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The problem with signing decline phase players to multiyear contracts is that their best year going forward will be this year. By the time the Twins have a core ready to move forward, the Twins will be committed to guys in decline. The Royals gambled that this was the year their core would move forward. They have committed three years to Jeremy Guthrie. In 2015, when Hosmer, Moustakis and Perez will finally be reaching their primes, they will be paying Guthrie 9 million dollars. He will have declined further, but it is too much money for a small market or even a midmarket team to discard. It just keeps the team in a cycle of mediocrity.

Norris is 28, earning 3 million and arbitration eligible. His k/9 rate has dropped from 8.8 to 6.4. It might take a couple guys outside the top 100 like Rosario and Berrios. I wouldn't do it unless he was the piece the Twins needed to put them in the playoffs. The Marlins might listen to offers for Fernandez if the Twins offered Buxton or Sano. Neither would be enough.

I guess it depends on what list you look at for Lee making him at least a fringe top 100. I know he is repeating AA, but he hit AA at age 20 and did just OK last year. Not too many 20 year olds dominate AA. Sano isn't yet. I would take Lee for Perkins straight up. I don't think the Dodgers would do it.

I hope Burton's struggles are over. He was over used pitching 12 times in a three week stretch at the end of May. That lead to a string of poor outings in June. He hasn't given up a run in his last 6 outings. Those were lower leverage outings, but you still need to make pitches and get guys out. Fien has given the Twins reason to be confident in using him in high leverage situations. Hopefully, they will be able to mix both in the higher leverage late inning situations and keep both effective.

Thanks for the great article. In talking about defense, the first thing that Jake Mauer commented on was his ability to receive the ball and particularly the low pitch. The second was calling the game. I found that encouraging. Those skills are so much more critical than throwing out runners trying to steal or even blocking a wild pitch. If it was first in his mind, it must be a priority I training catchers as they come through the system.

Everyone agrees that Perkins is a valuable player. He is valuable if he remains and he is valuable in trade. The real question is what is the bottom level return they should seek. For me it is a single top prospect starting pitcher or shortstop. One really good prospect. I don't know how you level that out to multiple players. Are two top 250 guys better than one top 100 guy? Maybe, but I think the Twins don't need depth as much as they need top talent so I want them to seek the one guy as the did in the Span deal. As I have written before that level of return is probably beyond what should be expected for a reliever. That doesn't matter. Just keep Perkins if you don't get that deal this summer. What is your bottom line return?

I replied and you didn't accept it. I put up the best 5 relievers that have been traded in the previous three years and you had valid reasons to reject all 5 as not being perfect matches for Perkins. They weren't perfect matches. There is never a perfect comp. I then looked at it another way. I looked at what it took to get a top starting pitching prospect. It turns out it took a good major league starting pitcher or very good hitter. What value is there at doing this dance again? Let it go. We disagree. No one will be happier than I am if we get a Grienke, Sanchez or Beltran level of return. It just has happened in the last several years for a reliever.

Lots of stats don't mean much in samples of a half year. Defensive Runs Saved has been shown to be more stable than batting average and ERA and less stable than OPS. How Well Do Advanced Defensive Statistics Correlate? | Articles | Bill James Online While there is good reason to be aware of the context of any set of data, some of the defensive metrics have advanced to the point where it is critical the Twins are paying attention.

We couldn't force him to sign a cheap contract extension. Why would he? In his mind I am sure he thought he would turn it around in the second half and get a good contract. There would be no motivation to sign that kind of extension. The options available to the Twins last July were to trade him or retain him with hopes that he would pitch well enough to merit a qualifying offer. The Twins correctly assessed that he would not be worth a qualifying offer and traded him. They traded him and received a return in line with rental pitchers performing at his 2012 level. I don't see how extending him cheaply could ever have been an option.

No. Sign old guys and they will be declining in the second and third year of their contracts while the younger guys improve and the Twins stay mediocre.

It is very difficult to get a top starting pitching prospect like Webster or Lee. Some have gone over the summer in the last few years but it has been for starting pitching like Sanchez or middle of the order hitters like Beltran. Relievers have not seen that kind of return. I am not saying Ryan can't pull it off. It just shouldn't be expected.

