twinstalker

Dodgers officials are tripping all over themselves to see if you have any power to make deals. This would be just about the worst deal in Twins history.

Rushing is not a high upside hitter. I'm amazed people want players who don't project to be much of anything. Rushing and Cub Owen Caissie are the two prime examples. Don't get fooled by the minor league stats. Use them. For Rushing the biggest indicator is the one tough park in the Dodgers system: Great Lakes in the Midwest League. Rushing was 22, in some ways old for the level prospect-wise, but he was following the same path the Twins have been mostly setting forth for their college prospects. Spend the draft season at low A, then spend the first part of the next year at A+. Except he couldn't get out of A+ (like DeBarge and Schobel). At A+ Rushing had a K rate of close to 25%. At age 22. As a catcher. And he didn't get promoted. For comparison, Kaelen Culpepper was at 16%. This is important. My current analysis has KC as similar to or slightly better major leaguer than Brooks Lee. Rushing, for me, projects as much less than Lee. Strikeout rate isn't all that variable, though the ballpark can affect it. Great hitting parks are great hitting in part because they're not conducive to strikeouts for whatever reason (mound, foul territory). And the PCL is a whole league of that. So Rushing's K rate is too high for his age/level/park. K-rate comparison (they all are born within weeks of each other, relative to draft year) Player A+ AA AAA Rushing 24.3 (22y) 20.7 (23y) 20.1 (23y) (22.0 in repeat age 24) Lee 15.8 (21y) 15.9 (22y) 16.7 (22y) (14.0 in repeat age 23) Culpepper 16.2 (22y) 14.9 (22y) tbd There is no greater predictor of success than a combination of age/level/K-rate, assuming a baseline of a quality slash line. Rushing is at best a mediocre player at the MLB level. The slash lines for each are not really worthy of mention, other than Rushing's A+ being disturbing (.228/.404/.452) and a bit intriguing with an ISO of .224. Extremely high walk rates, though, are actually negative indicators. Also, Caissie's K rates are so bad, he's not worth mentioning, unless it's in reference to a race with EmRod to see who gets dumped first by their team. Looking at slash lines is valuable if you account for K-rate and adjust for age, level, and park. These don't only knock down Rushing considerably, they also knock down Culpepper and Lee, though Lee at this point in the analysis has some age advantage (not much on Culpepper). Finally, I've never considered Rushing a real catcher, but he's playing there for now, so I don't know what happens there. Reports are not great.

My analysis on him was he'd be a second division starter (bottom 15). That was based partially on his hitting stats and age at two hitters' parks in Wichita and St. Paul. He also had a good K rate. Currently he's still learning MLB and will be an okay player when he does. My guess is that, barring injury, he can be a .275/.340/.410 player in some seasons. While he's not going to get you excited, he'll be steady and put the ball in play. He's the last thing the Twns need to worry about going forward. He'll just play where needed and do it decently. Kaelen Culpepper offers a similar, if more exciting due to health and athleticism, profile. If KC carries his slash line through the rest of his AA season, it might portend a better hitter, but Lee had 300 more PAs at AA to even out his numbers. Both are/were at Wichita at the same age.

This is true. You could add Correa and Larnarch in there as super disappointing. Buxton, Castro, Jeffers have done well, no one else, maybe Bader, I guess.

Yeah, the article is on point. If not for last year, though, I might have more of an argument against it. He's definitely BABIP dependent, which is okay if your BABIP is consistently high and you don't strikeout much. Wade Boggs! That means line drives with high exit velocities. What can affect the ability to output that consistently? A lot. Minor injury, stance, trying to get more lift, not seeing the ball as well, facing better command (hello, Jose Miranda). So I don't know what happened last year, but I suspect the Twins had plans to build his hit tool into a hit/power tool. FYI, I follow all prospects in all orgs, and Seattle's low A (Modesto?) is a huge hit factory. All their good and decent prospects crush there then struggle thereafter, comparatively, so that does explain some, I think. Also recognize that Wichita and St. Paul are hitters paradises, too. I rank Gonzalez high among Twins hitting prospects, but I shake my head every time I do, because it's not really that I believe for sure he'll make it. Twins hitting is just really bad, with only really Jenkins and Keaschall any good. Culpepper has a chance, but he's older than Gonzalez and doing less, sort of. EmRod, not really. The only reason I keep EmRod in the top 10 Twins is the power and a few unknowns. Don't get fooled by Wichita stats...or St. Paul stats, and be very cognizant of age and K rate.

Why are there so few options to replace the current top 20 guys?

It's not really going to matter. I would love the Twins to trade him. As for CF future, this is the return the Twins need to get in trade. I've mentioned AJ Ewing (for Coloumbe) and Eduardo Quintero (for Jax or Duran) as main pieces in deals. Both centerfielders ready in three years.

