jorgenswest

Ryan could be wrong, but I think he sees it helping Parmelee and Arcia get untracked. It won't help the Twins in the next few weeks adding replacement level or worse players. The purpose seems more for the development than the record. I am not sure i agree it is the best for Arcia and Parmelee but I get the move.

Good move now. They need to get untracked. This move might be more difficult at the end of the month if Morneau and Doumit are gone.

Gardy said Escobar needs games and the others need swings because they aren't swinging well. I prefer he would say it that way than the way you suggested. They deserve better treatment from a manager.

Too bad Rochester doesn't play until Thursday. This is a good time since they need to be down 10 days before being recalled. The Twins won't play many games in those 10 days.

It was reported by Gardy on the post game show. Herrmann, Bernier and one other will join the Twins. Bernier needs tobe added to the 40, but I think Walters opened up a spot.

Do the Twins nontender Duensing given his age and arbitration status? He is making 1.3 million this year and that will certainly go up in arbitration.

Is this the Twins trading three guys to get three guys with one making it? The Twins are not going to get three guys for a single one of those guys. The comps aren't there. Last year, the return for Delabar was Eric Thames. The return for Mujica was Zack Cox. Cox has since been designated for assignment by the Marlins. He cleared waivers. Thames is in AAA trying to make it back as a 4th OF. Would that kind of return be adequate or would the Twins be better off keeping these guys?

One other thing in common for the Ray's and the A's. They have terrible attendance numbers in spite of success on the field. The poor attendance and revenue may force the need to trade when player hits arbitration. It might also be true that trading off good players every winter might hurt ticket sales. For the most part they also trade peak in the winter and not during the summer.

What teams sell players at their high points with reasonable contracts and control in the future? I don't think it will be a long list beyond the Rays. The Twins are probably loser to the top of that list than the bottom.

Great context. Let's hope it means better return. Did you seek any other years that appeared to be buyer heavy? It might be interesting to do a count of top 100 prospects changing hands compared to the numbers of buyers (needs definition) for each year. Probably too much labor. An alpha list of prospects rankings going back to at least 1990 is on baseball cube's site.

I assume I am the you... I asked a question and added info, you gave your answer. I don't know if the Twins should sign him. I don't know if his velocity will come ack following surgery. He was once effective. Is it worth the risk a little money in salary and a spot on the 40? The Twins could claim him and DFA him hoping to get him in their minor league system. It happened to Burnett a few times. Is it worth the trouble? Simply asking.

Jurrjens was designated for assignment by Baltimore. Would he be worth giving some starts? There is currently an open spot on the 40. Diamond can be optioned. I think the Twins would have control next year if he has a good second half. He is 27.

I believe my comment was that the return is never very good. The supply is also high in the summer. Many trades in the winter in the transaction database. Marginal returns unless you are a Mike Adams(summer) or Sean Marshall(winter). Some guys have moved in multiple winters like Melancon and Badenhop.

It is the same reason relievers don't get great return at the trade deadline. Every struggling team has a set up man to trade. Look at the trades for Ziegler, Mujica, Broxton and Delabar. Perkins with his performance sets himself aside. His return would be better. It would also be better in the winter.

Perkins, Plouffe and Fien all under control with reasonable contracts and young enough to be be effective for three more years. Lots of reason to keep them. No reason to trade them for what the market usually brings. The problem with trading in July is competing with a group of players that have expiring contracts or players with contracts to dump. It brings down the value of the others as teams in contention want to improve 2013 with the least impact on their farm system. Span and Revere were in a similar place. While the best offer last summer might have Sulbaran for Span, the better offer came in the winter. This is the time to trade Morneau and if possible Pelfrey. It is the time to trade the decline phase players like Willingham (hopefully August), Burton, Doumit and Correia. Listen to offers on the others, but stick to the value they would bring in the offseason. They will likely be a better team in 2014 and 2015 by keeping them.

I found two Terry Ryan trades that sent cash with the player Traded catcher A.J. Pierzynski and cash to the San Francisco Giants. Received pitchers Joe Nathan, Francisco Liriano, and Boof Bonser. Under the Rule 5 Draft, the Twins sent minor leaguer Jared Camp and cash to the Florida Marlins in exchange for Johan Santana.

They really need Perkins in the 8th. Get through the 8th and see where they stand.

How can they be in rebuilding mode with one of their oldest rosters in the last 15 years? Only 2010 was slightly older.

Did Gibson return about this time last year? Optimistic(that pitches well) timetable: AFL this fall. A year in AA/AAA next year with some innings limit. Ready to go in 2015 with the Twins.

