twinstalker

The problem here is that the Twins will be getting back a deep prospect. That almost makes it senseless to go after a hitting prospect, since Twins can't identify or develop hitting. On the other hand, they can look for a deep pitching prospect to develop. But I doubt they'll be there to develop it.

Made and De Vries are potential superstars, and their probability of getting there is reasonably high. De Paula and Eldridge are good/great prospects (I'm not a big De Paula fan), but you wouldn't trade Ryan for them. Eldridge would be great with something major added. I wouldn't consider De Paula one of the Dodgers I'd want (Quintero, Hope, et al), but that's not to say he couldn't be better than some of them.

Castro and EmRod for Luis Pena! and a pitcher the Twins like the Brewers don't. Pena's going to be a starting infielder. Law has him at 37. He's an 18 year old SS at low A with a K-rate of 13%, and that's ridiculous. His slash is .316/.383/.486, 13 2B, 6 3B, 6 HR in 287 PAs. He's 40 and 7 on the basepaths. Since Castro would never come close to getting such a prospect, the Twins would be wise to move a guy who not only spends most of his time on the IL but also probably isn't going to be much of a hitter under their development. Milwaukee might like EmRod. This would be a great deal for the Twins and keep us from years of headaches.

And there's the possibility they can unlock him as a starter. It's how they got Ryan. Most people thought he was destined for relief. It made sense.

There are the right circumstances, but they're unrealistic, probably. They would need to get an injured (but only for 2025) very good starter plus great prospect capital. It just doesn't happen outside of fantasy leagues.

A good comp for Houston is Wake's SS/CF/3B from last year also drafted in rd 1 (10th), Seaver King. King was arguably a better hitter, in that he hit for more power and struck out less, though his walk rate for college was low. Houston hit for more average, driven by a monster BABIP. Currently, King is hitting .244/.292/.342 in 366 PAs (A+ and AA). Houston almost certainly will start at low A and should, as a first round pick, destroy that league (like Culpepper and unlike DeBarge). For the record, King's slash was .295/.367/.385 with 14% K-rate at low A last year, a very mediocre result given his status and age over level (+0.4 yrs). Culpepper's sss slash was .297/.366/.541 with a 5% K-rate in a tougher park/league for hitters. At Ft. Myers, to make us feel somewhat confident the Twins didn't totally blow this pick, Houston should put up a good slash (BABIP dependent, though) and strike out less than 10% of the time, the latter being more important. Class A is beneath a first round pick and I'm guessing the only reason these guys are sent there is to get their feet wet under the eyes of the organization. King was a bad pick, one likely driven by the Nationals not accounting for how Wake's park affected his stats and perhaps overvaluing his small college stats. When I analyzed him in December he felt more like a 2nd rd pick, so going 10th screamed reach. The Twins to a slightly lesser extent have that issue, too, plus they picked a non-power guy in Marek Houston who strikes out more often (15.4% at Wake vs King's 12.0%). It's difficult to see how this is going to work out for the Twins, though it's possible it can. To me the obvious pick here was HS SS Kayson Cunningham, who went quickly to Arizona afterwards. The Twins seem to be in search of another Keaschall but still don't understand what made him a good pick two years ago.

Falvey's made some moves that give us reason to question him. Drafting, alone, is reason to question him. If he makes a trade for a few guys people here really want, then he'll really be poor at his job. Irony! Honestly, Falvey is in charge of drafting, of developing hitters and pitchers, and of identifying talent that should be brought into the organization. The only things he apparently has done right is identifying pitchers and developing them. (and yes, I understand he delegates)

Fun for the Dodgers.

J John K. · 8h 17m ago Where is Owen Cassie in your top prospects? Keith Law · 1h 8m ago STAFF @John K. He's not. Nor should he be. 5

What are you talking about? I never said that. I said that's an issue they fall prey to.

Yeah, it is concerning, and it's the only reason I'd consider trading Jax over Duran. I've mostly been hoping it's Duran traded.

