D.C Twins

Buck's swing is now a compact and readily reproducible thing of beauty. He can and will get paid a lot on the open market. He and his agent most certainly understand this. It is amazing how many people still believe what people tell them. Buck would not sign an extension unless it is guaranteed money and more than his people think he would get on the open market. The decision now is whether to trade or get another cheap year out of him. Given the fact that we are missing an entire starting rotation, I think it is safe to say that we will not be competing for the WS next year and therefore should trade him. But hey, if it feels better to believe what people say above logic and actions, enjoy!

If you think Buck has a passion to remain a Twin, I've got some swamp land in Florida to sell you!

Buxton already gone... has been for 2 years. He has no love lost for this FO due to service time and swing instruction screw jobs. He would need ABOVE market value to stay. This franchise will come no where near that. Everything else falls under the categories of denial and click bait.

Well, we do need to acquire at least 4! MLB pitchers, so sure, I'd say all options have to be on the table. Self inflicted desperate times require.... well you know...

I am SHOCKED....wait...no I'm not... I've been saying an extension will not get done for well over a year on this site. 1. Buxton trusts his value on the open market 2. Buxton has no love lost for this FO that screwed with his service time and his swing 3. Our FO will not pay over market value which is what it would take to keep him here Ergo, he has always been gone. The purpose of the Twins FO leak about trading or keeping him for the year tells us that there are few (1-3 teams) in trading discussion who are low balling a bit because they have rightfully determined that the FO has to trade him and they don't want to bid against themselves. Therefore the Twins FO is threatening the possibility of keeping him through the end of his contract and lose him for nothing (which is insane...and they won't do...which the other FOs know...) They think they are being shrewd, but other FO will see right through it and giggle

Contgrats to Berrios for working hard, staying focused, and betting on himself. He is easy to root for and I will continue to do so for years to come (unless pitching against the Twins of course Our FO underestimates or cannot palate the cost of reliable pitching. The free agent pitcher list is already dwindling and we have 0 established MLB starting pitchers.... Maybe we have 2 Liriano type breakouts coming from our MiLB, but alas, pipe dreams are not a plans. I'm starting to follow the plight of our 2022 starting rotation more with morbid curiosity than breathless anticipation.

Andrew, your talent, confidence and ability to 'portfolio build' are self evident and have been well identified by the talented TD staff. If you have and refine your grit to go with your natural talents, I promise you will do well

Quick addendum: I refer to 'poo poo platter' for the relationship between the talent level of proposed players acquired/used versus the talent level needed to compete and win at the MLB level. The players on the MLB poo poo platter are phenomenal athletes in top 0.000 someting % of athletes and kudos to them. But unfortunately we are talking about what it takes to win at the MLB level.

Trading Berrios was absolutely the right thing to do, because he telegraphed that he fully intended to go to FA. BUT, that had been obvious to anyone paying attention for quite awhile. As such, there should have been planning to have even more experienced MLB pitching under multi-year contracts going into the off season. In FA negotiations and trading discussions, we are going to look desperate, because we are. People who are desperate have much less leverage and generally are taken advantage of during negotiations. Finding 9 pitchers to fill a 3 x3 x 3 model is much harder than it looks. It is hard enough to be successful signing or trading for previously successful starting pitchers. Now, you are essentially having to bet on the fact that you can correctly identify 9! pitchers from the poo poo platter that have only lacked success because they did not have the depth of talent to pitch more than 3 innings. Even if you are great at it, you are probably only correct on 5-6/9 chances. Averaging one pitcher blowing out per game will lead to many losses and blow out the strategy quickly. No preexisting MLB starting pitching makes for a HUGE off season lift (with essentially no room for error). I highly doubt any FO would privately admit that this is a desirable strategy. I stand by the opinion that the Twins are at risk for disaster next season due to lack of long term planning for the rotation.

With all do respect... a 'forward thinking front office' would not have allowed themselves to get into a predicament with exactly 0 proven starters on their MLB roster going into an off season. Kudos for them for trying to package 'we may have to go with a poo poo platter approach next year due to our catastrophic lack of foresight and planning' into 'i think with challenge comes opportunity' (did they get that line out of a spider-man cartoon?!). That verbal gymnastics could just buy them an extra year worth of salary... no shame in that game. This FO has done some very good things, but make no mistake about it, piss poor long term starting pitching planning is not one of them... and that lack of planning unfortunately is the odds on favorite for the cause of their demise at this point.

