D.C Twins

Great write up as always Nick, but Sabato reference could only have been for a comedic break There is a 0.0% chance he has any impact on the Twins roster this year....

Yes, he can.... and he will IF he stays healthy. Buckle up buttercups, he is going to have one special season.... IF he stays healthy....(just put that at the end of any Buck related post, kinda like 'in bed' after the end of any fortune cookie saying

This is the opening salvo of The Flavine Big Bet. The only explanation for this pitching staff is that they BELIEVE in the young and upcoming pitchers. They are showing big cojones, I'll give them that It could easily be argued that we have a #3, two #5s, and ??? (three question marks... see what I did there) in our starting rotation with a whole bunch more ????? waiting in AAA. If Buck, Palanco, and Correa stay healthy, this team will always have a punchers chance and be amusing to no end. It is highly unlikely though, that the pitching staff can hold for a whole season unfortunately

I don't really care who the Twins select from the remaining poo poo platter this year.... as long as they don't block too much time for the prospects to come up and play. They need to let the kids play this year and figure out what they have and adjust accordingly next off season (Especially the pitchers). Otherwise, we are going to end up in a 40-man roster crunch and lose talent

Too late!

Has yet to demonstrate that he can consistently hit even A pitching over a sustained period (that SO/BB ratio in A his last full year is a doozie (yes he did have a good AZ league but that is a SSS). Future MLB superstars do not historically struggle in the low minors for even a season. Of course some unbiased evaluators of talent are going to find 100 players they are more excited about. Bottom line is simply that he needs to dominate competition in AA or AAA this year (not just compete) if he is to become a top prospect again....no excuses....no 'developing' .... no 'it's the process' this year. Yep, this year is just about results... and only results If he cannot demonstrate clear superiority in the MiLB this year... he may eventually make the MLB but will no longer be a 'top prospect'. IMHO TD has vastly overrated Royce regularly because of his draft position (perceived 5 tool player who has certainly been missing the hitting tool so maybe not so much) and by all accounts he is a great guy. He would not be in my top 3 Twin prospects currently and maybe not even in the top 5. I desperately hope I'm wrong... (i certainly was about Buxton signing a wildly team friendly extension!) All should agree though that THIS is the year the debate will be answered.

Scot Erickson has a similar dominant 1/2 season in 1991 undone by unsustainable torque on his arm as well... but boy was that 1/2 equally as fun to watch as Liriano's half season....

For those who were too young to remember.... the best 1/2 seasons of pitching in twins history were Francisco Liriano 2006 Scott Erickson 1991 Each were ABSOLUTELY DOMINANT for a brief period. (arguably more than even peak Santana... but obviously he was great for much longer Unbelievably fun to watch. It was similar to watching Moss during his rookie season.... just so rare to watch a player overwhelm opponents at the professional level in any sport. For that, I'm so grateful to Liriano....it doesn't come along often....

Congrats to Buck, the Twins, and the fans! I'd also like to acknowledge that I was obviously 100% WRONG that that Buck and the FO had no way of coming together on an agreement (and about bad blood that apparently did not exist). That said, It is a wonderfully team friendly deal (pay for performance...and if great performance, extra pay well worth it). Buck has really put together a beautiful and reproducible swing and I anticipate a HUGE year for him upcoming. After turning down extensions all they way up to 1 year out of FA, seems odd to cut a deal coming out of a 'lost year." Maybe the anticipated new CB structure changed the calculus. Alas, no matter what the reasoning, I'm super happy to be COMPLETELY WRONG on this issue and could not be more excited to retain a generational talent.

Great point! I personally think at least 2 of the the 6-ish deep pocket teams will be salivating which would be enough to drive up the price... but we shall see. I also wonder though if the Twins are being low balled in trade offers because they waited too long and are up against the wall a bit. Optimal time to make a decision to extend or trade would have been 2 years out, not 1 year out, for maximum value and minimum desperation.

You need to be selling season tickets for the Twins!!!!!