Rosario just moved to AA. Hopefully they will keep him in AAA most of next year. He needs to be solid with the glove. He is certain to struggle at the plate as he transitions to the majors. He doesn't need to compound that with struggle in the field.

They can sign any of those guys to a one year contract. It isn't the time to go multiple years only to have that guy injured when the team is ready to compete. There are a lot of innings and injuries on those arms.

Wasn't last year supposed to be the deepest group of free agent pitchers in several years?

Ryan went the right way about fixing the rotation long term in acquiring young pitchers in Meyer, May and Worley. Hopefully he will add another this summer.

Saunders was the pitcher the Twins offered more money but he went to Seattle. The Twins also made an offer to Liriano, but it is easy to understand why he would want a fresh start in the NL. The pitchers Ryan had sights on certainly are doing better than the ones I had hoped for in Baker, Jackson and Marcum.

The Twins would be fortunate to get Webster or Barnes as the only piece. Ranaudo has had more ups and downs. Right now the Twins would be buying high. Maybe he has figured it out his second time through AA. He might be the kind of return a reliever can get. If the Twins go his direction, they will need to see him and also seek video from when he was struggling.

I agree.

These guys are beyond the comps, but would you trade straight up for either Zach Lee or Allen Webster? I think either of those guys would be overpaying based on the market the last three years. Reading the suggestions in these pages almost guarantees that the return will be a disappointment.

Should the Twins trade Perkins for Webster straight up? That would be better return than any other reliever has seen in the last three summers. I am not sure the Red Sox would make the deal, but maybe his small sample poor trial at the major league level may have lowered his status in their view.

Rosario started this season in Hi A. Arcia, Hicks and Parmelee have shown how difficult it is to transition to major league pitching. Rosario will benefit from the rest of the season in AA this year and a good stay in AAA next year. Meanwhile Keep Dozier at 2B.

One describes where they need to work. It shows confidence they will improve. The other is only derogatory. How would it help Arcia?

Those are the best returns for relievers moved midseason in the last three years. Perkins merits the top end of those deals. Many trades suggested on these pages are better than a Grienke level deal (a 55 and another guy that would be a top 10 in most organizations). There is little chance Ryan can come out of this looking good. He could get a better return for a reliever than any GM in the last three years and it won't be enough. He could keep Perkins and be blasted for not trading him at his peak. Anyone would take a Segura and Hellweg for Perkins. Is it a reasonable expectation that any reliever would comp with a #1 starter? It is possible and if Ryan gets a chance he will take that deal. The hard decision comes when the deal is closer to the the market rate for relievers the last three years.

To add or counter Dave Cameron's article, a look at all closer age 30 for 1991-2010. There 32 closers in the 20 year span. many effective closers stayed effective. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/lv?key=0Apr9y6uWjOUKdGxlNzJJRXQzTGx6WDVfLWp0a2JBcmc Cameron looked at if differently in his take. Only looking at 2010 gives a very different group. You get young closers that haven't shown they can stay healthy with the workload. You get guys who haven't proven they will be effective in the closer role. Will he remain effective? Perkins has shown that he can pitch very effectively given this workload. Effective pitchers in this list remained effective through age 33. What about an injury? Yes, there were some injuries. The number of injuries was smaller than when I did a similar look at set up man.Let's assume there is a 20-25% chance that Perkins will lose a significant chunk of one of the next three seasons. Isn't it just as likely that a top 100 starting pitching prospect would miss significant time to injury in the next 3 years? What value can you get for a closer or very effective reliever? Most recent comps might include trades for Matt Capps, Jonathan Broxton, Mike Adams, Koji Uehara and Brandon League. Those are the best of the relievers that moved in the summer. The Uehara deal worked out great. Should we take a failed prospect? How often to guys like Davis turn it around? Would we take a Ramos a top 100 prospect having a bad half season a AAA? You will recall his OPS at the time was .625. The ceiling for any trade last year was probably Grienke. His return was a #55 prospect in Jean Segura and two other guys. Hellweg would have been in the top 200. It would be a steal if a reliever could match a Grienke level return. The Twins would absolutely do this trade. That level is probably not attainable. Where does Ryan set the line for Perkins?

He will do less damage in RF than he does at catcher.