Kemp has an age vs level problem. Trust me, these don't generally go well. Even older than his competition (which, without special circumstances, is bad) he strikes out at a 23.2% rate in the minors. If he were 22 yrs old right now, that might not be a big deal. He turns 26 in a few weeks. Generally we've spent most of our lives as stupid fans. We hear about a guy with an .844 OPS in the minors, and we cross our fingers that the Twins know what they're doing. But really we can now tell this right off the bat. The formula is there, for hitters anyway. Most importantly, he's too old for a prospect. He can't quite figure out how to make contact. Even in ABS patrolled AAA, he strikes out at 25% at an old 25 yr old. He does appear to have some power, but unless we're getting the next Nelson Cruz, which I'm pretty sure he's not, there are red flags. There are over 4,000 prospects out there. Very, very few are good enough to really help a major league team eventually. However, there are a LOT of players who put together a hitting slash line that looks good if we don't know how to look beyond it. The key is being able to distinguish between good/great slashes that project and those that don't project. And the ability to do that is knowing what truly is important on the periphery. Age is huge, age vs level is huge, K-rate vs age vs level is huge and also depends on things like college draftee vs HS draftee vs Int'l signee, not to mention the parks and leagues a prospect plays in. No to Kemp as anything but a throw-in.

I have zero confidence the Twins understand anything about hitters or hitting.

Why? Dodgers would love to trade Rushing. Rushing is an old non-catching prospect who has benefited from the Dodger minor league parks. The one park that isn't a bandbox or in a bandbox league, he batted .228 and was incredibly passive at the plate. A seriously overrated prospect who's already in the process of moving off catcher. Ferris walks too many, doesn't strike out enough for the walks, etc. He's a far better get than Rushing, but I don't want Ferris as the main piece. They need to get Eduardo Quintero, a fantastic CF who's ready for A+ ball. There's also Emil Morales, who strikes out way too much right now but is an OF power hitter of the future. He's 18 in the ACL. I worry Twins wouldn't know how to help him. But Quintero is the man, and then they should get the best pitcher they can. If that's Ferris, fine. Rushing would be a slug of mediocrity.

I was going to mention this and wondered whether the birth year is correct. In the '70s even a young kid in Iowa was aware that Tony-O was actually Pedro and older than his listed age. Actually, I thought his "nickname" was Pedro to explain why people called him that. So is 1938 correct or is it even prior to that? I know 1938 puts him at 25/26 for his ROY season. Ah, here it is from Wikipedia: Due to a paperwork switch at Oliva's arrival in the US to reflect the name and birthdate of his younger brother Pedro Jr. (born 1941) in order to appear younger to major league scouts, many newspapers reported the 21-year-old Tony as his 18-year-old sibling.[5][7] The name stuck and Oliva officially changed his name to Tony Pedro Oliva in the late 1990s.

You mention the ones who haven't developed, but what about the others? Cavaco, Sabato, Miller, DeBarge? The Twins can still pride themselves they took and developed them.

I would take AJ Ewing for Coloumbe. He's a lh-hitting CF at A+ Brooklyn right now, doesn't have much power but the hit tool is okay, and he is 55 and 7 on the bases this year. His K rate is a little high for his profile (19.3%), but his walk rate isn't too high at 14.2%, it's the upper end of the good range, edging toward passive. He's over a year younger than Kyle DeBarge at the same level and has CF skills. MLB.com has him ranked 26th in the system after last year, and it doesn't appear to be updated. My guess is that he's closer to the top 10 now. His A+ slash is .287/.396/.387. His K rate this year at A+ is down a ton from the 29.1% he had at low A last year, and that's what makes him a prospect. Turns 21 in August.

You can't just say you want to be like TB and Cleveland, you have to also have the smarts to make the decisions they make, and you have to have the same level of development. Having 1-2 from those organizations in your own doesn't make you as smart as the guys they weren't ready to let go to a team like Minnesota.

I don't see anything special in Long, but I don't see any glaring weaknesses either (though from the report I understand speed and defense are not good). Also, he had a really bad Cape Cod in 2022 (33% K rate) that doesn't really fit with most of his minor league level/seasons, so I don't really get that. Coloumbe for Long is correct for three years ago when less teams thought they had a chance. Now it's not enough for Coloumbe. Maybe if the Cubs add a 2023 Zebby-type. That's if Coloumbe is healthy, but... The other thing to consider in a Coloumbe trade is that Coloumbe might not pass a physical. So maybe it's something like Long and PTBNL where the unknown depends on appearances or days on the roster.

Clemens is a semi-platoon/PH type. He's 29. That he's this important to the Twins tells you all you need to know about where Twins hitting is at. If he plays much, it's sad for Twins fans, though it probably doesn't matter. It means the organization is at a place where it doesn't have true starters, which we know is the case. But that's the deal. If he plays more, it's not going to help his stats. If he comes close to maintaining his slash, he will be on a team next year, probably without the risk of being DFA'd like he was this year. As far as being a Twin next year, I guess it represents a floor for his positions.

