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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    source?
  2. jorgenswest
    Paying his salary doesn't make him a better hitter. I don't think it is his salary that makes Morneau hard to move.
  3. jorgenswest
    The Yankees and Rays play poor hitting catchers who are very good at framing pitches. Butera is at best average at framing pitches. He has very good pop to pop times on his throws. Those teams that value defense at catcher would start him over Doumit, but that doesn't make him elite. He is just way better than Doumit behind the plate. Neither guy would play catcher for a good team.
  4. jorgenswest
    He is under Twins control until 2019. At that point he will be 35.
  5. jorgenswest
    Butera's pop to pop time throwing out runners is very good. His numbers in pitch framing have been average at best. In his weekly show, Gardenhire praised his ability to go out to the mound and get Diamond back on track. Does he see something mechanical to adjust or is he just getting him refocused? Not sure. It is a skill that would be difficult to measure. If a catcher has influence on anything that could be measured it would be the defense independent stats like strike outs and walks. In 2012, Twin pitchers had a better K/BB ratio with Butera (2.53). Doumit was 1.67. In that sense, Doumit makes him look elite.
  6. jorgenswest
    OK. He can DH as long as they find someone to take Doumit. Neither should be in anything more than a Jim Thome role. The pitchers deserve and need better. As a DH, Thome earned 1.5 and 3 million with the Twins.
  7. jorgenswest
    So let him leave. There is a reasonable chance he will spend a significant part of next year injured. His skills are declining. He is a significant liability LF. His value is power and walks. However, the walks need to be discounted because he doesn't run well.
  8. jorgenswest
    Reasonable assessment. I think I agree, although Ryan will be blasted for not getting a top starting pitching prospect. They can probably get a prospect a little higher up in the ranks if it is a corner player and not a shortstop or starting pitcher.
  9. jorgenswest
    2013 ERA+ 96 2012 ERA+ 85 There has been improvement. The middle infield defense deserves much of the credit. I hope the plan is to move some of the other defensive liabilities before 2014.
  10. jorgenswest
    The value of a starting pitcher has always exceeded the value of a reliever. A number 3 starter will return more in trade than an elite closer. A number 2 will return far more.
  11. jorgenswest
    Let's assume that Ryan is not offered a top starting pitching prospect. Are you saying that Ryan should take the best offer on the table? If the best offer is a B starting pitcher (maybe a Trevor May), should he take it? Which is more likely? Perkins will remain valuable and effective the next three years or a guy like May will have a significant career as a starter under team control. Here is a list of all 30 year old closers since 1992. Many of those that were effective at 30 remained effective the next three years. It is no guarantee. Nor is it a guarantee that a fringe 100 starting pitching prospect will make an impact in the majors. I am not sure which side I stand in this case. A guy like May may not make it as a starter but have a good career as a late inning reliever. On the other hand, maybe that deal or better is still available in the winter. Patience or take the best offer? I am not sure which is better. I am sure that Ryan will criticized whichever direction he selects.
  12. jorgenswest
    The best move they made last summer was holding the line on Span offers. When the Reds wouldn't come through with a top pitching prospect, they kept him and found one in the winter.
  13. jorgenswest
    The perception that the Twins play in a pitcher's park is probably incorrect. I think the perception of the Twins pitching is that is a bigger concern than the offense. That may not be true. The Twins overall pitching/defense is not good, but it has been better than the offense. From baseball reference: Team ERA+ 96 (21st) Team OPS+ 90 (25th) From fangraphs pitching WAR 7.5 (21st) batting WAR 5.8 (26th) The foundation of the Twins offense entering this season was mostly aging with a history of injuries. Spring projections for the Twins offense showed drops in production for several key players. The drop should have been expected. That is what happens when you sign old guys to multiyear contracts. They decline and have an increased likelihood of injury as they age.
  14. jorgenswest
    Great information and insight.
  15. jorgenswest
    Did you know that Target Field park factor for 2013 is 5th highest in baseball behind Coors Field, Wrigley Field, Rogers Centre and Comerica Park? 2013 MLB Park Factors - Runs - Major League Baseball - ESPN This year the runs factor is 1.108 or increases run production by 10.8%. Maybe it is just the partial season sample of 2013. Last year Target Field also had a park factor of over 1 at 1.044(10th). Home runs are below 1 this year but above 1 last year. Is Target Field still considered a pitcher's park? Should it be?