C'mon, guys, Owen Caissie and Dalton Rushing are not good prospects. You wonder why prospects ranked highly so often fail? It's not a random thing. It's that the ranking system hasn't caught on to the one fundamental. Minor league slash lines don't mean nearly as much as they think they do, certainly not without context. Major league pitchers are going to toy with Caissie, as evidenced by the fact he can't put the ball in play against minor league pitchers often enough. It's more nuanced than that, but that's the general idea. Rushing just isn't that good. His stats are inflated, and for his age/levels and parks, he also strikes out too much. He simply is going to be mediocre. Both these guys are bad targets, and the Cubs and Dodgers truly hope the Twins are interested in them. Ballesteros, on the other hand, is a star. His age/levels, production, strikeout rate, all project to star at the major league level. If the Twins were able to get him for Duran, I would be thrilled. You get Caissie for Duran, and the fanbase, after initial excitement followed by the pitchers figuring out his many weaknesses, will be screaming for the heads of Falvey and anyone else in the front office. Ballesteros is the man, not enough by himself for Ryan (not even adding the pitcher suggested), but the man the Twins need to land next week. I enjoy the podcast, at least until you get to the Guess the Twin segment. That's unnecessary, I think, but I can switch off.

Stewart pitched.

You might be right that it's not enough for Ryan, but it's the right big names. The top prospects I know otherwise are actually incredibly overrated (Caissie, Alcantara) or are probably too much to throw our way (Rojas, Birdsell). I worry the Twins have no ability to identify low minors hitters, an exercise thoroughly complicated by the Arizona Complex Bandboxes the Cubs and others play in/on. But I do think they could find a pitcher or two.

It would really hurt emotionally to do this deal, but it's the right names. I haven't read the comments, but as long as no one threw the name Caissie in there, they're probably fine. I did see one that mentioned getting these two for a reliever (as hope, not expectation), but I think Ballesteros is too good to not get a lot more. Although we gave up Wilson Ramos for a crappy reliever, which is really a partial answer to "why can't we have good things?" Wiggins has a special upside he probably won't hit as a starter, but he might. Ballesteros is ready, and if he can field, he's our full-time 1B. I'd really try for Ballesteros with one of our stud relievers and maybe some other stuff. Like EmRod. Maybe Duran+EmRod for Ballesteros and Wiggins! Problem is that the Cubs have already been enduring their own EmRod with Owen Caissie, so I doubt they get fooled again.

Dodgers officials are tripping all over themselves to see if you have any power to make deals. This would be just about the worst deal in Twins history.

Rushing is not a high upside hitter. I'm amazed people want players who don't project to be much of anything. Rushing and Cub Owen Caissie are the two prime examples. Don't get fooled by the minor league stats. Use them. For Rushing the biggest indicator is the one tough park in the Dodgers system: Great Lakes in the Midwest League. Rushing was 22, in some ways old for the level prospect-wise, but he was following the same path the Twins have been mostly setting forth for their college prospects. Spend the draft season at low A, then spend the first part of the next year at A+. Except he couldn't get out of A+ (like DeBarge and Schobel). At A+ Rushing had a K rate of close to 25%. At age 22. As a catcher. And he didn't get promoted. For comparison, Kaelen Culpepper was at 16%. This is important. My current analysis has KC as similar to or slightly better major leaguer than Brooks Lee. Rushing, for me, projects as much less than Lee. Strikeout rate isn't all that variable, though the ballpark can affect it. Great hitting parks are great hitting in part because they're not conducive to strikeouts for whatever reason (mound, foul territory). And the PCL is a whole league of that. So Rushing's K rate is too high for his age/level/park. K-rate comparison (they all are born within weeks of each other, relative to draft year) Player A+ AA AAA Rushing 24.3 (22y) 20.7 (23y) 20.1 (23y) (22.0 in repeat age 24) Lee 15.8 (21y) 15.9 (22y) 16.7 (22y) (14.0 in repeat age 23) Culpepper 16.2 (22y) 14.9 (22y) tbd There is no greater predictor of success than a combination of age/level/K-rate, assuming a baseline of a quality slash line. Rushing is at best a mediocre player at the MLB level. The slash lines for each are not really worthy of mention, other than Rushing's A+ being disturbing (.228/.404/.452) and a bit intriguing with an ISO of .224. Extremely high walk rates, though, are actually negative indicators. Also, Caissie's K rates are so bad, he's not worth mentioning, unless it's in reference to a race with EmRod to see who gets dumped first by their team. Looking at slash lines is valuable if you account for K-rate and adjust for age, level, and park. These don't only knock down Rushing considerably, they also knock down Culpepper and Lee, though Lee at this point in the analysis has some age advantage (not much on Culpepper). Finally, I've never considered Rushing a real catcher, but he's playing there for now, so I don't know what happens there. Reports are not great.

