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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    I think there are teams that would not put Doumit behind the plate. The entire value of both players is their declining but still useful bat. They are league bottom defenders. They do not run well negating some of the positives from drawing extra walks. They have history of injuries. They actually might be easier to trade if the team did not have to take on next year's burden. The margin that their bat makes up for their defense is getting smaller.
  2. jorgenswest
    I would trade him also. His reliable health as a 4-5 starter has some value in the trade market.
  3. jorgenswest
    Excited to see Gibson, but he isn't going to play until Saturday? Why not call up an extra hitter or catcher for 4 games and bring up Gibson on Saturday? I know Ramirez left the rehab game with a recurrence of headaches so he isn't an option, but there are some other guys on the 40.
  4. jorgenswest
    Correia's top skill is health. There have been studies that suggest that the best indicator of future injuries is previous injuries in pitchers. With all of the injury trouble that the Twins have endured in the previous two seasons, signing a guy that has a better chance to be available to take the ball every fifth day has some value. It is not easy to find guys with a track record of a healthy arm.
  5. jorgenswest
    Most people liked the move of extending Doumit last summer. A few wrote about the certain decline and poor defense certain to decline also. They had a team control option in Parmelee and could have spent the same money or much less on back up catcher who can defend in the offseason. Now the Twins are committed to Doumit through 2014. He is playing in the field way too often. They don't get either Parmelee or Arcia the plate appearances to develop. Doumit is valuable in the role of DH/bench bat/emergency third catcher. If the Twins can't move him, they have to plan for him to have that role next year. The decision to extend him last summer may have been reasonable, but the way they choose to use him this year is not. The Twins must move Willingham or Doumit and plan the other to DH soon.
  6. jorgenswest
    There isn't enough sample to make a statement about any individual pitcher. Last year Fien allowed 44%.
  7. jorgenswest
    What evidence is there that Albers is clearly better than Hernandez? So much better that they would DFA a player? At this point there may be enough sample to look at strike out rate, walk rate, ground ball rate this year. I am not sure that the same threshold levels apply to minor league numbers. In any case, Albers really does not stand out this year or any year. His ground ball rate is below average. He isn't likely to have a good strike out rate in the majors. Does that sound like a good mix for success? He does have a good ERA in AAA this year. It isn't predictive of success at the major leagues.
  8. jorgenswest
    They will need a 5th starter again next Saturday. Hopefully, Hernandez will pitch well today and then be returned to the minors. They can add a bat for the week and plan on either Worley or Gibson next Saturday. Will Ramirez be ready by Tuesday? I don't get how the Twins were ignorant on this one. Who else on the 40 would start today? Do you mess with the 40 for one start? That would enable Albers who started the 18th. I think it might be a sign that we will see Gibson or Worley next Saturday. Otherwise they may have been more willing to add Albers.
  9. jorgenswest
    A team looking for a DH would be a good target. I looked at Willingham compared to team DH production. His wOBA is in the upper middle of the AL. That helps. However, much of his value comes from walks and his poor base running decreases the value of the walks a little. There are 4 teams getting DH production significantly less than Willingham. Fortunately, they are all contenders in the Rays, Yankees, Orioles and Tigers. Yankees- Travis Hafner is putting up Willingham like numbers. They would be a good platoon. Willingham could play left. However, the Yankees have Jeter returning who may need to DH some. They don't want to take on 2014 salary to stay under luxury tax. They really don't need another DH type. I would expect them to seek someone with an expiring contract. Tigers- Victor Martinez is DH. They probably will stick him and focus on the pen. Orioles- No real DH. They have rotated guys which may be their preference. They could be a target. Rays- Mostly Luke Scott. However, they just added Will Myers to the OF mix and have some more flexibility filling DH. Does it sound like a defense focused Rays type of deal? It doesn't look like a lot of demand from teams with a need at DH. The Orioles appear a good fit, but they can do a similar assessment of the demand.
  10. jorgenswest
    I think we need to start some other "Is it time to send down... " threads.
  11. jorgenswest
    FYI- He has 1 hit in June. They finally put him on the DL on June 20. Unfortunate for Joe. He needed the chance to get back to AAA and show he can hit over the course of the year to have a chance to make the Texas roster next year. If he doesn't get back and healthy, he is certain to be available next year. He will be out of options without any production in the three previous years.
  12. jorgenswest
    It is likely he signed with the Twins because they were willing to give three years. I hope the plan was to shift him to DH before the end of the contract.
  13. jorgenswest
    It seems like a good idea. However, I just went through all of the deals in the summer of 2011 and 2012. I didn't find a comp in a trade where a team added minor leaguers with the veteran in order to get better prospects. It may not just be the Twins way of doing trades. It appears to be everyone's way. At least, it appears to be the case in the summer where 25 and 40 man rosters are much less flexible.