The difficulty in trading set up men is that every struggling team has a pitcher in their pen pitching well. The supply brings down the value. Mike Adams brought back a couple of top 300 guys a few years ago, but he had just put up a string of 3.5 seasons and around 200 innings with an ERA under 2. The Twins don't have that in Burton or Fien. Last year set up men Broxton, Mujica, and Delabar were traded at the deadline. Broxton brought back JC Sulbaran (never a top 10 team prospect, but in the next 10) and Donnie Joseph. Mujica brought back Zack Cox (former top 100 since designated for assignment and outrighted to AA) Delabar brought back Eric Thames (major league 4th OF) Getting a Sulbaran and Joseph could be a great deal. Sulbaran was a C+ starting pitcher prospect and Joseph could turn into the next Fien or Burton. It is also likely that neither will have a significant major league career. Trying to turn around a falling former top 100 prospect like Cox could be worth the gamble. None of the three is likely to have the major league career of Burton or Fien. Some team will think there is enough upside in the return to take the risk. Will the Twins be that team? Should the Twins be that team? With Burton and Fien under control next year, I would would think there is more value in keeping them. If the Twins don't accept this level deal it won't be productive to hold out for more, the offering club will just find another team to take the offer. The supply is too large.

They did have at least one start where Hendriks and Hernandez both went 4 to 5. Hernandez is likely headed for a role of lefty out of the pen that can give you a few innings. It wouldn't hurt to give him that role for a few weeks in AAA.

I can't get past how few deadline trades net top prospects. There is always going to be rumors and speculation. Teams will always try to leak rumors to try to drive up the return. However, the reality of the trade deadline has been different for at least three years. Very few trades return top prospects. The top end comp for Correia might be a C+ prospect. Maybe Norris can get a return similar to Bedard going to Boston. If Ryan is able to get a Grienke return for Perkins, it will be a steal and unprecedented in the last several years for a reliever. Anyone would do that trade. There isn't need for debate. The real debate should be whether you trade Perkins in return for two guys that might range 6 to 12 in their organization or a 50-100 guy having an off year.

I have a different format for this one since so much has already been written about Perkins. Dave Schoenfield's article recommending the Twins trade Glen Perkins in [URL="http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/38037/another-reason-closers-are-overrated"]"Another Reason Closers are Overrated"[/URL]. I question whether he was asking the right questions. The questions should really be: What happens to closers in the following years? How many teams have the same closer? How effective can we expect Perkins to remain in the next 2-3 years? As the Twins consider trading Glenn Perkins, they need to assess the value he will bring in the next 3 seasons they have him under team control.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Using the years 1991-2010, I looked at the 32 pitchers in the closing role at age 30 and followed them through their age 33 season. The data was pulled with the help of Baseball Reference's Play Index; it is [URL="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Apr9y6uWjOUKdGxlNzJJRXQzTGx6WDVfLWp0a2JBcmc#gid=0"]here[/URL]. [TABLE="width: 250"] [TR] [TD]Age[/TD] [TD]Closers[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]30[/TD] [TD]32[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]31[/TD] [TD]22[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]32[/TD] [TD]20[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]33[/TD] [TD]18[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] At first that seems like a significant drop off. However, it isn't a fair assessment, either. Pitchers left the closing role for three reasons: 1- They were injured 2- They were ineffective closers 3- They changed roles and remained effective Taking the third category first, Ryan Dempster became an effective starting pitcher. Rafael Soriano spent a year as an effective set up man to Mariano Rivera. Had either been given the opportunity to close, he probably would have remained effective in that role. Category two next: other pitchers did not continue to close because they weren't good at it. Braden Looper and Danny Graves, for example. They should not be grouped with Glenn Perkins. In fact, there are several guys on the list that did the job and had saves for the year, but they were not effective and did not continue in that role. Schoenfield points to the oft changing team closer role as evidence that it is easy to find another closer. Couldn't it also be that teams are continuing to search for an effective closer? Category one: I think we need to count the pitchers who were effective but either did not play or became ineffective due to injury. [TABLE="width: 250"] [TR] [TD]Age[/TD] [TD]Loss to injury[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]30[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]31[/TD] [TD]5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]32[/TD] [TD]6[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]33[/TD] [TD]4[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Injured pitchers include John Franco (2 seasons), JJ Putz (3 seasons), Jeff Russell (1 season), Tom Gordon (2 seasons), Keith Foulke (2 seasons), Bryan Harvey (3 seasons), Bj Ryan (2 seasons). I really don't know where to put guys like Octavio Dotel, Jose Mesa and Heatcliff Slocumb. I think it was more of a role change for them. I don't think their teams viewed them as effective. It isn't that easy to find an effective closer. Players with a closer's workload seem to have a better chance of remaining healthy than set-up relievers. I looked at the continued health of set-up men last year as the Twins considered extending [URL="http://twinsdaily.com/blogs/jorgenswest/1968-burton-what-s-future-31-year-old-set-up-man.html"]Jared Burton.[/URL] It appears there is a good chance that Perkins will remain effective and healthy the next three years. It is probably greater than the likelihood of a #50 prospect having a significant major league career. His contract is very reasonable. His value to the Twins may be greater than the David Schoenfield article suggests. Earlier trade talk articles [URL="http://twinsdaily.com/blogs/jorgenswest/4031-trade-talk-brian-duensing.html"]Trade talk: Brian Duensing[/URL] [URL="http://twinsdaily.com/blogs/jorgenswest/4039-trade-talk-correia-pelfrey.html"]Trade Talk: Correia and Pelfrey[/URL] View full article

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