter with a couple years control who can be had for one of those minor league prospects who needs to be added to the 40-man. You know, the next Odorizzi for Wander Javier.
  14. rdehring
    I 'liked' your comment bighat, although do believe that Kirilloff is special and is someone who should be retained. I like Larnach a ton, but am not as certain that he will be as good as Kirilloff. As for Stewart and Gonsalves moving on, not surprised at all. Expect there is also a very good chance that Harper and Hildenberger will be waived when they sign or trade for two of those big starters the team must find. With 9 open spots today, expect the first will be gone when Odorizzi accepts his QO. I assume the Twins can sit down with Odorizzi after he accepts and work out a longer term contract, can't they?
  15. rdehring
    With the 40-man at 31 today, they could add up to 9. BUT, they need at least 3 spots for starters and that assumes one of last year's rookies takes the #5 spot...which is questionable. So they probably need 4 spots for starters. I can see three more players likely to be removed from the roster as they add pitchers, Hildenberger, Harper and Poppen or the new guy. Put all these moves together and it is unlikely they will add more than 7 or 8 at the max. The player I disagree with you most, Seth, is Jax. I see him as a must add as I see him being one of the few from this list who could contribute by late summer. With his limited innings while in the Air Force, I see a much bigger upside than most. The biggest question marks to me are Chalmers, Celestino and Javier. Will be shocked if all three are added. I think the Rijo situation may be a bit like Santana and will be suprised if he isn't added as I expect him to be gone if he isn't.
  16. rdehring
    Agree it will be tough to succeed as a starter without a good third pitch, Mike. But he could be very successful as a reliever with the two plus, plus pitches he has.
  17. rdehring
    There will likely be several starters at Rochester with major league experience. In addition to Graterol, this could include Smeltzer, Thorpe, Dobnak, Stewart and Gonsalves. Unless one sticks with the Twins as a regular starter, I see all of them getting major league time just like last year. Get called up as the 8th reliever in the bullpen for long outings. Then after pitching, sent back to Rochester as a starter with someone else called up. I like this as it accomplishes three things that are important for most of these young guys. One, it gives them major league experience. Two, it also limits their innings as they will be pitching only 3 or 4 innings while with the Twins for a week or so. And three, it gives them a major league check for whatever number of games they are with the Twins. That's a lot of extra cash for most of these guys.
  18. rdehring
    Interesting comparison, especially how Soroka pitched only 30 innings a year ago. None of us know what the guys that will make these decisions are thinking. There is a chance, however, that they may be counting on one of their young starters taking one of those open spots in the rotation. Could it be Graterol? Certainly. But it also could be Dobnak, Thorpe, Smeltzer, or even long shots like Stewart or Gonsalves (assuming they are still Twins come spring training). If it is Graterol, I could see him paired with another starter (Thorpe? Smeltzer?) and pitching only 3-4 innings each start so that he ends the season around 120 innings. Should they bring back Pineda, expect one or two of these young guns will get the opportunity to show their stuff the first six weeks of the season.
  19. rdehring
    Thanks for a reasonable look at his situation, Nick. That's compared with all the dump on Eddie pieces I have seen the past few weeks. The player I see isn't the worst outfielder in baseball. Yes, he makes the boneheaded throw every once in awhile. But the player I watched before his injury was a good left fielder. How many hard hit balls hit along the left field line does he cut off and hold to a single? Constantly doing that is huge, albeit, he did a lot less of that after his injury. Several of his misplayed flyballs were also late in the season when he just wasn't running like the Eddie we have come to love. Will agree that he isn't the same defensively as I saw that first year he was called up, but the worst in baseball...don't care what the new numbers say...no way. I agree that we COULD see multiple trades this winter. But I think they are going to be more like the Odorizzi trade than what everyone is proposing for Eddie. Something like Wander Javier for pitcher X make sense? Or Luke Raley for pitcher Y? Or Nick Gordon for pitcher Z? That's what I am expecting. And if it is going to be 2 prospects for one pitcher I hope it happens in the next three weeks so they can protect one extra prospect from the Rule 5.
  20. rdehring
    Loved it, Stu. Thanks!
  21. rdehring
    He can play on my team. And no one who wasn't in the clubhouse every day knows what effect his injury had on his performance the last couple months. Watching Rosario run around the bases is like watching a deer run. Wasn't running like that after he returned from the ankle injury. What that did to his numbers, not a clue.
  22. rdehring
    Thanks for bringing us a great AFL season, Steve. If history tells us anything, we should be looking forward to Lewis joining the Twins in 2020. Will differ with you on where Raley is next year. I see him as part of a trade the Twins will pull off to fill one of those starting slots. Thanks again, Steve, a championship season for Twins prospects is always good.
  23. rdehring
    Only negative I see is that if he stays on the 40-man, another spot is taken that could have gone to player X. Expect there are going to be several players not added who's absence is going to be a surprise to many of us. Will any of them no longer be Twins come December? Time will tell, but I am expecting they are going to lose somebody (or somebodies) we like...alot.
  24. rdehring
    Have thought for some time that there is another option between home plate ump and robo. What if there wasa 5th umpire for each game, sitting in the press box with the electronic strike zone in front of him. He would have voice contact with the home plate ump. If the strike/ball call is clearly wrong, he tells him and the ump changes it. Would only do so on calls that were clearly wrong, ie, balls totally out of the zone that were called strikes or balls clearly in the zone that were called balls. Probably isn't more than a handful or so each game.
  25. rdehring
    Hey Travis, great hearing from you. Curious what University you are attending, how far you have gotten, your major, etc? Are your long term plans to stick with real estate or eventually go into your area of study?
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