Buck's swing is now a compact and readily reproducible thing of beauty. He can and will get paid a lot on the open market. He and his agent most certainly understand this. It is amazing how many people still believe what people tell them. Buck would not sign an extension unless it is guaranteed money and more than his people think he would get on the open market. The decision now is whether to trade or get another cheap year out of him. Given the fact that we are missing an entire starting rotation, I think it is safe to say that we will not be competing for the WS next year and therefore should trade him. But hey, if it feels better to believe what people say above logic and actions, enjoy!

If you think Buck has a passion to remain a Twin, I've got some swamp land in Florida to sell you!

Buxton already gone... has been for 2 years. He has no love lost for this FO due to service time and swing instruction screw jobs. He would need ABOVE market value to stay. This franchise will come no where near that. Everything else falls under the categories of denial and click bait.

Well, we do need to acquire at least 4! MLB pitchers, so sure, I'd say all options have to be on the table. Self inflicted desperate times require.... well you know...

I am SHOCKED....wait...no I'm not... I've been saying an extension will not get done for well over a year on this site. 1. Buxton trusts his value on the open market 2. Buxton has no love lost for this FO that screwed with his service time and his swing 3. Our FO will not pay over market value which is what it would take to keep him here Ergo, he has always been gone. The purpose of the Twins FO leak about trading or keeping him for the year tells us that there are few (1-3 teams) in trading discussion who are low balling a bit because they have rightfully determined that the FO has to trade him and they don't want to bid against themselves. Therefore the Twins FO is threatening the possibility of keeping him through the end of his contract and lose him for nothing (which is insane...and they won't do...which the other FOs know...) They think they are being shrewd, but other FO will see right through it and giggle

Contgrats to Berrios for working hard, staying focused, and betting on himself. He is easy to root for and I will continue to do so for years to come (unless pitching against the Twins of course Our FO underestimates or cannot palate the cost of reliable pitching. The free agent pitcher list is already dwindling and we have 0 established MLB starting pitchers.... Maybe we have 2 Liriano type breakouts coming from our MiLB, but alas, pipe dreams are not a plans. I'm starting to follow the plight of our 2022 starting rotation more with morbid curiosity than breathless anticipation.

Andrew, your talent, confidence and ability to 'portfolio build' are self evident and have been well identified by the talented TD staff. If you have and refine your grit to go with your natural talents, I promise you will do well

Quick addendum: I refer to 'poo poo platter' for the relationship between the talent level of proposed players acquired/used versus the talent level needed to compete and win at the MLB level. The players on the MLB poo poo platter are phenomenal athletes in top 0.000 someting % of athletes and kudos to them. But unfortunately we are talking about what it takes to win at the MLB level.

Trading Berrios was absolutely the right thing to do, because he telegraphed that he fully intended to go to FA. BUT, that had been obvious to anyone paying attention for quite awhile. As such, there should have been planning to have even more experienced MLB pitching under multi-year contracts going into the off season. In FA negotiations and trading discussions, we are going to look desperate, because we are. People who are desperate have much less leverage and generally are taken advantage of during negotiations. Finding 9 pitchers to fill a 3 x3 x 3 model is much harder than it looks. It is hard enough to be successful signing or trading for previously successful starting pitchers. Now, you are essentially having to bet on the fact that you can correctly identify 9! pitchers from the poo poo platter that have only lacked success because they did not have the depth of talent to pitch more than 3 innings. Even if you are great at it, you are probably only correct on 5-6/9 chances. Averaging one pitcher blowing out per game will lead to many losses and blow out the strategy quickly. No preexisting MLB starting pitching makes for a HUGE off season lift (with essentially no room for error). I highly doubt any FO would privately admit that this is a desirable strategy. I stand by the opinion that the Twins are at risk for disaster next season due to lack of long term planning for the rotation.