Manfred said just about nothing. Read it again. Rob Manfred says bidders to buy Twins backed off when it became evident Justin Ishbia was "the leader in the clubhouse," but now that he’s out, Manfred is "confident that a transaction will take place." The "presumably soon" is thrown in there by Miller. What Manfred actually said is what we've been told before and know already. Twins are leaking that to us, and saying the same thing to Manfred. Nothing mean nothing, so to speak. Twins are valued at, generously, 1.6 billion (not including debt) and have 450 million in debt. Who's going to pay that much? Even if a candidate gets lower interest on the debt from MLB, it's still not worth it to give the Pohlads 1.7 billion or even 1.6 million and take on that debt.

This is what I noticed about the draft, too, They actually are investing in real pitchers rather than more or less longshots. I thought they should have done that in round 2, as well. Take a hitter in round 1 who needs the least help and development (because you aren't developing hitting), then take the best looking pitchers you can. Lean into your strengths. I thought they did poorly with their first pick and second rd pick, the hitters. The pitchers in rds 1 and 3 seem like better candidates than they've drafted before for their college development projects. I have fewer opinions on the day 2 pitchers, but I sort of trust they know what they're looking for there. I can't say the same for any hitter they draft.

I was a little surprised he did so well in round 1. I was afraid it was going to go like Round 2 did. He'll forever have Round 1 to look back on and so not be embarrassed by his performance. Now let's forget this ever happened, it has nothing to do with anything, except maybe screwing up your swing or getting hurt.

Take any player. I'm willing to bet you can find a 3 game period that was "crazy!!" It's just fun with numbers. Ferrer's been a disappointment. His college numbers indicated he should be better than he's doing right now. Meanwhile DeBarge is more tanking than he is hot. His July numbers: .250/.283/.318, and he's .211/.301/.328 since early June. He's turned out to be just what I feared. He's not young for his level as a prospect. He's 22 (today!) playing at A+, and he was a first round pick (a terrible one, I said). I can't believe I backtracked a little on that opinion this spring. My first impression of Marek Houston was Kyle DeBarge (the one that was a terrible pick) with a better glove for shortstop. We'll see. Finally, Raya. Definitely deserving of Hot Sheet inclusion. Good for him. He'll have some stories to tell his grandkids about a small stretch he had in AAA before he moved to relief.

Yeah, I'm wondering if they won't move a pick behind the plate. Personally, I have a bias against catchers because unless you find a magical one, you might as well take one off the scrap heap. Twins found Mauer, Ramos, and Jeffers. I agree with the philosophy of not wasting good picks on catching if the kid's not special. Wait for a different year. It would have been interesting if Bodine or Stevenson had fallen to them at 36. It would be nice, even for one year, if St. Louis would take over our international scouting in the catcher department.

Are you suggesting we put Lee at catcher?

20 to 80 on talent relative to slot Houston 30 Quick 65 Young 35 Ellwanger 65 In my limited (to 30-40 players) knowledge, I'd have taken at least 6-10? guys on the board (including Quick) before I took Houston. The top three being Cunningham, Irish, Neyens. I would have taken Quick, I think, at 36. I would have passed on Young. Twins development hasn't been able to help Cavaco, Sabato, Winokur, and others targeted "sluggers." I don't know why anyone would expect them to help Young. On the flip side, Twins know what they're doing in pitching development, and they know who to target. I'm not sure this FO has drafted a college pitcher as high as either of these guys (edit: Canterino, Prielipp), so it will be fun to see what they can do with a more talented sort.

There are still a lot of directions this could go, but I hold a ton more hope for him now than I did for him on draft day 2024. There are some indicators I hold in my bag that are blinking green at this point. His combo of walk rate (not too low, not too high) and strikeout rate are perfect (see Luke Keaschall, Brooks Lee) and indicate he'll be a major leaguer and probably be a tough out. A couple of weeks ago, after he had 9 games at AA, I mentioned that if he reduced his 20% AA K rate to 16% by the end of the AA season, he would show himself to be a major leaguer. After seven more games, he's already at 15.6% in 16 AA games. Keaschall, while eight months younger at the time, had a K rate of 19.1% at AA, Lee was both the same age and had the same K rate at AA. The interesting part right now in the Culpepper vs Lee comparison is that Culpepper has a better slash, likely due in part to SSS plus other sources of variation, But it's fair to wonder if Culpepper is a better hitter than Lee. I didn't imagine that scenario. I think at this point the probability of Culpepper being a complete flop is low. He appears to have a major league future, at a minimum, as opposed to a Jose Miranda situation or Edouard Julien situation or worse. Anything is possible, but I'd bet against him having that sort of failure.

If he has any integrity, he will. These picks are not made with fingers crossed. The Twins would have checked on the signing parameters and $$$ before taking him, perhaps or probably in the last minutes. If somehow there becomes a bidding war, you just let him go to LSU, because you've gotten all the info you need about who he is.