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ToddlerHarmon

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Everything posted by ToddlerHarmon

  1. ToddlerHarmon
    Only an 18 hour road trip away...
  2. ToddlerHarmon
    I like this skeptical look at the Twins. I have hope still for Sano, Buxton, Kepler, and Polanco, but they have to establish themselves consistently at a high level this year. Assume Rosario and Garver will be ok. Even then you need a shortstop (Polanco to 2B), first, and DH. Gordon, Rooker, and Cave? Possible, but it will be painful for all this year, Gordon is not looking like a future starter or a glove-first backup, and Cave probably doesn't have that much offense in him. Basically, this year is where we find out whether Lewis and Kiriloff complete the picture in 2020, or whether they are the reset button. Scary stuff.
  3. ToddlerHarmon
    I agree with many of the commenters that any near-term success depends on Buxton and Sano turning things around. However, it is not a reasonable expectation for that to happen in 2019. That situation will be better understood at the end of this year, so I endorse planning around 2020 and beyond. As to trading Kepler, the other thing we hope to see this year is better instruction and coaching at the major league level. That is essential for ever getting Sano and Buxton right, but it might also salvage Kepler, whose only flaw is that his contact is too soft.
  4. ToddlerHarmon

    Lollygagging?

    ToddlerHarmon commented on ashbury's blog entry in Left Coast Bias

    I'd call that a mistake on Dozier's part. Laziness? Not really, IMO.
  5. ToddlerHarmon
    We have a catcher in Rochester with a 2% K rate who cam pick runners off first without looking, and he's blocked by Bobby Wilson?
  6. ToddlerHarmon
    Nothing more adventurous, like replacing Grossman or Wilson, or Adrianza out instead of Petit? I think the Twins need to be bolder if they are going to make that leap.
  7. ToddlerHarmon
    Based on stats, how does this not go to Tyler Duffey?
  8. ToddlerHarmon
    As others have commented, they seem to be holding a chair open in case an infielder hits the waiver wire in the next few days. Is Profar a possibility?
  9. ToddlerHarmon
    Incredible story, well done!
  10. ToddlerHarmon
    The eye test says Rosario's a good candidate for number 3 hitter: great contact, good power, decent speed Also, if you look at 2017 season stats, you have the following top Twins hitters: AVG: Mauer, Rosario, Dozier, Sano OBP: Mauer, Dozier, Sano, Morrison SLG: Morrison, Rosario, Sano, Dozier That's right, there are only 5 hitters on the Twins covering the top 4 of all three triple-slash categories. Seems pretty obvious who the top 5 in the lineup should be. With Rosario's potential for a high average with power, he seems the likeliest #3 of these.
  11. ToddlerHarmon
    I disagree about Granite vs. Grossman on the bench. Grossman can allow any of 4 lefties to sit vs LHP, and is stronger as a RH, especially at getting on base. Now, if it comes time to replace a starting oufielder due to injury, Granite is definitely your guy. Especially because Adrianza already provides some speed off the bench.
  12. ToddlerHarmon
    So, adding up the damage, we drop: Mejia, Duffey, Busenitz, Curtiss, Reed, and Vargas. We see less projected time from: Hughes, Gibson, and Grossman. More importantly, these are now the guys who step in for injuries or ineffectiveness. Looking at the list, these would have been the highlights of our 2016 pitching staff. So things are looking up.
  13. ToddlerHarmon
    I like these lineups, except maybe that Granite wouldn't be a better choice than Kepler, even against lefties. The other point I would make is that there is a lot of flexibility if someone struggles or takes off. Things won't fall apart from one injury or slump. The potential is tremendous. Buxton, Polanco, and Kepler are all candidates to improve on last year's season numbers dramatically, and be offensive stars. Yet they begin the season as the most likely choices for the 9 hole. Nice.
  14. ToddlerHarmon
    Trying to interpret FanGraphs, he struggled with fastball control last year, but threw the slider more effectively than ever. So either the fastball control comes back and yay, or he becomes a junkballer and meh. But for Palacios, it's hard to imagine this being a big loss for the Twins.
  15. ToddlerHarmon
    I second the call to see where Morris' performance stacks up all time. I'd just like to see the all time list...
  16. ToddlerHarmon
    What strikes me is that Arrieta is only disappointing compared to the high bar he set. These numbers show him to be the cream of this list alongside Yu
  17. ToddlerHarmon
    IMO, the video is impressive not because it reveals Castro pulling, but because it reveals the subtlety of it. He uses the necessary closing of his hand as an opportunity to change his wrist orientation, in the process moving the ball towards the center of the plate, but also bringing it to a dead stop. It left me thinking that if umpires could track the ball well enough for framing to have no impact, well, they would be major league hitters instead.
  18. ToddlerHarmon
    Thank you! Excellent research, and a great look back.
  19. ToddlerHarmon
    Zactly. In order to be meaningful, the stat would have to correlate launch angle/exit velocity with pitches, at the least (pops up four-seamers, chops curveballs, etc.) Then, you would also have to learn whether angle/exit stabilizes over a hitter's career. Do we predict off of a young player's second half, whole season, minor league record? Also, is the stat a good predictor at all? Eyeballing the lists above against baserunning speed, it looks like it might underrate speed's effect on hitting performance, especially for those who hit grounders frequently. Still, an interesting approach with potential. Thanks for the post, Thrylos!
  20. ToddlerHarmon
    They have to be planning for 8 relievers, or a trade, or something.
  21. ToddlerHarmon
    This is an opportunity for Falvine to demonstrate big-picture thinking. It is correct that in 2021, paying Darvish $30M while trying to retain Sano/Buxton/Berrios/Rosario will probably break the annual 50% revenue rule-of-thumb the Pohlads like. However, I'm hoping they pitch to the Pohlads that some years are just going to cost more, and that investments have to spike to maintain a fan base, build future revenue, and remain a desirable destination for big name free agents. So yes, a "market" contract for Darvish will give you tight years, and it will probably result in overpaying the last couple of years. But if it buys you deep playoff runs, sold out stadiums, a better TV deal, the loyalty of young players who want to win, and the occasional signing of ring-chasing veterans, then it more than pays off. In other words, the wisdom of the contract isn't whether it pays off in one player's performance in any given year. It is how it pays off over a long stretch, from a lot of angles.
  22. ToddlerHarmon
    Don't forget that in all his steal attempts, not a single throw beat him to the bag, as his one caught stealing was on an overslide.
  23. ToddlerHarmon
    Nice post. I could have quibbles over who exactly to believe in, but I like the general thrust. Believe in the youth, and look for top line help from outside, not just roster filler. As your WAR analysis shows, there are not many roster disasters, so filler is not improvement. In all, I would take your blueprint over Seth's any day.
  24. ToddlerHarmon
    Knowing that Sano could be a healthy, fit, improving 3B would solve so many issues. Of course, deciding that he won't be those things and should DH instead could allow the Twins to solve those issues too. After next year, we might need to find a good defensive 3B other than Sano. The Twins better make sure that Nick Gordon gets some 3B time in AAA this year.
  25. ToddlerHarmon
    Coming in to the season, Falvine had to consider whether these players would blossom, how long it would take, and whether Molitor was the right guy to make it happen. It happened, in one season, and with visible, measurable in-season improvements in approach, mechanics, and results by several key players: Buxton, Rosario, Berrios, Gibson, Polanco. That only leaves the question of whether the talent could also turn into wins. It did. I don't see how this adds up to anything but a new contract for Molitor.
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