With all do respect... a 'forward thinking front office' would not have allowed themselves to get into a predicament with exactly 0 proven starters on their MLB roster going into an off season. Kudos for them for trying to package 'we may have to go with a poo poo platter approach next year due to our catastrophic lack of foresight and planning' into 'i think with challenge comes opportunity' (did they get that line out of a spider-man cartoon?!). That verbal gymnastics could just buy them an extra year worth of salary... no shame in that game. This FO has done some very good things, but make no mistake about it, piss poor long term starting pitching planning is not one of them... and that lack of planning unfortunately is the odds on favorite for the cause of their demise at this point.

Another great article Andrew! I hope you are a permanent addition to the TD writers. Well thought out, reasoned, and explained. First Buxton take on this site that could be possible! 20 mil-ish per year + playing incentives is in the ballpark and his team would at least take that call. Because the FO failed to have a long term SP plan, they are stuck having to take chances and Rodon is as reasonable as any. Going into an off season with exactly 0 proven MLB starters is an epic fail (any free agent or trade partner will know that we are desperate and try to take advantage). I like Ober and Ryan but we have yet to see how they will respond when the league has an off season to adjust or how they will hold up over a long season health wise (remember than we though Dobnak would be a stater last season!). Most likely outcome is than one is an effective starter next year and one is not and we should plan for that.

I cannot remember which poster first brought this up but they absolutely nailed the conundrum this off season. There is a HUGE gap between the readiness of our line up and our pitching staff to compete next year. This makes planning confusing. When looking at the team through the lens of the line up.... 'we could compete next year as is!!!!' When looking at the team through the lens of the pitching staff.... "Holy Crap...we literally have 0 proven MLB starters on our roster going into the off season. We have NO chance to fill all of those gaps + enough depth for injuries in one off season with our payroll. I actually think the FO has done a lot of good things, but one of their biggest failures is not figuring out how to keep the pitching and line up progression on the same time line (or anywhere close) Again, this was first brought up by someone else and I wish I could remember who so that I could credit them!

Nice Job Nick! Verlander likely would not come here and frankly I'm OK with that. I don't see us contending next year, so I'd rather put that 20 mil into a 3-ish year contract for an above average pitcher who would still be around after we (hopefully) build another window to open up (and the hubcaps could certainly come off Verlander this year). I think the planning strategy for Lewis should be somewhere in between the doubters (like me who are concerned he may never be a high impact MLB player because of his poor hitting against MiLB) and rainbow/skittles optimists who think he could be up mid-year. Maybe, 'unlikely to have an MLB impact this year but optimistic for next year'? I've been much more snarky in previous posts. But, being more collegial, it would be shocking to me if Buck bet on himself all the way to 1 year out from free agency and then elected to 'sell low' on himself after another injury plagued season. I believe that he has his management are willing to bet on him being healthier and more productive this year to put him in a very nice position as he hits the open market. Again, when team waits to extend just one year out of FA, they have to come VERY close to what a player and their management believe that they can get on the open market. (which for Buck I believe will be A LOT more than 84 mil). I want Buck, but it will likely take a significant amount of guaranteed money (120mil min), for him to bypass an opportunity on the free market at this point. (That swing is so sweet and compact now....I am very bullish on his future as I suspect other teams will be as well)

Point #2 from the above post. I do believe it is tremendously difficult to fill 4 SP spots! Realistically if you want a legit contender, one of Ober or Ryan should be penciled in for #5 with the rest going to more sure things. I am high on both Ober and Ryan, but it would be a mistake to assume that they will both seamlessly become reliable starters next year (if so, GREAT... you have better depth for inevitable injuries) The bullpen, same problem. Some flashes of promise toward the end of the year, but if you depend on too many flashes of promise, you will inevitably be disappointed. Ergo... lots of proven bullpen experience would need to be added...IF we going to be honest contenders. These additions would far outstrip our anticipated budget (but trades could happen at the expense of the future for a questionable 2022 run) So yes, I do believe the pitching holes are too many to fill in one year. Again , I desperately hope that I'm wrong!