Another great article Andrew! I hope you are a permanent addition to the TD writers. Well thought out, reasoned, and explained. First Buxton take on this site that could be possible! 20 mil-ish per year + playing incentives is in the ballpark and his team would at least take that call. Because the FO failed to have a long term SP plan, they are stuck having to take chances and Rodon is as reasonable as any. Going into an off season with exactly 0 proven MLB starters is an epic fail (any free agent or trade partner will know that we are desperate and try to take advantage). I like Ober and Ryan but we have yet to see how they will respond when the league has an off season to adjust or how they will hold up over a long season health wise (remember than we though Dobnak would be a stater last season!). Most likely outcome is than one is an effective starter next year and one is not and we should plan for that.

I cannot remember which poster first brought this up but they absolutely nailed the conundrum this off season. There is a HUGE gap between the readiness of our line up and our pitching staff to compete next year. This makes planning confusing. When looking at the team through the lens of the line up.... 'we could compete next year as is!!!!' When looking at the team through the lens of the pitching staff.... "Holy Crap...we literally have 0 proven MLB starters on our roster going into the off season. We have NO chance to fill all of those gaps + enough depth for injuries in one off season with our payroll. I actually think the FO has done a lot of good things, but one of their biggest failures is not figuring out how to keep the pitching and line up progression on the same time line (or anywhere close) Again, this was first brought up by someone else and I wish I could remember who so that I could credit them!

Nice Job Nick! Verlander likely would not come here and frankly I'm OK with that. I don't see us contending next year, so I'd rather put that 20 mil into a 3-ish year contract for an above average pitcher who would still be around after we (hopefully) build another window to open up (and the hubcaps could certainly come off Verlander this year). I think the planning strategy for Lewis should be somewhere in between the doubters (like me who are concerned he may never be a high impact MLB player because of his poor hitting against MiLB) and rainbow/skittles optimists who think he could be up mid-year. Maybe, 'unlikely to have an MLB impact this year but optimistic for next year'? I've been much more snarky in previous posts. But, being more collegial, it would be shocking to me if Buck bet on himself all the way to 1 year out from free agency and then elected to 'sell low' on himself after another injury plagued season. I believe that he has his management are willing to bet on him being healthier and more productive this year to put him in a very nice position as he hits the open market. Again, when team waits to extend just one year out of FA, they have to come VERY close to what a player and their management believe that they can get on the open market. (which for Buck I believe will be A LOT more than 84 mil). I want Buck, but it will likely take a significant amount of guaranteed money (120mil min), for him to bypass an opportunity on the free market at this point. (That swing is so sweet and compact now....I am very bullish on his future as I suspect other teams will be as well)

Well thought out and well reasoned post. Have similar concerns as those expressed by others, but... more importantly.... Well done!

Point #2 from the above post. I do believe it is tremendously difficult to fill 4 SP spots! Realistically if you want a legit contender, one of Ober or Ryan should be penciled in for #5 with the rest going to more sure things. I am high on both Ober and Ryan, but it would be a mistake to assume that they will both seamlessly become reliable starters next year (if so, GREAT... you have better depth for inevitable injuries) The bullpen, same problem. Some flashes of promise toward the end of the year, but if you depend on too many flashes of promise, you will inevitably be disappointed. Ergo... lots of proven bullpen experience would need to be added...IF we going to be honest contenders. These additions would far outstrip our anticipated budget (but trades could happen at the expense of the future for a questionable 2022 run) So yes, I do believe the pitching holes are too many to fill in one year. Again , I desperately hope that I'm wrong!

It is totally fair for the FO and yourself to not be on board with signing Buck to a 5/125 extension due to obvious risks based on his history. It is totally fair to want to wait for more information. BUT... waiting also comes with a cost. When you try to extend someone only 1 year out from free agency, you have to almost match the ceiling of what Buck and his agent think they can get on the open market (with the likes of NY, Boston, LA, Angels, Chicago Cubs etc bidding). Players are more willing to take less money multiple years out from FA as a way to share injury risk with the club. Not-so-much 1 year out. I want to sign Buck....Total transcendent player....I just don't think the Twins will come anywhere near the price at this point. I desperately hope that I'm wrong! If a TD writer is interested in a great article idea.... research the history of players who signed extensions 1 year or less away from FA (with a focus on high level talent). That would be super interesting and may even disprove my position!