My analysis on him was he'd be a second division starter (bottom 15). That was based partially on his hitting stats and age at two hitters' parks in Wichita and St. Paul. He also had a good K rate. Currently he's still learning MLB and will be an okay player when he does. My guess is that, barring injury, he can be a .275/.340/.410 player in some seasons. While he's not going to get you excited, he'll be steady and put the ball in play. He's the last thing the Twns need to worry about going forward. He'll just play where needed and do it decently. Kaelen Culpepper offers a similar, if more exciting due to health and athleticism, profile. If KC carries his slash line through the rest of his AA season, it might portend a better hitter, but Lee had 300 more PAs at AA to even out his numbers. Both are/were at Wichita at the same age.

This is true. You could add Correa and Larnarch in there as super disappointing. Buxton, Castro, Jeffers have done well, no one else, maybe Bader, I guess.

Yeah, the article is on point. If not for last year, though, I might have more of an argument against it. He's definitely BABIP dependent, which is okay if your BABIP is consistently high and you don't strikeout much. Wade Boggs! That means line drives with high exit velocities. What can affect the ability to output that consistently? A lot. Minor injury, stance, trying to get more lift, not seeing the ball as well, facing better command (hello, Jose Miranda). So I don't know what happened last year, but I suspect the Twins had plans to build his hit tool into a hit/power tool. FYI, I follow all prospects in all orgs, and Seattle's low A (Modesto?) is a huge hit factory. All their good and decent prospects crush there then struggle thereafter, comparatively, so that does explain some, I think. Also recognize that Wichita and St. Paul are hitters paradises, too. I rank Gonzalez high among Twins hitting prospects, but I shake my head every time I do, because it's not really that I believe for sure he'll make it. Twins hitting is just really bad, with only really Jenkins and Keaschall any good. Culpepper has a chance, but he's older than Gonzalez and doing less, sort of. EmRod, not really. The only reason I keep EmRod in the top 10 Twins is the power and a few unknowns. Don't get fooled by Wichita stats...or St. Paul stats, and be very cognizant of age and K rate.

Why are there so few options to replace the current top 20 guys?

It's not really going to matter. I would love the Twins to trade him. As for CF future, this is the return the Twins need to get in trade. I've mentioned AJ Ewing (for Coloumbe) and Eduardo Quintero (for Jax or Duran) as main pieces in deals. Both centerfielders ready in three years.

Kemp has an age vs level problem. Trust me, these don't generally go well. Even older than his competition (which, without special circumstances, is bad) he strikes out at a 23.2% rate in the minors. If he were 22 yrs old right now, that might not be a big deal. He turns 26 in a few weeks. Generally we've spent most of our lives as stupid fans. We hear about a guy with an .844 OPS in the minors, and we cross our fingers that the Twins know what they're doing. But really we can now tell this right off the bat. The formula is there, for hitters anyway. Most importantly, he's too old for a prospect. He can't quite figure out how to make contact. Even in ABS patrolled AAA, he strikes out at 25% at an old 25 yr old. He does appear to have some power, but unless we're getting the next Nelson Cruz, which I'm pretty sure he's not, there are red flags. There are over 4,000 prospects out there. Very, very few are good enough to really help a major league team eventually. However, there are a LOT of players who put together a hitting slash line that looks good if we don't know how to look beyond it. The key is being able to distinguish between good/great slashes that project and those that don't project. And the ability to do that is knowing what truly is important on the periphery. Age is huge, age vs level is huge, K-rate vs age vs level is huge and also depends on things like college draftee vs HS draftee vs Int'l signee, not to mention the parks and leagues a prospect plays in. No to Kemp as anything but a throw-in.

I have zero confidence the Twins understand anything about hitters or hitting.

Why? Dodgers would love to trade Rushing. Rushing is an old non-catching prospect who has benefited from the Dodger minor league parks. The one park that isn't a bandbox or in a bandbox league, he batted .228 and was incredibly passive at the plate. A seriously overrated prospect who's already in the process of moving off catcher. Ferris walks too many, doesn't strike out enough for the walks, etc. He's a far better get than Rushing, but I don't want Ferris as the main piece. They need to get Eduardo Quintero, a fantastic CF who's ready for A+ ball. There's also Emil Morales, who strikes out way too much right now but is an OF power hitter of the future. He's 18 in the ACL. I worry Twins wouldn't know how to help him. But Quintero is the man, and then they should get the best pitcher they can. If that's Ferris, fine. Rushing would be a slug of mediocrity.