  16. jorgenswest
    Isn't the population biased when only those with a kwERA of a certain level are selected? I would suspect that any population of players performing at an elite level will always decline in future years. That happens due to regression. Cross also misses any players that might randomly have an off year but have better years in the remaining three. The other question has to be about innings pitched. Cross' selected population was all healthy. If you select any population of healthy players from any year and look at the next three years the number of innings pitched will decline. Players get injured. How did Cross factor that into his innings average? I think Cross' study shows that pitchers having a very good season tend to regress. It also shows that a group of healthy players in year 0 will not all remain healthy for each of the next three seasons. If Cross did the same study with the population of 30 year old closers (including pitchers who happen to be injured at age 30 but return in following years), would he find the same results. I suspect that he would find that some pitchers improve. Some guys that were injured get better. I think he would also find that closers who are effective at age 30 tend to remain effective through age 33.
  17. jorgenswest
    The Tigers were willing to give up a B- prospect (Sickels) to improve their closer spot. How much more is Perkins worth? It is hard to evaluate relievers. His WAR is 0.7 (fangraphs) better in more than half a season, so maybe a 0.5 WAR improvement. They both have 3 blown saves but Perkins has 6 more opportunities. Perkins value to the Twins is probably greater than his value to teams looking to improve their bullpens. The Tigers were able to acquire a good reliever for a guy that will probably never play in the major leagues.
  18. jorgenswest
    That would be a great deal for the Twins. They probably can't part with Matusz who has been very good in the bullpen from the left side. We could add Duensing, but they wouldn't see him as a very good replacement for Matusz.
  19. jorgenswest
    If they can trade him or a couple of C prospects do it. It's not a salary dump. Joe Mays, David Ortiz, Alexi Casilla, Nick Punto and Jason Bartlett were not organizational top 10 prospects when they acquired them. They were all at least useful major leaguers. The alternative is two months with nothing in return.
  20. jorgenswest
    As always, top quality reporting. Thanks.
  21. jorgenswest
    I don't know anything about the Nationals and how current analysis and research plays into their decision making. If they value ERA and WHIP over xFIP and K/BB ratio, I am sure they would flip Storen for Duensing. Doumit is a target to any team that is unaware or discounts the recent analysis on receiving the ball. Any team that gives it any weight at all in their decision making would not put Doumit behind the plate.
  22. jorgenswest
    Instead we are going to give three year contract to guys having a poor season but has a string of 4 OK starts. For his career, he is credited with 1 WAR per every 27 starts. That's a value of about 5 million a year if he stays healthy. He needs to not only show he is healthy, he needs to show he is better than his career numbers. He needs to show he can throw at least 7 innings in his good starts. It would be foolish to give him a multiyear contract. There will be enough 1 WAR pitchers available in the winter.
  23. jorgenswest
    The best predictor of future injury is previous injury history. Why commit long term based on a month of OK pitching? OK pitching might be a stretch as he has averaged less than 6 innings per start this month. What is the likelihood that Pelfrey will be effective and healthy in 2015? I wouldn't bet much money on it. I hope the Twins don't.
  24. jorgenswest
    Prospects should be below league average age. If you are league average age, you are old for a prospect. If he takes one step at a time from where he is now, he will be an old major league rookie at 25. At 21, you hope they are in high A. In Walker's case, he was a college guy drafted a year ago and starts older. Given his age and performance, the Twins probably should have moved him with Buxton. If he has a good first half in high A and moves to AA mid season next year, he will be on track. If he struggles in high A at 22, he probably isn't a good prospect.
  25. jorgenswest
    In the Aguilera trade they received one of the better starting pitching prospects in Frankie Rodriguez. He was BBAs #36 prospect and had been listed as high as 9 in an earlier season. Aguilera was a rental and the Twins resigned him as a free agent the following winter. Getting a top near major league ready starting pitching prospect for Perkins is what everyone is seeking. Those prospects don't always work out.
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