Yesssirrr..... That is literally the purpose of the comment section... Or...perhaps better stated for you... it is my opinion that this is an opinion section for peoples opinions on other peoples opinions of sometimes of their opinions but other times just new opinions

0% chance Buxton signs and extension. If an extension were to have happened it would have only made sense from his side 1-2 years ago. 0% chance of filling all of the holes in the starting rotation AND the bullpen. Poor chance of being meaningfully competitive next year.. SO..... Trade Buxton for great prospects. Call up Celelstino and let him learn on the job. Go with the kids in the starting rotation and see what we have in 2022 before signing FA in 2023. Ditto for our internal bullpen arms. Trade Donaldson for the best salary relief/prospect package available and let Miranda join Celestino. Let Sano try to be relevant one more time (nobody will trade anything for him anyway). Trade Garver (on borrowed time as 30 y/o catcher) and let Jeffers/Ro combo learn. Trade Kepler if there is a good offer (which there won't be so he stays). Sign one of the top 5 shortstops (good defense behind young pitchers while transitioning team into contenders....Also, Lewis is waaaaay far away and may never make it) 2022 for internal scouting and development.....2023 add what you learn that you need through FA/trades after 2022 information gathering. Regular season competitive with 1st round defeat in 2023 developing into playoff competitive in 2024 with potential for deep playoff run... That is the most realistic scenario to me. 5

Sano claims that he is going to be in the best shape of his life EVERY year. Alas, if only long home runs counted for extra runs.... but they of course do not. Therefore, Sano will continue to be a liability through next year until we can finally be out from under his contract

I think there is a reasonable chance that Ryan is the one that ends up as a shut down RP with his two pitch mix. If he cannot be a #3 or higher starter... I would transition him to that role pronto. Krill talent hype is legit.... BUT wrists are delicate and easily reinjured. I'm concerned about his long range health prospects Jax will be a great AAAA pitcher who can fill in as needed at the MLB level until he runs out of options... not a lot more....but nice maxing out of talent on his part! Good on him. I just don't see how Lewis will have an impact at the MLB level next year (or possibly ever). During his last full season he struggled in A ball with a 4:1 K to BB ratio... And that is before missing two seasons and a major injury. He has a much bigger chance of being a bust than being a longer term asset for the Twins. I hope I'm wrong. The only way we are playoff level competitive next year is if we have two Liriano like surprises come out of the minors. Not likely, but not completely impossible. Next year is going to be a development year

I'm even more bullish on Celestino.... I think he is the heir apparent to Buxton in CF after he is traded this winter. I also think he will preform admirably next year in the MLB. (again... I don't WANT Buxton to leave the Twins, but he will leave on the open market, so the FO is obligated to get some return for hime)

I'm not sure what larger plan is going to involve us not losing Colina, but still having...oh I don't have the time or energy to list them all (but I will say that I am winking at you first Thorpe). The FO has something running down it's leg.... and it smells baaaad!

Um... 'fire and passion' is not the the same as 'fire and brimstone....emotional and angry', but thanks for playing! Most great leaders have a healthy dose of charisma and are able to adjust their approach and intensity to match what different players (employees, soldiers etc) need (not necessarily think they want at the time) in different situations. Rocco has not demonstrated this. Again, just curious, would you put any money on Rocco ever having another MLB manager position in the future?

Umm... We were considered to be equally talented at the beginning of the year...so...yeah... Tony L and the White Sox had a fantastic season and made more than the expected progression with their youngish team. Us on the other hand wildly under performed, especially when the games actually mattered. During that stretch Rocco made obvious mistakes and mismanaged his bullpen, all while not deviating from his robotic demeanor. Again, Tony L has won with multiple MLB teams over decades. Rocco will never be a MLB manager again. You are right... Tony L is not a great example...he is an AMAZINGLY FANTASTIC example

Rocco seems like a nice and knowledgeable dude. I think he works hard, prepares, and takes his job seriously. BUT, he is not great at making snap decisions in the moment during games and is prone to overthinking things. He is also not a great 'leader of men.' There is no fire or passion displayed or nuanced variance in his player approach to adjust to what his team may need at a given time (In response to the inevitable "you are not in the locker room," there has been absolutely no indication from media/players that he is any different behind closed doors) Unfortunately those are important traits for a successful manager. He was exposed by the tragic loss of Bell and the departure of his initial hitting coach. I'll give you all a thought experiment... when Rocco is eventually fired (and he will be).... do you think he will ever have another MLB manager job? If the answer is 'no' then he probably isn't the best choice for us now. What Tony L did with Chicago this year is no accident. A good manager shows up in results. I think Rocco would be fantastic as a bench coach or leading an analytics department, just not as an MLB manager