  14. jorgenswest
    I am not sure Willingham's value was ever as high as many expected on this site. He has so much going against him with his age, injury history and poor defense in LF. He did have a great year with the bast last year. However, teams know how players decline. His wRC+ projections were between 114-120 slightly below his 2011 level and far below his season last year. He would probably be expected to decline slightly from that level next year. Those projections, available last winter, were not ever worth a significant prospect.
  15. jorgenswest
    Wow! A reasonable trade target post to start the trade deadline season. No words wasted on top prospects well beyond the value of those likely to be offered in trade.
  16. jorgenswest
    I suppose they need to play Doumit, Morneau and Willingham regularly to maximize any potential trade value. Sending Parmelee down to get regular at bats until a spot opens would be reasonable. Ideally that spot opens soon. At least one of Doumit or Willingham must be traded. The other needs to DH. Under no circumstances should either be on the team next year in anything other than a Jim Thome role. Their league bottom defense will only decline further.
  17. jorgenswest
    I can try to explain it. Quoted from this article "high stress, high pitch count innings can be really detrimental" Innings Pitched | Baseball Guys Gibson's best secondary pitch is the slider Too Many Sliders? | FanGraphs Baseball Major league batters are much better so... -Gibson will endure fewer high leverage/high pitch count innings in the minors. -Gibson can get more guys out with his fastball and will thrower fewer higher stress pitches like the slider over the course of a game.
  18. jorgenswest
    I am not sure how Liriano's performance this year is relevant. The only way the Twins could keep him under control for this year was to make him a qualifying offer. The contract he signed is evidence that his value was no where near the level of qualifying offer. The Twins traded two months of control for two C prospects. It is only those months that are relevant to the trade discussion. You might argue that they should have signed him as a free agent last winter, but that has nothing to do with Escobar and Hernandez.
  19. jorgenswest
    They need to learn as much as they can about Florimon this year. He is not a utility option. He either starts at SS or take him off the 40. Escobar's long term major league role will likely be similar to Carroll or Punto. He defends well at several positions. He is young enough to improve with the bat. I am not sure that Dozier hits well enough to start at 2B or defends well enough at SS to be a utility player. They need to learn as much as they can about Dozier. He either hits well enough to start at 2B or take him off the 40. There is no reason to give Carroll significant playing time. Given their age, the growth window is closing on Florimon and Dozier. If they don't show more in the second half, the Twins will need to fill both middle infield spots next winter.
  20. jorgenswest
    Lots of small sample discussion here. Hopefully the Twins aren't using stats in these size samples to make a decision. Evaluation of the coaches and staff at the games should carry much more weight. The whole season sample may be enough to look at strike out rate and ground ball/fly ball rate. It certainly isn't large enough to look at only a handful of starts. Any assessment of consistency can only be made by first hand observation. If there is concern about Gibson's innings and stress, AAA innings will be less stress on the arm than major league innings. Any pitcher is going to face more difficult higher pitch count innings against a major league lineup. The innings and longer outings in AAA will help to rebuild arm strength. Every decision about Gibson has to made with the plan for him to get 30 starts in 2014. Clearly time in the majors will help him be successful next year, but he doesn't need to be up yet.
  21. jorgenswest
    The Yankees need to stay under luxury tax for next year so they would not take on a 2014 contract. They did get creative in the Wells deal that may be a possibility. Somehow Angels have 2014 burden. I would be really surprised if they take Doumit. Jose Molina credits Girardi and the Yankees for his growth on framing pitches. They add catchers who do well in this area. I am not sure our guys with their current contracts and lack of defensive skill are a good fit.
  22. jorgenswest
    I am certain they would not be willing. This would be a steal for the Twins. Last year the Reds gave up a couple of C prospects for a guy they would use in the set up role in Broxton. They weren't willing to deal a top prospect for Span. It is hard to imagine that they would be willing to trade Stephenson to have Perkins in the set up role.
  23. jorgenswest
    Some need to be traded. I don't think any of them can get more than we got for Liriano. Maybe Burton. We might be able to buy prospects by sending cash with Willingham or Morneau. Plouffe probably has a better chance to be a useful major leaguer than anything we can get for him. I don't think Carroll has any value.
  24. jorgenswest
    I think I am on your side. The reason he is the only good trade chip is also very valuable to the team. They really would need to get a good prospect for him.
  25. jorgenswest
    If they are going to trade Burton at his highest value, they should do so soon. Deadline trades last summer for relievers. To White Sox: RP Brett Myers To Astros: P Matt Heidenreich, P Blair Walters To Dodgers: RP Brandon League To Mariners: OF Leon Landry, P Logan Bawcom To Reds: RP Jonathan Broxton To Royals: P JC Sulbaran, P Donnie Joseph To Cardinals: RP Edward Mujica To Marlins: 3B Zack Cox I am not sure if any of these are good comps for Burton, but it is what teams were willing to give up to bolster their bullpen.
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